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The 5 most important things to WATCH FOR on Election Day 2024

The Daily Caller recently highlighted "5 key bellwethers to watch on Election Day" 2024: the early results in Pennsylvania, the margins in Virginia, how Muslims in Michigan vote, how suburban women vote, and how Trump does in Iowa. Glenn and Stu discuss just how close this election may be, despite the momentum for Trump. Plus, Glenn and Stu discuss the odds that this election will be a blowout and whether Stu's electoral map prediction will be as accurate as it was in 2020.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: It is Election Day. If you haven't voted, if somebody in your family hasn't voted, get them out to vote.

As long as they're -- you know, they've done their homework. There's always a moron in there.

No. Don't. You know what, you don't -- you shouldn't vote.

Now, there's -- according to the Daily Caller, five key bellwethers to watch on Election Day. I want to go over them with Stu.

Because Stu is the guy who watches all these numbers.

And yesterday, you predicted a Trump victory.


STU: Yeah. Very hesitant Trump victory.

I'm very undecided.

GLENN: You didn't do that in 2020.

STU: No. In fact, 2020 got the electoral count exactly right. 306 electoral votes for Joe Biden. And everyone hates you, when you say that.

GLENN: I know. I know.

STU: But, you know, I -- that's what I thought was going to happen.

It wound up coming true. But this time, I'm not nearly as sure. I don't have a really strong opinion. I got to the -- we did our show last night on Stu Does America. Our final predictions.

And it got to those swing states. And, you know, a couple of them I have a vibe on.

You know, a couple of them, I'm kind of just guessing. I hate to say it that way. But it's kind of where you are.

You're taking your vibes. You're kind of encapsulating 18 months of campaigning into a feeling. And I think a lot of people will do that today. I would not bet money on who will win.

She can win this election. But, also, there's a good chance that one of these two candidates, you know, sweeps all seven of these swing states, and winds up with what feels like an easy victory.

It won't be. You know, I don't think it will be an easy victory.

If you start seeing someone taking out states, those fringe swing states. You know, New Hampshire, Virginia for Trump.

You know, going the other way.

Texas for Kamala. Florida, for Kamala. Iowa for Kamala. If that stuff starts happening. That's a blowout.

These type of swing states. If they all go to one of the two candidates. I don't think it will be much of a blowout.

I am very, very undecided on it.

My final count was 291 electoral votes for Trump.

As I was putting it together, as a final prediction for the show. I reversed myself on two or three states, multiple times.

And that is not -- when you're doing that. You know.

I've been watching this obsessively for 18 months.

And on -- an hour before I go to the air, I am reversing states nap tells you that we don't know. Because I don't know.

GLENN: So here are the things.

And I would like to hear your point of view on this.

Are these the things you should watch for: Early returns for Pennsylvania. It is probably one of the most important states, likely a tipping point. You lose this one.

I mean, you could gain --

STU: You could do it. But it's hard. Especially for Trump.

Kamala needs it, you would think.

If Trump can get it, he's probably winning this election.

GLENN: Right. This is why Kamala was out knocking doors last night. Quote, unquote.

Knocking doors. Somebody else was knocking the door. Kamala supporter.

STU: Oh, the part where, hey, Kamala. Kamala goes -- they won't to film you coming out. We go back in, and I can knock on the door again?

The fact that that sort of stuff is happening. What a perfect last-minute encapsulation of the Kamala Harris campaign.

GLENN: Yeah. Just fake. All of it fake. So Pennsylvania.

80,000 votes in Pennsylvania, decided 2020. 90,000 Amish in Pennsylvania. Also, 80,000 truckers in Pennsylvania, that didn't really turn out last time because a lot of them were on the road.

The G.O.P. has been all over that. Make sure they have -- you know, ballots, mail-in ballots.

Also, just this weekend on the other side, the Harris campaign knocked on almost a million doors.

$807,000 doors were knocked.

In 2020, in Pennsylvania, Democrats had the advantage of more than 1.1 million mail-in ballots.
They knew, a couple of weeks before, we are going to win.

