Glenn Beck: Climbing for Seals


-- Michael's Everest Challenge site

-- Find out more about the Warrior Fund


GLENN: 888-727-BECK, 888-727-BECK. Last night I had a dinner with a good friend of mine, Marcus Luttrell, Navy SEAL, part of Seal Team 8 that -- or is it Seal Team 10, Stu?

DAN: 10.

GLENN: Yeah, Seal Team 10. His brother I think is an 8. And he wrote the book The Lone Survivor which if you haven't read, it's just a remarkable story. These SEALs are amazing. We were having dinner and he was telling me, "Oh, yeah, I jumped out of a plane at 29,000 feet and I did this and, you know, you only pull your parachute when you're doing that high altitude, you only pull your parachute about 800 feet from the ground." I'm thinking to myself, I'd be dead. There's just no way I would do any of these -- he's talking about big picked up by the submarine, you throw this band around it. It's just bizarre what these people do and they do it all the time. All the time the SEALs are out. Another good friend of mine, Michael Kobold is in the studio. How are you?

KOBOLD: Hi, Glenn, how are you?

GLENN: You're a watchmaker. In case anybody doesn't know, Kobold watches, I wear Kobold watches. They are the only ones -- are you completely made now in America?

KOBOLD: No, not completely but close to 89% by value.

GLENN: This is -- and so many people don't know this. We stopped making watches a long time ago and Michael is a German who came over here and now is working over here and living over here, and are you an American yet?

KOBOLD: I'm not American. I'm here on a Visa. I'm German.

GLENN: All right. So -- but he's making watches, bringing them back here to America, makes them in Pittsburgh and they're great watches. In fact, the 24 watch which I have which is the one that was made for Kiefer Sutherland for the TV show 24 is the one I wear.

KOBOLD: That's right.

GLENN: And the SEALs wear his watches and everything else, great watches. Anyway, you are raising funds for the Navy SEALs?

KOBOLD: Yeah, in a roundabout way. So most people set up, you know, bake sales and lemonade stands, but the SEALs need a lot of money and this is not for the SEALs directly. It's for the Navy SEALs' families. If they get wounded or injured when killed in action, their families are taken care of by a fund called the Navy SEAL warrior fund. Which is a private institution and they raise money for these guys so that their families are taken care of when they can't take care of them anymore.

GLENN: And how are you raising money?

KOBOLD: Well, I'm climbing Mt. Everest in April and in May from Will Cross from Pittsburgh.

GLENN: Oh, in April and in May. We're just going to miss each other.

KOBOLD: Yeah, it's going to be a little bit tough. It's two months on the cold icy mountain there and with the worst food in the world.

GLENN: So again how are you raising money? I mean, that's cool that you're climbing Mt. Everest. What are you doing?

KOBOLD: Well, the way this all came about is I climb Mt. Everest with friends last year but I didn't get very far and, of course, Sir Ranulph Fiennes is the world's greatest living explorer. I had a week to prepare for this. I went up and I injured myself. I sliced my hand open. So I wasn't allowed to climb anymore. And then I support the Navy SEALs by various ways, we give watches away, we raffle them off and we auction them off. At one of these events a Navy SEAL commander, commander from Seal Team 10 said how far did you get up Everest? I said, not very far, 20,000 feet. He said, that's not quite the summit, son. And so I said, you know what, I'm going to try it again and this time I'll prepare. I'll take more than seven days to do it. I'll take, you know, three or four months. And if I get to the summit, you know, I'll raise the Navy SEAL flag. And then I thought, well, why not raise money for the SEALs that way, for the warrior fund. And so the Navy said, fine, we'll get a couple of SEALs together to train you. So I've been training on their base in Coronado Island in California for the last three weeks.

GLENN: That's insanity.

KOBOLD: Yeah.

GLENN: That's insanity. Most guys are -- have you cried yet?

KOBOLD: Close to it. They chased me up the seven story high thing called a cargo net and I'm relatively scared of heights and I --

GLENN: Oh, so you're going to climb Mt. Everest and you're afraid of heights.

KOBOLD: Yes. I didn't --

GLENN: What the hell is wrong with you? 20,000 feet and you still, you have like bubbles in your head still? What are you thinking, Michael?

