PULSECAST: Your one-stop shop for 2024 presidential polling

Feeling overwhelmed by the endless stream of presidential polls? We've got you covered.

Stu and his team of fellow political wizzes created the Pulsecast in tandem with the Glenn Beck Program, a comprehensive view of national sentiment towards Donald Trump and Kamala Harris heading into November. They gather data from all major election polls so that you don't have to sift through individual polls to get the big picture of what's going on.

The Pulsecast doesn't cherry-pick unfavorable numbers for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. They're giving you the big picture, saving you a bunch of time, and effort. Think of it as your one-stop source for a complete polling picture, without the hassle of multiple clicks or biased sources.

Be sure to tune in to the Glenn Beck Program to catch Glenn and Stu's rundown of the daily Pulsecast, and check back in here for the most up-to-date Pulsecast on this page.

October 02, 2024

October 01, 2024

September 30, 2024

Recent polling data shows promising trends for Donald Trump in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona. However, Kamala Harris has gained ground in national polls, continuing the trend of Trump performing well in state-level polls while Harris leads nationally. According to current projections, Trump currently holds a 43.9 percent chance of winning the election, positioning him as a slight underdog, but it is still anyone's game in this razor-thin election.

The real surprise comes from a major shift in union support. In 1992, Bill Clinton led with union voters by 30 points, a margin that dropped to 19 points for Biden in 2020. Now, Kamala Harris holds only a 9-point lead in this group. Meanwhile, Trump has made major gains among trade school voters, moving from a 7-point deficit in 1992 to a staggering 31-point lead in 2024. This dramatic realignment reflects broader shifts in voter demographics and priorities heading into the next election.

September 29, 2024

September 28, 2024

September 27, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

September 26, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

As of today, Donald Trump has a 44.52 percent chance of winning the election. This is just a tick-down from yesterday at 45.05 percent.

Stu suspects that this slight downturn is largely due to one poll that had Kamala Harris up by seven, which has been the best poll of the entire campaign for her. He suspects that this will be an outlier

September 25, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

Donald Trump had another strong day with his chances to win rising from 43.82 percent to 45.03 percent. This shift has effectively erased the negative decline in his polling this past month. The race is still a tossup with Kamala Harris's polling at 54.97 percent.

Trump continues to lead significantly on key issues, such as immigration, where he’s up by 21 points. This lead, coupled with the financial strain Americans are facing—like skyrocketing utility bills, food and gas prices, and inflation—begs the question: Why is the race still this close? Glenn and Stu suspect that many voters still don't believe Harris bears responsibility for the failures of the Biden presidency. One poll indicates that 19 percent of voters who say Biden's presidency was a failure are still voting for Harris.

September 24, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

Donald Trump's chances to win have improved slightly, rising from 43 percent to 43.82 percent, marking a nearly full-point gain. While that may seem small, it's significant for these kinds of prediction models, which are designed to move slowly and reflect longer-term trends. This gain comes after Trump had initially dropped by 4.3 percent following the last debate, but his deficit has now been cut to just 2.9 percent. The New York Times/Sienna poll, a highly influential source, played a key role in this shift, showing positive results for Trump in key states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Looking at the state-level breakdown, Trump's leading by up to five points in some, with North Carolina showing a two-point lead. Winning North Carolina in particular is critical, as it’s considered a must-win state. To secure a win overall, Trump will need to hold on to Georgia, North Carolina, and possibly Arizona, while also flipping one of the blue-wall states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan.

September 23, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

Today's Pollcast has Donald Trump’s chances of winning at 43.2 percent, according to aggregated polling data. This figure indicates a decline of 4.3 percent from last week and a drop of approximately 4.6 percent over a longer period. Despite this dip, many pollsters are still optimistic for Donald Trump.

These prediction models often weigh the results of higher-rated pollsters more heavily in their calculations. For example, New York Times/Siena polling is among the most reputable, and its state-level data paints a positive picture for Trump. In key battleground states like Arizona, Trump holds a 5-point lead (50 percent to 45 percent). In Georgia, Trump's ahead by 4 points (49 percent to 45 percent). In North Carolina, Trump is up by 2 points (49 percent to 47 percent). This most recent data mark a reversal from the past two to four weeks, during which polls were favoring Kamala Harris in those swing states.

