Can the polls be trusted?


				
Get Glenn Live! On TheBlaze TV

With the first Presidential debate just a few days away, heavy scrutiny is being directed at the polls and the organizations that conduct and report on them. Many have been critical of the methodology behind the way many of these polls have been conducted. Stu even wrote his latest blog post analyzing a recent Bloomberg poll whose questions painted seemed to favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. The mainstream media has not reacted well to the criticism, with the New York Times’s David Carr penning a response to the accusations and Fox News’s Chris Wallace getting very defensive during a radio interview.

“You’re going to have to do your own homework,” Glenn warned the audience. “Just do your own homework on the press.  Be very, very, very careful.  And I say this about left and right.  I say this about libertarian and big government.  I say this about me.  You have to do your own homework.  You have to know who you believe.  But be very, very careful.”

“Don’t ever take somebody in the media, including mine, don’t ever take their word for it.  I know I try to do my best.  We do an awful lot of research.  We get it wrong sometimes.  We’ll correct it if we get it wrong.  But it is still also my research and my opinion.  You have to do your own.”

Glenn reminded listeners that recent polls showed only 8% of people trust the media, and there is a reason for that.

In response to the criticism’s, New York Times writer David Carr wrote:

In the last few days, conservatives have become agitated about Mitt Romney’s drop-off in the polls. So did they think the stumble was because of the ill-fated “47 percent” slip of the lip, or the hasty effort to gain a political edge after the death of an American ambassador in Libya, or more problematically, a campaign that can’t seem to stop pratfalling no matter what the news?

No, in their view, the mysterious drop can only be explained by the fact that the mainstream media have their collective liberal thumb on the scale, in terms of coverage and, more oddly, polling.

….

But the pushback goes beyond coverage. Now even the polls themselves are being impugned, with suggestions that they are skewed by left-leaning math. Various conservative bloggers and pundits have complained that a slew of polls showing gains by President Obama were guilty of “oversampling Democrats” and “confirmation bias.”

