RADIODecember 27, 2023

How a new Biden rule will CRUSH small businesses

Former investment banker Carol Roth recently warned in a Blaze Media op-ed that "32 million small businesses are about to get blindsided." She joins Glenn to break down a new rule that goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2024. On paper, the Corporate Transparency Act is marketed as a way to prevent against money laundering. But in reality, the act — which suspiciously only targets the smallest of small businesses — is full of traps that could land entrepreneurs in jail. Carol explains this 2-pronged attack that not only makes operating a small business a legal nightmare, but also sets up "a massive data collection program." Carol also clears up the confusion about what the Federal Reserve's 2024 interest rate predictions would mean for average Americans.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So I was just trying to explain to Stu at the top of the hour we were talking about what you were talking about. And I want to start with what the fed did.

Because right now, if you look at the poll numbers, that are coming out, from all of the swing states, it's pretty dark news, for Joe Biden.

STU: Yeah. New Bloomberg poll that is out today of the swing states. Real quick, we'll go through them.

Wisconsin, Trump 45, Biden 41. Georgia, Trump 49, Biden 43.

Michigan, Trump 46, Biden 42.

Pennsylvania, Trump 46, Biden 44.

Nevada, Trump 47, Biden 44.

North Carolina, Trump 49. Biden 40.

And Arizona, Trump 46, Biden 42.

GLENN: That's not good.

STU: If you're Joe Biden.

GLENN: If you're Joe Biden.

And that comes from Bidenomics.

People are just not believing it.

However, what the fed did, yesterday, by saying, they're going to lower the interest rate three times next year.

Doesn't that mean more free money is coming out. And it will -- it will juice things to make people feel better for the short-term.

CAROL: Okay. So a couple of things. First, what happened yesterday, was they decided they would hold rates steady.

They did something called the dot plot, which is an expectation of the members, of where they think interest rates will be. And from that projection.

It was extrapolated, that that there could be three interest rate cuts next year.

GLENN: Okay.

CAROL: Now, that being said, what the members project is always wrong.

So some of -- I know this is shocking news you to.

GLENN: Yeah. Right.

Wow. What a surprise.

CAROL: Now, they're economists. They couldn't project their way out of a paper bag if they tried. So this is an expectation, that if everything were to stay on the trajectory that they think with the same variables today, that they would be in a position, to normalize rates.

And what that is telling you. Is that they think by that point in time, the monetary policy, will have worked its way through the system. That will inflation coming close to their target. Probably not their target. And that they will try to normalize interest rates.

It doesn't mean that -- this particular statement, is it not mean that they're going to print additional money.

It's just a shift in the interest rate.

That being said, there are other factors, that could lead to all of that happening. But this is just, you know, hey.

We have no idea what's going on, but we want you to put something out there. By the way, as you led in with Stu's poll numbers, that could perhaps create some more optimism for people.

To say, oh, well, things are getting better. Maybe you should vote for Joe Biden.

GLENN: Sure. Correct. Correct.

And that's -- you know, this is the one thing that the fed can do. They can raise the interest rates.

They can tighten money. And they can make a politician's life and reelection hell or happy.

It is really -- this is why you don't ever tie these two things together with politics. But they have. They have. So we'll see what happens.

CAROL: They have.

But it's wild. If you think about what's happened, we've been in this massive tightening cycle. And you have the indices. One of them, hitting an all-time high. And two of them getting close back to all-time highs.

That's sort of the opposite, that what should be happening with policies. You have this weird thing of what's going on, where you have this magnificent seven tech stocks, that are at this point, more than a quarter of the S&P 500 is the largest chunk that seven stocks have ever accounted for, in terms of the stock market. In terms of S&P 500 before. And so they are driving the narrative.

You know, if you pulled that out, and you normalize things. Things look very, very different. So you're getting this kind of disparate story. Something that would probably be very different. And look a lot more like last year, if people weren't so all in on AI and all of these promises.

GLENN: Yeah. And so here's the -- by the way, I don't know if you've seen the AI newscast. Have you seen this yet?

Came out yesterday.

Do we even have that? Do we have that polled yet?

No. I just we'll have to do that tomorrow. There's a new AI newscast. All written by AI.

And delivered by AI people that look absolutely real.

