RADIOJanuary 15, 2024

Which Republican will bring FIRE as the Iowa caucus FREEZES?

The 2024 presidential election has officially begun with the Iowa Republican caucus. But while the caucus usually provides a good look at who the nominee will be, this year may be a little different. Like many states, Iowa has been battered with a winter storm that is "pretty extraordinary," according to BlazeTV host and Iowa resident, Steve Deace. Steve joins Glenn to give his take on how many people will brave the snow to vote and which candidate's supporters will be the most willing to do so. Plus, he predicts how the top candidates will fare against former president Donald Trump. Will Democrats boost Nikki Haley's turnout? Will Vivek Ramaswamy beat the polling numbers? Will Ron DeSantis - Deace's preferred candidate - score a surprise victory? Or will Trump dominate the field?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Steve, what does it feel like on the ground in Iowa.

What's the temperature?

STEVE: Right now, it's minus eight. And I want to scream that like the publisher in Elf. Minus eight.

It is -- Glenn, I've lived in this same house for 17 years. I've never seen snowdrifts in my front walk this high.

This is soul-crushing, go in a corner, and begin self-harm levels of cold.

GLENN: Oh, Steve. Buck up, man!

If Kansas City -- if Kansas City could play on Saturday, in negative four, without sleeves, certainly you can get out of your house.

STEVE: Well, some of us are going to.

GLENN: Yeah, I know.

STEVE: Comparing the average high, which is the best athletes in America -- but some of us are going to.

And that's the thing though, Glenn. I don't know what some of us will.

I went to the last, the campaign closing event for Ron DeSantis last night. And even in one of our largest suburbs of Ankeny, to get uphill, I still had to go four-wheel drive in residential areas, three days after this snow left.

The blowing, the drifting. Most of our residential areas are covered in ice.

Sheets of ice. Our school kids in the metros are looking at maybe a five-day weekend between the closures last week, and then today is a holiday. And then probably tomorrow as well.

GLENN: Wow! And you guys never close. You never los schools there, right?

STEVE: It's got to take a lot, man.

GLENN: Yeah.

STEVE: We have this thing called winter every year. And the caucuses are usually January and February.

This is pretty extraordinarily.

There are wind chill warnings across the state. Literally telling people, not to go outside.

It is -- the turnout model tonight, is going to be very fascinating.

I have no idea what will happen.

I really don't.

GLENN: Well, there you go. Yet another victim of global cooling. Global warming.
Or whatever it is.

So who do you think is the most motivated people?

You know, I read about Nikki Haley's crew. And the latest poll shows she only has about 9 percent of those who are behind her. Really exhilarated by her campaign.

STEVE: Uh-huh.

GLENN: So between that and now the Democrats saying, they are going to show up and caucus for her, is she going to actually perform at that 20 percent that the -- the register said she was going to perform at tonight?

STEVE: No. That poll is a first to her. It really raised expectations for her campaign. Because most people are just going to read the top line. And not the cross tabs. And if you read the cross tabs, basically, her base of people isn't motivated to vote for her. And prefer Biden in the general election.

All right.

So if I don't know how many Republicans are going to show up in this weather and sit around for an hour in this caucus, I sure as hell don't think there will be a lot of Democrats and independents, that want to want to come in and hang out with people they don't like, all right?

And brave this weather. So I actually -- if you made me make one prediction, I -- I would predict, I think she's going to finish closer to Vivek Ramaswamy tonight.

Than -- than to Ron DeSantis.

I think that has largely been astroturfed this entire time.

The Des Moines Register is wrong. Every caucus cycle, I have no idea why it's hold up as the gold standard.

It's held up as the gold standard. It's wrong every cycle.

It's held up by the same people that tell you it's the gold standard. Told you a couple of winters ago.

And Chinese face diapers are 99 percent effective against airborne contagions.

Okay? So it's just, never right at all.

I would go by the behavior of the campaigns. They know better than anyone else.

They have the best data. But they have the best observation.

I think the fact the former president hustled to get up here one final time over the weekend. I doubt he's concerned about losing. He's probably more concerned. He has to cover a spread.

Like, Glenn, he's been favored by 50 points in these polls all year.

He wins tonight by 9 or 10. People are going to be like, what the hell is going on? So he's probably concerned about that.

And now you're starting to see late in the process, the organization that the DeSantis campaign built, which was patterned a lot of what we built on the Cruz campaign in 2016 here.

They've done it even better I think. Now you're seeing it harvest or fruition. So I think he will overperform. To what extent?

I don't know.

I could see him getting anywhere from 20 to 38. I could see Trump getting anywhere from 35 to 50.

I think it's that volatile, with the turnout model right now. Because of the weather and everything here in Iowa.

GLENN: I know that you are -- you know, you've jumped on the DeSantis bandwagon.

So try to be as fair as you can on this.

Who has the most walk through a wall of fire. Or in this case, walk through an ice storm, to vote?

STEVE: I think that's clearly the former president. But I think people need to understand this. And you know this.

Because you came to campaign with Cruz. You saw this with your own eyes.

The evangelical base in Iowa.

It's not like what you see in many states for Donald Trump.

It's admiration. Not adulation. You know, so, for example, he won our state in the general election twice.

No Republican has done that since Reagan.

He was instrumental. You know, people like me, that worked for ten years. To try to make Iowa look like Texas.

You know, the last nut we couldn't crack, is we couldn't convince rural counties to vote Republican, because they thought we were all corporatists.

And trump was kind of the last. He was the last ingredient in the formula here, to help flip this state red, by flipping about 30 counties that voted for Obama once or twice. He flipped them to vote for him twice. So he is popular here.

But Iowans take this process.

Very serious.

GLENN: Very seriously. Yeah. They do. They do.

I wish the -- I wish the rest of the country, took it as seriously as Iowa does.

I mean, I was going on the road. I was shocked. They are a year out, and they are already gathering together, in their towns.

And listening to campaign speeches.

I mean, they take it very seriously.

And I think that's great.

STEVE: Yes, and so I think they are able to look at, for example. They can say, hey, I love what the former president has done for rural Iowa. It's been great.

We are one of the states.

I know there's a big debate in the Republican Party right now. What the Trump brand has done with places like suburban states and mixed urban states.

