Glenn Beck: Where's the Wheat?




Related Video: Food vs Fuel

GLENN: Happy Earth Day, everybody, welcome to it.  Gas prices at a record high, $3.51 a gallon but if you are lucky enough to be a trucker, you are now paying $4.20 a gallon for diesel.  My question for truckers, and I know we got bunch of them listening.  Question to truckers, what is the price of diesel where you say, I'm out; I can't do it anymore?  What is the price of diesel?  We talked about this when diesel broke three -- I think it was $3.25 and truckers were starting to say, I can't do it, you know.  I put a second mortgage on my house; I don't know what to do.

So what is that magic number for truckers?  Because you've got to remember, gang, everything is moved in this country by truck.  Forget about the planes.  The airline industry having all kinds of problems because jets were not designed to be profitable at $100 a barrel.  Remember, $100 a barrel was insanity talk just six months ago.  We're now $100 -- come on, flip on me, $116.83 right now for oil.  $100.16.  I told you last night on television, we went back and we looked at the records.  It was about $60 a barrel when I said, what's the magic number that makes the economy fold?  They said $100 a barrel.  That's what you're paying right now.  Because remember, the $116 is an oil future.  That's -- you won't feel that at the gas pump for a couple of months yet.  So when it's $116 a barrel in oil futures, that's what you got looking forward.  What you're paying right now is the oil future that we saw about a month or two ago at about $100 a barrel.  So your $3.51 is in the past.  What's coming is $4, $4.50 and possibly $5 a gallon this summer.p>

Now, I had a guy who's the managing editor of Forbes magazine.  Stu, you wouldn't think the managing editor of Forbes magazine was a nut job, would you?

STU:  I do not think he's a nut job, I'm sure.  I don't know what you are talking about but I'm sure.

GLENN:  You didn't see it last night?

STU:  I didn't see the segment.

GLENN:  It was an amazing segment.  I asked him, because I can't now get anybody to go on record because at first it was $100 a barrel of oil would cause the economy to stop.  Then when we got close to $100, I said, oh, we're getting close to $100.  And then all the experts said, it will probably be $115, $120 a barrel.  Well, now that we're almost at $120 a barrel, what's the magic number?  Now the editor of Forbes magazine said the number two actually choke it off is $200 a barrel.  And he believes we could be at $200 a barrel quickly.

He also talked last night about how Saudi Arabia, they are not increasing oil production because they can't.  Now, this goes to a very controversial theory on oil production and that is peak oil.  We talked about it in our book and quite honestly it is the only chapter in "An Inconvenient Book" that is in the book that I don't know how I feel about.  I put it in there and we did our homework.  In fact, we did a lot of homework on that chapter because I'm not sure if I buy into peak oil.  People have been saying about peak oil, and it's the one thing that we have really not talked about on this show that's in the book because I'm not sold.

STU:  I think there's a healthy amount of skepticism in the chapter.

GLENN:  No, no, there is.  That's why -- I mean, you know, it was written by us and, you know, it's my book and I -- and Kevin was the one who presented me that chapter and said, I think we should do a chapter on this.  And I said, show me the evidence.  And so he did, and I still don't entirely buy it but I have to tell you, front page of the Wall Street Journal today talks about a new oil field that is now being -- getting ready to open up in Saudi Arabia.  It will add, I think it was -- I don't have it in here -- about a million barrels of oil a day.  In the grand scheme of things, Saudi Arabia does about 12 million barrels a day, 12.5 million barrels a day.  That's what they're at now.  They said at some point in the past they would never make it past 12.5 million barrels.  That was their top capacity.  It's now, the guy from Forbes last night was telling me that they are not only at their top capacity, it's now going to start to decrease because they're out of oil.  That's as good as it gets.  I was a little, still skeptical on that.  He said, peak oil people looked like they were right.

This morning on the front page of Wall Street Journal, it talks about what the Saudis have had to do to open up this oil field.  This is their last big oil field.  They have to do horizontal drilling, they have to pump water down into the ground to be able to get this oil out.  It's a different kind of oil.  It is very, very difficult and extraordinarily costly to get this oil out of the ground.  There's no way Saudi Arabia taps this oil field unless it's the oil field of last resort.  Now, granted it is a big oil field but this is it, experts are now saying, on the Saudi Arabian front.  And the proof to me at least for the first time is compelling because it's not, it's not speculative.  It's tied directly to finances.  There's no way Saudi Arabia takes that hit in their oil profits by opening up a less profitable field unless they have to.

