So I'm going to talk to you, believe it or not, on what matters most. But I want to start with a book that I just finished by Dan Brown. It's called Origin.
I was in the bookstores a couple weeks ago, and I just bought a stack of books. And Origin was one of them.
And I don't even know why -- I've read two fiction books in the last, I don't know, three years. And the -- and those -- both of them have been in the last 45 days. This one, I -- I read. And I wasn't -- I wasn't even really sure why, other than the premise intrigued me, which is a guy like Elon Musk has figured out, you know, where we came from. And says that he can disprove God.
And I thought, "Okay. Let's see where Dan Brown is going with this one." I know it's going to make the Catholic Church look bad. I got that. What else is he going to do?
I urge you to read this book. It's a -- it's a great -- you know, it's a great Dan Brown book. It's in the same spirit as the Da Vinci Code, et cetera, et cetera. You will spend a lot of time on Google looking things up, going, that's not true. Is that true?
And believe me, I spent a lot of time on Google. And a lot of the stuff in it is true. I mean, it's a real faction book, rather than fiction. It's got a lot of truth to it, and you'll learn a lot about history and everything else that you didn't know.
The -- I don't want to wreck this. But the -- the discovery is not so great. However, the point that they make on humanity and how life is going to change. Very early on, you're introduced to an AI that is this Elon Musk's right-hand man.
And nobody even knows he's AI at the beginning. Because he only is calling and talking to people on the phone or on headsets, et cetera, et cetera. And everybody thinks he's a real guy. And early on, you find out that he's not a real guy. He's AI.
And the premise of the book is, there is real trouble coming our way. And I want you to read this book, because it puts it into fiction. But in a way that, if you can get past some of the religion bashing, which I think is not completely over the top -- it's a little annoying at times. But if you can get past that, you will learn a lot on what you should be concerned about.
A friend of mine sent me something from what's called Mauldin Economics. And he -- this writer, this economist is worried about the fragmentation of society, along with a few other things.
He said, lately my life has been completely packed with speeches and meetings and in-depth, often lengthy conversations, and ongoing research. But I'm always asked, what's on the top of your mind? What are you thinking about? What keeps you up at night?
It's become an emotional question for me, because the answer doesn't come easily. It's complex. And more than a little unsettling. It's evolving out of the research and writing that I am doing about the age of transformation.
Now, this guy is -- this guy is -- he's cut from my same cloth. So you would know.
He is not a catastrophist like I am. I always look for the catastrophe in things. I'm the guy who you don't want on the first half of the ride of the Titanic. But you definitely want me, you know, as we're getting the lifeboats.
I'm the guy on the way to the iceberg, going, "This thing is going down. And there's not enough lifeboats." Once we hit the iceberg, I'm like, "We're going to make it. We're going to be fine. Don't worry. Just, everybody get into a lifeboat."
I'm an optimistic catastrophist. And he strikes me as the same kind of guy. And he said, "We're going to see massive technological changes in the next 20 years. We will see more change and improvement in the next 20 years than we've seen in the last 100."
Now, think of that. Remember, it's been almost 18 years, 17 years now since September 11th. It's been 20 years. Think how fast that has gone.
We're going to see more technological change in the next 20 years, I contend in the next ten, than we've seen in the last 100.
He said, let's start with the good news. In 1820, some 94 percent of the world's population lived in extreme poverty. Ninety-four percent of the world's population lived in extreme poverty. By 1990, that figure was 35 percent.
In 2015, the extreme poverty number was only 9.6 percent. Think of that.
Now, what brought us there. Capitalism. When you can go in 1820, to 94 percent of the world, living in extreme poverty, and it had always been that way -- and one thing changes. Freedom comes to the world for the first time. Freedom and security for the first time, under our Constitution.
And now, it's at 9.6? Forty percent of those who remain impoverished live just in two countries, Nigeria and India, both of which are growing rapidly and will see their extreme poverty significantly decrease in the next 20 years.
There is research to show that, on a global basis, the poor are getting richer faster than any other group.
Let me say that again: There is research that shows, on a a global basis, the poor are getting richer faster than any other group.
If you look beyond the US and Europe -- if you don't look beyond the US and Europe, that's not the conclusion you come to. But Africa and Asia, absolutely. The Industrial Age and free market capitalism, for all of its bumps and warts, have lifted more people out of poverty and extended more lives than has any other single development. The collapse of communism has been a great boon to humanity, even if it is still talked about in -- in favorable ways in western universities.
Now, he talks about the collide that is coming because of jobs. Every new robot replaced 5.6 workers in 2007. And every additional robot per 1,000 workers reduced the percentage of total population employed by .34.
Also reduced wages. Every robot by .5 percent. There is a loss coming of 3.4 million jobs by 2025.
Remember, we're talking about industrial robots only. Not all robots. And any software. Especially not AI.
The future of work conclusion that 90 percent of all driving in the US will be transportation as a service, by 2030.
Let me say that again. Ninety percent of all driving in the US will be what's called TAAS. Transportation as a service. Ninety percent of all driving.
That's an Uber service. The good news is that the average family will save $5600 a year in transportation costs, keeping an extra trillion dollars in Americans' pockets. Think of the time that will be freed for activities other than driving, not to mention the traffic jams that will be reduced. The officers believe that freeing time now spent commuting to work, plus faster transport times, will lead to an increase of GDP between 500 million and as much as $2.5 trillion.
Of course, governments will lose as much as 50 billion in gasoline taxes, as we shift to electric engine and alternative forms of power systems. The bad news is a lot of people will lose their incomes. 228,000 auto repair shops in the country, employing 647,000 workers. That's a minimum data from BLS. When a new car will last for a million miles and have fewer than 30 moving parts, what are we going to -- what are we going to do in auto repair jobs?
The auto industry employs 1.25 million people directly, another 7.25 million indirectly. Not all driving jobs will be lost, but the authors estimate that about 5 million jobs, with a reduction in national income of 200 million. And if we need fewer cars, the estimated new vehicle annual unit sales will drop by 70 percent by 2030, to around 5.6 million vehicles, versus the 18 million that will be sold ten years prior in 2020.
So what happens to all of those jobs? He's talking about a massive, massive loss of -- of income and a massive loss of jobs and businesses that are starting to close down.
But then he gets to something that is really disturbing. And that is the fragmentation of our society. We'll get to that in a second.