GLENN: I love this story. The Federal Reserve is puzzled by yield curve steepening. So you know, I'm talking completely out of my butt when it comes to the yield curve. Two years ago I didn't know jack about the economy. So take it for what it's worth. But basically it's like if you understand your own credit card. You have good credit, your yield curve is down. You have bad credit, yield curve is up. In other words, the bank is saying to you, "I don't think he's going to pay it back. So we're going to charge him 25% interest." Or, "No, he's good, he pays all of his bills on time; we'll charge him 6% interest." That's what it is, just on the federal government.
See, this is the thing. All of the people think, you know, all the treasury and all these stupid people, they are all walking around thinking that the laws of economics that work at your house somehow or another don't apply. It's like a parallel universe in Washington. It's just like a giant black hole. "Wouldn't it be neat... my gosh, why didn't we build the Super Collider underneath the Beltway in Washington? You know they are concerned about the supercollider, that it might open up, you know, space and there might be a black hole? I mean, if there's one place to be sucked into a black hole, shouldn't it be Washington? No, see, I'm just sayin'. Shouldn't it be ‑‑ I mean, it would be ‑‑ okay, sure, it will destroy the whole Earth and, you know, time as we know it will stop, yada, yada, yada, whatever. But wouldn't it be great knowing we're all going to die but they are going to die first? I mean, as we're all being pulled into a black hole, we're like, yeah, but congress is there first! Being crushed into a little teeny gravitational... anyway. S o I'm sorry. I digress.
So anyway, they're saying that, with the yield curve that bonds, that people are buying us, they are demanding a higher interest rate. When we sell our treasuries, which means our debt, when we sell our treasuries, people around the world are going, "I don't know. I think I'd rather ‑‑ I'm going to probably put my money over here. It might be safer if I just put it under this rock right now." And so we're having to raise our yield. We're starting to say, "No, no, no. Don't just put it under the rock. Invest in us because we're completely stable."
So here's what the treasury says. They're puzzled by the yield curve steepening. The Federal Reserve is studying significant moves in the U.S. Government bond market last week that could have big implications for the central bank's strategy to combat the country's recession. But the Fed ‑‑ I love this ‑‑ is not really sure what's driving the sharp rise in long dated bond yields and especially a widening gap between short and long‑term yields. So in other words, people are like, "Okay, I won't put my dollar under this rock. I'll give it to you, but I want it back in two years, okay? Two years. That's all. I want it back in two years." No, no, no, let's put it in 30 years. "I'm going to put it under the rock."
I mean, common sense will tell you this is, people don't trust that we're not going to dishonor their money. I mean, it's like investing in AIG. It's like when Barney Frank said, "Jeez, there's no problem with Fannie and Freddie. What are you talking about? It's a great investment and I would invest in that more." Yeah, right. Thank you for that. It's the same thing that's happening now except on a governmental level. Why? Why? How could that have possibly happened? Oh, I just ‑‑ try this crazy theory out. All of these things that were bad, okay, we didn't actually fix them. We just shifted the problem to the federal government and the treasury. Now, why would the treasury be having problems selling bond? That just doesn't ‑‑ it makes total sense if you use your brain! But the Fed, they can't figure it out. They said, "Well, it could be that the economy is getting so good that people just want to, you know, do other things like investing in, you know..." food staples? Fallout shelters? Guns? Bullets? What? "You know, good stuff that's... because things are so incredibly good." Yeah, okay. What are they smoking? Is dope ‑‑ I mean, I know that the Fed can say, "Hey, a banker's privilege," and then they don't have to answer any questions? Is it like that, too? Are they shooting heroin or smoking dope or something there? Is that legal there? "Bankers privilege." No, we're all on massive quantities of drugs. They ‑‑ I love this. Does it mean that the U.S. Treasury yields and steepening yield curves suggest an economic recovery is more certain, meaning less need for safe haven government bonds and a healthy demand for credit? If so, there might be less need for the Fed to expand the money supply by borrowing more U.S. Treasuries. Or... does the steepening yield curve mean investors are worried about the deterioration in the U.S. fiscal outlook or the potential of collapse in the U.S. dollar? "One of the two. I'm not really sure which one." Oh, it's got to be that everything's getting great; let's print more money. Jeez, what's wrong with us? At what point do we say common sense?