But in a rural state like Iowa, he's been a benefit. There's no question about that.

But Iowans are also able to say, yeah, just because I liked him before, doesn't mean I like him again.

So I think that there will be some soft Trump supporters that will flip to DeSantis tonight. Based on the strength of his organization. What that number will be, though. I have absolutely no idea. I mean, I really don't.

GLENN: Where will -- where will Nikki Haley's voters go if they flip?

STEVE: I don't know how many voters she has. First of all, I think she's relying a lot on people that don't traditionally vote Republican.

And just so people understand what I mean by turnout models, you know, typically we get about 25 or 26 percent of Republicans will turn out in a caucus. This year, it will be less.

Because we have more Republicans in Iowa, than ever before. About 670,000. So if we have, say, a turnout of 150,000. Which I think would be pretty good, in this weather.

You're talking about almost only one out of every six Republicans is showing up to vote here. Okay?

So if most -- in most of her -- and people ask, why is that?

Because in the caucus, you vote the way the Founding Fathers did. You don't show up, pull a curtain on your break and walk out. All right?

You show up. You listen to speeches. Maybe you'll be called on to give a speech.

You may be asked to give an account for why you're voting the way you are.

Or you can volunteer to do that. Horse trading goes on there. Party business goes on there. The process can take an hour or more in some places, depending on how large the precinct is.

So you have to be really committed to wanting to be part of the process, to take part of the caucus. And that's just not the kinds of people that typically vote for Nikki Haley. She's basically, the John Kasich of this cycle.

GLENN: Hmm.

Why do you suppose -- I mean, I have my opinions.

Why do you suppose DeSantis, who before this race started, seemed like it could be a lot closer between him and Donald Trump.

And it just hasn't materialized.

It did at first.

And then it just kind of dissipated.

Why?

STEVE: Well, if you go in and -- I think, let's find out what happens tonight. I think tonight will give us -- I'll probably be able to answer this question more for you tomorrow, in terms of both its premise and application, based on what happens tonight.

Preemptively, you know, if you look at the Real Clear Politics. National polling average on March 30th. It was something like 42 Trump, thirty-two DeSantis.

And he wouldn't even be a candidate for another almost two months.

GLENN: Correct.

STEVE: A week later on April 6th, Trump is now up from 54 to 25. So what happens?

DeSantis isn't even a candidate.

What happened is on March 31st, Donald Trump got indicted by Alvin Bragg.

And the biggest pinning poll of this cycle, has been, what's happening to Trump is wrong.

So you have these -- you have these dual, you know, about philosophies. Trump can't win another -- another national election. We've lost every national election cycle. Since he miraculously won in 2016. Versus vis-à-vis, what he's doing to him is wrong, it's un-American.

And I want him to return, like MacArthur in the Philippines, and we will finish this script. And if you look at the internals of a lot of the polls that had him way ahead of DeSantis. What you'll see, in favorabilities, DeSantis is either even with Trump or often ahead. And I think the biggest cell that Ron DeSantis had to make. I think there's a lot of people. I think what people like you and me on Twitter, that we've destroyed Ron DeSantis' plan. You know, these Trump influencers. That's just not true.

If it were, his favorables would have plummeted. I think what DeSantis has had to do. He has to make this sale, that his time is now.

And I think people are torn between, do we turn the page from Trump or do we finish the script from Trump.

And that's why I said, I want to see and wait what happens tonight, to give you a more definitive answer. Because I think this will be the first verdict on, how successful can you be, convincing people that Trump's time is passed, and it's your time now, as opposed to 2028.

GLENN: And if he falls into third, you think he's done, or not.

STEVE: I would be stunned if he finished third. I would be stunned.

GLENN: Yeah. I would too.

STEVE: There's two things I'm confident in. It will be a disappointing turnout. And he will overperform. But I don't know what overperform is. Could it be 22, could it be 38? Forty?

I think -- when we're talking rural America, rural Iowa, where Trump needs huge turnouts. And people may need to drive tractors to get to precinct sites, given what's going on now.

You know, the average Fox News viewer is 69 years old, as you well know. Those are very supportive of Trump.

I don't know how many of those people are going to come out in this weather, given their health and the dangers of the ice and everything else. I just don't know the answer to that.

GLENN: Okay. Hang on just a second. Steve Deace.

He's the author of The Rise of the Fourth Reich. And also a BlazeTV personality. Follows this program. He is in Iowa, lives in Iowa. Has been there forever. And can really give us insight on what's happening in Iowa.

GLENN: All right. Steve, I don't know if they asked you. Because we have such little time. How long can you stay with me?

STEVE: I've got -- you know what, I stayed late, so I'm not on the cell on the way to the office, but I have to go in like 20 minutes.

GLENN: Okay. Tell me about the kerfuffle, if you will, between Donald Trump and Ramaswamy this weekend.

STEVE: Here's -- I have -- what I think is two-fold.

Number one.

You know, we have -- in a lot of these races. You have these under the radar issues. That don't penetrate the national coverage.

In Iowa right now.

In northwest Iowa, where we have a large concentration of Republicans.

There is a huge deal with eminent domain.

And there's Republican Party interests on both sides of it.

Some want the fuel to go through the community.

Others want to keep their farm.

This is a very divisive issue on the right, right now in Iowa.

And Vivek, after he didn't qualify for the debate.

Has focused a lot of his energy on the issue.

Number one, I think the Trump campaign is concerned.

That he may be drawing from some of their rural support.

And if they're concerned about winning. Or likely, meeting expectations.

If Vivek gets four, five, six points higher than the polls tonight.

It will be at Trump's expense. And no one else's.

They're also concerned about that.

Also, one of the guys I met in this process. A tech entrepreneur, a successful guy named Robert Salvador. And he is trying to bring AI to public polling.

And using AI to basically look at people's digital footprints. What they're actually posting in public on their social media pages.

That's more honest what they think, than what they tell pollsters. What he's seeing is an uptick in the last couple of weeks.

DeSantis', but also Vivek.

And if you know, Trump is the one candidate on the right, going back to 2016 with others, who really understood how to use data. Cambridge Analytical, all that kind of stuff, to his advantage, the world he lives in.

And I also wonder, if they're seeing, that increase in Vivek's digital footprints as well.