But Carr and The New York Times aren’t the only ones getting defensive about the bias accusations.
Fox News’s Chris Wallace was firing back at critics like Mike Gallagher who wondered if the polls were biased:
“Let me just say something. This criticism of the polls is craziness. I’ve done some research on this today, which is more than you’ve done. No self-respecting pollster in the country — including Fox, I might add — when they poll, they’re trying to find out things about people and to weigh it, they will weigh how many men, how many women, how many blacks, how many Hispanics, because that is immutable. But to ask someone what your political opinion is do you consider yourself a Republican or a Democrat, that changes all the time. So they don’t weight it to that. And the fact of the matter is, in 2010, when they asked what do you consider yourself, more people said they were Republicans. Now, more people are saying that they’re Democrats.”   
“Who’s asking polls to be weighted by political opinion?” Stu asked. “It’s not that.  We’re questioning the results of your polls.  We’re questioning is are ‑‑ yes, we understand how polls work.  You don’t call up somebody and say, ‘Well, we think there’s 47% people are voting for Mitt Romney.  Since we only got 45%, we should change it to 47%.’  No one’s saying that.  I understand the thing with, you know, you’re going to make it so if you only get 4% respondents are African‑American, you might want to raise that because we obviously know there are more than 4% African‑American.  The point, though, is that your sample keeps coming out with a more enthusiastic democratic voter base than in the 2008 election.  No one who’s followed anything.  Barack Obama had a 70% approval rating when he won that election.  No one believes that that is going to carry over to now.”
“It’s not that they should be manipulated or they should be weighted differently.  It’s that the samples are obviously flawed,” Stu said.
Glenn wondered why the media was crafting a narrative that made it look like Obama was favored to win over Romney.
“ So the narrative should be that it is tied, but it’s not.  It’s not.  The narrative is, ‘Mitt Romney’s in trouble.  Mitt Romney’s in trouble.  He’s in trouble.  He’s losing.  He’s losing.’  It’s tied,” Glenn said.
One reason they could be showing bias in the polls is to de-energize and depress Romney supporters. But could Obama supporters in the media also be setting up the opportunity to delegitimize a Romney win by claiming there was an error and the polls never showed Romney could win?
“I believe the more insidious reason is this:  If you know how George Soros always overthrows government ‑‑ and remember, he said the main obstacle to a just new world order is the United States of America.  That’s not Glenn saying ‘I think he meant…’  That is a quote from George Soros.  That’s when, quoting him again, he decided he needed to take on the United States of America.  He is looking for an overthrow.  He calls it a slow deleveraging and a slow decline, a managed decline of the United States of America.  And that’s what you’re getting, gang.  That’s what you’re getting at your bank account and inflation and everything else.  And he does it the same way.  He’s done it in five countries.  He’s done it the same way every time, and every time it happens around an election.  But it doesn’t happen before the election.  It happens after the election.  What does?  Riots in the street.  What are they saying?  ’The election was a fraud.”; His side always comes out and says, ‘It was fraud.  The poll numbers didn’t show that.  This was stacked.  He’s not legitimate.’  They are setting us up for fraud.  They are setting us up for 2000,” Glenn said.
“We won’t survive another 2000, and he knows it.  If you want to survive as a nation, forget about Mitt Romney and Barack Obama.  If you want to survive as a nation, get your ass out and vote for one of them.  Every single American should get out and vote for one of them.  It should be a landslide one way or another.  If it’s a landslide for Barack Obama, so be it.  So be it.  I don’t understand it, I don’t get it, I will not be a part of it.  But so be it.  That’s what the American people want.  The same thing with Mitt Romney.  If it’s a landslide, so be it.”
“Remember, Florida was won with, what, 536 votes?  All they have to do is convince 536 of you to stay home.  That’s it.  You think they can do that in the next four weeks?  You’re damn right they can.”
The media has already tried to paint Romney as out-of-touch, ruthless, racist, a tax dodger, and worse over the past few weeks. Would anyone be surprised if people were less than thrilled to go out and vote?
  • http://www.artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm snowleopard (cat folk gallery)

    For the majority of them, the answer is emphatically – NO.

    Consider the pattern of the last few years in regards to the public opinion of many things in the nation:

    The MSM is discredited and distrusted by most of America.
    The Congress is distrusted by most of America.
    The Courts are distrusted by most of America.
    The Government is distrusted by most of America.
    The Constitution is almost daily under assault by the admin.

    Society in and of itself has become polarized to an extent not seen for generations; and so the foundation for a crisis has been established. All that is needed is the appropriate nudge to cause it all to come down.

    Consider what happens if the election system is discredited to such a degree by mass fraud and intimidation and SCOTUS rulings, that most Americans no longer trust it to be valid or honest.

    We then have a fabricated Constitutional Crisis in which people will call out for the system to be changed – and in come the progressives with ‘I have the solution, just follow me (ignore the crown and cape of a czar I am wearing) and I will deal with it’

    Recall – Rome was once a Republic; the Senate sold out their freedom for the madness of their day to stop – and thus became enslaved to an Emperor.

  • http://www.artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm snowleopard (cat folk gallery)

    Can the polls be trusted? Nope.

  • http://youtu.be/ff8jDkOHp3U Sam Fisher

    Don’t trust the polls they are as fake as civil war vets voting for Obama. You can’t trust polls that have a leaning no matter left or right. I wonder who the 8% of the idiots who trust left wing media.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Susan.M.Bronersky.Spear Susan Michele Spear

    What you said today Glenn struck me to my very core because If this is the case and the Media and Soros and the rest of the minions are manufacturing the polls and they are setting us up for a fraudulent election ‘claim’ then they must also be preparing for chaos in the streets, hence the increase in military ops over major cities across the country. I have noticed an increase in videos on you tube that show military vehicles being transported by trains all across the country. It could be that they have always transported military vehicles this way, that could be the case. However, America is not like it use to be and I hope I do not sound like a lunatic but after watching these videos and the amount/type of military vehicles being transported it leaves me with an uneasy feeling in my gut. If you want to see these videos go to you tube and search ‘military tanks on trains 2012′. Maybe I am making more out of this than what it is, but with the way this Government likes to over step its bounds it’s unnerving an I do not trust my Government especially when my Government treats people who believe in freedom and the Constitution as extremists/terrorists and considers the enemies of Freedom ‘their’ friends and allies.

