U.S. dollar rally may stall at the start of 2009

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The reality of low interest rates and deep economic recession should finally start to catch up with the U.S. dollar in 2009, after risk aversion and de-leveraging helped push the currency to multi-year highs.

The advance -- which has pushed the dollar up almost 20 percent against a basket of six currencies .DXY since July -- is "artificial" and may subside once extreme risk aversion eases and global markets stabilize, analysts said.

"Foundations for the dollar's recent rally have not been solid. The result of repatriation, deleveraging, quantitative easing and a major scarcity of dollars," said Bob Sinche, head of global FX and rate strategy at The Bank of America in New York. "But now we are bound for a correction."

Sinche said euro/dollar may be trading at 1.38 by the end of December and that the dollar may rapidly dip to 1.44 to the euro by the first quarter of 2009 before the pair resumes a "more gradual sell-off."

The European currency was last trading in New York at $1.2804 compared with a record high of $1.6038 touched on July 15. Demand for the greenback rose as the financial crisis deepened and even as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates while the economy slowed.

"The dollar was at the receiving end of leverage flows and also concerns about the euro zone's ability to navigate its first systemic crisis," said Daniel Katzive, director for global foreign exchange at Credit Suisse Securities in New York. "But the U.S. currency is no longer very cheap. Actually, in same pairs, the undervaluation of the dollar has been erased remarkably quickly."

Goldman Sachs' senior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen also said on Thursday the U.S. dollar now is about at the level "it should be."

Katzive at Credit Suisse added it may be premature to call the end of de-leveraging and that price action in euro/dollar may be choppy until the end of the year.

However, he said extreme risk aversion is beginning to show signs of easing. And that combined with lower rates and a weak economy, this should start to add pressure on the dollar. The bank forecasts euro/dollar to trade as low as 1.23 in the near term but rebounding to 1.37 in about six months.

In a sign risk may be easing, most currency strategists in a Reuters poll released on Wednesday said they expect volatility in the euro, sterling and yen against the dollar to decrease in the next few weeks.

The poll implied monthly annualized volatility of 14.8 percent for the euro against the dollar in December, down from the 23.6 percent seen in November.

"If the equity markets manage to hold on to some of its gains, with some relaxation in risk aversion, we may see a pullback in euro/dollar," said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in New York. "Some weakening in the dollar is not inconceivable."

RATE CONVERGENCE

Still, for many analysts, the outlook for the dollar in the next couple of months will depend greatly on the impact that lower benchmark interest rates across the globe will have on multiple currencies.

Most major central banks have been cutting benchmark rates, aggressively trying to revive local financial markets and economies since the global financial crisis deepened in September.

This week alone, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand all matched or exceeded easing expectations at rate-setting meetings.

Earlier on Thursday the ECB cut interest rates by 75 basis points in its biggest move ever. Its main refinancing rate now stands at 2.50 percent, the lowest in nearly 2-1/2 years, but more than double the U.S. Federal Reserve's benchmark rate at 1 percent.

But while some analysts like Katzive at Credit Suisse expect interest rate differentials to gradually weigh on the dollar in 2009, others argue a correction won't be immediate.

"Global yield differentials are collapsing and it is perhaps just a few months before rates in the eurozone and the UK fall very close to the US rates," said Vassili Serebriakov, a senior currency strategist at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.

"But while rate convergence could remove some of the recent support for the dollar, once financial conditions stabilize and risk appetite returns, the yield attraction of currencies such as the pound and the euro over the dollar is likely to have disappeared," he added.

Wells Fargo forecasts euro/dollar will be trading at 1.26 in six months and at 1.28 in one year.

Copyright 2008 Reuters. click for restrictions

Former Minneapolis police Officer Derek Chauvin is facing several charges for his role in the death of George Floyd. But attorney Andrew Branca, who specializes in self-defense law, joined Glenn Beck on the radio program Tuesday to explain exactly what must be proven in order for those charges to stand.

Did Chauvin act reasonably in the context of the entire situation? Were his actions directly responsible for Floyd's death, or could it be blamed on factors beyond Chauvin's control?

Branca also argued that the prosecutor committed misconduct serious enough for a potential appeal, how political tension makes it "impossible" for a fair trial, why he would vote not guilty, and what sentence Chauvin is facing if the actual jury disagrees.

Watch the video below for more details:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

From food and job shortages to the prices of building materials "skyrocketing," the world is currently moving into what could be the "perfect storm" for politicians to push for a universal basic income, explained Glenn Beck on the radio program.

"We really need to look at the economy and be prepared for what is coming," Glenn said. "I feel like my job is to warn you of the things that are coming and, when I can, give you ways to navigate around. But at least so you can hear the warning and decide yourself what you're going to do with that."

Glenn explained that now, for the first time, there is a shortage of starter homes and building supplies just as increasing numbers of millennials are in the market. Also, analysts are predicting that shortages of food items and products such as pork, polystyrene, and chlorine could send prices soaring. Then there's the matter of unemployment, kicked off by the COVID-19 pandemic and likely to worsen because of the technological revolution, there are going to be fewer and fewer jobs for people to do.

"We are creating this perfect storm, right now, where universal basic income is going to be embraced by people," Glenn warned. "It's just this nasty cycle that we're beginning, and we're watching it unfold right in front of us."

Watch the video clip below to hear more from Glenn:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

More than 100 business leaders and CEOs from some of the world's largest corporations recently met during a Zoom meeting to discuss how they can band together to fight "election integrity laws," like the voting law recently passed in Georgia.

On the radio program this week, Glenn Beck explained how this government-corporation partnership is not only proof of fascism, but it is also demonstrative of how our lives will be under The Great Reset: government and large corporations will work together to set the rules, and the freedoms of the individual American will be squashed.

"I want you to understand ... everything that they have ever said about, 'oh, it's a conspiracy theory' about The Great Reset, you can throw that in the garbage now," Glenn began. "Something happened this weekend that is absolutely unprecedented. I have done this job, for ... I don't even know how many years, almost 50 years, and I've never seen anything like this.

"People that were on the [Zoom] call, they talked about potential ways to show how they opposed the legislation, including ... delaying investments in states. That's blackmail," Glenn continued.

"So these corporations, they're going to act as a — what? A secondary government? ... I don't know. I didn't elect the CEO of Merck. Did you?" he said.

"Corporations [are] openly meeting and coordinating efforts to change laws," Glenn added. "This is fascism, guys! Fascism is when government and corporations work hand in hand. That is fascism."

Watch the video clip below to hear more from Glenn:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

A virus has escaped the university labs and is super-spreading through our culture. It's called Critical Race THEORY and what used to be a fringe topic in the academic world is now a dangerous Marxist REALITY infecting our public schools where students are taught the U.S. is a "parasitic system" based on the "invasion" of "white male settlers."

On Glenn TV this week, Glenn Beck exposes how some teachers are being instructed to "cash in on kids' inherent empathy" in order to train them to become "activist intellectuals," starting as early as first grade.

CRT is an absolute toxin to America and Glenn warns that in just one generation the Constitution, freedom, and true equality will be totally destroyed. Yet, any opposition to the spread of this disease is shouted down as racism and bigotry. If Critical Race Theory is not already in your local school curriculum, it will be soon.

Joined by Asra Nomani, Vice President for Strategy and Investigations at Parents Defending Education, Glenn arms you with the facts about CRT so you can stand up to this tyranny in your community.

Watch the full episode below:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.