KOBOLD: Well, it's not that scary on the mountain. The scariest part is crossing these ice ladders through the consume boom ice pool which is --

GLENN: Oh, I hate that part, the Khumbu ice fault. I hate that. That's the worst part of it.

KOBOLD: That is.

GLENN: I think anybody you talk to says the mountain's not that bad, but the Khumbu ice fault. What exactly, what is an ice ladder?

KOBOLD: Well, it's basically just your regular stepladder and except for that it's tied together to two or three more stepladders by just a couple of strings and then you lay that across this huge crevasse and you cross the crevasse by climbing over the ice ladders. And you can do this on your hands and knees or you can do it by just walking over it with your crampons attached to your boots and you fall --

GLENN: Your crap-ons?

KOBOLD: Crampons, crampons. They are these metal things to attach to your boots to make sure you can walk on ice.

GLENN: Oh, I thought it was for when you crapped on ice.

KOBOLD: In fact, when you go to the summit, you wear diapers, a lot of guys wear diapers because you are climbing for, you know, 12 to 18 hours straight.

GLENN: Yeah, I could hold it for 12 to 18 hours, but I don't, I don't think I would because how far is the fall if you fall through the ladder, the ice ladder?

KOBOLD: It depends. I mean, it could be as little as 30 feet and as much as 100, 150 feet. But there is a line that you can hold onto. It's just for how long. That's the problem. So they are teaching me on Coronado how to hold onto all sorts of things and one of the ways is to lock your arms, that way you are not straining your muscles.

GLENN: Are you going back to Coronado to train with the SEALs?

KOBOLD: I am indeed. I'm flying out on Friday.

GLENN: Good, because I know we have a lot of SEAL listeners to the program there in the San Diego area.

KOBOLD: Yes.

GLENN: Make Michael cry like a little girl. Make him cry. (Laughing). All right. So if somebody wants to get involved, I mean, how are you raising money?

KOBOLD: Well, we've set up a website. There is the official Navy SEAL warrior fund website which you can Google, look up online, and you can make donations straight to them. And we have a website that tracks my progress and my expedition's progress which is www.Everest-challenge.com, and it's pretty cool. We'll have live updates from the mountain as we climb up and Sir Ranulph Fiennes is coming with us this time with a BBC camera to film us doing this.

GLENN: You have to call us when you get to the very top. You have to call.

KOBOLD: Absolutely, I will.

GLENN: We'll get you the phone number. Call us on your satellite phone.

KOBOLD: I can't agree we'll have such a clear connection as in the studio.

GLENN: Well, there's already -- you won't give a flying crap. You'll just be like, "Help, help." You know, the worst part I would imagine climbing Everest is then you get up to the top and you're like, oh, crap, now I've got to go all the way down.

KOBOLD: Yeah, that's the hardest part because you get elated and you get excited that you've made it to the summit and now you've got to go all the way back down to safety because most people when they die, they usually die on the way back.

GLENN: Have you thought about bringing a sled?

KOBOLD: No such luck.

GLENN: Michael Kobold, thank you very much. We'll talk to you again. Next time I talk to you, we'll talk to you I guess from Everest.

KOBOLD: Sounds good. Thanks for having me, Glenn.

GLENN: You bet. We'll have all the information, we'll send it in the free e-mail newsletter today. You can sign up for that at GlennBeck.com, free e-mail newsletter today, help the Navy SEAL.

Glenn created "The Senate Fails to Condemn INFANTICIDE" in response to the Senate not passing Nebraska Senator Ben Sasses' bill banning infanticide early this year. In an effort to help support pro-life charities, Glenn first posted this for sale on eBay before being banned multiple times before we finally had enough and put it up for sale on bidpal.net.

At the time of this post, the bid was up to $4,700 — but we can do better than that. Please help us raise money for a good cause, you don't even have to display it anywhere in your home, you can just keep it in storage or something! If you want this priceless piece created by one of the most influential people in the world of art, place your bids here.

Can you remember the economic crisis of 2008 and how you felt when the news broke that Lehman Brothers had collapsed? I have found an economic threat that everyone needs to be aware of, so you can prepare yourself in case we see another 2008 type collapse. I am going to present the evidence to you and I urge you to verify everything and to form your own opinion.

What is that threat?