And they're like, you know, don't worry about it. There's not going to be any bias. Because we're all computer generated.

Like, oh, that doesn't fill me with confidence.

Okay?

That doesn't make me feel good. But I digress. Let me talk you to about the other thing.

You wrote a great op-ed yesterday, for -- as a warning to small businesses. This makes no sense to me, if -- if you're trying to do what the government says they're trying to do.

What this looks like, is let's attack the smallest business owners, that we have in our economy. And get them to close their doors.

That's what it feels like to me. Explain what's happening.

CAROL: Yeah. It's part that. And it's part a massive data collection program, that nobody knows about. It's a rule, that goes into effect. January 1st. 2024. That no one in the small business community had heard about.

Was put on my radar by a couple of my great followers over the past couple of weeks.

I had not heard about it.

I was a small business expert, advocate, and someone who owns a small business. Nobody told me about this.

So this is the corporate transparency rule, and what they're trying to gather is beneficial owner information for businesses. And it's estimated that this could impact up to 32 million small businesses.

Including sole proprietors, that have entities. So this is focused on entities.

So if you're a single member LLC or if your business has an S Corp. Even if you don't have employees, you're impacted. And basically, what they're saying, is that you have to register, with a group that's out of the Treasury called FinCEN, which is the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network because they want to prevent money laundering, much in the way that hiring 87,000 IRS deps was meant to go after 800 billionaires. Right? That's exactly what they're --

GLENN: Right. Hang on.

But FinCEN is the group that tagged Hunter Biden that everybody ignored. Right?

CAROL: Correct. That's the irony of the timing here. Is that you have all these flags. Suspicious activity reports and the like for Hunter Biden. And the Biden family.

That were made. And went completely ignored.

But now you want to go after the small business.

And why I say going after the small business. There are all kinds of groups that are exempt.

If you are -- a lot of the different financial services are exempt. I'm guessing because they already have to register with FinCEN.

But if you are a large business and you have at least 20 employees and $5 million in revenue, you don't have to register for this time.

GLENN: Hang on just a second.

So they're going after money launderers.
What kind of crappy money launderer are you, that you're not at least making 5 million?

Hunter Biden made $5 million in one deal. What are you doing it for? You're doing it for snacks? I mean, that's ridiculous.

CAROL: You're money laundering for Doritos or something like that, just for fun and giggles.

And that's what the ridiculousness is. The burden. The invasion of privacy. The collection of small business information, which puts it at risk. Obviously, any time, not only is it a personal invasion of privacy, but it's the potential for cyber criminals to go after it.

GLENN: So what is it that they're collecting on you?

CAROL: So it's called BOI. Beneficial Ownership Information.

And so it's what you might think. It's your name, it's your address, it's all the names you do business under. It's your government ID.

So, again, you don't need ID to vote. But to be a small business, apparently you need one. So something like a driver's license or a passport. And they're going to associate all of that in this national database, so that they can track who is doing business as a small business entity.

And, again, with so many up to 32 million small businesses in this country, the benefit of potentially tracking down a few money launders, which we know, we have one, that they've done absolutely nothing about. Versus the burden this creates, in terms of privacy. There's a fee, Glenn. Surprise, surprise, $85.

And that is, if you don't need to hire someone else to make sure you do this the right way.

GLENN: And if you don't do it exactly right, a massive fine is coming your way, right?

CAROL: So not only fine, but you could also go to jail. There's a jail penalty, associated with not participating in this.

You have to not only do it the one time, which they say the initial burden is three hours. That's assuming that you know how to do this the right way.

Think about three hours, and filling out a form for a small business. That sounds pretty invasive, right?

GLENN: I don't have three hours a day. I don't have three hours to do stuff. You know.

CAROL: It comes them away from revenue-generating productive activity on some nonsense here. And then, by the way, any time something changes, it is up to you, to make sure that you keep them informed.

GLENN: Unbelievable.

CAROL: And, again, if you don't do it, in the certain period of time. Well, oh, I forgot. I moved.

Okay. Well, now FinCEN will come out.

GLENN: This is -- this is the way Germany did it.

All dictators do it.

Every time, they go so -- make so many laws, that are on your back. And on your shoulder.

That you -- you could guarantee you're breaking some law, that you may not even know about.