Remember, they are not predicting that it's going to put more oil into the system.  It's only going to keep Saudi Arabia at 12.5 million barrels a day.  So you've got the gas prices happening, and gas prices are going to get worse.  Then on top of it, you now have -- and we talked about this yesterday -- in some areas of the country, and it's very limited, but I brought it up to you yesterday because we have for the first time, I told you on February 11th, for the first time the United States is importing wheat.  We've never had to do that before.  We're importing wheat and I told you on February 11th the oil -- I'm sorry, the grain futures are through the roof and it hasn't hit you yet, but it will.  Well, now it has started to hit, and it's hitting the rest of the world as well.

There are several things going on.  Quite frankly it's extraordinarily complex and I'm still trying to get my arms around it because the most difficult is the actual futures, the wagering.  I mean, we've got -- what we have, we've opened up for oil futures and commodities futures and the stock market.  This is gambling, and it is changing the price of things.  I'll get into that later on in the week.  But here's what I want you to understand.  Last night I'm reading a story about the shortage of butter -- you don't even know what my life is like -- the shortage of butter in Japan and there was a run on butter.  You can't get butter now in Japan.  It's off the shelves.  It's empty.

Well, what happened?  Japan didn't run out of butter.  There was a panic and there was a shortage, a 20% shortage of butter.  So when people started having a hard time finding it, they ran out and they snapped it all up.  Now butter prices in Japan are through the roof, and they can't buy butter.  This is a wealthy country.  They can't get the butter into the stores.p>

What was the butter caused by?  There's a shortage of cows in Japan.  Japan has imported everything that they need.  So there's a shortage of cows which means there's a shortage of milk.  Part of the shortage of cows and milk comes from the same shortage that we have, the price of grain.  So now you've got this problem and a panic in Japan.  Last night when I saw this about 10:00, and I wrote one of the researchers and I said, I'm sorry, I'm going to dump a bunch of work on what I -- this doesn't make sense to me, a shortage of butter.  This is not ethanol.  What is this?

Well, this morning when I got up at 5:00, I had a stack of stuff to read, and this is what I found and this is what I think you need to understand because it doesn't matter what the cause is at this point.  No one is telling you this yet, and you're going to get behind the eight ball if you don't know it now, and I'm going to give you not only the problem, I'm going to give you the solution.

This all started with a shortage of Japan, the butter in Japan, and here's where it's taken me.  The U.S. agriculture secretary Edward Schafer last week said the world has never been less secure about the near-term future of wheat.  That's key.  Not long term.  Near-term future of wheat.  He said international wheat stocks are now at a historic 30-year low and the U.S. wheat stocks are at an unprecedented 60-year low.  That's bad news.  But then he added there is a highly virulent after can stem rust that is spreading quickly among certain types of wheat field.  He said that 75% of U.S. wheat acres are planted to varieties that are highly susceptible to this disease.  This disease started, I think in Ghana.  Then it went all through Africa.  It's moved by the wind.  It's a spore and it moves by the wind.  Then it wiped out all the wheat fields and now it's jumped over to India.  This is why there's such a shortage of wheat overseas.  They have been coming over here now and buying our wheat.  We're having a shortage of wheat partly because we're not planting as much wheat as we used to.  We're planting more corn because we want ethanol.  So now this is spread across the globe.  It has not come here.  However -- and this comes from the research because I just, I said to one of the researchers, I'm not going to talk about mad cow, I'm not going to talk about another bird flu.  Tell me what the secretary of agriculture said about mad cow and the bird flu.  Nothing like this.  Going back and looking at the newspaper stories and the trips of when they were talking about mad cow and the first case of mad cow was here, the secretary of agriculture and the agriculture department said nothing like this.  They were saying, don't worry, it's not a problem, we got it under control.  This is not what they're saying about the wheat.

So bad news has become terrible news.  How fast do you think bread flour and other wheat products will literally disappear from our shelves if the virus hit?  He says 75% of our wheat is vulnerable to this.  If it hits 10% of our wheat fields, how fast can you not find flour?  Remember they have a 20% reduction in butter and now you can't find it anywhere.  Here's what I need you to understand.  What's happening in Japan right now is panic.  What's happening in Japan is panic.  What's happening in Haiti, what's happening in Egypt, what's happening in all the parts all around the Middle East is real.  There is a real shortage of food and it's happening in China, in India and everywhere else.  What happened in Japan is panic.  We will not run out of food.  We're the United States of America.  We have great farmers.  We have great farmland.  We will not run out of food.  But because of oil prices, because if there is this rust spore that comes over here, this is the downward pressure that I was talking about.  The price of food and the price of oil could be the downward pressure that we've been talking about.