Today, the Democrats only have an advantage of 400,000. That's a 700,000-vote swing. That they're down -- and that is good, if people show up today, to vote.

Virginia is also another one. Harris is probably another one that will win Virginia.

If Donald Trump picks up Virginia, that's a big deal. If he loses Virginia, under five points, that's also a big deal.

STU: Yeah. If he can keep it within five points, I think he's probably going to win the election.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. And we should bank that pretty early, shouldn't we?

STU: Yeah. Polls close relatively early. It's not one of those states that takes a month to count. Typically.

Again, Florida is the gold standard, which is shocking. They actually fixed their system. Theater ones that will give you the first result.

Florida is also not the best bellwether. We've seen this before. In 2022, was a big situation, if you remember correctly.

Because DeSantis won by so much. That everyone was like, oh, my gosh.

This is a Republican wave election. Because they were one of the first results.

And it did not wind up panning out in other states. Sometimes Florida is a little bit different. And since they're the first kind of like big state, we hear about --

GLENN: Yeah.

If it goes poorly, Florida, for Donald Trump, it will be a bad night.

STU: Well, the polling is interesting there, Glenn.

GLENN: I know.

STU: Because we kind of thought now, that because of what DeSantis has done in Florida, that this is just a bright red state.

Look, Rick Scott is up by three points in Florida in a lot of these polls.

Donald Trump is up by four or five points in some polls in Florida.

I think he is going to win. But it will be a heck of a lot closer than DeSantis when he won by, what was it? Nineteen.

GLENN: Yeah. I have to tell you, the other thing that is disturbing.

The Cruz campaign called us to get him on the air today.

They are concerned about Texas. And you should be concerned about Texas.

It is close. It is very close.

They have spent millions and millions and millions of dollars. And Ted Cruz has done it all on his supporters and himself.

The -- they've been outspent like crazy, because of Mitch McConnell.


STU: Yeah. And George Soros.

GLENN: And George Soros. Yes.

STU: McConnell not giving money to Cruz is a factor.

But Democrats are targeting this with hundreds of millions of dollars.

GLENN: So another thing to watch for is the Muslims in Michigan.

If they don't show up. Or they're voting third person. Or they're not voting for Trump, which I find that hard to believe. But you had the mayor of the biggest Muslim community in Michigan come out and endorse. Along with a lot of the imams, endorse Donald Trump. I find it hard to believe.

STU: Yeah. If Trump will be like, hey, we will win this election.

If we get the Muslim vote, I think he's -- you know, probably -- that's not the position you want to be in.

GLENN: No. But --

STU: He'll take them. He'll take 10 percent. Take it.

STU: Yeah. For sure. For sure.

GLENN: The pitch to suburban women.

Now, this goes down to Iowa.

I think if he loses Iowa, it's -- it's going -- it could be a rough night.

He's not counted out.

STU: He's not mathematically eliminated.

But if he loses Iowa, there's no way he's winning this election.

GLENN: You don't think so?

STU: I don't think so. That doesn't mean mathematically he can't win. He definitely theoretically could win. In an environment where they lose the state, again, this makes no sense to me.

Kim Reynolds won that state by 19 points, two years ago, in a bad year for Republicans. We've seen increases all over the place, in Republican registration.

That's not -- I'm -- as I mentioned to you off the air. I'm super skeptical of trying to take anything out of early vote.

Particularly this year. When you're comparing early vote to the COVID year, God only knows what you're getting.

I'm not surprised at all, that Democrat's early vote numbers were down. They were all terrified. They wouldn't go outdoors at the time that this election was taking place.

GLENN: I know. But you are -- people are motivated, or not.

STU: I agree.

GLENN: And I don't think -- I think where the hidden number is, in these polls, is the lack of motivation for Harris.

People will talk a good game.

I'm for Harris.

STU: And some even show her enthusiasm higher than Trump's, which doesn't make any sense to me.

GLENN: No way.

STU: That's even shown in some polls.