  • Anonymous

    Here’s a potential problem:
    If the polls keep showing Obama in the lead, but on voting day Romney comes out ahead there will be much blow back from the left as they will claim the vote was rigged. Is this a plan? Considering many towns have resident lists with voter registration information, it would not be difficult to come up with a polling list weighted one side or another. We have computers, nowadays.

  • Anonymous

    You are right on…I have been watching those videos also.yomamma will resort to anything to win. I read months ago that he plans to call marshal law if he is losing and have his people and unions riot in the street. It also said that then he would stop the election.yomamma is joined at the ‘hip’ with evil and lies.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tonia.ashworthhittson Tonia Ashworth Hittson

    No and Chris Wallace has been sounding like a spy for the liberals.

  • http://www.facebook.com/bill.hoidas Bill Hoidas

    Chris is usually pretty good but at times is utterly clueless. Its a fact that all of the liberal biased polls are weighted with the 2008 turnout. As a demonstration of how inaccurate this will be just compare the RNC which sold out a large venue compared to the dysfunctional family DNC which had to be moved to a smaller venue to avoid total embarrassment and still had empty seats most of the time despite paying and busing bodies in. Also look at the 2010 voter turnout.

  • Anonymous

    Time to get “in the zone.” Cut back to 10% of the news shows you previously viewed, including FoxNews; listen to either Beck, Limbaugh, Hannity, and/or Levin on radio; select 2-3 sites to check each day; and, cancel newspaper subscriptions and refuse to read any. You will rediscover your sanity and regain your positive attitude. I’ve followed this plan and it works!

  • http://www.facebook.com/bill.hoidas Bill Hoidas

    Incidentally obama can’t “stop the election” if he’s losing as the polls will be closed before any results are announced.

  • new2la

    Chris is definitly on the liberal side but, I often see this far away look he sometimes gets when even he has a problem believeing some of the lies being thrown out there by the left. I also think he truly finds it difficult to believe that the media is corrupt, since he himself may not be. The implications are astounding for a true journalist which I think he is, to believe that some of his colleagues are crooked.

  • Anonymous

    “Democrats for Romney”. We are ALL voting for Romney! There is nothing anybody can say to change that. We have to get that community organizer out of the white house via the jimmy Carter route.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/William-Svoboda/100001299330140 William Svoboda

    The Chicago crowd is manipulating all polling. They are putting out there that you may as well stay home as the election is already over as Obama has the support of 99.9999% of the voters. If anyone believe this I have a nice Bridge in Brooklyn I would like you to take a look at.

  • Matt Driscoll

    The MSM is discredited and distrusted by most of America.
    The Congress is distrusted by most of America.
    The Courts are distrusted by most of America.
    The Government is distrusted by most of America.
    The Constitution is almost daily under assault by the admin.

    I’m sorry but where are the facts to back any of these ridiculous claims up. You do not speak for America. Far from it in fact. You and your band of paranoid delusional nuts are a small faction in this country. If majority of the people do not trust main stream media then why do they continue to see ratings? Why is your messiah Glenn Beck reduced to pay per view internet shows? Please do some math and accept reality before you begin making insane claims.

  • Matt Driscoll

    Sorry but if all polls are saying roughly the same thing then they must have something right. That’s called common sense.

  • Matt Driscoll

    Glenn Beck obviously does not read the discussion board.