But they've made it so everybody is a law breaker at some level or another.

So you better not step out of line.

You better shut your mouth right now.

Because you think you can't go to jail?

Oh, really?

Did you move last year? Did you let FinCEN know about it?

CAROL: You must be a money launder. That $10,000 that you collected as a hobby mom and decided to put in an LLC structure.

GLENN: Let me give you one more thing on this. This is being blamed.

This isn't Joe Biden. This is not Joe Biden.

And it's not. It happened, I believe in January 2020. So Donald Trump was still in office.

It went -- it went to his desk. Both houses voted for it.

It went to his desk. He vetoed it and said it was insanity.

He vetoed it.

It went back. Both houses passed his veto.

And then it was -- it was lost.

So this isn't Donald Trump's fault. This isn't Joe Biden's fault. This is the Congress and the Senate.

I don't know what they're getting out of this. Except more information on you.

But it is wrong.

CAROL: It is. And I think it's something we have to really try hard to repeal. If you're an existing business, you have all year. You have, you know, one full year, in order to comply. If you're a new business. You start a new business, it's 30 days. Old businesses. Existing businesses. Entities. Have the whole year.

GLENN: Where do you even go?

CAROL: Well, I put a statement in, and the last house and small business committee, on the record, that said, this needs to be a top priority.

So the house of small business committee. This is on their radar.

And we need to be picking up our phone. And calling up our representatives. And particularly if you own a small business. And say, this needs to stop.

There is absolutely no benefit to this.

And all it does, it amasses data collection against small businesses. That will make it harder for people to start. And operate. And create more penalties. And shift the landscape, again, in favor of big businesses.

So I am impersonally not going to look at clients until at least the back half of next year, and try to do everything possible, to get this repealed.

To our veterans...

Americans are bad at saying "thank you." So, this Veterans Day, Glenn wanted to take the time to make it clear: "Your country remembers you. Your country needs you. And your country is grateful in a way that language will never quite capture. Thank you."

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Hello, America. It's Veterans Day, and I want to start there in 60 seconds. First, debt is like gravity. It pulls. It pulls back on you constantly, until one day you realize, you're not moving forward anymore. And the worst part of it, most of it is just accepted. We call it normal. We make the minimum payments. We don't -- the rates come down. And we keep spinning that same old wheel, wondering why we're tired all the time. But it doesn't have to be that way.

American Financing is helping people all over the country restructure their mortgage. You know, pay off high-interest debt. And regain real financial freedom.

They're family-owned. They work for you. Not the banks. Their mortgage consultants don't earn commissions. They take the time to listen and build a plan that actually fits your life.

And it will help you keep more of what you earned.

Because every dollar you save. Is a piece of your life you're getting back. It's American Financing.

They're helping you keep more of it. And in a world where everything is getting more and more expensive, that kind of control isn't just smart, it's a little bit liberating and empowering.

The start of something much, much better. Please, call American Financing at 800-906-2440. 800-906-2440. Or you can go to AmericanFinancing.net. That's AmericanFinancing.net.
(music)

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GLENN: It's Veteran's Day, and I want to speak to one person, right now.

You!

The one who raised a hand and swore an oath that didn't end when your enlistment did. It was an oath that was older than your commanding officer. Older than the branch you served in. Older than even the nation itself. Because what you swore to defend was not a government. Unlike every other oath that every military man takes all over the world, you swore an oath to an idea.

And today, in a country that sometimes feels dizzy from spinning arguments, I think we should pause and anchor ourselves again to you.

To the men and women who tethered this republic to reality, when the storms came.

We have an amazing story.

If you really know the story of Lexington when the farmers left their plows and damp fields. Because liberty whispered their names.

They met at their church. Their preacher met them out.

They didn't have a chance of them winning.

I think of the -- the Marines who fought through the gas and the mud until the Germans called them devil dogs.

The beaches of Normandy, where boys who had never even see France saw eternity in a single morning on a single beach!

And the men who fought in Korea. And Vietnam. Kuwait. Fallujah. The Skies over Baghdad.

Every generation has a chapter that is written in blood and grit, and it was written by people who never asked for a statue. All they wanted was a chance to come home! And some didn't. And their stories end on foreign soil or carved into white markers in rows so straight, it almost breaks you.

