"This is the most bizarre primary I have ever seen in my lifetime," Glenn says. With only a year left before the 2024 election, Glenn and Stu review the very unusual state of the race: The leading Republican candidate, former president Donald Trump, is facing multiple lawsuits that could land him in prison, the leading Democratic candidate, President Biden, is tanking in the polls, and we could see a rematch between two presidents. So, can Trump win from jail? Will the Democrats kick Biden out of the race? Glenn gives his thoughts ...
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: So we've been talking about the New York Times polls, that has come out. And give me a snapshot from that, just to recap, Stu.
STU: Basically, it was a poll of swing states.
Which, in my view, it's a better way of doing these polls, than like a national number.
Because in reality, we all know that, you know, Donald Trump is going to win Idaho. And the fact that they can pull a few votes out of that, to make it a national number isn't all that important, right?
GLENN: I am worried about Texas, quite honestly.
Lots of new people in Texas. If they can -- I mean, if there's any kind of fraud in this state. And, by the way, look, they're challenging Ted Cruz.
STU: Well, they challenged Ted Cruz before, and they won. They have Beto O'Rourke. That threw more money out of it, and he still lost.
And, again, when it comes to the fraud thing, that's almost a separate topic. Right?
I'm looking at -- you can only look at this, at what is actually going to happen. If they do some trickery, what will they do?
There's no way you can predict that. When it comes to these six states, excuse me.
You have a situation, where Joe Biden is losing five of them.
And by some of them, very large margins. Nevada by ten to Donald Trump. Nevada, of these swing states, is probably one of the more difficult ones for Republicans to win.
One of the more blue states out of these.
Georgia. You have Trump by six. Arizona, Trump by five. Michigan, Trump by five.
Pennsylvania, Trump by four. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania by four points, he will win the election.
And then finally Wisconsin. Which is actually polled. It's been one of those states that has in polling, off more than almost every other state.
Almost always, Wisconsin seems to look more positive for Democrats. Than it winds up being in the actual election. That's important to remember. But Wisconsin here, it's Biden plus two.
Now, the other candidates, they did DeSantis and Haley in these polls as well. Both DeSantis and Haley win Wisconsin comfortably actually. And neither DeSantis nor Haley lose any state against Joe Biden.
Any of these six. That's not been something that's been talked about as much. There are two states, in which DeSantis is even with Joe Biden. But both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis either win or are tied in these states.
This is the most bizarre, just the most bizarre primary I've ever seen in my lifetime.
STU: So weird.
GLENN: I mean, you've got a guy who they're doing everything they can, to put him in jail.
He may be in jail by the time the -- the election comes around.
And I don't know honestly know if that will help or hurt him. I really don't know.
STU: Think about --
GLENN: It's crazy. Just that.
STU: Think about all the things that are strange.
You have a guy who may go to prison. It may help him. It may hurt him.
The leading candidate is not participating in the debates. That's a weird thing, right?
The leading candidate is a former president of the United States.
That's really weird, right?
When it's not consecutive terms. It's happened.
But it's pretty odd.
On the democratic, you have a guy that is overwhelmingly disliked by his own voters. In this poll. More than half of Biden's voters say he's too old to be president.
GLENN: Listen to this.
His approval on the economy, in the battleground states. The economy, his approval is 39 percent.
STU: That's catastrophic.
GLENN: With 57 percent disapproving. CBS, and I think it was CNN, just took a poll, about, where we are in the wrong direction? Right direction?
Seventy-four. In one poll. And 75 percent in another poll, say we're on the wrong track.
GLENN: He has 9 percent strong approval, on the economy.
And 48 percent registering strong disapproval. It's worse than a five-to-one ratio of strong, you know, anti on the economy.
Five to one.
Also, separate polling for Gallup going back seven decades. Republicans have never been before enjoyed a larger edge on the primary issue of the day, the economy.
Seven decades. Seventy years. They've not seen polling like this.
STU: Through Reagan.
STU: Think about that.
GLENN: Yeah. 40 percent of people that are polled right now, say they're afraid their income is not going to be able to cover the House and the food, because of inflation. And they know who is responsible.
They are blaming it on Bidenomics.
Real -- real incomes -- declining real incomes make the stables of life, difficult to finance. And housing affordability has never been worse.
This is according to Goldman Sachs. The first time in history, the average apartment rent is $2,000 a month.
The average apartment. Up from 1600 when Biden took office.
Battleground state voters overwhelmingly blamed poor policies for this financial squeeze.
71 percent now say it's government policy that has not been contributed to this rise in rent, with 50 percent blaming the government a great deal.
That's -- that's pretty significant.
STU: Yeah. Yeah. I would say it is.
And, you know, when you look at the economy. There are some interesting breakdowns, when you look at the economy. They're all bad for Biden. There's nothing there.
Even people who didn't like Trump, are saying, well, look, at least the economy was good when he was president. If you go back, Glenn, 30 or 40 years, the only two times that people were really optimistic on the economy overall, were like 1998 to 2000. The end of that -- the Clinton era. When the internet was kicking it in. Right before the recession, that started, by the way, when Clinton was president. But people didn't know that during the election. And then secondarily was the period '17 to 2019. Sorry 2018 to March 2020. The cutoff was March 2020.