  • Matt Driscoll

    Haha. 1.) yomamma??? That’s clever and also vaguely racist. 2.) Where in the hell did you read this ridiculous “fact” from? Haha. You are crazy.

  • Matt Driscoll

    Not happening buddy. Sorry but he is going to win.

  • Guest

    Glenn is right. This is a set-up to discredit a Romney win and dudpend the election results with Obama claiming a breech ot the voting data base. He will then follow with Marchall Law.

  • Ernest Hemple

    Glenn is right. This is a set-up to discredit a Romney win and suspend
    the election results with Obama claiming a breech ot the voting data
    base. He will then follow with Marchall Law.

  • new2la

    It absolutely does work. I started that routine several years ago. It works best for those that aren’t certain who to vote for. . which I can’t imagine.

  • new2la

    The most dangerous thing is a losing democrat……they are capable of just about anything. It was recorded that sometime in the early 1800′s, one marched from the House of Rep. Building to the Senate and physically attacked a Senator.

  • new2la

    LOL!!!

  • new2la

    By their actions…..are you awake or not?

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_5HKRCUUTAJ3J4SZ6DXJIGCOBZI robert

    I find that I distrust the Polls, just like I have not trusted the So Called News Medial in 60 years. I found that I question and like Beck Said, question with boldness. I have done this all my like and many times I have been scolded or beaten down for questioning and I will keep on doing it the rest of my life.

  • skiermark

    That’s the problem-people who believe Beck, Limbaugh and Hannity without doing their own research. Do these guys tell half truths, partial truths, the truth sometimes and lies sometimes? Or course, do your own research and don’t be lazy and believe everything.

  • skiermark

    Funny how all of your sources are right wing nut jobs. Try looking at diverse sources (maybe some from other countries than this one).

  • new2la

    You mean like believing total untruths, The Obama way?

  • Anonymous

    Glenn is so right about doing your own research. Most voters do not know how to do the research needed in order to make a well informed decision on who will get their vote. Too many people get caught up in the excitement and the rhetoric put forth by the candidates in their slogans, speeches and what they say in debates. These tell you nothing about the people running for office. Candidates in both parties are just saying what they think the voters want to hear. As in all elections, this one is no different. All the candidates are making powerful speeches to convince you that you must vote for them. Do not be fooled by what the candidates, in both parties, say in their campaign speeches and debates. Those are just words and slogans. Edward R. Murrow said “Our major obligation is not to mistake slogans for solutions.” Actions speak louder than words. Research the candidates. That means doing a little work. That’s right. I said that four letter word “WORK.” Look at their past voting records, accomplishments, backgrounds, the issues they supported, activities they participated in, books they may have wrote and the organizations they joined. Those things can tell you quite a lot about the person. If you can read this you can do that research. The important thing is to get out and vote and try to encourage those who don’t vote to get off dead center and do so, or we could loose this republic the founding fathers started for us. Those who don’t vote deserve the government they get. I know, and meet, a lot of people who don’t vote and I can’t get over some the lame reasons. When ever I think I heard them all, someone always proves me wrong. They turn out to be the biggest crybabies about the people elected in office. I laugh at them and tell them that by not voting, they did just as much to put those people in office as the ones who voted for them. Apathy put Obama and all the Senators and Congressman in office and Apathy will keep them there. APATHY IS THE GREATEST THREAT TO OUR LIBERTIES AND FREEDOMS! NOT OBAMA.

  • Anonymous

    Once again, glenn ignores the reality that his fourth or fifth choice for President does not have a chance.