But their gift to us, never ends.

At least, as long as we remember them and you.

Because every -- every free breath we take is borrowed from them! And you. If you're a veteran listening right now, maybe you came home to a grateful nation. Maybe you quietly slipped into civilian life, wondering if anybody saw the weight that you were carrying.

No matter your circumstance, know this: You need to know this.

Millions see you! Millions are grateful. You changed the destiny of my children. And they will never know your name.

You changed my life, in ways you will never understand.

I wouldn't be able to be here, and say these things if it weren't for you!

We take -- we take all of this so lightly. It was you that stood between tyranny and who those couldn't defend themselves.

Have you kept the promise. Most citizens like me. We never make. We never have to make.

Because always did. And you continue to do so.

It's amazing to me, when you are off into war, most times, not every time, we think about you all the time.

We want to give you the very best when you're at war. And then you come home, and then, eh, and you have the worst of our health care. I mean, at least mine was go to Canada to get the health care. I don't know if it's any better up there!

We're not really good at saying thank you. Let me just take just a second, to say it plainly and clearly to you. Thank you. Thank you for walking into the unknown when the rest of us stayed home. I don't know what your motivation was, when you joined. But thank you for believing that liberty was worth more than comfort.

Thank you for the nights you didn't sleep. Thank you for the holidays you missed. Thank you for the kids you didn't see born because you were someplace else.

Thank you for the friends you still mourn. That's why you did it.

Because you're a brotherhood.

Thank you and all your brothers.

Thank you for every scar. The ones we can see, and the ones we will never see.

Thank you -- thank all the families. Thank you for what you've done. The quiet platoon behind every soldier and sailor and airman and Marine and Coast Guardsman, because you served too.

Freedom has always been a family burden. And look at what those families are like. They're usually remarkable!

We live in a world right now that feels -- feels really loud and divided. And suspicious.

And it is!

But, I mean, wanted to take a minute on this day, and let everything just be quiet.

Gratitude has a way of silencing nonsense.

And I want you to know, how grateful I am.

So before we got back into the headlines again, before the noise rises back up, let me end this with the only words that really matter, to every veteran of the United States armed forces. Your country remembers you. Your country needs you. And your country is grateful in a way, language will never quite capture.

Thank you!

The government just CONFIRMED they’ve been ROBBING you for 15 years

Buried in a recent New York Times op-ed about the end of the government shutdown is the quietest confession you’ll ever hear from the elites: "Why can’t Republicans just accept reality? These [Obamacare] healthcare subsidies are working." But who are they working for? Healthcare prices are still incredibly high! Glenn reminds us what "subsidies" really are: money "borrowed" from the future to hide the failures of the present, and lining the insurance companies' pockets.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So is the shutdown over? I mean, it has to go to the House, and now the House is saying that they're not going to pass it.

STU: Well, the House should be -- I don't think there's any real belief that they won't pass it. The hurdle was the Senate. And they got through the Senate. Now we get to watch the ongoing democratic Civil War, about whether or not Chuck Schumer will be removed or not.

GLENN: It's crazy. It is crazy.

So, you know, let me go through something that came in from the New York Times. What were the Democrats thinking?

It starts out, in this op-ed, back in September, when I was reporting an article, Democrats should shut down the government, I kept hearing the same warning from veterans of past shutdown fights.

President controls the bully pulpit, and parts of the government will stay open, and he decides what parts close.

It's very, very hard for the opposition party to win a shutdown. Blah, blah.

Now they have brokered a deal over the weekend, as the Senate Democrats broke ranks and negotiated a deal to end the shutdown, and return for, if we're being honest, very little according to the New York Times.

The guts of the deal are this. Food assistance, both SNAP and WIC will get a bit more funding. There will be a few more modest concessions on spending levels elsewhere in the government.

Laid off federal workers will be rehired, and furloughed federal workers will be given back pay.

Most of the government is funded, only until the end of January. Get ready, we'll be doing this again.

The deal does nothing to extend the aspiring affordable care tax credits, which Democrats essentially have shut down the government for, in the first place. First of all, it's not the affordable care tax credit.

That's -- that's not why you shut it down.
There are tax credits, yes.

