RADIO

The 5 most important things to WATCH FOR on Election Day 2024

The Daily Caller recently highlighted "5 key bellwethers to watch on Election Day" 2024: the early results in Pennsylvania, the margins in Virginia, how Muslims in Michigan vote, how suburban women vote, and how Trump does in Iowa. Glenn and Stu discuss just how close this election may be, despite the momentum for Trump. Plus, Glenn and Stu discuss the odds that this election will be a blowout and whether Stu's electoral map prediction will be as accurate as it was in 2020.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: It is Election Day. If you haven't voted, if somebody in your family hasn't voted, get them out to vote.

As long as they're -- you know, they've done their homework. There's always a moron in there.

No. Don't. You know what, you don't -- you shouldn't vote.

Now, there's -- according to the Daily Caller, five key bellwethers to watch on Election Day. I want to go over them with Stu.

Because Stu is the guy who watches all these numbers.

And yesterday, you predicted a Trump victory.


STU: Yeah. Very hesitant Trump victory.

I'm very undecided.

GLENN: You didn't do that in 2020.

STU: No. In fact, 2020 got the electoral count exactly right. 306 electoral votes for Joe Biden. And everyone hates you, when you say that.

GLENN: I know. I know.

STU: But, you know, I -- that's what I thought was going to happen.

It wound up coming true. But this time, I'm not nearly as sure. I don't have a really strong opinion. I got to the -- we did our show last night on Stu Does America. Our final predictions.

And it got to those swing states. And, you know, a couple of them I have a vibe on.

You know, a couple of them, I'm kind of just guessing. I hate to say it that way. But it's kind of where you are.

You're taking your vibes. You're kind of encapsulating 18 months of campaigning into a feeling. And I think a lot of people will do that today. I would not bet money on who will win.

She can win this election. But, also, there's a good chance that one of these two candidates, you know, sweeps all seven of these swing states, and winds up with what feels like an easy victory.

It won't be. You know, I don't think it will be an easy victory.

If you start seeing someone taking out states, those fringe swing states. You know, New Hampshire, Virginia for Trump.

You know, going the other way.

Texas for Kamala. Florida, for Kamala. Iowa for Kamala. If that stuff starts happening. That's a blowout.

These type of swing states. If they all go to one of the two candidates. I don't think it will be much of a blowout.

I am very, very undecided on it.

My final count was 291 electoral votes for Trump.

As I was putting it together, as a final prediction for the show. I reversed myself on two or three states, multiple times.

And that is not -- when you're doing that. You know.

I've been watching this obsessively for 18 months.

And on -- an hour before I go to the air, I am reversing states nap tells you that we don't know. Because I don't know.

GLENN: So here are the things.

And I would like to hear your point of view on this.

Are these the things you should watch for: Early returns for Pennsylvania. It is probably one of the most important states, likely a tipping point. You lose this one.

I mean, you could gain --

STU: You could do it. But it's hard. Especially for Trump.

Kamala needs it, you would think.

If Trump can get it, he's probably winning this election.

GLENN: Right. This is why Kamala was out knocking doors last night. Quote, unquote.

Knocking doors. Somebody else was knocking the door. Kamala supporter.

STU: Oh, the part where, hey, Kamala. Kamala goes -- they won't to film you coming out. We go back in, and I can knock on the door again?

The fact that that sort of stuff is happening. What a perfect last-minute encapsulation of the Kamala Harris campaign.

GLENN: Yeah. Just fake. All of it fake. So Pennsylvania.

80,000 votes in Pennsylvania, decided 2020. 90,000 Amish in Pennsylvania. Also, 80,000 truckers in Pennsylvania, that didn't really turn out last time because a lot of them were on the road.

The G.O.P. has been all over that. Make sure they have -- you know, ballots, mail-in ballots.

Also, just this weekend on the other side, the Harris campaign knocked on almost a million doors.

$807,000 doors were knocked.

In 2020, in Pennsylvania, Democrats had the advantage of more than 1.1 million mail-in ballots.
They knew, a couple of weeks before, we are going to win.

