The Next Two Generations Will Achieve a Very Different American Dream

From my speech at Politicon on June 25, 2016 in Pasadena, CA. This post originally appeared on Medium.

If you were to write a letter that would be given to your grandchildren 30 or 40 years in the future, what would your message be? Looking at the world today, maybe you’d write a letter of apology: “I’m sorry we screwed up the environment and melted the ice caps.”

Maybe you’d write a letter of warning: “Hey, watch out for Islam,” or “Stay away from gluten, sugar, meat, fluoride and sitting. (Oh, and Matthew McConaughey movies.)”

If your grandparents had written you a letter before you were born, what would they have told you?

• “Watch out for Communism.”

• “Stay away from drugs and rock ‘n roll.”

• “Make love, not war.”

• “If anyone offers you the chance to wear bell-bottom jeans, the answer is no!”

I would have loved for my grandparents to write me a letter. Even though the issues of their day included the Cold War, hippies, drugs and Communism, that would have been an empty letter because that’s not who they were. I think they would have told me about the life lessons they had learned — the things they found true, what they lived by, what got them through.

RELATED: A Letter to My Grandchildren: My Legacy to Them

Life is all about principles. We all change, but life is about principles. That’s what I wished they had told me.

Let’s take the Woodstock generation. Their message was: “Don’t trust anybody over the age of 30.” Why? Because those people had sold their souls for power and money — for a suit or a job — and they didn’t want to become that.

Now, our nation is being ruled by members of that Woodstock generation. Have they held true to their principles? If they had written a letter to themselves back then, would they be ashamed of who they have become? Have they created the authentic world they advocated — with love, no greed, no war?

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A group of people listen to music at Woodstock Music and Arts Fair in August 1969. (Three Lions/Getty Images)

That Woodstock generation is now about 70 years old — Clinton, Trump, Sanders. Would they have pointed to their future selves and said, “Yeah I can trust that guy.” I don’t think so. I think they’d be doing sit-ins and marches every day. What legacy did they leave us?

Pew Research released a study last week, which found 70% of Democrats feel fear when they think about Republicans. A decade ago, only about 20% of voters felt the other party was a danger to the country. Today, it’s 60% overall.

What happened to us?

Certainly the Woodstock generation wouldn’t have wanted this much anger and distrust among their grandchildren. It’s an interesting space to be in — one I have been in for years.

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Revelers attend 40th Anniversary of Woodstock Music Festival on August 14, 2009 in Bethel, New York. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

For instance, how many people believe I am opposed to gay marriage being legal in this country? How many would be surprised to know I consider Anderson Cooper to be an honest journalist and happily count him among my friends?

This dilemma is now affecting all of us. Do you feel comfortable giving yourself the label of Democrat or Republican? How many people consider themselves Independent?

Do the issues of our day — the ones you hear in the media — do they define your focus? Do they define you?

• Income inequality

• Transgender bathrooms

• Cyber bullying

• Islamic terror

• Gun crime

Do these issues play a role in your legacy? Are any of these who you are? Or are they like the message, “Watch out for Communists,” from my grandparents? Perhaps they play a role in your life — and they may indeed be very important to you — but do they define you?

Think ahead to the next 10, 20, 30 years — what do you see? Do you believe there will be a World War? A global financial collapse or depression? How about the cure for cancer? How about the Cubs winning the World Series? (Hope springs eternal...)

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A money exchange office worker poses with handfuls of Sterling notes and Euro notes on June 7, 2016 in Ireland. (PAUL FAITH/AFP/Getty Images)

Nobody knows if or when any of this is going to happen — and we could debate it all day long — but have you noticed the more important something is, the less we debate it?

A depression, a currency collapse, would affect all of us. Is anybody talking about it?

Do you believe you will never die?

There are people right now who are saying that by 2030, they will have conquered death — nobody will ever need to die again. Think about that one a little. What happens to Social Security then?