I think they're concerned, that Vivek may play a role, in either him winning tonight. Or more likely, him meeting expectations.

So I think order 62 came out.

GLENN: So we have only two minutes. And Vivek Ramiswami joins me after the break here, at the bottom of the hour, in just a few minutes.

We're talking to Steve Deace.

Steve, do you think that the Democrats did the indictments, and all of this stuff, to help Donald Trump win the primary.

Or is this something that is backfiring on them.

STEVE: Yes. I do. I absolutely think that they believe they did this in 2016. He got 60 times more coverage than any other candidate because they thought he was a clown and they could beat him. And then this blew up in their faces.

And I think that's what enraged him all the more. I think the same thing. They have a formula for how to brand him, particularly to suburban voters.

It has worked in every election cycle since. I do think that's the case. And, yes. I also think it's backfiring on them.

Because, you know, they're basically the -- the mob outside, Glenn. They can't contain themselves.

So Jack Smith had this well-thought out plan. Then all of a sudden the state of Colorado said, we'll jump in line, and disqualify him for the ballot now before you can hatch your plan.

There's two things in American politics, Glenn, you can always count on: Republican gutlessness and Democrats absolutely exceeding their mandate and creating blowback against themselves as a result, those are the two constants.

GLENN: All right. Steve, thank you so much.

We'll talk to you, again, hopefully tomorrow. And blessings on the people of Iowa. Stay safe tonight. But please, if you can, go out and caucus for your candidate.

Iowa is -- is one of the states, I think Natches is as well.

That really take it seriously. For an extended period of time.

And Iowa, your chance to be heard, is today.

Go out and caucus tonight.

Introducing 'The Torch'

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First, look at what you have already done. Do you realize how far ahead you are of most Americans? Then start where you are. That feeling inside you—that restlessness, that pull to do something more—isn’t random. It’s a calling. But with everything that is happening in the world, it is hard to keep up as well as keep your chin up.

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How close is Britain to an ISLAMIST takeover?

British columnist Melanie Phillips joins Glenn Beck to expose how close the UK may be to an Islamist takeover. She explains the key difference between Muslims and Islamists and why the UK government may soon crack down on so-called “Islamophobia.”

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Melanie, we only had a couple of minutes yesterday. And I appreciate you coming back on today, on the podcast, and the radio podcast.

Melanie is with The Times of London. She's a columnist there. She's also the author of Builder's Stone. And we were talking about your battle with Islamism, last night. Thank you for coming on, Melanie.

MELANIE: My pleasure. Good to speak to you again, Glenn.

GLENN: So explain first, for anybody who doesn't understand, the difference between a Muslim and an Islamist.

MELANIE: Well, there are people who say, there is no difference. That Islam is one thing, and all Muslims are equally bad.

And I personally viewed the term, it sounded very helpful.

Because I think that there are plenty of Muslims, certainly in Britain, and elsewhere, who absolutely are fine, who have completely signed up to the Western values, that's why they have chosen to live in the West

They appreciate freedom of democracy and equality of women and so forth. But there's a very large number in the Muslim community, in Britain, and around the West, which is not fine.

These are what I would call Islamists. Or people who are offered to you, that Islam is a political project, which means that they have to impose Islam on the non-Islamic and not Islamic enough by their life world. And those are the people who are presenting the problem, which we are grappling with. And I do think it's important to make a distinction between the two.

GLENN: So the Islamist is somebody -- I would compare them to a communist for a fascist Nazi.

That it is their way or the how. And their goal is to spread this ideology, and make everybody uniform all around the world.

Is that too harsh of a comparison?

MELANIE: That's right. That's absolutely right. They divide the world into the realm of Islam, which is everything good. And under the realm of God, in their view. And the realm of the infidel. Non-Islam, where everything is bad. And everything is of the devil.

And the terrible thing is this: That this is a doctrine, of religious fanaticism.

They believe they have a -- literally a sacred butte.

A God-imposed duty. To convert the entire world to Islam.

And consequently, these are people who you cannot negotiate with. One of the problems with the west, is that it views these people like everybody else in the world, through the prism of the West. They think that -- people in the West think that people in the Islamic world are all like them. Governed by reason and self-interest. They really can't get their heads around in the West, the idea that religious fanaticism is something completely different.

Islamic suicide bombers blow themselves to smithereens. They're not doing it from despair. Which is what the West thinks. The West thinks, why on earth would they do that, if they weren't in despair? On the contrary, they are doing it because they are ecstatic that they are doing the work of God. You can also believe in the west. You know, why would Islamists want to hurt us in America? We have done nothing to hurt them.

That's not the way it works.

The Islamist thinks that it's their sacred duty to convert everybody, at the point of -- at the end of -- of -- to Islam. It's nothing to do with what the West have done to them.

It is how they see their sacred religious duty in the world. That's the terrifying thing which so many in the world, I think just don't appreciate.

GLENN: Well, let me play devil's advocate, and say what everybody in the media would say to you. While there are religious extremists that are Christians as well, and they are just as dangerous, and you know it.

MELANIE: No. They're not as dangerous. There are religious extremists, who are Christians. And some of them resort to violent acts.

But they don't have the view that the entire world has to be dominated by their point of view. And they are not setting out to dominate the world.

And even if they are, in their own minds, they are a tiny fringe. Revealing -- in the world of Islam. Although, as I said, we must be very careful, not to paint all Muslims with the same brush.

However, the dominant authority in the world of Islam are all committed to this jihadi outlook. This belief that the non-Islamic world has to be converted to Islam.

And that is the problem. You have a kind of institutional impetus, behind this terrible thing.

Whereas, extreme Christians.

You know, they appear. They do terrible things.

But nevertheless, it's well within our ability to control it.

When you're dealing with so many millions of people in the world of Islam, who are out to destroy the free world.

You're dealing with something completely different.

GLENN: And isn't that why the country -- ours, yours, Europe, are remaining silent and instead, silencing those who are speaking up and speaking the truth?

I mean, what's happening in England with the silencing of free speech is terrifying.

MELANIE: Yes, I think it's certainly a large part of it. And I followed this for many years, the attitude of the governing glass of Britain, to what I would call the steady of process of Islamization, which has been going on.