But this is different. These were the government subsidies. Leave it to the New York Times. Let me lay this really clear. Democrats demanded a continuation of the enhanced subsidies for the American care act. Okay?

They were temporarily expanded during the pandemic. These were not the tax credits. These were extra subsidies stuffed into the 2021 American rescue plan, as an emergency measure. Remember, the one, we had to pass this in the middle of the night. And nobody could read it. Well, that's what it was in it. And these subsidies lowered the premiums more than usual. Expanded the eligibility far above the original ACA income caps. And was always designed to be temporary just for COVID.

So if you were in COVID, and I lost your job, and you didn't have health care or whatever, you could get on the ACA.

Even though, you're -- you're -- your salary was higher than it would be accepted.

Normally. You could get on it.

But once -- once they created this, Washington does what Washington always does, and they won't let it go.

Okay.

It's not the tax credit. To understand why this shutdown will end with such a whimper, you need to understand the strange role the ACA subsidies played in it. Democrats said the shutdown was about subsidies. But for most of them, it wasn't. This is the New York Times saying this.

It was about Trump's authoritarianism. It was about showing their base and themselves, that they could fight back. It was about treating an abnormal political moment, abnormally.

The ACA subsidies emerged as the shutdown demand because they could keep the caucus sufficiently united. They put Democrats on the right side of public opinion, even though self-identified MAGA voters wanted the subsidies extended.

And they held the quivering Senate coalition together. You shut the government down, with the Democratic caucus that you have, not with the Democratic caucus that you want.

But the shutdown was built on a cracked foundation. There were Senate Democrats who didn't want a shutdown at all. There were Senate Democrats who did want a shutdown. But thought it was strange to make their demands so narrow. Was winning on health care premiums really winning the right fight?

Shouldn't Democrats really vote to fund the government, turning towards authoritarianism, as long as health insurance subsidies are preserved? And what if winning the health care fight was actually a political gift to Trump. Now, this is the New York Times.

Absent a fix, the average health insurance premium for 20 million Americans were more than double. The premium shock will hit red states really hard.

Trump's long time pollster had released a survey of competitive house districts. Showing that letting the tax credits expire. Might be lethal to Republican effort to see hold the House. Why were the Democrats fighting so hard to neutralize their best issue in 2026. The political logic of this shutdown fight was inverted. If Democrats got tax credits extended, if they won. They would be solving a huge electoral problem for the Republicans. If Republicans successfully allowed the tax credits to expire if they won, which would be handing the Democrats a cudgel which would beat them in the next elections. This is unbelievable!

I mean, they're saying -- they're saying it out loud. You know what I mean?

They go on in this, to say, you know. Quote, why can't Republicans just accept reality. These health care subsidies are working.

No. They're not. No, they're not.

They are propping. Okay?

They're scaffolding. Holding up a structure that was never sound.

They were a COVID-era brace jammed under a tottering wall. And now, the same architects who swore the House -- the House was safe. They're telling you the splintered wood was actually part of the design. What?

This is the power the mainstream media has. The press still has over mainstream Americans. It's kind of like a hypnotic choke hold.

You say the word subsidy enough times with the right sad piano music under it, and suddenly, we forget what subsidies are. Here's what subsidies are, gang!

Money borrowed from the Chinese. But we're not on the hook for it. We're not on the hook for it.

Money borrowed from the Chinese, from the future, to hide the failures of the present on decisions that were made in the past. Okay?

And now we're told, if we don't just keep borrowing forever, America will collapse. No. What collapses is this crazy illusion. Let's be clear about something the op-ed never will admit. The Affordable Care Act didn't fail because of Republicans. It failed because math is a stubborn thing because insurance is not health care.

Because a program bent around bureaucrats and middlemen will always cost more and deliver less!
We have been subsidizing the symptoms. We never treated the disease here. And now, when a shutdown touches those subsidies, suddenly we're told the sky is cracking. TikTok is flooded with panic videos scripted by algorithms that can't really be trusted.

The influencers don't even know what they're defending. They just know fear pays better than the truth. And here the truth. The system was failing long before Trump. Long before Biden. Long before COVID. And maybe, just maybe, this moment is not a crisis, but an opening.

You know, I've said this for months now.

The greatest political opportunity of our lifetime now, is health care reform! Real, actual reform.

