Ohio becomes key swing state in Glenn’s electoral map

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Today on radio, Glenn decided to put together his electoral college prediction using the New York Times web tool.

After reviewing the poll numbers, Glenn gave Obama the toss-up states Wisconsin and Nevada, while moving Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia to Romney. He was left with Ohio as the key state before eventually giving it to Romney, but warned Christians will need to come out and vote in order to swing the election for Romney as the polls currently show them being very close.

Glenn’s map gave Romney a victory over Obama of 285-253.

After moving some smaller states to Obama, things got much closer but Stu pointed out that if Ohio swings to Obama the President would easily be looking at a second term.

Stu explained there was a situation where a close vote in Ohio could result in it taking eleven days to get the results. The Cincinnati Enquier explains:

Under Secretary of State Jon Husted’s initiative to send absentee ballot applications to nearly 7 million registered voters across Ohio, more than 800,000 people so far have asked for but not yet completed an absentee ballot for the Nov. 6 election.

Anyone who does not return an absentee ballot, deciding instead to vote at the polls, will be required to cast a provisional ballot. That’s so officials may verify that they did not vote absentee and also show up at the polls.

By state law, provisional ballots may not be counted until at least Nov. 17. That means that if Ohio’s electoral votes would be decisive in the race between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the state could keep the nation in suspense for weeks after the election.

When asked what piece of Glenn’s map was the most unlikely scenario, Stu pointed out that Ohio was far from a lock for Romney and was the most likely swing state in Glenn’s scenario to end up in Obama’s category.

The radio crew will be closely watching the polls over the final days until the election on November 7th.

Of course, Glenn did say that momentum could, in a very good night for America, result in the below:

  • landofaahs

    Swing state.  That’s an appropriate name.  If Ohio votes obama it may well be hanging itself.  Talk about swinging, says the pirate, “swings one swings all I says”. 

  • http://www.artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm snowleopard (cat folk gallery)

    The just shall live by faith – we have our part to carry out in Gods plans.

    Deal with what we are able to deal with, ask of God for his guidance in each part of the day; and that which we cannot deal with entrust to Him.

    For what is to be, shall be, as it is meant to be in accordance to His will and plan.

  • http://www.artinphoenix.com/gallery/grimm snowleopard (cat folk gallery)

    Hangmen used to joke to the criminals in a town about them coming to a ‘necktie party.’ Guess the bandits must have become real good ‘swingers.’

  • Elizabeth Bracy

    Do people think the electoral college should be done with? I think it’s unfair that it just comes down to one state, and also it makes it that your vote doesn’t really count. Example- I live in Oregon, and I voted (in the mail), even though I know all the votes will go to Obama. Shouldn’t we just go by the popular vote? What was the original purpose of the electoral college?

  • http://twitter.com/patvgarst Pat Garst

    Did you see the poll that had Romney and Obama TIED in Michigan?

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1804999977 Rachel Cain

    Too darn funny! Watching you three discuss the electoral college reminded me of “Who’s on first…” with Abbott and Costello. God love ya, you three made me laugh, a lot! Life is good! :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1804999977 Rachel Cain

    If their tied, we’ll just take and give it to Romney! :)

  • Anonymous

     AMEN! Love your post….

  • Anonymous

    Sorry, that argument is sheer rubbish for several reasons. Ohio is not the only state voting, so it by itself is not electing one man or the other. Why not say California is the one to blame for Mr. Obama? Or Washington, or Massachusetts? They aren’t mentioned, simply because they’re such a lock for Obama but they are just as important to him.

    The reason for the electoral college is to somewhat reduce the impact of heavily-populated states eclipsing the smaller states in the vote count. That, in turn, is because in our system the states elect the President, not the population of the country at large. After all, we are the United States – NOT America. The Electoral College balances the wish for the smaller states to have equal voice in elections, and the larger states to have their greater populations acknowledged. The popular vote was not even recorded until the 1824 election, when Andrew Jackson’s supporters claimed he should have won because he had more votes overall. Well, that’s very nice but it means nothing unless our constitution is amended. Until that ever happens, he or she who gets the greatest number of electoral votes is elected. Period.