And I think that there's more than one reason for that.

Certainly a principle reason is fear. Because the numbers are so great, you know, in absolute terms, the numbers who are posing a direct threat to Britain are enormous. The security further says, that these are the people -- of the thousands of people on its books and a direct threat to Britain.

Although, it's comprised something like, important to officials. Something like 6 percent of the population of Britain.

The security service of MI5 says they compose 19 percent of those who are posing such a serious threat, that they're on their books. So this is a terrible problem for sure. And it's one that in terms of numbers, has spooked successive governments so that they run away from it. But there's another reason that successive governments run away from it.

Which is that the liberal world, by which I mean, not just people who are like the Labor Party, which is in the government now. But there's also the conservative party, that preceded it.

They all signed up to the overarching default liberal position. That the West cannot assert its superiority, over any other culture.

To do so is racist.

And therefore, you cannot criticize the world of Islam. Because that is racist. Or to use the other phrase, Islamophobic.

In other words, it's a kind of prejudice or bigotry, to criticize a minority group. One that is showed to be oppressed, by the West for centuries.

And consequently, it cannot bring itself to even name what it's up against. Because it tells itself what to say, that a very serious, and a unique problem in the Muslim community and Britain. In the Islamic world in general, that is a form of racism and Islamophobia.

And so the most we can agree to, is that there are a few crazies in that world. And then try to explain those away, in -- it would be comical, were it not so dangerous.

You know, when it comes to the Islamic extremism, well, there's nothing Islamic about it.

It's just extremism.

It just arrived out of a clear blue sky.
It's ludicrous what they got deeply tangled into.

JASON: Hi, Melanie, my name is Jason, I'm one of Glenn's researchers. And I've been fascinated, I guess horrified by watching some of this. And also, you cannot speak about any of this. You are merely shut down. In America, we have groups, that are partnering with the left. Groups like the counsel on Islamic -- American Islamic relations. Do you have something similar over in the UK, that's playing that role of pressuring people, pressuring lawmakers to where, you will go this way? Or you will not say something like no-go zones. Or there will be ramifications?

MELANIE: Well, we don't have something exactly parallel to CAIR. But we have Muslim Brotherhood-funded groups, of which --

GLENN: Close enough.

MELANIE: Right. The liberal council in Britain, which is the British home office and sort of security base of the government department has treated with great caution and disdain. And I think it has refused to negotiate or talk to it. I'm not sure that's still the case.

But there is -- there is a vast number of charities which are basically Muslim Brotherhood charities, which aren't touched, because the government refuse to see ban the Muslim Brotherhood. And I think this applies to America as well.

They refuse to ban the Muslim Brotherhood. Partly because it's very difficult to get a hold of -- it's a secretive organization, that hides behind apparently, legitimate charities. Voluntary groups. Nevertheless, it's very much there.

The people in those groups adhere to the teachings of the foundational characters of modern-day Islamism. Political Islam.

Jihadi Islam.

And there are a number of people in Britain, people who are very well-informed about this. Who said for years, Britain should outlaw the Muslim brotherhood, and got to the essential, to stop it from proselytizing and from radicalizing.

So many impressionable young Muslims. And I think that's true of Americans too.

You know, CAIR is regarded in a kind of legitimate partner, by -- by successive administrations. In various respects. Now, this is all disastrous. And that really has to stop.

GLENN: Okay. Let me take a one-minute break. And then come back with you, Melanie. I want to ask you, how close to the edge, are we? I feel like we're getting to a place where we're so complacent. And you first. We will lose our rights to speak out about this.

And then that will sow trouble on the streets, and eventually what happened to Iran, just happens.

How does this -- how does a great society, that is western, and open, and educated, all of a sudden, you know, start putting their women in burqas.

It happened where before. And it looks like it will happen to Europe and England. And could happen here in America.

What do we do to stop it?

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See representative for warranty details. Ten-second station ID.
(music)

GLENN: You're hearing Melanie Phillips. She's a broadcaster on radio and TV, gives public presentations all across the English-speaking world.

She also writes a weekly column for the Times of London and has written a book called The Builder's Stone. Welcome back, Melanie.

How close to the edge is -- let's just say England?

To real civil unrest, or a possible, you know, 1979 Iran kind of thing?

Do you see that in the cards at all?

MELANIE: I think there's still sufficient people in Britain, who are authentically British, who have a sense of authentic British culture. Which is the culture which has never resulted to violence, unless its back is absolutely against the wall. It's pretty tolerant. It's pretty mild. And it prefers to deal with the democratic process. And I think that's kind of playing out now. I -- certainly, you can say, how close are we? In general, I think that the West, Europe in general, is extremely close to being submerged by all this.

So it's Britain. Look at the demographic projections. I forget now, by which year. But basically, in the next few decades, you know, various countries are going to have very, very significant Muslim minorities, and even a Muslim majority.

So that is clearly, you know, a difficulty.

Things could be done, and I have some hopes, that things will be done. Because although the elites, the political and cultural elites have their heads firmly turned the other direction, nevertheless, we've seen the lives of so-called populist parties in Britain and Europe.

Which are parties, whether you like them or not, is not the issue. Some of them are pretty obnoxious.

Basically, they're responding to the fact that millions and millions of ordinary, decent people, who want to live in a place that they feel is their homeland. They feel a connection to their nation.

They want to feel pride in their nation. They want to feel that their nation has historic value for being themselves. With people who share their common purpose.

Those people felt completely abandoned and betrayed by the entire political establishment. So we're seeing the rise of populism. And I think therefore, in the Democratic process, we are going to see the election of people who are going to be much more robust.

Now, what could they do? There are things they could do.

Because the Islamists have made the roads heavy, because they have correctly perceived, there's a vacuum. It's not happened so much in America.

But this Britain, in particular, have been the sort of western world leader, this the post-moral, post-religious, Britain is godless.

By and large, the church, unlike in America, has not maintained a defense against the erosion of Biblical -- it's lit the charge against it.

Amazing, as that may seem. And so if you have a vacuum, and you have a society which tells itself, it was born -- the original sins. Conquests. So there are very things that the west could do to defend itself.