Moreover, national polling has been more favorable to Trump than Harris in recent weeks. If this trend continues and Trump can sustain both national and state polling advantages, his overall outlook could significantly improve.

However, it’s crucial to note that winning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina alone isn't enough for Trump to secure the presidency. He would still need victories in other key states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan. While his performance in these battleground states is essential, his path to victory requires success beyond just these three.

September 22, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

As of today, Donald Trump’s chances of winning stand at 44 percent, while Kamala Harris leads with 55.8 percent, reflecting a close race. Though Harris has the advantage, this nearly 55-45 split still indicates a highly competitive contest. Such a margin is akin to a coin flip, underscoring the uncertainty of the election outcome. Despite recent polling challenges for Trump, this is far from a decisive lead for Harris, as both candidates remain within striking distance of each other.

The current polling divergence between Trump and Harris has widened over the past week, but it’s important to remember that Trump is not in a dire position. Political analysts emphasize that a race this tight makes forecasting difficult, leaving room for significant shifts as new data comes in.

September 21, 2024

REMINDER: The PULSECAST attempts to put a finger on the pulse of what mainstream pollsters and data nerds are saying. It is not Glenn or Stu’s election prediction. Read more detail here.

Donald Trump experienced a slight uptick in his chances yesterday, moving him to 44.3 percent to 44.77 percent. While it may seem minor, such daily fluctuations can be important when viewing polling trends over time.

One possible factor contributing to this uptick could be the fallout from the recent assassination attempt. Although it’s difficult to pinpoint a single cause, polling released yesterday was generally favorable to Trump on a national level. However, it’s worth noting that Kamala Harris still performed well in key swing states.

On today's episode of the Glenn Beck Program, Stu compared polling to weight loss: progress isn't always visible in the short term. With Harris enjoying strong polling recently, it's important to take a longer view to assess the direction of the race. This uptick for Trump may signal a shift, but it will take more time to see how the numbers stabilize over the coming days.

The case for mass deportation

NurPhoto / Contributor | Getty Images

Unchecked illegal immigration into America may be the most dangerous issue our country faces today, and with every day it goes unsolved, the risk of a terrorist attack of 9/11 proportions only increases.

Despite the risk, we can't even touch the subject without the Left and the mainstream media having a meltdown. Even suggesting that the tide of undocumented immigrants may pose some sort of national problem will quickly get you labeled as a racist, stumping intelligent conversation before it can even begin. But as any right-minded Conservative will tell you, calls to close the border and deport the people who stole into our country have nothing to do with race.

In his most recent TV special, Glenn described in detail what sorts of dangers we have let into our countries, with facts and figures that prove that if we don't act soon we will be in deep trouble. Glenn made it clear: we need to conduct a mass deportation or risk being torn apart from within. Here are three reasons that make the case for mass deportations:

Islamic terror cells are forming in South America.

Spencer Platt / Staff | Getty Images

Congressional testimony from the Committee on Homeland Security in 2011 revealed that Hugo Chavez held a "Secret Summit" involving the Supreme Leader of Hamas, the Chief of Operations for Hezbollah, and the Secretary General of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Caracas, Venezuela. It is clear that ever since (and possibly before) there has been a Radical Islamic Terrorist presence in Venezuela. Right now there is an Iranian beachhead off the Venezuelan coast on Margarita Island, where the Iranian government is running criminal activities and recruiting and training Venezuelan gangs. These gangs have used our border crisis to infiltrate the U.S. The most infamous of these gangs, Tren de Aragua, has been declared a terrorist organization by the State of Texas.

Terrorist-backed gangs are smuggling in weapons and tearing through the country.

John Moore / Staff | Getty Images

What are these Iranian-trained and backed gangs doing in America? As you can imagine, nothing good. Just this year alone an estimated million rounds of ammunition, 1.2 million gun parts, 3,000 body armor vests, and thousands of pieces of other military paraphernalia have been smuggled across the border. On top of that, they have already taken over an apartment complex in Aurora, Colorado, and are now terrorizing the remaining residents.