GLENN: No way. No way.

STU: Look, we all that know it's not Kamala enthusiasm.

The correct way to look at it is anti-Trump enthusiasm.

That sort of does connect with me.

I do sort of see Democrats feel that way.

Not that I do. But I'm saying, as far as they do.

We know they hate him.

We got it. They're really wanting to keep Hitler out of office. We've got it.

GLENN: They're hypnotized.

STU: When comes to early voting, though. The numbers coming up for Republicans.

I think it can be partially explained by the fact that Trump discouraged the early vote in 2020, and now he's encouraging it. So I'm not surprised to see those numbers come up.

And I'm not surprised to see them come down for Democrats. Because in 2020, there was COVID. And they were all afraid to go to restaurants, let alone, go out to vote.

So I'm not at all surprised by that. I'm not saying that that means bad things.

Obviously, I predicted Trump to win.

PAT: But here's what the Republicans are counting on.

STU: Uh-huh.

GLENN: In the polls for people who are planning on voting today, he is up by 16 points.

If that would hold, it -- it would be hard for the Democrats to pull this off.

You disagree with that?

STU: You may be right. Just, I don't have a spreadsheet out to make a prediction out like that.

I have not -- I don't know.

It's possible, you're right.

I don't know. There's so many factors that go into this. And the other part of it, that we don't know at all.

From early voting.

One important thing. We have no idea, who any independents voted for.

We have no idea who anyone voted for.

But we assume the Republicans vote for the Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats.

Independents, we have no indication, whatsoever.

Right? We have no indication from early vote what independents did. So in an election that is this close, kind of an important nugget of information.

GLENN: I know. I know.

You're basing it all on numbers, facts, and figures. I'm basing it all on gut.

And we've lost the ability to predict the American people, long ago!

But, you know, I'll explain it at the top of next hour. Why I feel as strong as I do.

With the one caveat. I don't know if I can predict the American people anymore.

I don't know.

I mean, our education system has turned out morons and idiots. That don't even know what it means, to be a republic, versus a democracy.

So nobody knows our institutions.

Nobody knows why this was founded this way.

So maybe they don't get it.

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The ONLY Trump/Epstein Files Theories That Make Sense | Glenn TV | Ep 445

Is the case closed on Jeffrey Epstein and Russiagate? Maybe not. Glenn Beck pulls the thread on the story and its far-reaching implications that could expose a web of scandals and lead to a complete implosion of trust. Glenn lays out five theories that could explain Trump’s frustration over the Epstein files and why Glenn may never talk about the Epstein case again. Plus, Glenn connects the dots between the Russiagate hoax, the Hunter Biden laptop cover-up, and the Steele dossier related to the FBI’s new “grand conspiracy” probe. It all leads to one James Bond-like villain: former CIA Director John Brennan. Then, Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA operations officer, tells Glenn why he believes his former boss Brennan belongs in prison and what must happen to prevent a full-blown trust implosion in American institutions.

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Rumors explained: Is Fed Chair Jerome Powell OUT?!

After rumors spread that President Trump would soon fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Trump has said that he's "not planning" on it right now. But is it possible for Trump to fire him? Will he resign? And how is the Fed Chair even chosen in the first place? Glenn and his head researcher Jason Buttrill explain ...

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Well, last night, I was rapidly looking the lie some of these rumors, on X.

Pretty incredible people on what's going on with Jerome Powell and the fed.

What the heck?

I was actually popping popcorn and watching this. It was so crazy.

GLENN: So it's just the rumors, that he is going to be stepping down?

JASON: Well, yeah.

Yeah. Anna Paulina Luna. Congresswoman. She was saying, it was almost imminent, that he was about to be fired. Actually fired.

There were other rumors saying, well, we're not sure about fired.

But he's considering resigning.

GLENN: Yeah. You know why.

JASON: We were like, what the heck is going on?

GLENN: So do you know why?

Do you know why he's resigning? Any guesses? I mean, you had popcorn out. I would love to hear what you have come up with.