According to futurists like Ray Kurzweil, many of the people reading this may never die. Every generation prior to Gen Y has faced death as the inevitable conclusion to life, but Millennials may be the first to experience the ability to live, well, forever.

So we need to have some discussions.

Would you even want to live forever if you could? Your consciousness, or your unique pattern, could be saved to a computer. Is that life? And, if it is, is there any value to the human body? Is any life worth fighting for if it can just always be patterned and stored on a thumb drive?

We could become the first species on earth for whom death becomes optional, and life is separate from the body.

Think about what that might mean for us as a culture, what it would mean for politics. Would war cease to exist? Hate? Racism? Fear? Or would they just get worse?

Will technology take us to utopia or the nightmare of science fiction? Will we let it? Should we let it?

What does it mean to be human? What motivates us — love, fear, hatred, revenge, greed, hunger, sex? What if I told you technology could take away many of those appetites.

Shouldn’t we be having these discussions?

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Attendees walk by image of Microsoft HoloLens augmented reality viewer during the 2016 Microsoft Build Developer Conference on March 30, 2016 in San Francisco, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Zuckerberg says that by 2050 sex will be virtual and procreation done in labs. We could be living in the Matrix. Is that life? Is that just living? Is that even reality or just illusion?

How can we connect with each other, especially when the media and politics is built entirely around driving us apart, and technology encourages us to text, even when we’re next to each other?

Listening to the news these days, regardless of the source, it’s becoming an exercise in degrees of hatred, judgment, fear and blame. This is the language and approach of the last generation and the ones previous to that. Meanwhile, politics is merely varying degrees of lying from both sides, and we just end up arguing over misdirection.

The next two generations to come of age will bear a great burden — one that is not a choice of their own making. It is a burden that, I am sad to say, was left by my generation and many of the generations that came before. But we have the opportunity to enter a new Golden age for humanity — especially in America.

Technology is rapidly advancing and has the power to fundamentally transform our civilization. How will we use it? The internet of everything will bring about the democratization of everything. And that means the destruction of the old institutions — from a place where the game is rigged to favor the elite to a place where any one person can literally change the world.

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People use Samsung Gear VR during the presentation of the new Samsung Galaxy S7 and Samsung Galaxy S7 edge on February 21, 2016 in Barcelona, Spain. (David Ramos/Getty Images)

Up until now the ability to survive, achieve status and pass on your DNA has been based on your ability to accumulate power. Who has the most wealth, land, oil, water?

The future is being shaped by those under thirty. They look at the concept of staying at a job for 40 years and getting a gold watch upon retirement as an embarrassment, not a badge of honor. They believe they can be the next Zuckerberg or Dorsey or Musk.

Now is the time of the straight line. Friction is being diminished. The path of less resistance is how real freedom, real power can be found. Soon, nothing will be as it was and everything will be as it has never been.

The last two generations tried to homogenize everything — gentrification. A Starbucks on every corner, GAP, Anne Taylor, CVS. U.S. retail (the big box stores like Macy’s) lost $400 million just in their clothing lines during Q1 this year.

The day of the mall is over. But so is the day of the automobile.

We think of GM as a car maker. But they aren’t, they are a bank. The money-making part of GM is GMAC. Forget about making a better car, the next generation doesn’t even want to own a car. You can share cars. So what happens to profits when people want to share cars? Even with Uber, someone needs to own a vehicle.

By 2030, human-driven cars will be a thing of the past, and it will be shared ownership of cars. We’ll be in a shared ownership community. The malls will be gone, taxis will be gone, Ubers will be gone, and cars will be made by robots.

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A self-driving Mercedes Benz F 015 stands at the Dam Square in Amsterdam on March 13, 2016. (BART MAAT/AFP/Getty Images)

By 2050, over 50% of current jobs won’t exist. Our world will be so vastly different. How do we get there without fascism, revolutions or an American Spring? We will get there by rediscovering:

• Sharing

• Listening to each other

• Protecting each other

• Empowering the individual — not the government or corporations

• Working together

• Individuality

• Live and let live

• Classic liberalism

Ah, but that is where we fall apart. I could say half of those things to Democrats and they would cheer. I could say the other half of them to Republicans and they would cheer. But the sovereignty of the individual is only possible with personal responsibility and mutual respect.