Not another Washington quick fix. Not more subsidiary easy or anything else. Not a Band-Aid over a bullet wound. But the Republicans won't do anything about it. I believe, and I say this without hesitation, I think. That Trump and RFK Jr. together may be the only combination force in American politics with the will to take a flamethrower to the bureaucracy, that is choking doctors and nurses. The pharmaceutical lobby, the insurance labyrinth, the 50 states wrapped in 50 different versions of red tape. All of it has to be confronted. And here's why Trump can't afford to miss this: If he solves even a quarter of this problem, if he can find the way to lower costs, if he increases access. If he frees the market to actually work across state lines, he'll not only win in 2026.

He'll be launching a momentum, that will carry Vance into the presidency in 2028.

This is the key here!

But he has to remember something Washington has long forgotten. The people he's negotiating with, they don't want a deal. They don't fear collapse.

They come it. They have been playing a slow motion Colour Revolution. One that the company has to be impoverished. Has to be frightened. And has to be divided to accept the new power structures.

Colour Revolutions only work if your people are hungry, if they're afraid, and they believe the people in the head of the government are authoritarian.

When that happens, you can have a Colour Revolution. And every day, America does not break. Every day, the economy still stands. Every day, people wake up and realize their lives are not as hopeless as the media insists.

The revolutionaries lose their leverage. So the shutdown is not the crisis.

The crisis is the addiction to government medicine. So here's the battle line that matters, I think, most right now: While the press spins, you know, panic, Trump has to gather the brightest minds. The innovators, the disrupters. The people who build things, rather than manage decline. That's what he does best. You know, if Elon Musk could do for NASA, what Washington could not. Then why can't we find. Maybe even get Elon Musk. Why can't we unleash the same kind of thinking on health care.

It's time for radical thinking!

Imagine a system where your doctor spends more time listening, than actually checking boxes.

Imagine competition across state lines. Imagine prices that behave like normal prices because the market is finally allowed to work and government doesn't have its finger on the scale.

Imagine freeing the nurses and the physicians from the paperwork prisons they're in. And letting them practice medicine again.

This isn't utopian. That's just uncaptured America. The America before the bureaucratic glacier, settled over absolutely everything in our lives.

Trump is the one that can do this. He's -- he's hitting home runs, grand slams, all -- all the time.

All the time.

Health care is the crack in the wall, where sunlight is still getting through. If you solve this, if you solve the pressure and you -- you lower the pressure on the engine behind the Colour Revolution, you win!

You win. I'm not even talking about election.

You save the republic.

You solve this.

And you solve the fear that drives half of our political dysfunction.

Washington thinks the shutdown is a battlefield. It's not!

The battlefield is health care. The future is decided there. And the man who breaks that system open. And let's Americans breathe again, will shape this country for a generation.

And the only guy to do it, is Donald Trump.

THE GLENN BECK PODCAST

They're WATCHING You... The Terrifying Truth about Phone Surveillance

What if your phone knows what you’ll do before you do? Glenn Beck and former Navy SEAL Erik Prince expose the terrifying reality of modern surveillance, from the government’s secret data networks to Big Tech’s behavioral tracking systems. A global “surveillance capitalism” industry has been born, merging private corporations with intelligence agencies. Today, every app, ad, and algorithm harvests your movements, conversations, and even your thoughts. This conversation reveals how smartphones have become digital soldiers quartered in your home, and how privacy, freedom, and free will are vanishing in the age of data control.

Watch the FULL Interview HERE

America’s Economy Has CANCER - The Brutal Reality of What Trump NEEDS to Do Now

Glenn Beck warns that America’s economy is suffering from a deeper disease... one that can’t be cured by printing money, free checks, or political spin. With inflation rising, housing unaffordable, and healthcare collapsing under government control, Beck argues the nation faces a “cancer” that only painful but honest reform can heal. He and Stu Burguiere break down why short-term fixes like subsidies and stimulus will only fuel the crisis, and why the only real solution lies in deregulation, competition, and courage. Will Americans endure the hard medicine needed to save the nation, or turn to socialism out of desperation?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Welcome to the Glenn Beck Program.

Stu does not share my -- my optimism. And I -- you know, I think that's too strong of a word. I'm not optimistic.

I am hopeful that someone in Washington, on our side understands what we're facing here. That health care is the biggest win!