JASON: So there was the CPI stuff coming out. The interest rates going up.

We know that the President wants interest rates to come down. I'm assuming that is what the deal is, and there's some sort of internal battle going on.

GLENN: Well, and the president can't fire the Fed chief. Okay?

So the Fed chief is the one that nominated. The federal reserve is the biggest crock of bullcrap I've ever seen in my life.

It's nothing, but the five biggest banks. Okay? And you know which ones they are. They're the ones that keep getting bigger. And everybody else is falling to the wayside.

So the Federal Reserve is the arm of those five banks.

Okay?

And they suggest, who the president can select from.

So the president can't say, I don't want any of these guys. I want this guy. Can't do it.

He has to take a look at the list that all the banks have put together. Is. Say, pick from this list, Mr. President.

Did you know that?

JASON: It's kind of how Iran chooses their next president.

GLENN: It's exactly. It's exactly that way. Except, this religion is all about the almighty dollar.

Okay. So he can't -- he can't pick on his own. But the president has a right to pick one, you know, every term. If it comes up in his term.

The president wants this guy out. And I think he's been really, really bad.

Because he's been wrong on almost -- on almost everything. But show me the -- show me the Fed, you know, the guy who the Fed was right ever.

So he can't fire him. But he wants him out. Because he wants interest rates dropped.

And, you know, the jobs are coming back. Things are coming back.

But interest rates keep coming up.

And the -- and the interest rates, if we keep our interest rates high, we have a harder time borrowing money for our debt.

And it just gets more and more expensive for everybody all along. So the president wants him to back off interest rates. But the Fed chief believes that that could cause more inflation.

Which I think he's right on that one. And I hate to say he was right on anything.

Because I don't think he was ever right.

Makes me question myself. When he's like, well, I think he might have a point on that one. But the president is like, no. He can handle it.

I want them down. I want cheap money again.

He refuses. So what has the president done?

The president can only fire him, with cause!

So what do you do when you can only fire somebody with cause, and you want them out.

You find a cause, and this one is easy.

So the Fed has been the one leading the way saying, we can't keep borrowing money.

We've got to have some fiscal sanity. Right?

This is going to kill us. We have to keep these interest rates high, because you are borrowing too much money. And maybe this is the only way to stop you.

So we got to keep it high, because you've borrowed too much money. And how many times has he testified in front of Congress? We've got to cut. We've got to cut. You can't keep spending like this.

Okay? Well, did you know that the Federal Reserve, with our tax dollars, the five biggest banks, a/k/a the Federal Reserve, is redoing their offices. To the tune of two billion dollars!

Now, I don't know what kind of wallpaper they need there.

But that seems like a pretty hefty renovation, especially when everybody is looking at cutting things. And you're lecturing me about spending money. So they get money from the government, okay? They're telling us, stop spending.
Stop borrowing.

Except, okay. What you've borrowed. I need $2 billion of that, to redo our offices in Washington, DC.

Excuse me?

Why don't you do that yourself. Okay. I think banks maybe have some money.

So they're borrowing that money, and there's $700 million over.

So it's $2 billion. $700 million over budget. And they're still not finished.

And the problem is: They're putting in water features.

They have a rooftop garden they're building.

JASON: Okay.

GLENN: I mean, it is -- it's insane. The president now knows, really? You want to play this game with me. I will sit your ass down in front of Congress, and you answer to the American people, how you're lecturing us about spending. And you're putting in a rooftop garden and a water feature in your office. No! No.

So the president is now threatening, I'll fire you for this. You want to quit, now would be the time to quit.

Otherwise, I'm dragging your butt in front of Congress.

You answer to the American people for this. And they will beg me to fire you.

That's what's happening.

JASON: I looked at that a lot.

Because I was like. There's got to be some leverage that the president had, because they can't get rid of.

But that is a pretty big cut. That sounds like a Babylon Bee article. $2 billion.

GLENN: It does. It does. $2 billion, 700 million over budget.

JASON: Oh, my gosh.

GLENN: I mean, and these are the responsible bankers. No, I don't think so.