Today, the Democrats only have an advantage of 400,000. That's a 700,000-vote swing. That they're down -- and that is good, if people show up today, to vote.

Virginia is also another one. Harris is probably another one that will win Virginia.

If Donald Trump picks up Virginia, that's a big deal. If he loses Virginia, under five points, that's also a big deal.

STU: Yeah. If he can keep it within five points, I think he's probably going to win the election.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. And we should bank that pretty early, shouldn't we?

STU: Yeah. Polls close relatively early. It's not one of those states that takes a month to count. Typically.

Again, Florida is the gold standard, which is shocking. They actually fixed their system. Theater ones that will give you the first result.

Florida is also not the best bellwether. We've seen this before. In 2022, was a big situation, if you remember correctly.

Because DeSantis won by so much. That everyone was like, oh, my gosh.

This is a Republican wave election. Because they were one of the first results.

And it did not wind up panning out in other states. Sometimes Florida is a little bit different. And since they're the first kind of like big state, we hear about --

GLENN: Yeah.

If it goes poorly, Florida, for Donald Trump, it will be a bad night.

STU: Well, the polling is interesting there, Glenn.

GLENN: I know.

STU: Because we kind of thought now, that because of what DeSantis has done in Florida, that this is just a bright red state.

Look, Rick Scott is up by three points in Florida in a lot of these polls.

Donald Trump is up by four or five points in some polls in Florida.

I think he is going to win. But it will be a heck of a lot closer than DeSantis when he won by, what was it? Nineteen.

GLENN: Yeah. I have to tell you, the other thing that is disturbing.

The Cruz campaign called us to get him on the air today.

They are concerned about Texas. And you should be concerned about Texas.

It is close. It is very close.

They have spent millions and millions and millions of dollars. And Ted Cruz has done it all on his supporters and himself.

The -- they've been outspent like crazy, because of Mitch McConnell.


STU: Yeah. And George Soros.

GLENN: And George Soros. Yes.

STU: McConnell not giving money to Cruz is a factor.

But Democrats are targeting this with hundreds of millions of dollars.

GLENN: So another thing to watch for is the Muslims in Michigan.

If they don't show up. Or they're voting third person. Or they're not voting for Trump, which I find that hard to believe. But you had the mayor of the biggest Muslim community in Michigan come out and endorse. Along with a lot of the imams, endorse Donald Trump. I find it hard to believe.

STU: Yeah. If Trump will be like, hey, we will win this election.

If we get the Muslim vote, I think he's -- you know, probably -- that's not the position you want to be in.

GLENN: No. But --

STU: He'll take them. He'll take 10 percent. Take it.

STU: Yeah. For sure. For sure.

GLENN: The pitch to suburban women.

Now, this goes down to Iowa.

I think if he loses Iowa, it's -- it's going -- it could be a rough night.

He's not counted out.

STU: He's not mathematically eliminated.

But if he loses Iowa, there's no way he's winning this election.

GLENN: You don't think so?

STU: I don't think so. That doesn't mean mathematically he can't win. He definitely theoretically could win. In an environment where they lose the state, again, this makes no sense to me.

Kim Reynolds won that state by 19 points, two years ago, in a bad year for Republicans. We've seen increases all over the place, in Republican registration.

That's not -- I'm -- as I mentioned to you off the air. I'm super skeptical of trying to take anything out of early vote.

Particularly this year. When you're comparing early vote to the COVID year, God only knows what you're getting.

I'm not surprised at all, that Democrat's early vote numbers were down. They were all terrified. They wouldn't go outdoors at the time that this election was taking place.

GLENN: I know. But you are -- people are motivated, or not.

STU: I agree.

GLENN: And I don't think -- I think where the hidden number is, in these polls, is the lack of motivation for Harris.

People will talk a good game.

I'm for Harris.

STU: And some even show her enthusiasm higher than Trump's, which doesn't make any sense to me.

GLENN: No way.

STU: That's even shown in some polls.

GLENN: No way. No way.

STU: Look, we all that know it's not Kamala enthusiasm.