It's the biggest win. And totally winnable.

STU: Yeah. And I do think -- if -- you know, if it was the top priority of Donald Trump. I think, he would be able to move Republicans toward trying to come up with something, I guess.

But I don't show much optimism on that. Because as I was going through that whole scenario, it wasn't just that we said these rates would go up, and that the Affordable Care Act wouldn't be affordable and gave all of the reasons that wound up playing out with risk pools and everything else.

And it wasn't also that we would say, hey. They're going to try to solve this by more government subsidiary easy. And more dependence on government.

We said all that stuff. And that's what we just talked about.

But other thing we said was that after this thing got passed, the Republicans would bail on opposing it. We would no longer have an opposition. We're now to the part of the story where the right-wing position is just normal Obamacare.

And the left-wing position is new expand, fancy, times ten Obamacare. The question of whether we triple down on Obamacare.

Or double down on it. That's now a conservative position.

GLENN: Okay. So let me give you some hope.

I talked to Dr. Oz. And he said, they're introducing something here in the next couple of months.

Should be, any time now.

And it will be done at the state level. And it will be to stop all the barriers from state to state.

And you get -- you get your -- your -- your funding for different programs if you get rid of those barriers for your insurance companies.

And if you don't, well, you don't get your funding. And so they will be incentivized to do it.

So I do think that there's some thinking about this, that's going on, with RFK and Dr. Oz.

In fact, let's see if we can get them on. Maybe I'll go up to Washington and do a podcast with him.

Because I think this is the big win here. Because if you look, you have to -- you have to change the life of people, in the next 15 months. Twelve months, if you want to win the election!

And if you -- if you want to win with J.D. Vance. You're going to have to do it in the next 18 months, at the very minimum, okay?

It's going to get harder and harder to do it.

So you have -- you have the things. What are the levers the president has in front of him?

Housing. What is the problem with the housing market?

The housing market, there's a couple of problems.

One, we don't have -- we have a shortage of housing. Okay. Because everybody freaked out. You know, 2008, we had a housing glut. Now, maybe we should go to other way.

So we didn't build enough houses. So now we have this giant housing shortage.

So can the president fix this one quickly?

No. Millions of houses need to be built. And how is he going to do it?

Unless there's a land grab, okay?

Unless he opens up federal land, which we saw how that one went. So he can't really fix the housing thing. He could help it, by saying, "Hey, BlackRock, you guys stop buying houses."

But how do you do that?

I mean, is that the right thing to do? I mean, it's the right thing to do for the people. Constitutionally, can you do that?

I don't know. I don't think so.

The next cost that people are feeling. Electricity. What are you going to do with that?

Well, we know that he's building power plants. Or he is -- he is letting the red tape go, on the power plants.

So if you want to build a power plant, you can build a power plant, in record time.

But that, again, is 18, 24, 36 months away. Minimum! Before you have new power plants, where you'll start to see your electricity costs go down. So you can't do that. Food costs. What is he going to do?

Import cheaper food. That's not a good idea.

So what are you -- how do you affect the average person's money? Well, you can send them free money. Which means, we have to print more.

He's going to send free money. It's the money that he's been taking in from the trade barriers.

So he's saying, he's going to send a $2,000 check to people. And that's the first time I've ever seen a check where the money was actually money.

That we had. Not printed money.

But that's all you can do. You can even do that. That's all you can do. Because you can't print money. You can't have a stimulus. Or you will Jack the prices of everything up.

And you're in the same loop over and over and over again.

The only place where the government has the tools, has enough sway, Donald Trump could do this.

To start breaking this thing up.

Is health care. And that could change things pretty much overnight.

Within 12 months, if he acted today, within 12 months, you would start to see prices come down. You would start to see competition.

You would start to see some sort of relief. But what else does he have, Stu. What else can he do, that will change people's lives. And he knows he has to do that.

STU: Well, I mean, I -- generally, I think I agree with most of that.

I think that the health care is one, you could do.

Again, that's something you sign up for on an annual basis.

Even if the prices did drop, it would take a while for that to come in.

The easiest way to do this -- and he's, by the way, done a lot of this -- is deregulation. You know, I think what's happening with some of that. And we're not seeing tons and tons of results from that, is because I think he's doing things on the other side as well.