It just shows, they don't mean what they say. They'll just keep doing it for themselves. You know, if you really believed that America was really on that financial cliff, why would you do that?

You would lead the way and say, guys, we are going to be the only responsible ones here.

We will lead by example.

No renovation. You know what, go to IKEA?

You need a new desk. Go to IKEA, and get a new desk. Well, we have to keep up our image. We're not going to have a country.

So what do you say, we go to IKEA?

Our image should be, we are going to lead the way out of this madness!

That's what a leader would do.

JASON: So, Glenn, I still don't think I get this disconnect between Trump and Powell on -- we know Trump wants to lower interest rates.

Powell is standing back and saying, basically, he doesn't want to do it.

Is he trying to undermine President Trump on this?

GLENN: President Trump thinks so. President Trump thinks so.

I think so, to some degree.

I mean, I'm worried about inflation.

Look, you know what happened. Do you know what's happening with yap?

JASON: What's happening with Japan?

GLENN: So what's happening with Japan, is Japan has always had this really amazing image of, we're solid. We're absolutely solid.

This is target to crack. The foundation.

1989.

Let me go back to 1989.

This was the crown jury trial of the global economy.

Back in 1989, you probably aren't old enough to remember.

All of a sudden, Japan owned everything in America. We were just becoming Japanese, and everything was being purchased by Japan. Kind of like it feels a little bit like China now.

JASON: They even owned Nakatomi Plaza, Glenn, that Bruce Willis had to save -- they owned everything in every '80s movie!

GLENN: Oh, yeah, they owned absolutely everything.

Okay? And the -- things were so insane in Japan. The grounds of the imperial palace, in Tokyo, on paper was worth more than the entire value of the state of California.


JASON: Wow!

GLENN: Okay?

So their land. Everything just shot up. And so they had all of -- they were flush with all this cash.

And people believed that Japan had suddenly, you know, cracked the formula for, you know, eternal prosperity.

That's the problem. Then it all started to fall apart. And the asset prices. That they had mortgaged against.

Okay?

They had borrowed. Well, the imperial palace was worth more than California.

That doesn't make any sense. You wouldn't mortgage it like that. At least long-term. I will do this real quick, and pay it off.

You would never, ever mortgage, because you know that's inane. Well, nobody ever wanted -- and it seems in governments, nobody ever wants to believe that this is just a fluke. Okay?

So the asset prices collapse. The stock markets plunged. And for three decades, they have gone into this very polite political coma.

Okay? Economic coma. And so the central bank did something radical. They were the first ones to set your interest rate at zero. They lowered the interest rate. They made money so cheap, it was nearly free. Zero percent interest. Sometimes, they would pay you to take out money.

So the -- they had negative interest rates. Can you imagine that? Now, you're not fixing the problem. You're just printing wallpaper to cover the mold. All right?

So they've done this for decades.

Now their debt is I think 260. Or 280 percent of their GDP.

I think, what is ours?

100?

80 percent.

Something crazy. 120. You never believe back.

The death threshold is usually 120, 140.

They're 260 percent of their entire economy is debt.

That's not a crack. That's a fault line.

So this week. Or was it last week? Things started to creek and grown in Japan.

And the government bonds, which are like our treasuries. Is this getting too complex.

Are you following this still?

JASON: Yeah.

GLENN: Okay. So their government bonds.

They were the safest investments on earth.

One of them. Okay?

It's us. Japan, Germany.

They started to fall.

Hard. And when bond prices fall, interest rates were the easily go up.

All right?

So they borrow all this money.

260 percent of their GDP is borrowed. Okay?

So they borrowed all of that money. And they had it at like 3 percent interest. Whatever.

2 percent interest.

And they were paying people.

2 percent.

Well, all of a sudden, the cracks started to appear. And people were like, I'm not sure this is stable at all.

And then the belief of the system started to -- to go away. So people started selling their Japanese bonds.

Once they do that, now the yields have to go up.

What happens when yields go up?