  • http://www.facebook.com/Susan.M.Bronersky.Spear Susan Michele Spear

    I cancelled cable t.v. a little over a year ago and it works, My family and I watch TheBlaze t.v. via roku and different online news sources it really helps us to stay focused without all the distractions that cable t.v. can bring

  • Anonymous

    With all the lies, manipulations and spinning, WHY would anyone believe anything regarding the polls or any other ‘messages’ put out by groups? I don’t trust people to tell the truth when participating in the polls and I don’t trust the ones analyzing the results; therefore, I don’t pay very much attention to the poll reports that are shown over and over again on t.v. I guess they have to have something to talk about.
    As for voting, we need someone who knows how to create jobs, has had experience in creating jobs and will work to create a climate for creating more job opportunites. Mr. Obama has not shown that he has what it takes to do it, nor has he surrounded himself with advisors who know how to do it. Why trust him to do any better in a second term? My vote goes to Romney/Ryan with a lot of hope that they will try to do what is necessary for the country to get back on track on several different levels. I’m hoping for change ….from the direction we have been going in the last almost four years.

  • Anonymous

    Can the polls be trusted? It depends on who is conducting them and to whom they are asking the questions. But to make a blanket answer, in a word: No.
    In two words: Hell, no!

  • Anonymous

    I Never Liked Polls, Polls Are Just Opinion.Wish There Weren’t Any Polls,Just Wait For The Election! For The Real People.Check You’re Own Facts,Like Glenn Always says! My news Is From Beck,Limbaugh,Levin! Everything Glenn Predicted Five Years Ago Came True! George (Nazi) Soros a slow managed decline for America like the five country financial he collapsed! we have pure EVIL Running The Country So Get Back To GOD To Save US!! God Will Bless America When America Blesses God…again!Know What You Believe! Vote You’re Conscience,Know Truth Know God,No Truth No God! Conservatives have a Conscience Liberals Use The Con of Science!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KFVPZJEDRJ4AGTEVX2G3H7QLYM greyfox

    The MSM wouldn’t recognize bias if it hit hem in the ass. To suggest that they aren’t biased is to believe the earth is flat.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_KFVPZJEDRJ4AGTEVX2G3H7QLYM greyfox

    Like Obama clung to the lie about the embassy killings being provoke by the you tube showing of Mohamed. And that is probably one of his lesser lies. Didn’t need to learn that from the “right wing” nu jobs. Heard it from Obamas own administration. Left wing nut jobs believe anything Obama tells them, how sad is that.

  • SoThere

    You should stay home on election day strtlk, Obama has it in the bag.

  • Thunder Lizard

    I’ve answered a couple of polls in past elections and remember that some of the questions seemed they could be skewed. In other words, how I answered could be interpreted either way. Once I pointed that to to the person conducting the poll and he said “Sir, you must answer the question based on the way it is written.” Since then I have declined to take any polls.

  • new2la

    Unless your people use Chicago tactics, ie fraud, Obama is going down; and hard! Not only that, He will face charges along with many of his cohorts and cronies. And further more, He may even face either life imprisonment or execution for crimes committed to our country.

  • http://www.facebook.com/andres.restrepo.393 Andres Restrepo

    Well prime example this whole 11 minute segment about polls. No where does bleck provide any proof of what he is saying. He only states that the polls are flawed but doesn’t give any proof of it. Furthermore, he claims the polls don’t work, but yet he claims as true a poll that says 8% of americans trust the news, so do we believe in polls or no?? what is glenn? and again where is the proof of how polls work, where is the scientific research done, just claiming you did research does not mean is true.

  • sara holy land

    Good luck !

  • new2la

    You poll 10 dems, You have a poll. Got it?

  • greywolfrs

    Except they are not all saying the same thing, dunce.

  • greywolfrs

    Hey stupid, maybe you should do some research. You complain that this person has no facts to base their claims on and you turn around and give no facts. You are a fucking moron. By the way, how does it feel to know that you helped Glenn get The Blaze on Dish network, I guess I just proved one of your stupid points wrong, this isn;t an internet show, without even trying. Jam your head a little further up your ass, maybe instead of just seeing and smelling it, you can taste it also. Dunce.