That are affecting prices the opposite way. So we're not going to see massive drops.

Of course, a lot of this -- there's a lot of big promises that are being made. When you talk about prices coming down, really fast. It's not always achievable.

The president of the United States. We said this for 100 million years, I feel like again, we're on repeat here. The president of the United States is not the guy that sets prices. That's not his job, right? He doesn't micromanage the economy.
He can do things that can help the economy. I think what's happening now, as you're pointing out. I think this is the desperation a little bit seeping into our politics.

Is that there were -- Trump won the election with a lot of people who had faith in him. Not because he was good on even the border or on -- you know -- you know, trans kids. You know, trans men playing women's sports. It was about -- it was that affordability issue. He was really good on that.

People believed that they would see an economy like they saw in 2018 to 2019, in his first term. And we're just so far, not really seeing that.

Now, there's a lot to unwind. From where Joe Biden was. And the way these prices work. When it comes to inflation. Is not necessarily that prices drop down.

That's what is so devastating about a long-term inflation like the one we got from Joe Biden.

The prices get to a set level.

You don't necessarily bring those prices down. As much as, you slow the increase.

Which is difficult.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah.

STU: Again, one of the focuses of Trump's economic plan is to try to draw a lot of these products to be made in the United States.

As you point out, that is a long-term process.

You're talking about way after Donald Trump is -- is out of office, before you're seeing the -- what -- the potential theoretical benefits of new factories being built in the United States.

It's going to be to take a long time for that to work, if you believe it's going to work. When you're talking about the other side of that. Which is, you know, increasing prices, based on different taxes and such.

You're -- you're winding up with a situation where you're taking the medicine, and you're waiting for those results to kick in over multiple periods of years.

So I think the way he can do a lot of this stuff.

The best thing he can do in a quick way. Is cutting regulation.

You can cut out a lot of this stuff, to increase the speed of the improvement. Like, you want to build a new power plant. He can cut those things from 12 years, to four!

But that's not going to -- it's not an immediate, you know, economic win.

GLENN: No.

STU: What you're talking about.

GLENN: The country has cancer. That's the problem. The country has cancer.

And we can survive. But it's -- going to take chemotherapy and a long time. And so you can't just go in.

If you have cancer, you can't go in and say, well, you know, you told me yesterday, you were going to start chemotherapy, and I had my first chemotherapy, and I feel worse.

And I'm not getting any better.

"It's been six months, Doc. And I'm not feeling any better."

Yeah. You're not going to feel any better at first. Because it's a serious disease. That's the issue that we're dealing with. The damage -- and we said this under Biden. We said this under the first Trump. We said this under Bush. You know, Reagan was saying this. At some point, the -- the sickness is going to be so bad, that there's not going to be anything that feels good to do. And it's going to get harder and harder to take the medicine.
And unfortunately, you know, everybody wants a quick fix. You know, when Reagan came in. And everything was out of control, you remember what Paul Volcker did?

You remember this, Stu?

STU: Yeah.

GLENN: You weren't old enough. But you know it through history. What did he do?

STU: He had to get rid of inflation. That meant jacking up rates. And that was a painful period.

GLENN: To what? To what?

STU: Eighteen to 20 percent, in that range.

GLENN: I think at the top it was 20 percent interest rates. I remember 19 percent interest rates. Nineteen. People are freaking out over five or six. We had 19 percent interest rates. That stopped everybody from buying. You want to talk about not being able to afford a house.

That was it! But that's what sucked all of that money back in.

Well, you can't do that right now. Because the patient is so sick, you can't -- those interest rates will kill everything. It will kill all the jobs.

The whole thing will collapse. So you can't do that. But we're complaining on 5 percent. You know, and we're wanting them lower and lower and lower and lower.

Well, yes.

I want that too. Because there are signs that jobs are going away. But jobs going away is not just the interest rate. It is also AI and automation.

We are in this really ugly place, that we don't have these honest questions, and really explain to each other, exactly what's -- what all of the forces are. You're going to get socialism.

Because that will seem like the only answer.

Just make it stop. Just make it stop.

Well, okay.

But know what all of the forces are that are causing all of these things.

And there is a way out of it.

It just cannot be done in two years!

It can't be!