It's noteworthy that the gang managed to move into the apartment in the first place because they received subsidies through an NGO that was assisting the Colorado asylum seekers program, using money given to the state by the Biden administration in 2021.

Gangs have attacked military bases.

Lee Corkran / Contributor | Getty Images

It hasn't stopped at apartment complexes either. A leak from the U.S. Army revealed that the gangs have launched probing attacks on military facilities within the U.S. Members have been sighted taking surveillance photos of Lackland Air Force Base, as well as firing multiple shots into the facility. Another military base in Texas, Fort Sam Houston, caught a gang member attempting to gain access to the facility. This coincides with suspicious activity documented within the Permian Basin, the largest oil field in the U.S.

They are smuggling in vast quantities of military equipment, probing and surveying military facilities and key energy locations, and taking over residential areas. What exactly is going on and why isn't the federal government taking it more seriously?

VP debate recap: A Vance victory

Bloomberg / Contributor | Getty Images

This might have been the most consequential VP debate in recent memory.

For those of you who missed the debate, it was a decisive victory for J.D. Vance and the Trump-Vance team as a whole. Vance presented a calm, collected, and considerate side of the Republican party that compliments Trump and helps to make their platform more palatable. Meanwhile, Tim Walz had a lackluster, though certainly not catastrophic, night. He had a few embarrassing gaffes and came across as overly nervous, but like Vance, kept it civil.

Both VP candidates entered the stage as relative unknowns to most Americans, and by the end, both men had given an accurate representation of their characters. Here is a brief recap just in case you missed the debate:

J.D. Vance looked great

ANGELA WEISS / Contributor | Getty Images

Vance came out of the gate swinging, with a stellar opening statement that helped set the stage for the rest of the debate. He delivered a concise yet compelling recap of his life, which framed him as everything Walz claims to be: a relatable veteran from humble beginnings who earned his position through hard work and service. He then went on to deliver a clear and palatable defense of Trump's platform and mission while cooly drawing attention to the failures of the Biden-Harris administration.

Overall, J.D. Vance looked incredibly presidential. He presented himself not just as a capable vice president, but as a strong successor to Trump and as a valid replacement if anything should happen to the former president between now and the end of his hypothetical second term. Vance also successfully dispelled the notion that he is "weird" as Walz called him, and if anyone looked strange during the debate, it certainly wasnot Vance.

Tim Walz's gaffes

Chip Somodevilla / Staff | Getty Images

While Tim Walz certainly didn't have an awful night, he did not stack up well against Vance. Walz had a major gaffe around halfway through the debate when asked to explain the change in his position on assault weapon bans. Walz then claimed that he had befriended school shooters during his time in office. While that was clearly not the intention of what he was saying, it was embarrassing nonetheless.

Another weak moment was when the moderators asked Walz to explain a claim he had made regarding being in Hong Kong during the infamous Tiananmen Square protest in 1989, which has since been proven false. Walz gave a long-winded, rambling answer about taking students to visit China and how Trump should have joined in on those trips, before being called out by the moderator for dodging the question.

Vance fact-checked the fact-checkers

Chip Somodevilla / Staff | Getty Images

One of the conditions of the CBS debate was that the moderators would not fact-check the debaters live, but instead rely on after-the-matter fact-checking. But, CBS couldn't keep to its own rules. While Vance was describing the migrant crisis that has swelled during the Biden-Harris administration, one of the CBS moderators, Margaret Brennan, chimed in with a "fact check." She claimed that the Haitian migrants in Ohio have legal status, to which Vance clapped back by calling Brennan out for breaking the rules of the debate, then proceeded to correct her, explaining that they only had legal status due to overreach by the Biden-Harris administration.

Dockworker strike: Everything you need to know

Anadolu / Contributor | Getty Images

At midnight on September 30th, dockworkers across the East Coast went on strike, effectively cutting the country's import and export capabilities in half.

Don't go out and panic buy a pallet of toilet paper and instant ramen just yet. It's going to take some time for the full effects of the strike to be felt and hopefully, the strike will be good and over by then. But there are no guarantees, and this election cycle could get significantly more insane as we draw near to the election. And even if the strike is settled quickly, it shows growing cracks in our infrastructure and industrial capacity that needs to be addressed if America wants to maintain its global dominance.

