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GLENN: Oh, man, all right. So here is the, here's the latest, if I may. On its face, the probability of the U.S. defaulting on its spiraling debts seems highly unlikely. But that's not what the market now thinks. The price of insurance against a default, using derivatives uh oh, there's a bad word, using derivatives known as credit default swaps uh oh, there are three words that got us into trouble has jumped by more than 50% in the private market in recent months. According to CMA Datavision in London, a specialist in these kinds of contracts, it will now cost you .34% of the principal per year to buy default insurance on U.S. Government bonds. If you held $1 million in treasuries, insuring against the default will cost you $3400 for the year. Just a few months back, insuring those bonds would have cost less than $2,000 a year.
Let me explain this. You buy these, you buy an insurance policy. It's like you buy an insurance policy for your house. You're going to have to pay it off. You are going to have to you know, you are going to be stuck with it. So if something happens to it, you want to make sure you can get your investment, right? It's the same thing, except the only way your houses burn down is usually, you know, there has to be an electrical problem or a toaster or, you know, there's an arsonist or whatever. When you have a million dollars in treasuries, you just have to worry about the arsonist that is the United States congress, treasury, the Fed and the president. I've been warning you about the arsony that is arsony? Larceny.
STU: I like that because that is
GLENN: It should be arsony actually because it is larceny and arson at the same time combined.
STU: I like it, yeah.
GLENN: Arsony, larceny. Arsony. You have to worry about the arsonists that are burning down the U.S. dollar. So you would have to buy insurance for that. Well, you don't really need a lot of insurance. The U.S. dollar ain't going anywhere... right?
Let me continue to read: For investors the greatest danger is not that America could formally default on its debts. Why is that? Why is there no fear that America will default on their debts? We're concerned that banks would default, homeowners would default, California could default. Why doesn't the United States, why is no one worried that the United States will default on their debts?
PAT: We have printing presses.
GLENN: Exactly right. Governments don't default because they can print the money. For investors the greatest danger is not that America could formally default on its debts. It's that the government may informally default by unleashing inflation. It's hard now to see any other outcome. Anyone holding long term treasury bonds should demand pretty high listen to this. Now, here's the other shoe to fall. Make sure you have it. Investors are now saying this is risky. The insurance companies are now saying we need more money to insure a million dollars worth of treasuries because it's becoming more risky that the United States government will informally default by printing too much money and hyperinflation. Remember, I told you this at least a year ago, maybe two years ago. Read the Weimar Republic. That was insane. That was a conspiracy theory. That will never happy. Now the people if you believe in the free market, the people who have their money at stake are now saying, "Maybe we should increase that. Anyone holding long term interest treasury bonds should demand pretty high annual interest rates to compensate for the risks. So in other words, what are they saying? Don't take a 30 year treasury at 4.4% interest rate. I need an 8% interest rate, or whatever, 6%, 8%, 10%, 12%. Whatever the people who buy 30 year bonds and we're not talking about you.
PAT: Can I get 1600%?
GLENN: Yeah, I know. Talking, not talking about you. We're talking about the people who buy them in bulk. Who are those people? Remember, we now, most of our debt, or at least most of our new debt is on six can you imagine getting a six month revolving loan? These aren't 30 years. These are six months. So every six months we have to go and ask the bank basically, China, for another loan: Okay, could you guys carry this over another six months? Oh, and by the way, we want to add this to it. We're now trying to get anybody to buy longer term treasuries. What they're saying is don't do it. If you're going to try, if you are going to hold that money for 30 years, do you think 4% is worth that risk? Demand more. Why is that a bad thing? Because that means to borrow money, we have to pay it's just like your home loan. If you get a mortgage and it's 4% interest, that's what the yield is. This is our mortgage for our country. 4% interest, okay, that's not bad. For a 30 year house loan? Okay, that's good. I'll pay 4%. Now, are you going to be able to afford that house at 6%? 8%? 10%? The people who can buy the house, especially if you're somebody who you're already mortgaged to the limit, you just don't have any more money, what caused this financial problem? The reset of the loan. The reset of the mortgage interest rate. That's when people started losing their home. That's what this means. The 30 year treasury. The 10 year treasury. It's too low of an interest rate, and the world needs to demand a higher interest rate. That means anything they're conning you into believing that we can now afford, the loans are about to reset. And when they do, can we afford to make that payment? The answer is no. If you look at what our interest payment will be, you read about it in Common Sense, it is worse than what I described in Common Sense. That's now out. There's two million copies now that have sold. Common Sense is almost at the two million books sold. That doesn't happen. Two million books sold. I described that when people read it back in the summer, people said, that can't be right. I looked at some of the research: That can't be right. It's now worse because of the things that we have done. And those aren't my numbers. Those are from, like, whitehouse.gov. What I wrote about in Common Sense six or eight months ago was that we are going to have an interest payment about the size of the stimulus package every single year, an interest payment. If I said at the time, if everything goes well, we are guaranteed by, I think it's 2019, to pay almost $800 billion every month in interest alone. That's one stimulus package every single year... if the interest rate doesn't go up. The interest rate is going to go up. I am having now the same conversation that I had in 2003? I remember it vividly. I was in Philadelphia. And Stu, I was looking at you just like I'm looking at you now and said, help me out with the math. That doesn't work. Because if you can only afford the payment of that house now when there is 0% interest, what happens when you have 4% interest? Or 6 or 8. Oh, don't worry, things will get better. Don't do it. Do you remember? I am now having the same conversation with you about our federal government. We can afford this no, no, we cannot afford this. We cannot afford what we have now. We are bankrupt. The only reason why we don't, you don't see the stories on the news is because we have a printing press! We are in worse shape than California, but we have a printing press! And we haven't had an upgrade in our interest rates, but the banks of the world, the Chinas of the world, the individual investors of the world are going to begin to demand soon higher interest rates. When that happens, our loans reset. Then what do we do? There will only be one thing we can do: Inflate the money. Or... tax at, what, 80% for everyone? Remember, to pay off just the first debt, the first $12 trillion which next year will be $14.4 trillion, to pay the first $12 trillion, we have to take last year's Fortune 500 companies' profit, all 500 of them, all of the profit that they made and seize every dollar of that profit, for 145 years. That would pay off the first $12 trillion. We have unfunded liabilities, which means we have no funding for it whatsoever. The $12 trillion is what we owe China. We owe them that. What we have promised we are going to give people is $106 trillion. Please, please, buy gold! Sell everything you have and just buy gold! Buy it now! It's crazy!
GLENN: Please, get out of debt and look at the world with different eyes. Somebody's got to be a leader. Somebody's got to be a leader.