It is a bank called Deutsche Bank. They are by far the most dominant bank in Germany which is the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2018 they had €2.08 Trillion worth of assets and the second-placed bank (DZ Bank) had €506 Billion worth of assets. To show you how dominant this bank is, they have more assets than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th sized banks combined.
When we review a business there are three key parts to analysis:

  • Market sentiment
  • Business numbers
  • Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Deutsche Bank has a long history of potential scandals including going all the way back to World War 2 and dealing in Nazi gold. Below are five recent stories which have increased the negative sentiment around Deutsche Bank.

  1. In 2007, they purchased a portfolio of loans worth $7.8 billion and purchased insurance from Warren Buffets Company. It was discovered they did not set aside enough capital to cover any potential losses. Over the course of the ten years, they lost $1.6 billion, and when they sold the loan they did not update their financial statements to include the big loss
  2. The Panama Papers are an ongoing investigation looking for many things including offshore tax havens. These investigations have resulted in several heads of state resigning including in Iceland and Pakistan. Last November, 170 police raided 6 different offices in Frankfurt looking for evidence of money laundering.
  3. Estonia is a small country in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 1.3 million people and a GDP of €26 billion. In January, it was discovered Deutsche Bank got involved with a Danish bank called Danke Bank and processed over $230 billion worth of cross country payments (including from Soviet Russia) through one bank in Estonia.
  4. There have been rumors of issues with Deutsche for a while now and one of the solutions put forth was a merger with a bank called CommerzBank. The leaders of both companies met and they even got support from politicians. In April, news broke that the merger talks had failed because over worries the risks and costs would be too great.
  5. Last week in France, Investment banking boss Garth Ritchie and others were arrested in France over illicit tax transactions.

Business Numbers

Deutsche Bank is already struggling as they are losing staff, losing market share, and bonuses are expected to be down at least 10% and further rounds of cost-cutting to come. Now imagine the impact if business costs start going up.

The banking industry works in a very simple way. They raise funds through large bonds at low-interest rates and then sell those funds to business and individuals thru products like loans and credit cards at a higher interest rate which results in a potential profit.

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank tried raising money through several bonds. They paid 180bp (basis points) on a two-year bond and 230bp on a seven-year bond. Let me put this in context for you. There is a small bank in Spain called Caixabank which paid 225bp on a five-year bond and one of the larger banks in Spain, BBVA paid 130bp on a five-year bond.

  • How and why is a small bank in Spain getting a better deal on bonds than a huge bank in Germany?
  • Why is a large bank in Spain getting a bond 100bp cheaper than a German bank?
  • What does the market know that we do not?

Stock Price

Deutsche is also missing revenue projections which further hurt the business ability to survive and prosper. As you can imagine all of this news has a deep and lasting impact on its stock price which is in deep trouble. Before I share the stock price, I need to put this into the context of the market and the industry compared to the big economic crash of 2008. Below you will see a chart of some banking stocks from around the world with their peak price prior to the 2008 crash, the low of the 2008 recession and the price today:

As you can see from the above chart the banks in America have recovered from the 2008 recession by anywhere up 375% and JP Morgan has not only recovered its price in full but is constantly setting new high's. Ireland went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the EU/IMF following the 2008 crash and even our national bank has more than doubled its price since 2008. The worst performing bank I could find was Societe Generale which has issues but is still hovering around its 2008 low price levels.

Now let's put that into the context of Deutsche Bank. Not only has the stock not rebounded but it is over 65% below its 2008 low at $6.75.

Technical Analysis

When you are dealing with the stock market, you also have people who study pricing through technical analysis. Experts look at things like FIB sequences, trend lines, and support levels. Support levels are a key metric for a stock failing because are looking to find where it will find support and potentially bounce higher.

We are very close to a key support level ($6.40) and if the price goes below this level, there is no saying exactly how low the price could go. At least one company expects Deutsche to fall below this support level, as several weeks ago UBS downgraded the stock to a sell order. This news was compounded last Friday when rating agency Fitch, downgraded their credit rating to BBB or two levels above JUNK status.