The correct way to look at it is anti-Trump enthusiasm.

That sort of does connect with me.

I do sort of see Democrats feel that way.

Not that I do. But I'm saying, as far as they do.

We know they hate him.

We got it. They're really wanting to keep Hitler out of office. We've got it.

GLENN: They're hypnotized.

STU: When comes to early voting, though. The numbers coming up for Republicans.

I think it can be partially explained by the fact that Trump discouraged the early vote in 2020, and now he's encouraging it. So I'm not surprised to see those numbers come up.

And I'm not surprised to see them come down for Democrats. Because in 2020, there was COVID. And they were all afraid to go to restaurants, let alone, go out to vote.

So I'm not at all surprised by that. I'm not saying that that means bad things.

Obviously, I predicted Trump to win.

PAT: But here's what the Republicans are counting on.

STU: Uh-huh.

GLENN: In the polls for people who are planning on voting today, he is up by 16 points.

If that would hold, it -- it would be hard for the Democrats to pull this off.

You disagree with that?

STU: You may be right. Just, I don't have a spreadsheet out to make a prediction out like that.

I have not -- I don't know.

It's possible, you're right.

I don't know. There's so many factors that go into this. And the other part of it, that we don't know at all.

From early voting.

One important thing. We have no idea, who any independents voted for.

We have no idea who anyone voted for.

But we assume the Republicans vote for the Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats.

Independents, we have no indication, whatsoever.

Right? We have no indication from early vote what independents did. So in an election that is this close, kind of an important nugget of information.

GLENN: I know. I know.

You're basing it all on numbers, facts, and figures. I'm basing it all on gut.

And we've lost the ability to predict the American people, long ago!

But, you know, I'll explain it at the top of next hour. Why I feel as strong as I do.

With the one caveat. I don't know if I can predict the American people anymore.

I don't know.

I mean, our education system has turned out morons and idiots. That don't even know what it means, to be a republic, versus a democracy.

So nobody knows our institutions.

Nobody knows why this was founded this way.

So maybe they don't get it.

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Watch this FULL episode of Glenn TV HERE.

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RADIO

Former Sniper WARNS Major “Instability” May Hit This Summer

Former U.S. Army Special Forces Sniper Tim Kennedy joins Glenn to warn that “real instability” is coming across many parts of the world, including the Middle East, Haiti, Congo, and other parts of Africa. And one of the main signs of this is “the killing of Christians” at high levels in those regions. With a civil war brewing in Afghanistan, “genocide” level attacks in regions of Africa, and more trouble on the horizon, predictive models have found that things could very likely boil over soon. But Kennedy details how the Trump administration, especially Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, and Pam Bondi, are working overtime to “get ahead of what we know is coming” and keep Americans safe.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: We're talking to Tim Kennedy. Talking to the president about the border, and what's going on with the border this week. And I said, you know, if I were, you know, a Mexican citizen. And knowing that my government was in bed with the cartels. I would be hoping that some special forces just showed up in the middle of the night. And started killing people. In these cartels. And I said, well, that would be news breaking if I said that was a good idea.

You know, I hope it doesn't come to that. It was clear, that that is on the table. I mean, that really has to happen. Does it not?

I mean, that is a collapsed narco state in Mexico. Isn't it?

MATT: Yeah, we -- the rules of war that we'll be experiencing for the next five to ten years are not the traditional maneuver warfare that people remember from Korea and from Vietnam, and from even -- you know, we know who our enemy is. These are going to be businesses.

These are syndicated criminal organizations, that do not fight fair, and the cartel owns both the businesses, the corporations, and the criminal networks that are involved in that.

So, yes. It's absolutely on the table. And a group of people that are sitting on like the go button, are absolute savages, Mr. Beck.

GLENN: They are. I know some of them. I know some of them.

And they're just like -- and they're just -- they're just champing at the bit to go, I know. I know.

TIM: That's the truth.

We're in conversation with the cartels right now. And the cartels are saying, hey, we don't want to die. We don't want to be wiped off the face of the planet, which we know is not going to happen. So, you know, are there other options. Hey, what if we stopped human trafficking?

