Glenn Beck: Jacko is at peace


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GLENN: I don't even know what to do with the Michael Jackson thing except to say this: I'm glad he's dead because I believe he's glad he's dead. You know, I don't think this guy was ever happy. Maybe he had moments of happiness. I don't know but I mean, anybody who does this to their face. You know, it's weird watching this last night as the you know, as everybody went to wall to wall Michael Jackson coverage. And I'm watching it and, you know, I remember seeing him in the Seventies as a kid and I was like, oh, man. He was so good. And then that moment at the Grammys or the Motown 25 or 35 or 50 or whatever the hell it was where he was doing the moonwalk, and I remember watching it. I remember seeing it for the very first time and he had the glove and the short pants and the white socks. They may have been even been silver or sequin that night and he did the moon and I remember watching it saying, oh, my gosh, look at that. And do you remember the phenomena it was the very next day. I remember the craze of the Thriller album and how this guy I mean, I went to a Michael Jackson Victory concert back in 1980, what, 4 maybe? Where he toured with his brother, brothers. And then I saw him alone later and I remember the Victory concert. I think the ticket was $20, and I was on the floor. And it was an outrage because remember everybody was outraged, the Victory concert, they were $20 seats? That's crazy! "It better be a good show for 20 bucks!" And then it all went downhill and then he started messing with his face. I mean, he was a good looking guy and then all of a sudden I mean, did you see the pictures of him in London where he made the announcement that he was going to go on tour again, and he was just, he looked like Frankenstein. He had just demolished his face. And how appropriate is it that yesterday as they're taking him out, as he's being loaded into the ambulance, there's a tour bus that has stopped in front and they were taking pictures and they were taking video of him being loaded in, dead. They worked on him for two hours yesterday. I think he's glad he's dead. He was clearly not a happy dude.

Stu, you can't relate to this at all, but all I could think of last night and my daughter was amazed at this. I said, "It's August 16th, 1977." And she said, "What?" And I said, "August 16th, 1977." Do you know what happened August 16th, 1977?

STU: No. I was like a year and a half old.

GLENN: I have no idea why I even know that date. Somebody, a friend of mine, Rob is in the studio. Do you remember, you're my age. If I said August 16, 1977, do you know what that is? Absolutely, Elvis. The day Elvis died. I don't even know why I remember August 16th, 1977. My daughter said, "That's not the date Elvis..." she said, "Dad, you barely know your own birthday." And I said, I don't know why I know. She got on, she Googled it and she's like, oh, my gosh. Now, I thought he was 50, but he was 42 when he died. So but this is exactly what it feels like. To anybody who lived through the Elvis thing, this is what it feels like, except the next day everybody on radio was playing Elvis songs. I remember I grew up in Seattle. So I listened to 11 KING growing up, that and KJR and KING in Seattle went into KING's salute to the King. It was nonstop wall to wall coverage and they had everybody who knew him, they had the old clips, they had everything that they had assembled and they put together, I think this 24 or 48 hour tribute to him. And it was phenomenal, but at this point people were gathering by the gates just like they were yesterday. There were candlelight vigils, there are people standing still at the hospital. I bet there are people still at the coroner's office today.

STU: There's self a big parallel there because I never thought of that, I mean, other than the nickname obviously. But you think about kind of like they're sort of past their prime, not really in the mainstream of, like, putting out hits still or anything like that but just so I mean, how many you said something this morning.

GLENN: 750 million albums.

STU: That's insane.

GLENN: 750 million albums. The guy couldn't go anywhere. My daughter said to me last night, she said, Dad, is there anybody, is there anybody like this? And I said she said, Madonna, anybody? I said, no, there's nobody. Elvis was the first huge star. And then after Elvis, I guess you could go to the Beatles, but the Beatles, it was a group. It wasn't an individual. So the next one I think that was like this was Michael Jackson, and there's nobody that even competes with this now. There's nobody. I mean, who's even there's nobody at this level. Nobody.

STU: Yeah. I mean, really

GLENN: Think of this you know, I said to my daughter yesterday, it was a weird generational thing last night for the two of us and I said, honey, imagine not being able to go anywhere on planet Earth, anywhere, and not have people surround your hotel. That's the way it was for Michael. You could go to China, he could go to Bahrain, he could go to England, India, anywhere.

STU: Yeah, there's no escape.

GLENN: There was no escape for him.

STU: And, you know, I'm conflicted over this because this is you do feel bad for him in a way, but I can't help

GLENN: No, I kind of got past the whole feeling bad for him with the child molestation stuff.

STU: Yeah. Like I you know, again he was not convicted of it. He certainly paid some people off for these incidents. It makes me believe again this is not a good standard for our legal system, but my personal opinion is he was doing that. But that's all I have. I mean, I don't have anything, I mean

GLENN: If he wasn't I said this at the time. If Michael Jackson was innocent, he is the most wrong man maybe in my life.

STU: Yeah.

GLENN: Because look at what I mean, that's the thing. I was in the elevator yesterday. I was on the air at 5:30 when they took him to the hospital and it was the first time that I think we broke the news, right? Was it the first time we broke the news at 5:30, or the first time I heard it.

