I Am Asking You to Trust Yourself




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My critics are right. I have something in common with Howard Beale:

(BEGIN 'NETWORK' VIDEO CLIP)

PETER FINCH AS HOWARD BEALE: I want you to get up now. I want you to get out of your chairs and go to the window. Right now. I want you to go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell. I want you to yell: "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take this any more!"

(END VIDEO CLIP)

I have noticed a trend now in any story about me in the press. But it's not really about me — it's about you.

People are telling you to not trust me because I'm "crazy," something to gain or am just a Republican hack in disguise. The obvious insinuation is, if you're watching, you're one of the three as well.

But what they've missed is I am not asking you to trust me. I am asking you to trust yourself.

People try to say this is all about ratings. Well, my opinions have not always been so popular. They just recently have come into fashion I guess.

Another thing my critics point out is the fact that I cry like a little girl. I am sorry if that destroys my credibility with you, but I stopped hiding or being ashamed of who I am a long time ago. If you don't like it, that's OK. I am who I am — nothing more and nothing less. Big girls don't cry, but I do.

I feel passionately about my country and the people in it. I — like you — believe in its promise and think that over the years that promise has been used distorted and tarnished. I don't believe in the promise of government. I believe in the promise of the dreamer — the one whose face drips sweat from hard work, but refuses to give up because they know they can still change the course of their lives.

Only in America can this still happen, but I think our collective gut is warning us that this is in jeopardy.

For those of you who have followed me over the years, you know that I — like you — wanted change last November. The right was frustrated, because we felt as though we were betrayed by the Republicans on things like big government, debt and border security.

We all want change.

To me at least, not enough Americans demanded answers to the question what kind of change? In the end, they all claimed change. The real emotion felt by almost all Americans was turned into a bumper sticker and the game started all over again. It's like a sad game of musical chairs with each of the players just switching positions: for earmarks when in power, against them when not. We can't afford this debt when out of power, can't spend enough when in power.

When I said I wanted change, what I meant was: No more lies, games, earmarks or politicians saying one thing and doing another. Don't do the right thing for your party or special interest group. Do the right thing for the country even at your own political peril. Honesty is what you say or do when people aren't watching. Integrity comes from doing the right thing even when it hurts.

I know everything is seen these days in this prism of the right vs. Obama. Well, this isn't about the president. I don't think it would have been any different if McCain would have won. Maybe we just need a new dividing line: political game players from honest citizens. Or, better yet, almost every current politician from their seats of power.

We have come to a very dangerous point in our country's history. America doesn't trust anyone or anything anymore. Everyone tells you that they are the one you can believe in, they are different, that they are the one that you can trust to bring about change. Yet, they never do.

So do I ask you to trust me? Nope. Instead, I ask you to do something that this whole broken system of government and media has taught you not to do: trust yourself. Empower yourself. Take charge of your own life. Don't take my or anyone else's word for anything. Read, question every angle and trust your gut.

Thomas Jefferson said, "Question with boldness even the existence of God; because if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear."

But that's the problem. We don't have honest questioning anymore. Everyone has an agenda.

I think that's what I liked about Tim Russert: honest questioning. No matter what side of the aisle you were on, he asked the tough questions and was fair. His agenda was the truth. I had only been in TV a short while when he passed away. But, I was amazed how in journalism he was universally loved, they all said, "They don't make 'em like him anymore." Why? No one made Tim Russert. He made himself — as we all do by the way we choose to live our lives. When journalists decide that the only thing that sends a chill down their legs is integrity, we will be able to trust them again.

The line of journalism has been blurred by those who can hide in the fuzziness. I am not a journalist. I am an opinion maker — no different or better than you. I have found myself here at this incredible position at an amazing time. I don't take it lightly, but I also don't hesitate to give you my opinion. It is what they pay me to do. It was fun as always until it counts.

It counts. You should know I know that.