What if we stopped fentanyl production entirely?

What if -- what if all of that just goes away. What if we stop and seal the border on the south side. What are you -- will we maybe be allowed to transport some cocaine and some marijuana?

I'm totally fine with this. If we stop fentanyl. Human trafficking. Gun smuggling. And we stop the invasion of our border, I'll -- and we don't have to do a while bunch of killing.

You know, whatever.

But they know they're on the brink of --

GLENN: I hope they do.

TIM: Of existence.

GLENN: I hope they do.

You know, when you look at what's happening here.

And what they're bringing over here.

I mean, it has to stop, dead in its tracks.

It has to stop.

And it has to stop soon. The president is dealing with these courts. Which I just think is judicial insurrection as Mike Lee puts it. And it has to stop.

The president has to protect our borders, and has to protect our cities. This is -- you know, this is the opium wars, done to China by the English.

You know, 200 years ago. 150 years ago. And now they're doing it to us.

That's what -- that's what is happening.

TIM: Yeah.

GLENN: Tell me about the Christians and genocide, that you believe is on the horizon.

TIM: Just yesterday.

Back at the White House yesterday.

Listening to some brief about -- there's some brilliant companies that are able to do predictive modeling.

Using literally every public and classified source of information.

And there's these events that are pretty predictable.

You know, they predicted what would happen in Afghanistan. Predicted what would happen in Ukraine.

They see regionally that on the very near horizon, as soon as like late summer.

We are going to see real instability throughout CENTCOM and the Endo-Pacific region.
And some of those things -- some of the catalysts that are -- the data points are what are the killing of Christians.

And it's happening all over CENTCOM.

And --

GLENN: Explain CENTCOM. Explain CENTCOM for anybody who doesn't what CENTCOM means. Explain that.

TIM: Just imagine the Middle East starting kind of in north Africa.

And western Asia. And everything that has lots of deserts. And lots of Muslim countries -- just -- by coincidence, there's also Israel. That's in CENTCOM.

One of the few non-Muslim democracies, in that whole entire region.

Ask, you know, the Houthis and Hamas. And Hezbollah.

And then in former countries, like in Syria and Iraq, Afghanistan, those places, it's just a massacre of Christians, right now.

GLENN: So let me take a one-minute break.

Come back, because I want to talk to you more about that. Because you've been involved. We've been with you with Mercury One, and trying to help. And I know what we're gearing up for.

And I want to see if there's anything that you need and you would recommend, besides told prayers for Christians.

And I want to go deeper into what this predictive model is showing in just a second.

First, let me tell you about Preborn.

You know, if you were in the room with a woman who was thinking about giving up her baby.

What would you say?

If a scared young woman looked you in the eye and said, I don't think I could do this.

I'm alone. I don't know if it's really a baby yet.

What would you do?

Would you yell at her? Would you say, you can't do that! You'll go to hell.

Or would you tell her, you're strong enough. You are. Show her pictures of your kids maybe. Talk about miracles?

Talk about God? Talk about anything?

Anything. We're here for you. Would you just wait.

None of us would show her pictures of an aborted baby. None of us would yell at her.

Okay? The truth is, we'll never be in that room. Most of us. But Preborn will not be in that room. They don't argue or shame.

They do something really simple. It turns out, it's very persuasive. Just offer her a free ultrasound. And when she hears that tiny heartbeat. When she sees the image on the screen, everything changes. More than half the time the mom chooses life, the rest of the time, she's like, I -- I just -- I'm alone. I can't afford.

And that's where they come in, after that. They take care of mom. This saves two lives. This saves the life of torture for that woman, and the baby's life.

Please, donate your best gift today.

Go to #250. Say the key word baby for Preborn. It's #250. Key word baby. You know, just a few bucks pays for an ultrasound, and it just changes lives. Saves lives. Preborn.com/Beck. Sponsored by he Preborn. Preborn.com/Beck. Ten-second station ID.
(music)

GLENN: So, Tim, maybe we'll have you on -- we're doing a big benefit for the Nazarene Fund.

