Forecasters: U.S. in 14 month recession



NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy fell into a recession last spring and will contract sharply this quarter as more than 200,000 workers per month are added to the rolls of the unemployed, a survey said on Monday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters removed some of the glow from an earlier report showing industrial output rebounded in October after hurricane disruptions produced a stunning fall in September.

Early data from the factory sector also supported the grim view of the forecasters, showing manufacturing in New York state tumbled in November to yet another record low.

Japan on Monday joined the euro zone in recession. Although the U.S. economy contracted in third quarter, that followed two consecutive quarters of growth, albeit helped by government stimulus payments. The arbiter of U.S. business cycles has not yet declared the economy in recession.

The latest data and surveys provided new evidence that turmoil in credit markets was tightening its grip over the economy, which is unlikely to see any relief soon from the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

"The early signs suggest that the November data cycle is likely to be extremely weak," analysts at RDQ economics said in a research note.

On Wall Street, stocks were weaker in volatile trade, though off early lows, while government bonds were mixed and the dollar was a shade higher against the yen.

The Philadelphia Fed's survey predicted gross domestic product would shrink by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter, a sharp downgrade from the previous prediction of 0.7 percent growth.

It said the U.S. economy entered a recession in April and that it will last 14 months, which would make it one of the longest recessions since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Only the 16-month recessions in the mid-1970s and early 1980s were longer. Even though the economy was technically growing in April this year it would not be unprecedented for the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession was occurring then.

The NBER measures recessions by "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy," rather than the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of falling

GDP.

The recession of March-November 2001 did not include two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. This year, the economy has lost 1.2 million jobs since an uninterrupted labor market slump started in January, while manufacturing has contracted for most of the year.

The survey predicted the economy would shed an average of 222,400 jobs per month this quarter. It said first-quarter GDP would decline by 1.1 pct and the unemployment rate would hit 7.0 percent during the first three months of next year.

A separate report by the Federal Reserve showed U.S. industrial production rose a stronger-than-expected 1.3 percent in October after a downwardly revised September drop of 3.7 percent -- the biggest fall in more than 62 years.

The September slide in industrial output was the steepest since a 5.0 percent decline in February 1946.

The Fed said the revision to September output resulted, in part, from a larger estimate of the impacts that Hurricanes Gustav and Ike had on the chemical industry. This also set a lower base for October.

"The October improvement is not anything to cheer about," said Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a private economic research organization.

"EMPIRE" STRICKEN

In a separate report, the New York Fed said its "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 25.43 in November from minus 24.62 in October. That was the lowest reading on manufacturing in New York state since the inception of the index in July 2001.

The report "paints a dim picture," said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital, in Greenwich, Connecticut. "Still, this is not exactly surprising but more confirmation," he added.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected an even weaker reading of minus 26.10.

The report, based on a survey of manufacturers in New York state, was generally bleak. The indexes for new orders and shipments slid to record lows, while the measures for unfilled orders, employment and inventories all slipped to their lowest levels since late 2001.

As with many recent reports, the one silver lining was that inflation measures fell, which should give the Federal Reserve leeway to continue holding interest rates low as it fights the effects of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

The prices paid index fell for the fourth straight month and the prices received index tumbled to its lowest level in more than three years, the report said.

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Former President Barack Obama sat down with CNN's Anderson Cooper recently for an interview scheduled to air in full on Friday. During the interview, Obama scoffed at the idea that critical race theory could be a "threat to our Republic," while claiming that "right-wing media venues" are "stoking the fear and resentment of a white population."

On the radio program Wednesday, Glenn Beck set the record straight: the right-wing media's efforts to call out the far-left have nothing to do with race in America, but rather everything to do with protecting our way of life that is being threatened more and more each day by the radical, Marxist ideology seeping into government.

"Mr. Obama, you lied," Glenn asserted. "You used the IRS to hunt down your enemy. You spied on the media. And your health care package, which was supposed to save every American $3,000 per year, has helped some, perhaps, while raising the cost of everyone's health care in double and triple percentages. But the worst thing that you did, is you planted, you watered, and you protected the Marxist seeds, by crying race."

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Our sacred republic has never been in more danger than it is today. Little by little, industry by industry, the far Left is fundamentally transforming the country we love. And it's an aggressive, hostile kind of takeover we've only seen in some of the world's darkest societies.

On Glenn TV this week, Glenn Beck exposes how the Biden administration and Democrats are aggressively scrambling to reset everything: our free and fair voting system, our kids' education, our policing, immigration and border security, our economy, our military, and our energy supply.

Finally, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) joins to discuss how Biden's "woke" policies are threatening America's national security and our way of life.

Watch the full episode below:

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Apparel company The North Face recently stated that it would no longer make jackets for oil and gas companies because it doesn't want to be associated with the fossil fuel industry. In response, Colorado-based oil and gas company Liberty Oilfield Services rented full billboard ads to remind The North Face of the truth: "Globally, 60% of all clothing fibers are made out of oil and gas. For North Face, it is likely 90% or more."

Liberty CEO Chris Wright joined Glenn Beck on the radio program Tuesday to discuss just how much of our economy — beyond outdoor apparel and energy — wouldn't exist in a world without fossil fuels. And he warns that many companies are now deeming this truth to be "controversial."

"I have been for years, trying to get a real, honest dialogue about energy going," Chris told Glenn. "So we took this opportunity to point out that North Face jackets are ... almost completely made out of oil and gas. How can you choose not to associate with the essential material your equipment [is] made out of? So we put a billboard up ... the billboard says, 'That North Face puffer looks good on you. And it was made from fossil fuels.'"

"Most billboard companies did not want to run that billboard. They thought it was controversial," he added. "And Facebook put a hold on our brief video just saying the jacket looks good, this is what it's made out of. In today's world, that is controversial."

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During a lecture at the Yale School of Medicine's Child Study Center, a New York City-based psychiatrist told students and faculty that she fantasizes about "unloading a revolver into the head of any white person that got in my way," among several other shockingly race-hating statements.

In April, Dr. Aruna Khilanani — a New York-based forensic psychiatrist and psychoanalyst — delivered the talk called "The Psychopathic Problem of the White Mind" virtually as part of the Yale School of Medicine's "Child Study Center Grand Rounds," a lecture program for "trainees in child psychiatry, psychology, and social work, faculty, clinicians, and scientists."

On the radio program Monday, Glenn Beck shared several quotes from an audio recording of the lecture provided by Bari Weiss, a former opinion writer and editor for the New York Times.

Here are a few of Khilanani's statements from the audio:

  • "This is the cost of talking to white people at all. The cost of your own life, as they suck you dry. There are no good apples out there. White people make my blood boil."
  • "I had fantasies of unloading a revolver into the head of any white person that got in my way, burying their body, and wiping my bloody hands as I walked away relatively guiltless with a bounce in my step. Like I did the world a f***ing favor."
  • "White people are out of their minds. And they have been for a long time."
  • "White people feel that we are bullying them when we bring up race. They feel that we should be thanking them for all that they have done for us. They are confused, and so are we. We keep forgetting that directly talking about race is a waste of our breath."
  • "We are asking a demented, violent predator who thinks that they are a saint or a superhero, to accept responsibility. It ain't gonna happen. They have five holes in their brain. It's like banging your head against a brick wall. It's just like sort of not a good idea."

"We must take a stand. We must speak out, because this is evil," Glenn said in response to Khilanani's shocking lecture. "I don't care who you voted for, you know this is evil."

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