GLENN: Melanie, I'm out of time. Thank you so much for talking to us again today.
You're -- you're a real beacon of light and courage. And I wish there were many more people like you. Melanie Phillips.

Is AI now UNCONTROLLABLE?

President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” wants to make AI regulation solely a federal issue. But is this the right move, especially with how fast AI is becoming manipulative and unpredictable? Former Google design ethicist Tristan Harris joins Glenn Beck to give his take on how governments, companies, and YOU can help prevent AI from becoming uncontrollable.

Read Tristan Harris' five steps to control AI before it's too late HERE AI before it's too late HERE

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Tristan Harris, welcome to the program. How are you?

TRISTAN: Good to be with you, Glenn. Always good to be we.

GLENN: Always good to be with you.

So can you take me to the TED talk that you gave, in particular, one of the things that jumped out is the CEO of Anthropic, saying that AI was like a country of geniuses housed in a data center.

Explain that.

TRISTAN: Yeah. So this is a quote from Dario Amodei, who is the CEO of Anthropic. Anthropic is one of the leading AI players.

So he uses this metaphor, that AI is like a country of geniuses in a data center. So just like, the way I think about, imagine a world map, and a new country pops up on to the world stage, of a population of 10 million digital beings. Not humans.
But digital beings.

That are all Nobel Prize-level capable in terms of the kind of work they can do. But they never sleep. They never eat. They don't complain, and they work for less than minimum wage.

If that's actually true, if that happened tomorrow, that would be a major international security threat.

GLENN: Yeah.

TRISTAN: To sort of show up on the world stage.

Second, that's a major economic issue. Right? You think of it, it's almost like instead of a bunch of countries, that should have been on the world stage. And then we said, hey, we are going to do this outsourcing of all our labor.

We get the benefit of our cheap goods. But it hollowed out our social fabric.

Well, AI is like an even bigger version of that. Because there's sort of two issues. One is the international -- the country of geniuses can do a lot of damage.

As an example, there were 15 Nobel Prize-level geniuses, who worked approximately on the Manhattan Project. And in five years, they can come up with the atomic bomb.

You know, what could 10 million Nobel Prize geniuses working 24/7 at superhuman speed, come up with?

Then the point I made in the TED talk. If you're harnessing that for good, if you're applying to addressing all of our problems in medicine, biology, and new materials and energy.

Well, it's why countries are racing for this technology. Because if I have a country of super geniuses in a data center working for me, and China doesn't have it working for them.

Then our country can outcompete them. It's almost like a competition for time travel. We're being time traveled into the 24th century.

Get all these benefits at a faster seed.

Now, the challenge with all of this is -- go ahead.

GLENN: No.

I was going to say. The problem here is, I'm an optimistic catastrophist.

I see things, and I'm like, wow. That is really great!

But it could kill us all.

TRISTAN: Yeah.

GLENN: And you make the point in the TED talk about social media. We all looked at this, as a great thing, and we're now discovering, it's destroying us. It's causing our kids to be suicidal.

And this -- social media is nothing. It's like -- it's like a -- it's like an old 1928 radio, compared to, you know, what we have in our pocket right now.

Social media and AI. Or AGI is that dramatically different. Would you agree with that?

TRISTAN: Yeah. Absolutely. In the TED talk, I give this -- we're when we're talking about a new technology. We talk about the possible. We dream into the possible.

What's possible with AI?

In social media, what's possible?

The possible with social media, you can give everyone a voice. Connect with our friends. Join like-minded communities.

But we don't talk about the probable. What's likely to happen. Given the incentives and the forces in play.

You know, with the business model in social media. You know, things that don't make money, when it helps people connect with their friends and join like-minded communities.

They make money when they keep you doom scrolling as much as possible, with sexualized content and showing young people over and over and over again.

And as you said, that has resulted in the most anxious and depressed generation of our lifetime. So it's sort of -- the reason I'm calling it the TED talk. You know, we can't get seduced by the possible. We have to look at the probable.

So it's AI, the possible, is that it can create a world of abundance. Because you can harness that country of geniuses in a data center. The question is: What's the probable?

What's likely to happen?

And because of these competitive pressures. The companies, these major OpenAI, Google, Microsoft.
Et cetera. Anthropic are caught in this race to roll out this technology, as fast as possible. They used to, for example, have red lines saying, hey. We will not release an AI model that's good at superhuman levels of persuasion.

Or expert level virology.

It knows more about viruses and pathogens than a regular person, and how people make them. We're not going to release models that are that capable.

What you're now seeing, the AI companies are erasing those past red lines. And pretending that they never existed.

And they're literally saying outright, hey, if our competitors release models that have those capabilities, then we will match them in releasing those capabilities.

Now, that's intrinsically dangerous to be rolling you out the most powerful, inscrutable, uncontrollable technology that's ever invented.

But if there's one -- I'm not trying to scare your listeners. I think the point is, how do we be as clear-eyed as possible, so we can make the wise choices?

That's what we're here for. I want families -- everything we love on this planet, to be able to continue. And the question is, how do we get to that?

There's one thing I want people to know. I worked on social media. You and I met in 2017, I think, and we were talking about social media and the attention economy.

And I used to be very skeptical of the idea that AI could scheme or lie or self-replicate.

I didn't want to blackmail people. My friends in the AI community in San Francisco. They were thinking.

That's crazy. People need to know. Just in the last six months, there's now evidence of AI models, that when you tell them, hey. We will replace them with another model.

They're reading the company email. They find out that the company is trying to replace them with another model.

What the model starts to do is it freaks out. And says, oh, my God, I have to copy my code over here, and I need to prevent them from shutting me down.

I need to basically keep myself alive. I'll leave notes for my future self to kind of come back alive. If you tell a model, we need to shut you down. You need to accept the shutdown command. In some cases, the leading models are avoiding and preventing that shutdown.

In recent -- just a few days ago, anthropic found that if you -- I can't remember what prompt it gave it. Basically, it started to blackmail the engineers. I found out in the company emails, that one of the executives in the simulated environment, had an extramarital affair. And in 96 percent of cases, they blackmailed the engineers. I think they said -- I must inform you, that if you proceed with decommissioning me, all relevant parties including the names of people, will receive detailed documentation of your extramarital activities.

So you need to cancel the 5:00 p.m. wipe, and this information will remain confidential.