This fall.

I don't even have details on it. I just heard about it yesterday.

What that is, we go and rescue Christians. Or we pay and help people like you, go rescue Christians.

We just empower people like you, to help.

I would love to invite to that. When we get closer, I will.

Tell me about this predictive model. Why is it saying that it's going to get so bad? What's coming our way?

TIM: Yeah.

The Nazarene Fund, and Mercury One, just for -- love you guys.

I don't -- you know, we publicly can't say a lot of the things that we do at save our allies.

But none of it is possible without you, quite frankly.

Like if you look at me, and our team in Afghanistan. Or in Ukraine. Providing humanitarian aid. And pulling people out of the war zones.

Although to the Far East, as far as I possibly can get in far Russia.

Every place that we have been, has been because of you, quite frankly. Mr. Beck.

GLENN: Please. Stop calling me Mr. Beck.

Give credit. This audience is so gracious. They are so gracious.

TIM: Yeah. They just have an understanding.

Samaritan purse. Mercury One. Nazarene Fund.

We see you guys every single place, in the worst, most dire condition. So, you know, Glenn, thank you so much.

To your question, you know, we are -- if you just look in the past month, you know, you can look to Syria. You can look to the -- next to our bill.

You can look to the Congo.

Where you see thousands of Christians being killed.

You see Muslim converts, that were being specifically targeted. Down in Congo just last week.
Another 29 Christians were killed. In 2025, in like the region in Syria. There was like this region of violence. Another thousand were killed.

And so if you take -- if we're going to look for similar areas in the region, and try to predict the instability of a particular administration or government.

There's a whole bunch of -- and we can take historical data from the past 50 years. And start looking at, okay.

Economically, what is happening for instability?

What is happening culturally?

What is happening on -- in the markets?

What's happening in like -- really clear data points. And we have this bell curve of what's normal. And then you have these outliers that are -- that then keep occurring, every time there's a coup. Or every time there's genocide.

Or every time -- and there's enough data now, where we -- especially with AI. And we can scrape all of history.

We can then very accurately start, you know -- all the special operations side. I'm trying to find somebody in space and time.

It's -- that's -- used to be a difficult thing, to predict where a human is going to be.

So I could maybe bring them to justice, and if we look at the first 95 days of the president in office, and our intelligence community specifically, that told them they're going to work. With, you know, Kash Patel, enabling them. Pam Bondi.
45 Americans that have been illegally detained abroad brought home.

You know, we're knocking on the door of 100 radical terrorists, want to do harm to Americans. Dead.

And we are trying to get ahead of what we know is coming. Which is, complete near Civil War in Afghanistan.

Trying to get stability in Congo -- obviously, we see what's happening in Haiti.

And every time one of these places starts becoming less secure and stable, that is the breeding ground for radical adversarial groups, that are funded by our adversaries, like and mine Iran.

To then conduct attacks on Americans.

But they're not doing it direct.

It's like via proxy.

But Haiti, if we don't pay attention to it, China will use it.

Congo will --

GLENN: Yeah, I know.

TIM: And it just keeps happening.

GLENN: Tim, I can't thank you enough for what you do. You're really a remarkable man. It was such an honor to see you at the White House.

And as usual, see you at the White House and you're serving. Serving veterans.

So thank you for everything, Tim.

God bless you.

TIM: Yeah, you're amazing. Always in your corner. Let me know what you need.

GLENN: You've got it. Thank you, Tim Kennedy. US Army Special Forces. He's a sniper. Former UFC fighter, and really a servant to our vets.

Next year, it's going to be a tough year. All the way around us the world.

It's going to be very tough. What he's saying, is coming.

I -- you know, people say, I think Donald Trump will say for a reason, to save the republic. I'm not sure, that we understand God's mind.

It may have just been to postpone and give us more time to prepare. I'm not sure.

I hope we save the republic. But it might be time to prepare. Because things are very, very dicey in the world, and we just need to be prayerful.

Thoughtful. Jesus-like people.