The January 2024 jobs report has released and the media is touting it as great news. But average Americans know the truth: The economy is struggling. So, what’s going on here? Glenn dives into the real stats: Did Americans really get a raise? Were 353,000 jobs really added? Is unemployment really down? Or is it all just a massive government lie?
Transcript
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: I -- I want to talk to you about first the jobs report.
Last hour, we went into the -- the Senate bill, that you've got to call your senators. And tell them not to pass this.
I know it's dead on arrival, according to the Speaker of the House. But it can be passed in the Senate either. Don't let any of this slip through.
If you want some more information, we'll give you more information later on in the program.
But if you missed the first hour of the broadest, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts.
Today's podcast. We'll have all the information you need on that. Now, let me go back to Friday. Because there was something that came out last week. And everybody was saying, oh, my gosh. The jobs report, oh, America is working like nobody's business.
Stu, give me some of the headlines that you found over the weekend on this jobs report.
STU: Headlines. Yeah.
One of the big things you hear about -- that was incredibly great. It was wonderful. The economy was wonderful.
And this was sort of a peering into what we're seeing over the next eight or nine months.
GLENN: Correct.
STU: As we get closer to the election.
Let me give you the example to the New York Times yesterday.
Just listen to the framing of this. Why are Americans are wary, while the economy is healthy. Look at Nevada. Economic shocks over two decades. Combined with reliance on volatile casinos, have undermined confidence despite an economy that is bustling.
There's a couple of facts stated there, right?
GLENN: Yeah. That the economy is bustling. That's a fact.
STU: It is bustling. And it is healthy.
Now, why -- the question is not, what's going on with the economy. The question is, what's going on with people's minds. That indicates why they don't understand the economy is bustling. Why they don't understand the economy is healthy.
It's not a question about whether the economy is healthy or not.
GLENN: No, no, no. It is easy. This is why they're going after disinformation. Like the information I'm employing to give to you next.
They'll say this is disinformation. And you're studio stupid to understand that the economy is bustling. You will see these kinds of headlines all the way up to the election. Okay?
All the way up to the election.
They have to convince Americans, that it's just them.
All right. So let's look at this report. They reported last week, that in January, we unexpectedly added 353,000 jobs.
That's the most since January 23. When it was 482.
Double the -- the forecast of 185,000 jobs, last month, they say, we -- my gosh, it was 353.
And most people expected only 185,000 jobs that were created.
Okay?
Now. Let's look into it.
The average hourly earnings?
Spiked from 4.1, to 4.5.
That's the highest since last September.
They spiked.
Okay. Now, let's look at -- let's look at this for just a second.
Did people get a raise? Did the hourly earnings actually go up, because of actual wages?
No.
It's a trick.
It's a trap!
They actually rose because the Bureau of Labor Statistics, decided to slash the number of estimated hours that everybody was working.
They said, the hours went from 34.3, to 34.1.
Which may not sound like a lot.
But that's why your hourly looks like it's going up. Because they changed that one metric. Can. If that metric is true, the last time the workweek was this low, was when the economy was shut down, because of COVID!
Okay. So that doesn't sound healthy.
In January, the BLS conducted the annual re-benchmarking and update of seasonal adjustment factors.
Long story short here. What was until December, a decline in jobs, has now miraculously transformed into gains.
Consider this, before the revision, the average monthly job gain in 2021 was largely unchanged.
And while the average monthly gain in 2022 was revised lower, this was purposely goal seat, to make 2023 appear stronger.
And indeed, the average monthly increase in 2023, has been revised.
From 225,000 to 255.
Which would be great, which would be great, if only it wasn't for the almost entirely -- entirely due to the -- the latest choice of seasonal adjustments. Ready.
The Biden administration numbers are now clearly rising, even as the impartial ADP, which directly logs employment numbers, at the company level.
And is far more accurate. Because they're actually looking at the payroll.
It shows an accelerating slow down.
Seasonal adjustments.
The January print was all about seasonal. Because why are the seasonally adjusted payrolls was up 353,000?
The unadjusted was down 2.635 million.
That's 3 million jobs different. So here -- here's -- let me break it. 10 percent error rate. Just a 10 percent error rate in the seasonal adjustment. That's roughly where it always falls.
It would wipe out the entire gang, and make January increase a decline.
Then, again, this is the case with every January jobs report, because the actual change in jobs in the first month of the year, this year, is down anywhere between 2.5 and 3 million. The latest diversions between the establishment payrolls and then the much more household actual unemployment or employment survey, the BLS claims 353,000 payrolls were added.
But the household survey that counts the number of actually employed workers, this time dropped by 31,000.
Okay. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. So which one is right?
This means that the payroll series hit all-time highs every month since December 2020.
The level of unemployment has barely budged in the last year.
Worse, the -- this has opened up the -- the number of unemployed or employed workers.
If -- if the numbers are true, the way they've adjusted everything. The number of employed workers would need to sorry by 9 million to catch up to what the payroll claims is the actual employment situation. BLS reports that in January 2024, the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs, and 27.9 million part-time jobs.
That's great until you look back one year, and find out that in February '23, the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs or more than it does a year later.
So wait.
We had 133.1 million full-time jobs last December, or January.
But this January, it's supposed to be great. But last January, we had 133.2.
Somehow or another, we've lost some jobs.
Where does it go?
And, by the way, all of the job growth since then has been part-time jobs.
Part-time jobs have increased by 870,000. And all the jobs? Yes, they're part-time. But here's something even better.
The number of native born workers is down again. It has slid by a massive 560,000. Add this to the December data. We get a new record of 1.9 million in a plunge from native-born workers in the last two months.
2 million native-born workers have lost their jobs.
And the job creation, all of it in the last four years. Has been exclusively foreign-born workers.
Zero job creation for native-born workers since July of 2018. So tell me we're getting healthier. I don't think we are. I think people are working part-time jobs a lot more. And people who are born here in America, are not getting jobs, because all of the job growth has been with nonnative-born workers. Oh, you're only saying that because you hate -- no. I'm only saying it because that's what the numbers say, period.