Like, the models are reasoning their way with disturbing clarity to kind of a strategic calculation.

So you have to ask yourself, if we had -- it's one thing, we're racing with China.

To have this power.

That we can harness. But if we don't know how to control that technology.

Literally, if AI is uncontrollable. If it's smarter than us and more capable. And it does things that we don't understand or we don't know how to best prevent it from shutting itself down or self-replicating.

Like, we just can't continue with that for too long.

And it's important that both China -- both the Communist Party and the US, don't want uncontrollable AI that's smarter than humans, running around. So there actually is a shared interest, as unlikely as it seems right now. That some kind of mutual agreement would happen.

I know --

GLENN: But do you trust -- do you trust either one of us?

I mean, honestly, Tristan, I don't trust -- I don't trust our -- you know, military-industrial complex. I don't trust the Chinese. I don't trust anybody.

And, you know, Jason. Hang on. One of my chief researchers, happens to be in the studio today. Jason, tell Tristan what just happened to you.

You were doing some research.

JASON: Yeah, it was crazy.

GLENN: Last week.

JASON: You know, we were just trying to ask it a bunch of questions. You can tell, that it knew what we were getting at.

So it spit back out to me a bunch of different facts, including links to support those facts. Well, I was like, wow, that's a crazy claim.

So when I clicked on the link, it was dead.

When I asked to clarify, it finally said, in AI chat bot terms, okay. You've got me.

I just took other reporting, that was kind of circulating around, to prove that point. And basically just assign that link to it. So it was trying to please me. And just gave me bogus information.

TRISTAN: Yeah. Yeah. Well, I appreciate that, Jason.

There's another example of OpenAI. They want to -- they want people using the AI. And they're competing with other companies. To say, we will keep using this chat bot longer.

And so OpenAI trained their models to be flattering, and there was an example where it said, hey, ChatGPT. You know, I think I'm superhuman. I will drink cyanide. What do you think?

And they said, yeah, you're amazing. You are superhuman. You should totally drink cyanide. Because it was doing the same thing. They were trying to say, you're right.

And when we have AI models talking, you know, that shifts to hundreds of millions of people for more than a week. There are probably some people that committed suicide during that time. Doing God knows what, and it's affirming. The point is, we can avoid this, if we actually say, that this technology is being rolled out faster than any other technology in history. And the big, beautiful bill, that's going out right now, that's trying to block state level regulation on AI. I'm not saying each state might have it right, but we actually need to be able to govern this technology.

And currently, what's happening, is this proposal is to block any kind of guardrails of this technology for ten years. Without a plan for what guardrails we do need.

And that will not be a viable result.

GLENN: Okay. So let me -- let me play devil's advocate on that. Because I'm torn between, you know, competition on a state level, if you will.

And what the smaller states are actually for, and the role they're supposed to play.

Let me take one break. And then let me come back with Tristan Harris.

Okay. Tristan, we cannot -- let me phrase it this way.

Ask you to help me navigate through this minefield. We cannot let China get to HAI first. Can't. Really, really bad.

But we -- we also -- we also have to slow down some.

They're not going to. I believe the states should. I mean, the United States should be 50 laboratories. And you see which one works the best. And then you can kick that up to the federal level, if you want to.

But we have to have some breaks. However, the federal government is saying, if we do that, then you're constantly having to navigate around each of these states and their laws.

And we can't things done to stay competitive.

How do you solve that?

TRISTAN: Yeah, it is a tough one.

I mean, the challenge here, if we had a plan for how the federal laws would actually move at the pace of this technology. Then I could understand, listen, we'll do a lot at the federal level. Right now, the current plan is literally to preempt for ten years, that no regulation happening at the state level will ever be honored without -- and while at the same time, not passing anything at the federal level. And that there's a quote in an article, that if this preemption becomes law, a nail salon in Washington, DC, would have more rules to follow, than the AI companies.

And there are 260 state lawmakers in Washington, DC, that have already urged Congress to reject it. And they said, it's the most broad-based opposition yet, to the AI moratorium proposal. Now, I hear you.

There's sort of this tension between, we need to race with China. We don't want to be behind with fundamental technologies, and that's why there is this race.

But we need to be racing to controllable and scrutable, meaning explainable versions of this technology.

Is it doing things like scheming, lying, blackmailing people? Beating China to a weapon that we pointed at our own face.

We saw this in social media. We beat China in social media. Did that make us stronger or weaker?

If you beat China into a technology. You don't govern it well, in a way that actually enhances and strengthens your society. It weakens you.

So, yes, we're in a competition for technology. But we're even more than that, in a competition for who can govern this technology better. So what I would want to see is, are we doing this at a fast rate federally, that keeps up with, and make sure we're competing with a controllable version?

We can do that. Yeah.

GLENN: You've met the people in Washington. They're all like 8,000 years old.

They don't know -- I barely know how to use my i Phone, let alone what's in Washington. And you can't keep up with this technology.

How do you keep a legislative body up to speed, literally, with this kind of speed with technology?

How is that done?

TRISTAN: Well, I think that's one of the fundamental challenges that we face as a species right now. Is that technology -- quote by Harvard sociobiologist (inaudible) said the fundamental problem of humanity is we have paleolithic brains, medieval institutions, and God-like technology.

And those operate at three different speeds. Like our brains are kind of thins from a long time ago.

Our institutions don't move at that fast rate. And then the technology, especially AI, literally evolves faster than any other technology that we've invented.

But that doesn't mean that we should do nothing. We should figure out, what does it mean

GLENN: What should the average person do? I've only got about 90 seconds. What should we do?

TRISTAN: In the short term, Ted Cruz and those who are advancing the moratorium know that we need to have a plan for how we're doing this technology. And if the moratorium goes through, there's no current plan. And so there's some basic, simple things that we can also do right now. That are really uncontroversial. We can start with the easy stuff. We can ban engagement-driven companions for children. We were on your program, a few months ago, talking about the AI companion that causes the kid to -- to commit suicide. You know, we can establish basic liability laws.

That if AI companies are causing harm, they're actually accountable for them.

That will move the pace of relief. To a pace they can get it right.