I realized that I am a guest in your home every night and many don't know who I am. So let me tell you:

I am an imperfect guy. In my life I have done some pretty bad things — not jail-worthy, but definitely blush-worthy. I am a recovering alcoholic and I feel like a recovering dirt-bag too. I stopped drinking in the '90s and then really sobered up as I found faith in the late '90s. I am a small businessman: radio, TV, Internet, books and I print a news and humor magazine. I built it from scratch with the help of an amazing group of people. In 1999 I couldn't afford my rent of $695 a month.

Things have changed and as of right now my business is doing well, but like you I'm concerned about tomorrow.

It is true to say, I am not the most well-educated guy on TV — one guy lately has become Andy Bernard from "The Office," just so desperate to let everyone know that he went to Cornell. I didn't. I didn't go to college until I was in my thirties. When I did go, I went as a special student: I didn't go to get a degree nor did I receive one. I went to find some answers, but due to the "broke" part of divorce, I could only afford one semester. So, instead of college, I went to the bookstore. I still go to the bookstore.

While it isn't Cornell, I'm hoping self-education can work 5 percent as well as it did for Mark Twain, Henry Ford and Benjamin Franklin. My imperfect education continues, now thankfully with the help of some dedicated researchers, historians and educators have volunteered to help me find the answers I seek. Many of them do this because they sense some of the same things I do.

The one thing I didn't do when I was drinking — thank goodness — was gamble. What I am doing right now is the biggest risk of my life and it is a game I have gone into knowing that I most likely will lose. The odds are not in my favor — because of what I have come to believe and then say, I am making no friends on either side of the aisle. Believe what you will on why I am here, but I am sitting at this table playing my cards face up in hopes that others will join me soon.

I am a father of four. On Saturday night, after I had tucked my children into bed, I checked my e-mail. An old friend had sent me a note about Bill Maher's show. Maher had assembled a lynch mob that all agreed that I am dangerous and crazy; that I make it more likely that something tragic would befall our president — my president. They also hinted that if another Timothy McVeigh would appear, it would be my fault. This from the same people saying they were being intimidated into silence just a few months ago:

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL MAHER, HOST OF 'REAL TIME': I would never be the person who says you have to watch what you say, because...

KEITH OLBERMANN, MSNBC: Yes!

(LAUGHTER)

MAHER: No, really. I'm not for that...

OLBERMANN: No, no.

MAHER: That's an argument that's given a lot: You can't say this because a borderline person might take it and then do this. I'm sorry, that's the price of living in a free-speech country. And I do want to live in one because I make my living in it.

OK, but you know, I must say, Tim McVeigh in 1995, if you recall, this was the same kind of talking that made him blow up that building.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Unbelievable.

Let me be clear: If someone tries to harm another person in the name of the Constitution or the "truth" behind 9/11 or anything else, they are just as dangerous and crazy as those we don't seem to recognize anymore, who kill in the name of Allah.

There are enemies both foreign and domestic. Call it fear-mongering or call it the truth. Either way, remember: You are the key. While you search for the truth, they will try to demean you.


If we can put principles over parties and do the right thing — not the easy thing — we will heal this nation and restore her as the beacon of freedom for all those not just yearning to breathe free, but for those who respect the hard work and sacrifice that makes it possible.

(BEGIN 'NETWORK' VIDEO CLIP)

PETER FINCH AS HOWARD BEALE: Listen to me! Television is not the truth! If you want truth, go to God, go to your guru, go to yourself, because that's the only place you'll ever find any real truth! But, man, you're never going to get any truth from us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

What do you think? Send your comments to: glennbeck@foxnews.com

Watch Glenn Beck weekdays at 5 p.m. ET on FOX News Channel


 

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Can you remember the economic crisis of 2008 and how you felt when the news broke that Lehman Brothers had collapsed? I have found an economic threat that everyone needs to be aware of, so you can prepare yourself in case we see another 2008 type collapse. I am going to present the evidence to you and I urge you to verify everything and to form your own opinion.

What is that threat?