GLENN: We talked about it. Everything was going so well, that only some catastrophic event at the end of his term. And lo and behold, a catastrophic event.
STU: We did see one. Listen to this, Glenn. This is an interesting breakdown from the Times on the economy. A pound of bacon costs an average of $7.08 in the US. 21 percent than when Biden took office.
GLENN: 21 percent.
STU: The price of coffee beans has risen 33 percent.
A gallon of gas is 72 percent more expensive. And because inflation affects everyone, it can damage the public more than anything else.
In parentheses, yes, the inflation has fallen sharply this year.
But most prices have not fallen.
Only their rate of increase has. This is something we made a point on this a hundred times. When you can see they're trying to baby -- spoon-feed this to their actual Democrat audience here. And saying, hey. The reason why this stuff isn't working here.
Is the rate might be coming down a little bit. But the prices are still increasing. It's a rate of rate of increase.
But listen to the -- I thought this was fascinating. A president can't do much to bring down prices in the short-term.
Yet, Biden has taken steps to reduce energy prices. Again, this is a Democrat talking to other Democrats.
Think of it from that perspective.
GLENN: We're in Alice in Wonderland.
STU: He approved an enormous new oil project on federal land in Alaska, while enacting billions of dollars of subsidies for clean energy.
Again, we know that doesn't bring down. But the Alaska thing is kind of interesting.
He's been strangely unwilling to brag about the Alaska Project. As Matthew Eglesias noted in a recent Substack newsletter: Biden seems more focused on avoiding criticism from climate activists, than on winning over swing voters who can help reelect arguably the most climate friendly president ever.
Again, Democrats speaking to Democrats.
Ignore some of the context here.
GLENN: My eyes are bleeding. I feel like the guy in Casino Royale, where blood is just trickling out the side of my eye, you know.
STU: You think about it from just a political standpoint.
You have this one thing in Alaska. You would think in this moment, you are touting that to swing states. Right?
You're going crazy. Making it a much bigger deal than it actually is.
There's a similar dynamic on immigration. Undocumented migration to the US has surged after Biden took office, partly in response to his welcoming campaign rhetoric. That's one way to put it.
GLENN: Listen to that. That's Democrats to Democrats. They don't say that mainstream. What rhetoric?
No. We were not inviting -- they sent a strong message. Yeah. Uh-huh.
STU: Many Americans are unhappy about the surge. Although, Biden has since taken steps to reduce the surge. Again, not how I would describe it. However, although Biden has since taken steps to reduce the surge. He rarely emphasizes these popular steps. These are steps that poll well with the American people. He seems more focused on progressive activists than swing voters. So what does that mean, Glenn?
STU: Why wouldn't he tout -- politically speaking, go to the middle, say, I swear I'm doing stuff. I know you don't see it, but I swear I'm doing it.
Instead, he's worried about criticism from crazy left-wing activists.
GLENN: Because crazy left-wing activists put him into office.
It was the unions. And the crazy left-wing advocates. That are the ones who are also backing him up with muscle.
That's why he's now saying, you know, Israel. You should be nicer to Hamas.
We -- maybe you should slow down. Because he's lost. Or in danger of losing the people, that are behind.
Did you notice the signs?
Did anybody look at the signs that were on the streets of Washington, DC, or New York or every place else this weekend?
STU: You're not talking about the ones where they're painting the Stars of David on the street?
GLENN: No. No. No. Where they killed that woman?
No. I'm talking about the printed signs about a free Palestine. The bottom of it, go look at the pictures.
Provided by the socialist worker's party.
This is a socialist-run thing.
So you've got all of that, wrapped up into the Palestinian thing.
He cannot afford to lose his muscle.
He can't afford to lose those advocates. Because those are the strongest. What's going to happen. Is you will have those people, or you're going to have the people that are like, you know what. I'm not even going to vote.
Because that's the way, I think that's the way, your supporters are getting on Biden.
If they don't flip. They're just not motivated.
Because he's not doing anything good. For them.
STU: How much of this is Biden guarding his flank for a challenger, like a Gavin Newsom. Like someone else who will come out of the woodworker and say, you know what.
GLENN: Oh, I think a great deal of it. A great deal.
Listen to this from Axlerod.
STU: David Axelrod. The former -- Obama administration official.
I don't remember his exact role.
GLENN: It's very lately to change horses. And a lot will happen in the next year. That no one can predict. And Biden's team says his resolve is firm to run. I'm justly proud of his accomplishments.
However, his poll numbers send tremors of doubt. Not bedwetting. Legitimate doubt.
Trump is a dangerous, unhinged demagogue, whose brazen disdain for the rules, norms, laws, and institution, or democracy. Should be disqualifying.
But the steaks of miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore. Only Joe Biden can make this decision.
If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the democratic party.
What he needs to decide, is whether that is wise. Whether it is in his best interest or the country's.
GLENN: He's got to have somebody behind him.
STU: He's a power -- he's a big, you know, group of connections inside the Democratic Party.
This isn't just some guy saying this. This is a big deal.
GLENN: Oh, no.
This is Axlerod. This is Axlerod.