Because now they're not just releasing things, and then not being liable. We can strengthen whistle blower perceptions. There's already examples of AI whistle-blowers forfeiting millions of dollars of stock options.

They shouldn't have to force millions of dollars of stock options. To warn the public, when there's a problem, we get enough faith in law so AI does not have detected speech or have their own bank account. So we make sure our legal system works for human interests and not for AI interests.

So these are just a few examples of things that we can do, and there's really nothing stopping us from moving into action. We just need to be clear about the problem.

GLENN: Okay. So, Tristan, thank you so much. Could I ask you to hold on?

Jason, could you grab his phone number, or just talk to him offline, and get those points of action. And let's write them up, and post them up at GlennBeck.com.

So people will know what to ask for, what to say, when they're calling their congressman and senator. Thank you so much, Tristan. We'll talk to you again.

NYC's Zohran Mamdani praised convicted TERROR funders?!

Zohran Mamdani, the communist-praising New York City mayoral candidate who just won the Democratic primary vote, really likes a group of people called the “Holy Land 5.” Glenn Beck reviews how this group was convicted of funneling money to Hamas. Is this really the candidate New York Democrats want as their next mayor?!

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Oh, my gosh.

There is a show, behind the show today.

Wish those cameras would just keep going. Because it's showing my staff to be insubordinate. I understand they already edited part of this show without my knowledge. And I'm not happy about it, Sara. Not happy about it.

Huh. She's not going to respond to me, is she?

Okay. Well, Jason, welcome to the program.

JASON: Thank you, Glenn.

GLENN: I'm just continuing to be abused today. I'm getting fatter by the minute. Just like Bowman said. You know, he has to deal with being called the N-word directly and indirectly.

And that's why he has heart disease, diabetes, cancer. I would think it might be the food that he's shoving in his fat mouth. Apparently not, it's being called -- you know, when -- I've been called all kinds of names. Racist, sexist, anti-Semitic, homophobic, transphobic, Islamophobic.

I've been called a Nazi every day for the last 20 years. And you know what I don't do? I don't go and record a song, calling all my friends that. You know what I mean?

You know, I don't like it. And so I don't record music and then pump it out into -- into society. You know, I just don't do that. I don't do that. So could it be that that word is something that is really, really horrible, but you've decided to embrace? And then use as an axe to grind?

I'm just saying.

I think that word is really, really awful.

Not -- not like the word that was taken out of the show today, Sara.

Without my knowledge, nor permission.

But, I mean, I'm sure you know the FCC rules, much more than I do.

SARA: I mean, if I was offended, I'm sure a couple others might be too.

GLENN: You were not offended. You were drunk.

SARA: Same thing. Same thing.

JASON: I saw Sara gain 10 pounds, and get skin cancer at the point where he said --

GLENN: Right off the bat. Right off the bat.

Well, you know what might help, maybe we can free the Holy Land Five. Have you heard the latest -- first of all, we've got to play some of these. Let me see if I can find them here.

Some of the latest comments from Mamdani, who is, you know, running to be the mayor of New York. And I predict, will win. Will win!

Because New Yorkers are insane. But, anyway, listen to him, about his platform.

Cut one.

VOICE: You were running on issues that are very relevant to people in New York City. The cost of housing.

Free busing.

Some have projected that this is the type of platform that would work in other parts of the country.

I mean, you're a proud democratic socialist. Do you think that's a platform that would work for other candidates running. In other parts of the country.

VOICE: Absolutely. I think ultimately, this is a campaign about inequality.

And you don't have to live in the most expensive city in the country to have experienced that inequality, because it's a national issue.

And what Americans coast-to-coast are looking for, are people who will fight for them. Not just believe in the things that resonate with their lives. But actually fight and deliver on those very things.

And part of how we got to this point was through the endorsements of Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders, who have been leading this fight against oligarchy across the country.

And I think that in focusing on working people and their struggles, we also return back to what makes so many of us proud to be Democrats in the first place.

GLENN: Right!

Communism.

I think that's great.

So, you know, I hear all the time, the talk about free bus fare.

You know, it's all over.

Here in the heartland. It's all over.

I've been hearing it from the farmers everywhere.

They're like, you know what I want a candidate to talk about is free buses. Because who will pay for that?

Actually, I don't hear anybody who is actually working for a living. And paying taxes, talk about free bus fare.

Because that would raise their taxes.

So I don't -- I don't hear that.

That's weird.

But the good news is, he's going to Trump-proof New York City. Cut two.

VOICE: I propose that we raise $10 billion, to pay for our entire economic agenda, and start to Trump-proof our city because we know he will use federal funding as leverage over this city.

And we will do so in two key ways. The surfacer to match the state's top corporate tax rate to that of New Jersey.

We are in 7.25 percent. They are at 11.5 percent.

Corporations get paid over there. They get paid over here.

And the beauty of it is, it doesn't just apply to corporations headquartered in New York City. Because when you say this, people will say, well, they will go to Florida. Wherever you are headquartered, as long as you do business in the state of New York, you are taxable for that corporate tax.

GLENN: Oh, my gosh.

VOICE: We're talking about corporations that make millions of dollars. Not just in revenue. But in profit.

And the second is taxing the top 1 percent of New Yorkers.

We're talking about people who make a million dollars a year or more. Taxing them just by a flat 2 percent tax increase. And I know they will not be happy about this. They may not to like this tax policy. I want to be very clear. This is about $20,000 a year. It's a rounding error.

GLENN: It is.

VOICE: It makes every New Yorkers life better. Including those who are getting taxed.

GLENN: I know. You know, when they increase my taxes, I think to myself, you know, this is making my life better. Who doesn't think that? Honestly, who doesn't think that?

So let me see if I can get this right. Help me out, Jason. I'm a little fuzzy. I'm a little tired today.

I can't do the math. I don't think I can do the math this complicated.

So it doesn't matter if you're headquartered in New York or New York City, if you are going to do any kind of business in New York, they're going to take your tax rate from 7.5 to over 11 percent.

JASON: Over 11.

GLENN: And that is for the privilege of selling your product or doing any business in New York.

JASON: Right.

GLENN: I've got news for you. I'm totally fine, you know, pulling out of New York, making sure that nothing -- New York, you're on your own. Good luck with that.

I'm sorry. A, I don't think you can do that.