Other Information

I know you are likely reading this and thinking "this bank must have smart people in charge and surely they have a plan, right?" I am sure there is a plan and while they have kept their cards close to their chest, they have spoken in the past about the areas they foresee having growth for the company – they include business in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Do they strike you as countries which are stable and will offer steady and reliable growth? Do you have to think really hard to imagine how this could go potentially very wrong?

Questions

I believe there is at least a solid case Deutsche is in a LOT of trouble. So what are possible scenarios for the future? I will lay out the key questions below but I must stress that it's impossible to say for sure what exactly will happen. One of the key numbers to remember here is they have roughly €50 billion worth of derivatives.

  • How likely is it that the bank can turn things around and survive?
  • How likely is it the bank continues to run into trouble, its stock price fails and eventually fails?
  • If you think it is likely it will fail, the question becomes what will the fallout be? Who will be affected?
  • Will they be bailed out?
  • If so, by whom? The German government, ECB, IMF, the Federal Reserve?
  • What will the German government think? Some members recently spoke out saying they would block public money for the proposed merger? Will they block funds if it failed?
  • Will other banks be exposed and affected? Will they have to take losses?
  • Will those losses be spread around or will one or more bank be mainly affect?
  • Will this affect the sentiment of the banking sector and cause a panic?
  • If there are issues and it starts affecting the stock prices, what will be the impact on other industries?

Last Question

The last question revolves solely around the banks and the regulators? How secure are the other banks? We all hear about how banks are now put through "stress tests" but how much trust do you put in those results? How much trust do you have in the regulators?

I know this may make me sound like a conspiracy theorist to some but it's an honest question. The Fed is on public record saying they want to keep this economy strong as long as possible. If a bank did not perform strongly in a stress test or even barely failed one, do you think they would report it?

Can you imagine the pressure that body would come under to stay silent? Can you imagine the rhetoric they would face with questions like, "Are you really going to fail one bank? Do you know how many people will lose their jobs if you do that?" Am I saying this is happening? No, but can you really rule it out 100% as a possibility?

I urge you to ponder on these questions, do your own research and find YOUR answers.

Update: The most freaquently asked question I have received from this column / show is how much time do we have to prepare. This is an impossible question to answer, as it could fail tomorrow, next week or might be next year. However I want to provide you a potential date for your diary – July 24th. That is when Deutsche will release their next earnings report and if it comes in below expectations, it could cause a further drop in price casting more doubt over the future viability of the bank.

Please support Jonathon's weekly podcast which is exclusive to the Blaze Media and available for FREE. He offers a unique perspective by promoting America's Founding Principles and brings every issue back to a set of core principles which are always based around the laws of nature. You can find links to his show by clicking here or by searching for Freedoms Disciple on your favorite audio platform.

Survey: Where do you stand on these conspiracy theories?

Thought Catalog / Unsplash

Have you seen this survey on the most-believed conspiracy theories in America?

It's no surprise the survey has been getting so much attention. The results are actually a pretty disturbing.

Infographic: Belief in Conspiracy Theories in the United States | Statista

I decided to put together a quick survey of my own, with slightly different wording.

Up-vote the ones you agree with and down-vote the ones you disagree with.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK alone. However, I would not be surprised to find out the government sealed evidence that others were involved.

If by "deep state" you mean long-time Washington power brokers who are used to calling the shots and now feel threatened by Donald Trump not listening to their advice or council — yes, I do believe that many people like that are working against him and his administration.

Whether alien bodies are in Area 51 or not, I do believe the government knows more about UFOs than they have told us.

I do not believe the U.S. government was involved in 9/11, but as we know, NSA advisor Sandy Berger was caught destroying documents from the national archives related to both Bush and Clinton. All U.S. administrations have been to close to the Saudis, and the Saudis were involved in 9/11 at some level.

I believe the climate is always changing — it's natural. I would be willing to accept that man MAY play a role in this. But I do not believe in the solutions currently being discussed, nor do I believe the intention of most political activists are pure.

Any talk of the Illuminati provides the true dangers to man's freedom — like very powerful NGOS and men like George Soros — a perfect cover.

The U.S. government has done some horrible experiments on people and land — I also suspect they will do more things in the future. But I do not believe in the systematic spraying of chemicals using chemtrails.

The moon landing was real, but I see a time coming when people will not be able to trust their eyes due to deep fakes.

What do you think?

Let me know in the comments section below.