Forecasters: U.S. in 14 month recession



NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy fell into a recession last spring and will contract sharply this quarter as more than 200,000 workers per month are added to the rolls of the unemployed, a survey said on Monday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters removed some of the glow from an earlier report showing industrial output rebounded in October after hurricane disruptions produced a stunning fall in September.

Early data from the factory sector also supported the grim view of the forecasters, showing manufacturing in New York state tumbled in November to yet another record low.

Japan on Monday joined the euro zone in recession. Although the U.S. economy contracted in third quarter, that followed two consecutive quarters of growth, albeit helped by government stimulus payments. The arbiter of U.S. business cycles has not yet declared the economy in recession.

The latest data and surveys provided new evidence that turmoil in credit markets was tightening its grip over the economy, which is unlikely to see any relief soon from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"The early signs suggest that the November data cycle is likely to be extremely weak," analysts at RDQ economics said in a research note.

On Wall Street, stocks were weaker in volatile trade, though off early lows, while government bonds were mixed and the dollar was a shade higher against the yen.

The Philadelphia Fed's survey predicted gross domestic product would shrink by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, a sharp downgrade from the previous prediction of 0.7 percent growth.

It said the U.S. economy entered a recession in April and that it will last 14 months, which would make it one of the longest recessions since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Only the 16-month recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s were longer. Even though the economy was technically growing in April this year it would not be unprecedented for the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession was occurring then.

The NBER measures recessions by "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy," rather than the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of falling

GDP.

The recession of March-November 2001 did not include two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. This year, the economy has lost 1.2 million jobs since an uninterrupted labor market slump started in January, while manufacturing has contracted for most of the year.

The survey predicted the economy would shed an average of 222,400 jobs per month this quarter. It said first-quarter GDP would decline by 1.1 pct and the unemployment rate would hit 7.0 percent during the first three months of next year.

A separate report by the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 1.3 percent in October after a downwardly revised September drop of 3.7 percent -- the biggest fall in more than 62 years.

The September slide in industrial output was the steepest since a 5.0 percent decline in February 1946.

The Fed said the revision to September output resulted, in part, from a larger estimate of the impacts that Hurricanes Gustav and Ike had on the chemical industry. This also set a lower base for October.

"The October improvement is not anything to cheer about," said Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a private economic research organization.

"EMPIRE" STRICKEN

In a separate report, the New York Fed said its "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 25.43 in November from minus 24.62 in October. That was the lowest reading on manufacturing in New York state since the inception of the index in July 2001.

The report "paints a dim picture," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital, in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Still, this is not exactly surprising but more confirmation," he added.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected an even weaker reading of minus 26.10.

The report, based on a survey of manufacturers in New York state, was generally bleak. The indexes for new orders and shipments slid to record lows, while the measures for unfilled orders, employment and inventories all slipped to their lowest levels since late 2001.

As with many recent reports, the one silver lining was that inflation measures fell, which should give the Federal Reserve leeway to continue holding interest rates low as it fights the effects of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

The prices paid index fell for the fourth straight month and the prices received index tumbled to its lowest level in more than three years, the report said.

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Everything comes down to the two Senate runoffs in Georgia. If we lose both races, we lose the country. Democrats know this and are pouring in millions to usher in a Marxist agenda.

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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) joined the "Glenn Beck Radio Program" to explain how mail-in ballots are typically disqualified during recounts at a far higher rate than in-person, Election Day ballots, and why this is "good news" for President Donald Trump's legal battle over the election.

"One of the things that gives the greatest cause for optimism is, this election ... there's a pretty marked disparity in terms of how the votes were distributed. On Election Day, with in-person voting, Donald Trump won a significant majority of the votes cast on in-person voting on Election Day. Of mail-in voting, Joe Biden won a significant majority of the votes cast early on mail-in voting," Cruz explained.

"Now, here's the good news: If you look historically to recounts, if you look historically to election litigation, the votes cast in person on Election Day tend to stand. It's sort of hard to screw that up. Those votes are generally legal, and they're not set aside. Mail-in votes historically have a much higher rate of rejection … when they're examined, there are a whole series of legal requirements that vary state by state, but mail-in votes consistently have a higher rate of rejection, which suggests that as these votes begin being examined and subjected to scrutiny, that you're going to see Joe Biden's vote tallies go down. That's a good thing," he added. "The challenge is, for President Trump to prevail, he's got to run the table. He's got to win, not just in one state but in several states. That makes it a lot harder to prevail in the litigation. I hope that he does so, but it is a real challenge and we shouldn't try to convince ourselves otherwise."

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Fox News senior meteorologist Janice Dean is perhaps even more disgusted with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) for his coronavirus response than BlazeTV's Stu Burguiere (read what Stu has to say on the subject here), and for a good reason.

She lost both of her in-laws to COVID-19 in New York's nursing homes after Gov. Cuomo's infamous nursing home mandate, which Cuomo has since had scrubbed from the state's website and blamed everyone from the New York Post to nursing care workers to (every leftist's favorite scapegoat) President Donald Trump.

Janice joined Glenn and Stu on the "Glenn Beck Radio Program" Tuesday to ask why mainstream media is not holding Gov. Cuomo — who recently published a book about his leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic — accountable?

"I'm vocal because I have not seen the mainstream media ask these questions or demand accountability of their leaders. [Cuomo] really has been ruling with an iron fist, and every time he does get asked a question, he blames everybody else except the person that signed that order," Janice said.

"In my mind, he's profiting off the over 30 thousand New Yorkers, including my in-laws, that died by publishing a book on 'leadership' of New York," she added. "His order has helped kill thousands of relatives of New York state. And this is not political, Glenn. This is not about Republican or Democrat. My in-laws were registered Democrats. This is not about politics. This is about accountability for something that went wrong, and it's because of your [Cuomo's] leadership that we're put into this situation."

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As America grows divided and afraid to disagree with the Democrats' woke plan for America, Megyn Kelly is ready to fight back for the truth. For nearly two decades, she navigated the volatile and broken world of the media. But as America leans on independent voices more than ever, she's breaking new ground with "The Megyn Kelly Show."

She joined the latest Glenn Beck Podcast to break down what's coming next after the election: Black Lives Matter is mainstream, leftists are making lists of Trump supporters, and the Hunter Biden scandal is on the back burner.

Megyn and Glenn reminisce about their cable news days (including her infamous run-in with then-presidential candidate Donald Trump) and to look into the chaotic and shady world of journalism and the growing entitlement it's bred. For example, many conservatives have been shocked by how Fox News handled the election.

Megyn defended Fox News, saying she believes Fox News' mission "is a good one," but also didn't hold back on hosts like Neil Cavuto, who cut off a White House briefing to fact check it — something she never would have done, even while covering President Obama.

Megyn also shared this insightful takeaway from her time at NBC: "Jane Fonda was an ass."

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