What happens when interest rates go up? For a government. You have to pay more interest on your debt!

Okay?

You add two or three points.

Just imagine, you have an adjustable rate. Okay?

This is a government having an adjustable rate. Except, they have 260 percent of everything they make, in debt!

And it's all leveraged.

And now, their adjustable goes up two, three, four points.

You're not able to afford that anymore, okay?

So massive problem.

Because what it really means is. People don't believe in Japan.

They know the con game is now over.

And investors are saying, you know, I want a whole lot more in return.

Because I just don't believe you anymore.

And it's not just Japan's problem. This is not a neighbor's house on fair.

This is -- imagine we're all living under the same roof. This is the neighbor's apartment, on fire.

We're all under the same roof. We all have the same foundation. And so when this happens to Japan, you should pay attention. And I'll show you the ripple effects in just a second.

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GLENN: Okay. So now if Japan -- that means there's a stampede out of Japan.

And people are starting to look and reprice the risk of their money.

Now they're like, wait a minute.

The most stable. You know, if you're driving a car and it is the safest car in the world and all of a sudden, they just start blowing up on the highway.

You're like, I don't think that's the most -- that's the safest car on the highway.

And if that's the safest car, what does it mean for the car I'm in?

You know what I mean? So now, this is going to push US interest rates going up.

Which makes our mortgage rates go can up. And our car loans more expensive. And the national debt. Which is already costing us $1.2 trillion a year, just in interest.

Now, they can't sell their treasuries. People are skittish on treasuries. Maybe they come to the United States, but they're not so far.

They're getting out of the Japanese interest. Or the bonds there.

Japan has to pay their bills.

What do you do when you have to pay a bill?

And you don't have any money coming in.

You don't have enough money coming in. What do you do?

You sell something. Right? You sell your car. You sell something that you have of value.

Well, what do they have? What do they hold of value? US Treasuries.

So now, we are trying to sell our bonds, for our new debt, they hold our old debt.

They're saying, hey. Anybody want to buy this debt? Because I have to sell it. Fire sale. What do you give me for it?

Okay?

Which makes that debt more attractive, because they can get a better deal there.

Which means, if we want to have new debt, we have to raise our interest rates. Which means, we pay more for interest for our mortgages and everything else.

And it floods the market with bonds, crushing the prices, skyrocketing the costs for us.
And causing even more trouble, in other countries, that have US bonds. Because they start to look and go, nobody is buying these bonds.

Well, of course not. You have two countries. The two stablest countries besides Germany.

You have the two stablest countries now selling US Treasury bonds.

Okay? Really, really bad.

Now, let me add this on.

Germany is now having to pay for their own army.

And so they said, they're going to borrow money.

To build the army.

And they're going to lower their interest rate. So they can borrow more money. All right?

And now, the German bund, which is -- you know, like our Treasury. That's now starting to fall apart.

Well, Germany has some assets, they can sell.

What do you think that asset might be that they want to sell?

US treasuries.

We have been playing an extraordinarily horrible game.

This is why I believe the president wants somebody else in charge of the Fed, because the Fed can say, we're lowering the interest rates.

Because he's got to get more money into the system. So people can spend money, can start businesses. Borrow money.

Get things moving, so we can increase the amount of taxes that we collect.

The more people money -- the more people make, the more taxes we collect.

So he's like, we've got to grow the economy. And the only way we can grow the economy is to lower the interest rates.

But at the same time, interest rates around the world because of what's happening with the bonds is going through the roof.

We are in a very -- we've never been in this position before.

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Why the Term "Conspiracy Theory" is CIA-Created Weapon for Control

Conspiracies are of course real and occur every single day. But yet, many in the media and elite political circles attempt to use the term "conspiracy theory" to smear and discredit those who are skeptical of conventional narratives. Where did this term come from and how should we understand it? Journalist Alex Newman joins Glenn Beck to break this down and how it impacts the world as we see it today.

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Watch the FULL Episode HERE: Deep State ON NOTICE: New Tech Traces the USAID, Globalist Money Trail