Sharing and cooperation only works if it is voluntary. By definition, cooperation cannot be coerced. It doesn’t come from laws or from the point of a gun.

Cooperation by force is called slavery.

The next generation is bringing authenticity back into vogue. Finding their own true selves and getting to live in peace while letting others live their authentic selves. This is the revolution the Woodstock generation said they believed in but never delivered. The younger generation and the ones that follow won’t be defined by structures and words. Technology enables this. It can change world from top-down to bottom-up.

The “old guard” is panicked about this.

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Guards pose in ceremonial attire at Wellington Barracks, March 21, 2012 in London, England. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Change is hard. Just think about self-driving cars and trucks. With fractional ownership, car sales plummet, insurance plummets, auto repair disappears. While unions are fighting for what they believe are their rights, they are missing the real issues and the opportunities coming down the pipe.

People are talking about minimum wage, but McDonalds says the only way to survive is by replacing workers with robots. So, how does the government respond? In the EU, they are now asking robots to pay social security taxes. That is how the establishment fights the progress they fear.

Look at who they’ve rolled out, both right and left, for this presidential election. They will use anything they can to hold onto their power:

• Build walls!

• Get the guns!

• Free college for everybody!

• Ban Muslims!

• Spy on people!

• More spending, more debt, more war, because everything is a threat!

How sad. What a joke they have become. A civil rights sit-in with people like John Lewis. He fought for the rights of others, but now leads a movement to limit the rights of citizens, repressing the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th Amendments.

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Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), (3rd L), James Clyburn (D-SC), Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Charles Rangel, (D-NY), right, speak with supporters outside the U.S. Capitol building June 23, 2016 in Washington, DC. (Allison Shelley/Getty Images)

The political class — the elites — will resist the next age forcefully, with all they have. The disruptions we’ll see over the next 30 years will be catastrophic to some very powerful forces. Governments, banks, corporations, unions and industries with GDPs larger than most nations will crumble. Currencies will become obsolete. And these institutions will hold on until their last dying breath.

The church resisted the Age of Enlightenment because it threatened the status quo. It threatened its power.

What do you think Monsanto will do when prime beef can be grown in a lab and 3D printed? Either they will buy up the beef industry and push for regulation of 3D printers, or they will buy up the 3D printing companies and lobby for regulations on the beef industry.

America makes up 4% of the world’s population, but we consume 45% of the prescription drugs and 80% of the world’s anti-depressants. What will drug manufacturers will do when DNA sequencing and stem cell generation cure all diseases?

What will the oil industry do when Elon Musk masters cold fusion?

What will the utility companies do when he or Apple masters the solar battery?

What will funeral homes and cemeteries do when Kurzweil and Thiel cure death like a disease — when the body is merely a flawed machine that can be disposed of or replaced, having nothing to do with the definition of life?

All of these questions will have to be answered. And many of you will be alive to see it happen.

The most urgent question is this:

Will you be the one helping to set the new design, or just living within the framework of rules somebody else built? Will you be a free man or a slave?

The Baby Boomers and Gen X grew up under the shadow of the nuclear build-up. In the years following the Cuban Missile Crisis, 25% of new homes included bomb shelters.

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Illustration of a family building a bomb fallout shelter together, from a U.S. Department of Defense publication, 1961. (Hulton Archive/Getty Images)

Since World War II, we have believed nuclear bombs were the ultimate weapon, the ultimate way to destroy. But social media has proved that isn’t true. A bomb does not destroy a civilization. That’s not what is being used to destroy ours.

The two greatest weapons in the information age — available to governments, corporations and the media — are fear and shame.