ThThe only way -- you know what?  I feel this to the core of my being.  Our grandparents would slap us across the face right now.  For anybody who is saying, oh, please.  All I'm asking you to do is go out and buy some flour.  Don't panic.  Don't hoard it.  Don't do any of that.  Just go out and protect your family.  Go out and store some flour.  Store some rice.  Put it in your basement.  Use it through the summer or whatever.  Just hang onto it and then if things get bad, you use it.  So you batten down the hatches of your own finances.  So you don't have to worry so much about food prices because futures are telling us that the price is going to continue to increase.  The global food price has gone up 83% in the last three years alone.  Futures are telling us it's going up.  You will pay that price in gas soon.  You will pay that price in food soon.  The truckers will have to charge more for the delivery soon.  So you're going to feel this much more than you are now.  Spend your money wisely and store up on some food.  So then when everybody else is panicking, you will be calm enough with your family and your neighbors and say, relax.  Relax, we'll never run out of food and you won't be panicked because the worst thing that happens is when people panic, and there's got to be a core of people that don't panic if and when these things hit.  And when it comes to food, when it comes to gas prices, they are going to hit because the price is based on futures, and the futures are telling you it's gone up, and you ain't paying it yet.  You will.

Glenn gives the latest coronavirus numbers, updating YOU on everything needed to know as Americans and officials monitor China's new COVID-19 virus:

Daily Stats as of 5:30 AM CT (from John's Hopkins)

  • Total Confirmed Cases Worldwide: 799,995 (up from 735,135 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Deaths Worldwide: 38,735 (up from 34,807 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Recovered Worldwide: 169,995 (up from 155,950 Yesterday)
  • 5% of Active Cases are considered serious (requiring hospitalization) Steady from 5% Yesterday, but down from 19% high back in February
  • Note that 11% of US Confirmed Cases require Hospitalization, roughly on par with Italy at 12% requiring hospitalization
  • US has 164,359 Confirmed Cases and 3,173 Deaths, up from 142,746 cases and 2,489 deaths Yesterday
  • The United States of America now leads the world in total confirmed cases, with 63,000 more cases than Italy (although Italy leads the world in Deaths with 11,591 officially dead)
  • US has 3,173 Dead vs 5,507 Recovered and 3,512 in Critical Condition
  • The US Currently has 155,679 Active Cases of COVID-19, with less than 0.6% of the total US population tested
  • 15% of Americans who have been tested have been diagnosed with COVID-19
The Moment of Trump's Conversion: Dr Anthony Fauci Takes Full Responsibility https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/30/anthony-fauci-moment-donald-trump-realized-extend-social-distancing-mandate/
  • Dr Anthony Fauci, the Chief Medical Advisor to the coronavirus task force, explained on CNN that Trump listened and "got it right away" after being shown new data projecting as many as 3 Million deaths in the US if COVID-19 mitigation policies were lifted.
  • Fauci also said Trump's "first goal is to prevent suffering and death" and this was part of the reason why he knew the COVID-19 guidelines should be extended.
  • "You know, interestingly, we showed him the data, he looked at the data and he got it right away, it was a pretty clear picture," according to Fauci.
  • "Dr. Debbie Birx and I went in together and leaned over his desk and said 'Here is the data, take a look.'
  • Trump reportedly looked at them, understood the implications and he shook his head and said 'I guess we got to do it.'
  • "Medically, this is the right decision, and I stand behind it 100%," Fauci said.
  • "From a public health standpoint, we felt strongly that it would have been the wrong decision to pull back," Fauci said. "I mean, we are scientists, physicians, public health officials. We're not economists. We're sensitive to the idea that the economy could suffer, but weigh that against tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of American lives."
  • "...it was patently obvious looking at the data that at the end of the day if we try to push back prematurely, not only would we lose lives, but it probably would hurt the economy as well. So you would lose on double accounts. So, to us, there was no question what the right choice was."
Washington DC, Virginia, Maryland Join States Issuing House Arrest Orders https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-violators-of-marylands-stay-at-home-order-face-criminal-charges.html
  • Maryland and Virginia became the latest states on Monday to enact "stay-at-home" mandates amid the coronavirus outbreak, except for essential travel for work.
  • Virginia's order is in effect until June 10, making it one of the longest statewide mandates implemented so far.
  • Maryland's penalties for violating its order are among some of the strictest in the country, including a $1000 fine, and up to 30 days jail time for repeat offenders.
  • In total, more than 210 Million Americans now effectively live under some form of House Arrest or Shelter In Place type orders, with another, 50 Million facing travel or shopping/eating restrictions.
  • Only 6 states have not closed schools.