  • greywolfrs

    Hey, it’s sticky chin the coward. Yeah, Romney doesn’t have chance, maybe you shouldn’t go to the polls on Nov. 2, idiot.

  • greywolfrs

    Again, your crystal ball seems to be working great. Ask Carter how that worked out. Since you are so confident, no need to go to the polls on Nov. 2, dunce.

  • greywolfrs

    Yeah, look for more diverse sources, so she can listen to left wing nut jobs, like you.

  • SoThere

    Satan’s back.

  • Anonymous

    They don’t need to refer to a poll for that. In Washington state, Christine Gregoire won by around 120 votes. Pets, the dead, felons…they all voted democrat in the election. Every time that it looked like Dino Rossi was getting close, more votes were found in bathrooms, car trunks, hidden closets, etc.

    In King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, provisional votes (votes whose validity could not be confirmed by signature, people who were not actually registered to vote, etc) were supposed to be kept separate from the regular ballots. They were even a different color and their coding was supposed to keep them from being run through the digital tallying machines. “Someone” had reprogrammed the machines so that they would accept the provisional ballots, but all without any requirement for verification.

    Republicans sitting on the election committee reported witnessing provisional ballots being fed through the machines over and over and over again while the Democrat election committee members laughed. More than 18,000 illegitimate votes were counted, not including the provisional ballots, since there was no way to track how many of the votes came from those ballots.

    When this information was compiled and presented in court, the liberal judge that heard the case rejected it in spite of mountains of evidence. He didn’t review any of the evidence and he didn’t care. According to him, the reason that he decided to dismiss the case was because, to rule otherwise, would be contrary to the will of the people. In other words, it didn’t make a bit of difference to him that his ruling literally set aside the law because there were more dishonest, lying Democrats than honest ones, therefore, setting aside the law in favor of those who achieved an end through nefarious means, was laudable-an act of commendable “courage”.

    Al Franken, in his run for office, stated that he was going to take a page right out of Christine Greoire’s playbook in his election against a Republican incumbent. There were whole counties in Minnesota that voted overwhelmingly for him; counties that had voted previously overwhelmingly in favor of the incumbent. That’s not a problem. The problem is that some of those counties had more votes cast than population living in the county. There were votes “discovered” in car trunks, bathrooms, etc. See the pattern here? And how did he win? By judicial mandate that set aside all investigations, all evidence and the law itself.

    Polls are only one piece of the puzzle for a group that cares not a whit about the law, freedom, honesty, or constitutionally protected rights. To a liberal, there is absolutely nothing wrong with ANY methodology, honest or no, because it is not the method that is important. All methods can be legitimately justified because of the nobility of the END. To a liberal, the end ALWAYS justifies the means. To a liberal, a willingness to commit illegal acts, lie or whatever else is necessary in order to achieve a noble end, is an act of courage, not shame.

  • SoThere
  • SoThere

    What diverse sources are you left wing nut jobs getting your information from, Satan?

  • Anonymous

    AHA…I’m a democrat so I can tell you are a socialist. But I don’t vote ‘party’ I vote the person. I’ve been voting for 56 yrs and up on more than you’ll ever know.
    Get your left leaning head out of your b### and give it some air.

  • http://www.facebook.com/joe.downincognito Joe Downincognito

    nwo

  • Anonymous

    It is time for Soros to collapse like with an heart attack. Would love to see the announcement that this guy has passed away.

  • Anonymous

    You got that right, Bill. When in doubt, the pollsters will go with the way the “08 vote went and ”weight” their recent poll numbers in that direction. This was explained on one of the Fox programs several days ago. Can’t remember which one it was, though.

  • Alpha 1-1

    Well, if the entire population of the United States say Snooki was the first person to walk on the moon does it make it true?
    Just because a large group of people all say the same thing, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are saying the truth.

  • http://www.facebook.com/msweddingplanners Lynda Jones-Owings

    You will pass before he will.  You do not wish death on anyone….. Be careful what you wish for.