It is a bank called Deutsche Bank. They are by far the most dominant bank in Germany which is the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2018 they had €2.08 Trillion worth of assets and the second-placed bank (DZ Bank) had €506 Billion worth of assets. To show you how dominant this bank is, they have more assets than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th sized banks combined.
When we review a business there are three key parts to analysis:

  • Market sentiment
  • Business numbers
  • Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Deutsche Bank has a long history of potential scandals including going all the way back to World War 2 and dealing in Nazi gold. Below are five recent stories which have increased the negative sentiment around Deutsche Bank.

  1. In 2007, they purchased a portfolio of loans worth $7.8 billion and purchased insurance from Warren Buffets Company. It was discovered they did not set aside enough capital to cover any potential losses. Over the course of the ten years, they lost $1.6 billion, and when they sold the loan they did not update their financial statements to include the big loss
  2. The Panama Papers are an ongoing investigation looking for many things including offshore tax havens. These investigations have resulted in several heads of state resigning including in Iceland and Pakistan. Last November, 170 police raided 6 different offices in Frankfurt looking for evidence of money laundering.
  3. Estonia is a small country in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 1.3 million people and a GDP of €26 billion. In January, it was discovered Deutsche Bank got involved with a Danish bank called Danke Bank and processed over $230 billion worth of cross country payments (including from Soviet Russia) through one bank in Estonia.
  4. There have been rumors of issues with Deutsche for a while now and one of the solutions put forth was a merger with a bank called CommerzBank. The leaders of both companies met and they even got support from politicians. In April, news broke that the merger talks had failed because over worries the risks and costs would be too great.
  5. Last week in France, Investment banking boss Garth Ritchie and others were arrested in France over illicit tax transactions.

Business Numbers

Deutsche Bank is already struggling as they are losing staff, losing market share, and bonuses are expected to be down at least 10% and further rounds of cost-cutting to come. Now imagine the impact if business costs start going up.

The banking industry works in a very simple way. They raise funds through large bonds at low-interest rates and then sell those funds to business and individuals thru products like loans and credit cards at a higher interest rate which results in a potential profit.

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank tried raising money through several bonds. They paid 180bp (basis points) on a two-year bond and 230bp on a seven-year bond. Let me put this in context for you. There is a small bank in Spain called Caixabank which paid 225bp on a five-year bond and one of the larger banks in Spain, BBVA paid 130bp on a five-year bond.

  • How and why is a small bank in Spain getting a better deal on bonds than a huge bank in Germany?
  • Why is a large bank in Spain getting a bond 100bp cheaper than a German bank?
  • What does the market know that we do not?

Stock Price

Deutsche is also missing revenue projections which further hurt the business ability to survive and prosper. As you can imagine all of this news has a deep and lasting impact on its stock price which is in deep trouble. Before I share the stock price, I need to put this into the context of the market and the industry compared to the big economic crash of 2008. Below you will see a chart of some banking stocks from around the world with their peak price prior to the 2008 crash, the low of the 2008 recession and the price today:

As you can see from the above chart the banks in America have recovered from the 2008 recession by anywhere up 375% and JP Morgan has not only recovered its price in full but is constantly setting new high's. Ireland went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the EU/IMF following the 2008 crash and even our national bank has more than doubled its price since 2008. The worst performing bank I could find was Societe Generale which has issues but is still hovering around its 2008 low price levels.

Now let's put that into the context of Deutsche Bank. Not only has the stock not rebounded but it is over 65% below its 2008 low at $6.75.

Technical Analysis

When you are dealing with the stock market, you also have people who study pricing through technical analysis. Experts look at things like FIB sequences, trend lines, and support levels. Support levels are a key metric for a stock failing because are looking to find where it will find support and potentially bounce higher.

We are very close to a key support level ($6.40) and if the price goes below this level, there is no saying exactly how low the price could go. At least one company expects Deutsche to fall below this support level, as several weeks ago UBS downgraded the stock to a sell order. This news was compounded last Friday when rating agency Fitch, downgraded their credit rating to BBB or two levels above JUNK status.