STU: I think it did happen on your show.

GLENN: On our show, yeah. So they break the news that he's been taken to the hospital. Now, I'm just listening to Patty Ann do the news and I said I roll my eyes, I'm not on the air and I'm like, when is Michael Jackson not on the way to the hospital? He's always on the way to the hospital. But they showed this house that he was renting for $100,000 a month in California and I'm thinking to myself, he's broke! He's broke. And they show this enormous estate and we come out of the break and I said, show that estate again. We went to the live pictures from Los Angeles, the helicopter. And I said, look at this house. It's a mannequin and Michael Jackson. How big of a house does the guy need? A few minutes later I'm on the air and I'm doing the hot list and a few minutes later I hear in my ear, don't say anything but it looks like Michael Jackson is dead. And I'm doing the middle of, you know, the hot list.

STU: Don't say anything.

GLENN: Don't say anything and I'm thinking, maybe don't tell me. And so we get into the break and I said, what do you mean he's you think he's dead? And they said, well, we have TMZ which is very accurate. It's usually not wrong. But we can't go with just one source. We need more than one source. And so the whole rest of the show was back and forth, back and forth of, don't say anything but it really looks like he's dead. And Shep was right outside the studio. You know that blue wall behind me actually moves. It's a door. And Shep and Geraldo and the whole team was standing behind that door waiting to come on and they pulled me off the air four minutes early to go to the wall to wall coverage. But they were waiting, you know, to announce to the world that he had died. It was a very weird thing because I didn't feel bad when they said that he was dead. I was kind of my first thought was, I don't believe it. My second thought was, well, at least he's being left alone now. At least he's in peace, you know. At least he's back with God and God bless him. But then my immediately after was, he was a freak.

 

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Can you remember the economic crisis of 2008 and how you felt when the news broke that Lehman Brothers had collapsed? I have found an economic threat that everyone needs to be aware of, so you can prepare yourself in case we see another 2008 type collapse. I am going to present the evidence to you and I urge you to verify everything and to form your own opinion.

What is that threat?

It is a bank called Deutsche Bank. They are by far the most dominant bank in Germany which is the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2018 they had €2.08 Trillion worth of assets and the second-placed bank (DZ Bank) had €506 Billion worth of assets. To show you how dominant this bank is, they have more assets than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th sized banks combined.
When we review a business there are three key parts to analysis:

  • Market sentiment
  • Business numbers
  • Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Deutsche Bank has a long history of potential scandals including going all the way back to World War 2 and dealing in Nazi gold. Below are five recent stories which have increased the negative sentiment around Deutsche Bank.

  1. In 2007, they purchased a portfolio of loans worth $7.8 billion and purchased insurance from Warren Buffets Company. It was discovered they did not set aside enough capital to cover any potential losses. Over the course of the ten years, they lost $1.6 billion, and when they sold the loan they did not update their financial statements to include the big loss
  2. The Panama Papers are an ongoing investigation looking for many things including offshore tax havens. These investigations have resulted in several heads of state resigning including in Iceland and Pakistan. Last November, 170 police raided 6 different offices in Frankfurt looking for evidence of money laundering.
  3. Estonia is a small country in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 1.3 million people and a GDP of €26 billion. In January, it was discovered Deutsche Bank got involved with a Danish bank called Danke Bank and processed over $230 billion worth of cross country payments (including from Soviet Russia) through one bank in Estonia.
  4. There have been rumors of issues with Deutsche for a while now and one of the solutions put forth was a merger with a bank called CommerzBank. The leaders of both companies met and they even got support from politicians. In April, news broke that the merger talks had failed because over worries the risks and costs would be too great.
  5. Last week in France, Investment banking boss Garth Ritchie and others were arrested in France over illicit tax transactions.

Business Numbers

Deutsche Bank is already struggling as they are losing staff, losing market share, and bonuses are expected to be down at least 10% and further rounds of cost-cutting to come. Now imagine the impact if business costs start going up.

The banking industry works in a very simple way. They raise funds through large bonds at low-interest rates and then sell those funds to business and individuals thru products like loans and credit cards at a higher interest rate which results in a potential profit.

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank tried raising money through several bonds. They paid 180bp (basis points) on a two-year bond and 230bp on a seven-year bond. Let me put this in context for you. There is a small bank in Spain called Caixabank which paid 225bp on a five-year bond and one of the larger banks in Spain, BBVA paid 130bp on a five-year bond.

  • How and why is a small bank in Spain getting a better deal on bonds than a huge bank in Germany?
  • Why is a large bank in Spain getting a bond 100bp cheaper than a German bank?
  • What does the market know that we do not?

Stock Price

Deutsche is also missing revenue projections which further hurt the business ability to survive and prosper. As you can imagine all of this news has a deep and lasting impact on its stock price which is in deep trouble. Before I share the stock price, I need to put this into the context of the market and the industry compared to the big economic crash of 2008. Below you will see a chart of some banking stocks from around the world with their peak price prior to the 2008 crash, the low of the 2008 recession and the price today:

As you can see from the above chart the banks in America have recovered from the 2008 recession by anywhere up 375% and JP Morgan has not only recovered its price in full but is constantly setting new high's. Ireland went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the EU/IMF following the 2008 crash and even our national bank has more than doubled its price since 2008. The worst performing bank I could find was Societe Generale which has issues but is still hovering around its 2008 low price levels.