Here is everything you need to know about the dockworker strike:

What do the dockworkers want?

Anadolu / Contributor | Getty Images

As with most strikes, pay is the driving factor behind this situation the country now finds itself in. The longshoremen want more pay, and with rising inflation who can blame them? After all, working the docks is hard and dangerous business, and fair compensation only seems... fair. But when you compare the wage of a dockworker, which is around $100,000 to $200,00 a year to the average income in America of $56,000, suddenly they seem significantly less sympathetic.

How much money are they asking for? For most Americans, a three percent raise is considered high, but the unions are asking up to 15 percent, depending on location. On top of that, they are asking for a 77 percent raise over the next six years. The West Coast dock workers recently made off with a 36 percent raise and were considered lucky. These increases in costs are just going to be transferred to the end consumer, and we'll likely see a jump in prices if these terms are accepted.

The other major ticket item is protection against automation. Autonomous ports are quickly becoming a reality, with major ports in China that are capable of handling vast amounts of cargo being run by a single office, not an army of dock workers. Naturally, the longshoremen are concerned that their jobs are at risk of being replaced by machines that can work harder, longer, for cheaper, and without risk of injury.

How will it affect Americans?

Joe Raedle / Staff | Getty Images

Don't panic yet!

It is going to take some time for consumers to feel the effects of the strike and it is possible that a resolution could happen at any time.

Week one should be pretty much business as usual. It might be a good idea to stock up on fruit and other perishables, but there is no need to go COVID-lockdown-crazy yet.

Week two is when you'll first start feeling the pinch. Fresh fruits and veggies will become scarce, along with other imported goods like shoes, toys, and TVs. Prices will start to creep up as the shelves will start to look a little sparse. The supply of tools, lumber, and other hardware materials will also begin to dry up.

By week three, the cracks in the system will really start to show. Entire industries will begin to slow down, or even stop. Factory workers will get furloughed and sent home without pay. Stores will have to ration items, prices will be sky-high, and online orders will come to a standstill. At this point, the strike will have escalated into a full-blown crisis, and even if it was resolved immediately, it would still take weeks to restore everything to working order.

At the four-week mark, the situation will have developed into a national security crisis, and as Glenn describes, a poly-crisis. Small business will be closing their doors, entire brands will be out of stock, and everything that remains will be so expensive it is unaffordable. By this point, the holiday season will be drawing near and there will be a rush on any sort of gift or decor items left. At this point, irreparable damage to our economy will have occurred and it will be months if not years before it can be mended.

While that sounds bleak, with the election just around the corner, it seems unlikely that the Biden-Harris administration will let it get that bad. That being said, their administration has not been characterized by good decision-making and reasonable policy, so there are no guarantees.

What can be done?

The Washington Post / Contributor | Getty Images

The big question is "Why hasn't Biden already done something?"

President Biden, who ran on the image of a blue-collar, union-worker, has been uncharacteristically absent from the issue. Despite his earlier involvement in a train strike, Biden has declared that involvement in union fights is not a presidential issue unless it getsreally bad.

So where's the line? At what point will he step in? He has to understand that an economic crisis right before the election will reflect poorly on Kamala.

Join Glenn TONIGHT for BlazeTV's exclusive VP debate coverage!

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Join Glenntonight for Vice Presidential debate coverage you do not want to miss!

Tonight is the first (and only) Vice Presidential debate, and it will be hosted by CBS News. But don't be reliant on CBS News or any other mainstream media channel for their biased coverage. Join the BlazeTV live stream tonight to get the uncensored truth alongside top-quality commentary from Glenn and the rest of the world-class panel.

Glenn is joined by Megyn Kelly, Liz Wheeler, Allie Beth Stuckey, Steve Deace, Jill Savage, Dave Landau, and more to cover the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate. Blaze Media subscribers gain access to live chat with the fantastic panel of hosts! If you subscribe today by visiting BlazeTV.com/debate you will get $40 off of your annual subscription with code DEBATE. This is the largest discount ever offered, so take advantage NOW!

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