Fear is how you blind people, get them to surrender their freedom, hand it over to pay for the safety you promise them. Make people afraid. Tell them who is to blame. In America, that is how you sell a product. That is how you win elections. Fear is how you divide. Fear is how you enslave.

Shame is how you silence the skeptics and those who would speak out in protest. Shame is how you suppress dissent.

It’s time to fight back against the cacophony of the establishment — media, movies, ads from corporations and lobbyists — all trying to make you feel afraid and all trying to make you feel ashamed.

• Ashamed to be American.

• Ashamed to be a white male.

• Ashamed to be gay.

• Ashamed to drive a used car.

• Ashamed to have ancestors who might have owned slaves.

• Ashamed to be bald, fat, black, wealthy, poor, to eat meat, to not shop at Whole Foods, or to like cats more than dogs.

What a load of crap. Don’t let anybody control you or your thinking. That way of life, that type of politics and moral dictatorship needs to be left in the ash heap.

Let’s focus on what’s right with each other — the principles and hopes we all have in common. The next two generations can just let all of that go. Martin Luther King, Jr. was right: Love wins.

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US civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr., waves to supporters from the steps of the Lincoln Memorial 28 August, 1963, on The Mall in Washington, DC (AFP/Getty Images)

Let the legacy of your generation be to realize the mistakes of the ones that came before.

The partisan politics, the fear-driven marketing from special interest groups who send out scare-mail and shame you into another donation — their empire is dying. Dying empires thrash about.

• They will start wars.

• They will pass new draconian laws.

• They will ban public gatherings.

• They will kill each other’s leaders.

• They will pass new taxes to curb behaviors they don’t like.

• They will spend money they don’t have, point at their apparent prosperity and say, “See, we’re great!” and try to convince themselves they’re still the greatest nation on earth.

Only they aren’t enjoying their own prosperity, they are enjoying yours. They’ve stolen it from you as surely as if they held a gun to your head.

• More monuments

• More people with health care

• More college graduates

• More police

• More hospitals

All good things, right?

• More hubris

• More bailouts

• More safety regulations

• More debt

• More guns in the hands of bureaucrats

• More power over you

It wasn’t their greatness, it was yours. Their empire is built on $200 trillion of debt. Numbers that have become so large they are meaningless. But they don’t have to pay it. The politicians who left us that tab will be dead and gone when the bill comes due.

No big deal, right?

I’m not asking too much, am I? Let’s see, you just need to throw off the shackles of fear and shame, help the country reboot into America 3.0, pay off $200 trillion in debt and learn to live and let live.

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The National Debt Clock is seen on the corner of Sixth Avenue and West 44th Street on August 1, 2011 in New York City. (Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

So, what enables you to do those things?

When you figure it out, that is what goes into the letter to your grandkids. Not what you fear, but what compels you to stand and keeps you standing through the storms of life.

That is what I wanted to hear from my grandparents. That would have helped me navigate my life. The answers that help you navigate your life will never be found with someone who says, “I’ll fix the transgender bathroom problem.” They are too narrow-minded. They don’t get it. They don’t see the future.

I have grandkids. Whether I like it or not, I’ll be leaving them a legacy, a heritage, a code of ethics and honor, a name to live up to. I am leaving them a world to inhabit. As technology advances forward at this rapid pace, they might have to inhabit it for a long time.

The legacy we leave isn’t just physical. It’s moral. If we choose it, if we let it, this will be the next Golden Age for man, and for freedom.

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Can you remember the economic crisis of 2008 and how you felt when the news broke that Lehman Brothers had collapsed? I have found an economic threat that everyone needs to be aware of, so you can prepare yourself in case we see another 2008 type collapse. I am going to present the evidence to you and I urge you to verify everything and to form your own opinion.

What is that threat?