Now let's put that into the context of Deutsche Bank. Not only has the stock not rebounded but it is over 65% below its 2008 low at $6.75.

Technical Analysis

When you are dealing with the stock market, you also have people who study pricing through technical analysis. Experts look at things like FIB sequences, trend lines, and support levels. Support levels are a key metric for a stock failing because are looking to find where it will find support and potentially bounce higher.

We are very close to a key support level ($6.40) and if the price goes below this level, there is no saying exactly how low the price could go. At least one company expects Deutsche to fall below this support level, as several weeks ago UBS downgraded the stock to a sell order. This news was compounded last Friday when rating agency Fitch, downgraded their credit rating to BBB or two levels above JUNK status.

Other Information

I know you are likely reading this and thinking "this bank must have smart people in charge and surely they have a plan, right?" I am sure there is a plan and while they have kept their cards close to their chest, they have spoken in the past about the areas they foresee having growth for the company – they include business in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Do they strike you as countries which are stable and will offer steady and reliable growth? Do you have to think really hard to imagine how this could go potentially very wrong?

Questions

I believe there is at least a solid case Deutsche is in a LOT of trouble. So what are possible scenarios for the future? I will lay out the key questions below but I must stress that it's impossible to say for sure what exactly will happen. One of the key numbers to remember here is they have roughly €50 billion worth of derivatives.

  • How likely is it that the bank can turn things around and survive?
  • How likely is it the bank continues to run into trouble, its stock price fails and eventually fails?
  • If you think it is likely it will fail, the question becomes what will the fallout be? Who will be affected?
  • Will they be bailed out?
  • If so, by whom? The German government, ECB, IMF, the Federal Reserve?
  • What will the German government think? Some members recently spoke out saying they would block public money for the proposed merger? Will they block funds if it failed?
  • Will other banks be exposed and affected? Will they have to take losses?
  • Will those losses be spread around or will one or more bank be mainly affect?
  • Will this affect the sentiment of the banking sector and cause a panic?
  • If there are issues and it starts affecting the stock prices, what will be the impact on other industries?

Last Question

The last question revolves solely around the banks and the regulators? How secure are the other banks? We all hear about how banks are now put through "stress tests" but how much trust do you put in those results? How much trust do you have in the regulators?

I know this may make me sound like a conspiracy theorist to some but it's an honest question. The Fed is on public record saying they want to keep this economy strong as long as possible. If a bank did not perform strongly in a stress test or even barely failed one, do you think they would report it?

Can you imagine the pressure that body would come under to stay silent? Can you imagine the rhetoric they would face with questions like, "Are you really going to fail one bank? Do you know how many people will lose their jobs if you do that?" Am I saying this is happening? No, but can you really rule it out 100% as a possibility?

I urge you to ponder on these questions, do your own research and find YOUR answers.

Update: The most freaquently asked question I have received from this column / show is how much time do we have to prepare. This is an impossible question to answer, as it could fail tomorrow, next week or might be next year. However I want to provide you a potential date for your diary – July 24th. That is when Deutsche will release their next earnings report and if it comes in below expectations, it could cause a further drop in price casting more doubt over the future viability of the bank.

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Survey: Where do you stand on these conspiracy theories?

Thought Catalog / Unsplash

Have you seen this survey on the most-believed conspiracy theories in America?

It's no surprise the survey has been getting so much attention. The results are actually a pretty disturbing.

Infographic: Belief in Conspiracy Theories in the United States | Statista

I decided to put together a quick survey of my own, with slightly different wording.

Up-vote the ones you agree with and down-vote the ones you disagree with.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK alone. However, I would not be surprised to find out the government sealed evidence that others were involved.

If by "deep state" you mean long-time Washington power brokers who are used to calling the shots and now feel threatened by Donald Trump not listening to their advice or council — yes, I do believe that many people like that are working against him and his administration.

Whether alien bodies are in Area 51 or not, I do believe the government knows more about UFOs than they have told us.

I do not believe the U.S. government was involved in 9/11, but as we know, NSA advisor Sandy Berger was caught destroying documents from the national archives related to both Bush and Clinton. All U.S. administrations have been to close to the Saudis, and the Saudis were involved in 9/11 at some level.

I believe the climate is always changing — it's natural. I would be willing to accept that man MAY play a role in this. But I do not believe in the solutions currently being discussed, nor do I believe the intention of most political activists are pure.

Any talk of the Illuminati provides the true dangers to man's freedom — like very powerful NGOS and men like George Soros — a perfect cover.

The U.S. government has done some horrible experiments on people and land — I also suspect they will do more things in the future. But I do not believe in the systematic spraying of chemicals using chemtrails.

The moon landing was real, but I see a time coming when people will not be able to trust their eyes due to deep fakes.

What do you think?

Let me know in the comments section below.