Other Information

I know you are likely reading this and thinking "this bank must have smart people in charge and surely they have a plan, right?" I am sure there is a plan and while they have kept their cards close to their chest, they have spoken in the past about the areas they foresee having growth for the company – they include business in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Do they strike you as countries which are stable and will offer steady and reliable growth? Do you have to think really hard to imagine how this could go potentially very wrong?

Questions

I believe there is at least a solid case Deutsche is in a LOT of trouble. So what are possible scenarios for the future? I will lay out the key questions below but I must stress that it's impossible to say for sure what exactly will happen. One of the key numbers to remember here is they have roughly €50 billion worth of derivatives.

  • How likely is it that the bank can turn things around and survive?
  • How likely is it the bank continues to run into trouble, its stock price fails and eventually fails?
  • If you think it is likely it will fail, the question becomes what will the fallout be? Who will be affected?
  • Will they be bailed out?
  • If so, by whom? The German government, ECB, IMF, the Federal Reserve?
  • What will the German government think? Some members recently spoke out saying they would block public money for the proposed merger? Will they block funds if it failed?
  • Will other banks be exposed and affected? Will they have to take losses?
  • Will those losses be spread around or will one or more bank be mainly affect?
  • Will this affect the sentiment of the banking sector and cause a panic?
  • If there are issues and it starts affecting the stock prices, what will be the impact on other industries?

Last Question

The last question revolves solely around the banks and the regulators? How secure are the other banks? We all hear about how banks are now put through "stress tests" but how much trust do you put in those results? How much trust do you have in the regulators?

I know this may make me sound like a conspiracy theorist to some but it's an honest question. The Fed is on public record saying they want to keep this economy strong as long as possible. If a bank did not perform strongly in a stress test or even barely failed one, do you think they would report it?

Can you imagine the pressure that body would come under to stay silent? Can you imagine the rhetoric they would face with questions like, "Are you really going to fail one bank? Do you know how many people will lose their jobs if you do that?" Am I saying this is happening? No, but can you really rule it out 100% as a possibility?

I urge you to ponder on these questions, do your own research and find YOUR answers.

Update: The most freaquently asked question I have received from this column / show is how much time do we have to prepare. This is an impossible question to answer, as it could fail tomorrow, next week or might be next year. However I want to provide you a potential date for your diary – July 24th. That is when Deutsche will release their next earnings report and if it comes in below expectations, it could cause a further drop in price casting more doubt over the future viability of the bank.

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Survey: Where do you stand on these conspiracy theories?

Thought Catalog / Unsplash

Have you seen this survey on the most-believed conspiracy theories in America?

It's no surprise the survey has been getting so much attention. The results are actually a pretty disturbing.

Infographic: Belief in Conspiracy Theories in the United States | Statista

I decided to put together a quick survey of my own, with slightly different wording.

Up-vote the ones you agree with and down-vote the ones you disagree with.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK alone. However, I would not be surprised to find out the government sealed evidence that others were involved.

If by "deep state" you mean long-time Washington power brokers who are used to calling the shots and now feel threatened by Donald Trump not listening to their advice or council — yes, I do believe that many people like that are working against him and his administration.

Whether alien bodies are in Area 51 or not, I do believe the government knows more about UFOs than they have told us.

I do not believe the U.S. government was involved in 9/11, but as we know, NSA advisor Sandy Berger was caught destroying documents from the national archives related to both Bush and Clinton. All U.S. administrations have been to close to the Saudis, and the Saudis were involved in 9/11 at some level.

I believe the climate is always changing — it's natural. I would be willing to accept that man MAY play a role in this. But I do not believe in the solutions currently being discussed, nor do I believe the intention of most political activists are pure.

Any talk of the Illuminati provides the true dangers to man's freedom — like very powerful NGOS and men like George Soros — a perfect cover.

The U.S. government has done some horrible experiments on people and land — I also suspect they will do more things in the future. But I do not believe in the systematic spraying of chemicals using chemtrails.

The moon landing was real, but I see a time coming when people will not be able to trust their eyes due to deep fakes.

What do you think?

Let me know in the comments section below.