It is a bank called Deutsche Bank. They are by far the most dominant bank in Germany which is the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2018 they had €2.08 Trillion worth of assets and the second-placed bank (DZ Bank) had €506 Billion worth of assets. To show you how dominant this bank is, they have more assets than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th sized banks combined.
When we review a business there are three key parts to analysis:

  • Market sentiment
  • Business numbers
  • Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Deutsche Bank has a long history of potential scandals including going all the way back to World War 2 and dealing in Nazi gold. Below are five recent stories which have increased the negative sentiment around Deutsche Bank.

  1. In 2007, they purchased a portfolio of loans worth $7.8 billion and purchased insurance from Warren Buffets Company. It was discovered they did not set aside enough capital to cover any potential losses. Over the course of the ten years, they lost $1.6 billion, and when they sold the loan they did not update their financial statements to include the big loss
  2. The Panama Papers are an ongoing investigation looking for many things including offshore tax havens. These investigations have resulted in several heads of state resigning including in Iceland and Pakistan. Last November, 170 police raided 6 different offices in Frankfurt looking for evidence of money laundering.
  3. Estonia is a small country in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 1.3 million people and a GDP of €26 billion. In January, it was discovered Deutsche Bank got involved with a Danish bank called Danke Bank and processed over $230 billion worth of cross country payments (including from Soviet Russia) through one bank in Estonia.
  4. There have been rumors of issues with Deutsche for a while now and one of the solutions put forth was a merger with a bank called CommerzBank. The leaders of both companies met and they even got support from politicians. In April, news broke that the merger talks had failed because over worries the risks and costs would be too great.
  5. Last week in France, Investment banking boss Garth Ritchie and others were arrested in France over illicit tax transactions.

Business Numbers

Deutsche Bank is already struggling as they are losing staff, losing market share, and bonuses are expected to be down at least 10% and further rounds of cost-cutting to come. Now imagine the impact if business costs start going up.

The banking industry works in a very simple way. They raise funds through large bonds at low-interest rates and then sell those funds to business and individuals thru products like loans and credit cards at a higher interest rate which results in a potential profit.

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank tried raising money through several bonds. They paid 180bp (basis points) on a two-year bond and 230bp on a seven-year bond. Let me put this in context for you. There is a small bank in Spain called Caixabank which paid 225bp on a five-year bond and one of the larger banks in Spain, BBVA paid 130bp on a five-year bond.

  • How and why is a small bank in Spain getting a better deal on bonds than a huge bank in Germany?
  • Why is a large bank in Spain getting a bond 100bp cheaper than a German bank?
  • What does the market know that we do not?

Stock Price

Deutsche is also missing revenue projections which further hurt the business ability to survive and prosper. As you can imagine all of this news has a deep and lasting impact on its stock price which is in deep trouble. Before I share the stock price, I need to put this into the context of the market and the industry compared to the big economic crash of 2008. Below you will see a chart of some banking stocks from around the world with their peak price prior to the 2008 crash, the low of the 2008 recession and the price today:

As you can see from the above chart the banks in America have recovered from the 2008 recession by anywhere up 375% and JP Morgan has not only recovered its price in full but is constantly setting new high's. Ireland went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the EU/IMF following the 2008 crash and even our national bank has more than doubled its price since 2008. The worst performing bank I could find was Societe Generale which has issues but is still hovering around its 2008 low price levels.

Now let's put that into the context of Deutsche Bank. Not only has the stock not rebounded but it is over 65% below its 2008 low at $6.75.

Technical Analysis

When you are dealing with the stock market, you also have people who study pricing through technical analysis. Experts look at things like FIB sequences, trend lines, and support levels. Support levels are a key metric for a stock failing because are looking to find where it will find support and potentially bounce higher.

We are very close to a key support level ($6.40) and if the price goes below this level, there is no saying exactly how low the price could go. At least one company expects Deutsche to fall below this support level, as several weeks ago UBS downgraded the stock to a sell order. This news was compounded last Friday when rating agency Fitch, downgraded their credit rating to BBB or two levels above JUNK status.