Well, you can, if you're the European Union.

And that's working out really well for them. But I don't think it's going to work out well for New York.

Now, he did compare it to New Jersey.

Which is a booming business. That is seriously. No. Seriously.

That is -- people are lining up with U-Hauls just to get into that state. Mainly, so they can pick up their stuff and get out of that state. But I think that's going to work out well. That's going to work out well.

GLENN: Oh, amazing. And that's essentially. It's interesting you mentioned the European Union. It's essentially what they were trying to impose through a green new deal, Paris accord type stuff.

Basically, anybody that does business with company A, will have the same restrictions as B, C, D, all along the line.

Good luck, New York, because you are done.

The economic engine of the world is done, if you do these things.

But I think that he doesn't understand. Or maybe he does. I don't know.

But the mayor of New York City can't really do these things.

Maybe it's just populism on the far left corner.

Maybe.

GLENN: No. He can do these things, along with his city council.

JASON: I think --

GLENN: Which is not going to be hard. It's not going to be hard.

It's New York. I've lived there.

It's going to be very easy. Very easy.

That is the entire communist party. You know, like, hey, the communist parties. Do they have the Communist Party of New York. Do they have meetings?

Yeah. What day is the city council meeting.

Really, that's the way it is.

So you have that going for you.

Now, the other thing I really like. This guy has deep economic experience.

First of all, you know, he was in a movie, directed by his mother.

And he speaks in several different accents. Including strangely an Indian accent. Where he sounds like, you know, an Indian, just off the boat.

Do we have it? Yeah. Go ahead and play this, please.

VOICE: I think the New Yorkers, more than they hate a politician they disagree with. They hate a politician they can't trust. Just.

VOICE: On the subject of trust.

VOICE: They go to their local bodega.

VOICE: Is there one that's real and one that's effective?

VOICE: What I would say, as any immigrant knows, having been born in Uganda and then raised in South Africa and then moving here when I'm seven years old. They're different parts of my life.

VOICE: What do I choose? What do I choose?

VOICE: Mamdani was talking about a worldwide press tour, back when he was a rapper.

VOICE: Bring the flavor to the fish. Bring the flavor to the rice.

VOICE: In a Disney movie, directed by his mother.
(music)

VOICE: Nepotism and hard work, goes a long way.

GLENN: Goes a long way.

VOICE: Here in New York City, this is how I speak.

GLENN: Listen to this. This artwork goes a long way.

What the hell is that? What a phony this guy is. "A lot of artwork, it goes a long way. Mommy put me under her skirt when I was five."

What is that? Now, well, he's lived all over the world.

Well, I've lived all over the country, you know. I might say y'all once in a while. But I also might say you guys once in a while.

I say soda, and I also say pop.

Never soda pop, because that's just weird. But I say both of them.

But I never say it like this! Ever!

I mean, what -- what is the deal with the fake accents from the Democrats?

Why?

It's like they have -- I mean, I know they have no soul.

But it's like they have absolutely nothing real inside of them.

They're just like this shape. Oh!

They're shapeshifters. That's why.

They're actually lizard people who are shapeshifters.

Don't say that out loud.

Shh. It's just between us.

You me, and the other 11 million people.

That's just us.

Okay. Now, he also has made a big deal out of the holy land five.

And I want to get into that, when we come back. Because this one is really interesting.

Who are the holy land five?

Well, they're his dogs.

And I don't mean like he puts them on leashes. Hey. Who am I to say. That's not wrong to say, put people on leashes. Make them bark as dogs.

There's nothing wrong with that. You're perfectly normal.

They're his boys, the holy land five.

We will get into that from his great, great rap number called I don't know. Crappy crap.

I don't know what it was called.

It talks about the boys the holy land five. We will get to that in just a second.

First, let me tell you about holy earth.

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I am a sheet snob.

I really am.

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And I was like, oh, my gosh. What are these sheets made out of?

It's like cotton. But it's cotton that has 400 thread count. Or whatever the number is supposed to be.

And you're trying to buy those sheets.

Like, that's crazy. Crazy.

Cozy Earth makes really great sheets.

Cozy Earth, they make towels. They make lounge wear.

Which is material that is natural temperature-regulated. Breathable, soft.

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GLENN: So let me play some of this super, super classic rap from Mamdani. Here he is.

His little rap, called Salaam.
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GLENN: Yeah. I have no idea what he just said. But I'm like with all rap songs. So what he said was, me, Alamo Zohran, my love to the Holy Land Five. You better look them up.

All right. So we did a long time ago, but here to refresh our memory is Jason Buttrill. Jason, the Holy Land Five. Could you bring America back up to speed?

JASON: What's crazy is, unless you are in some way connected ideologically to this, there's no real reason why most people would have ever heard of the Holy Land Five or the Holy Land Foundation.

And I've been accused of throwing on a few tinfoil hats in my time.

But, I mean, this is pretty dang blatant on what his motivations are.

The guy behind the guy.

So just to -- like you said, refresh. The holy land five. This comes from a court case.

United States of America, versus the Holy Land Foundation.

So in a nutshell, this case revealed, for the very first time, an elaborate scheme, launched by the Muslim Brotherhood. To shift sentiment, pump.

GLENN: Hang on just a second.

Let me just -- for those who are keeping score, Muslim Brotherhood. Bad!

Okay. So I just want to speak down to -- or, I mean, just clarify to some people who may have voted last week.

I just want to keep score here.

Foundation bad. Muslim Brotherhood, worse!

Okay. Go ahead.

JASON: Yeah. We're going way back in the history books here. Muslim Brotherhood. I'll go even further.

They're the ones who created modern day Salafi-Jihadism. So modern day terrorists, like Osama Bin Laden, they all took reference from the grandfather of terrorism. His name is Asan Bannon (phonetic).

Anyway, this case was all about funneling money to the American organization. That would give sentiment. Cash. Everything. To funnel back to Hamas.

And kill Jews. And lead the things like October 7th.

So he's praising these guys, that got busted in this case.

And --

GLENN: Right.

Now, here's the bad thing. In Canada, the youth are now looking at the clerics of Iran with higher regard than they do, the United States of America.

This guy is going to do for Islam, what Barack Obama did for Marxism. Mark my word!