Other Information

I know you are likely reading this and thinking "this bank must have smart people in charge and surely they have a plan, right?" I am sure there is a plan and while they have kept their cards close to their chest, they have spoken in the past about the areas they foresee having growth for the company – they include business in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Do they strike you as countries which are stable and will offer steady and reliable growth? Do you have to think really hard to imagine how this could go potentially very wrong?

Questions

I believe there is at least a solid case Deutsche is in a LOT of trouble. So what are possible scenarios for the future? I will lay out the key questions below but I must stress that it's impossible to say for sure what exactly will happen. One of the key numbers to remember here is they have roughly €50 billion worth of derivatives.

  • How likely is it that the bank can turn things around and survive?
  • How likely is it the bank continues to run into trouble, its stock price fails and eventually fails?
  • If you think it is likely it will fail, the question becomes what will the fallout be? Who will be affected?
  • Will they be bailed out?
  • If so, by whom? The German government, ECB, IMF, the Federal Reserve?
  • What will the German government think? Some members recently spoke out saying they would block public money for the proposed merger? Will they block funds if it failed?
  • Will other banks be exposed and affected? Will they have to take losses?
  • Will those losses be spread around or will one or more bank be mainly affect?
  • Will this affect the sentiment of the banking sector and cause a panic?
  • If there are issues and it starts affecting the stock prices, what will be the impact on other industries?

Last Question

The last question revolves solely around the banks and the regulators? How secure are the other banks? We all hear about how banks are now put through "stress tests" but how much trust do you put in those results? How much trust do you have in the regulators?

I know this may make me sound like a conspiracy theorist to some but it's an honest question. The Fed is on public record saying they want to keep this economy strong as long as possible. If a bank did not perform strongly in a stress test or even barely failed one, do you think they would report it?

Can you imagine the pressure that body would come under to stay silent? Can you imagine the rhetoric they would face with questions like, "Are you really going to fail one bank? Do you know how many people will lose their jobs if you do that?" Am I saying this is happening? No, but can you really rule it out 100% as a possibility?

I urge you to ponder on these questions, do your own research and find YOUR answers.

Update: The most freaquently asked question I have received from this column / show is how much time do we have to prepare. This is an impossible question to answer, as it could fail tomorrow, next week or might be next year. However I want to provide you a potential date for your diary – July 24th. That is when Deutsche will release their next earnings report and if it comes in below expectations, it could cause a further drop in price casting more doubt over the future viability of the bank.

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Survey: Where do you stand on these conspiracy theories?

Thought Catalog / Unsplash

Have you seen this survey on the most-believed conspiracy theories in America?

It's no surprise the survey has been getting so much attention. The results are actually a pretty disturbing.

Infographic: Belief in Conspiracy Theories in the United States | Statista

I decided to put together a quick survey of my own, with slightly different wording.

Up-vote the ones you agree with and down-vote the ones you disagree with.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK alone. However, I would not be surprised to find out the government sealed evidence that others were involved.

If by "deep state" you mean long-time Washington power brokers who are used to calling the shots and now feel threatened by Donald Trump not listening to their advice or council — yes, I do believe that many people like that are working against him and his administration.

Whether alien bodies are in Area 51 or not, I do believe the government knows more about UFOs than they have told us.

I do not believe the U.S. government was involved in 9/11, but as we know, NSA advisor Sandy Berger was caught destroying documents from the national archives related to both Bush and Clinton. All U.S. administrations have been to close to the Saudis, and the Saudis were involved in 9/11 at some level.

I believe the climate is always changing — it's natural. I would be willing to accept that man MAY play a role in this. But I do not believe in the solutions currently being discussed, nor do I believe the intention of most political activists are pure.

Any talk of the Illuminati provides the true dangers to man's freedom — like very powerful NGOS and men like George Soros — a perfect cover.

The U.S. government has done some horrible experiments on people and land — I also suspect they will do more things in the future. But I do not believe in the systematic spraying of chemicals using chemtrails.

The moon landing was real, but I see a time coming when people will not be able to trust their eyes due to deep fakes.

What do you think?

Let me know in the comments section below.