  • Anonymous

     I need a drink. It just occurred to me that I had to explain something to a grown adult that they should have learned in junior high school. Please, in the next election if you don’t even understand your own country’s government or how it works – DON’T VOTE.

  • Anonymous

    Ohio is solid Romney. Every poll showing Obama leading has a higher Dem turnout than in 2008.

    The latest ones show that even if Obama DID get the same turnout in Ohio, he’d lose.

    Dems had a +7 advantage in 2008; Reps had a +2 advantage in 2010.  For Obama to win he needs a +10 advantage based on these recent polls.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

  • sara holy land

    My heart goes out to the parents who lost their sons.

  • Anonymous

    The way I see it is that those voting for Obama are in serious Denial. Problems are never resolved as long as Denial happens. The first step in recovery programs is always to acknowledge there is a problem…or no recovery is possible. Pray for the eyes and minds of people to be opened up. As others have hinted at and I have often said diehard Obama supporters will be persistent to the end…even to the point of having the noose around their own neck and the necks of their loved ones. Personally, I believe it is morally wrong to even be a reigistered Democrat because I cannot stand behind their platform, let alone on it. Strange thing is that Biden would potentially make an even worse President…try that one on for size in the line of succession…enough to drive one to the insane asylum.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_GXK4OXD6SQZZM5LN42KQVY7KAE Racindavid

    owebama WILL lose WI….

     

  • http://suzeraining.wordpress.com/ suz

    w/the way bho is corrupt, he will not leave his post regardless of who WE THINK won.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/SH2GYMDQCZERFQ2ZXPGCRKLYYY Kevin Kennon

    I believe there is a common ground actually, that being each district gets a vote in each state.  When looking at a state like PA, where I live, the entire state is red other than Philly and Pittsburgh.  That doesn’t seem fair either.  With 20 electoral votes, those may wind up 10-10, 15-5, whatever…but it seems like then the election would have more meaning than the campaigning we see in six to ten states.

    And I know the Constitution quite well, realizing it would require an amendment, but this may be the most equitable solution and would force candidates to hear the voices throughout the country rather than in a few key swing states.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Janet-Bernasconi/1583516658 Janet Bernasconi

    I am seriously worried that Romney will not get enough votes to win. All those voting for Obama are in denial to see him for what he is. A total fake. By the time they wake up and see him as the evil one it will be too late. It’s sad that there is more evil than good in the world.
     

  • http://arthur-l-hopson.myopenid.com/ ArthurHopson

    @elizabethbracy:disqus Francis implied I'm alarmed that a single mom able to make $5131 in one month on the computer. did you see this site link >>.GOO.Gl/HhbQU

  • Anonymous

    Only in our wildest dreams would that last “prediction” come true–not impossible, of course, just not likely!!  I hear obammy is calling Romney some downright nasty names–very ungentlemanly and certainly unpresidential of him, but does the media even  care?  obammy is running around telling everyone that Romney “agrees with him” and incessently using the word “me” to the extent he surpasses the toddler in the terrible two’s stage!  While we know what the popular vote outcome will be, the big concern, of course, is how those members of the EC will cast their vote.  Only 7 States regulate how their votes will be cast, the other 43 + DC can cast ad lib–toss all their votes to the challenger, all the votes to the incumbent, or split the votes in any fashion they wish.  I don’t think it will be an even split where the Representatives select the President and the Senate selects the VP (if that did happen, we could wind up with Romney and Biden because of the xxxhxxx reid).  Too, no matter what the popular vote is, the EC could go against the people and put the zero back in the Oval Office (and I wonder if the people would revolt). These are trying times for certain–but in cse he loses, I suggest we all donate a quarter to purchase a tiny raft with one oar and set the o’s on a sea course to Indonesia–where is real citizenship is.  And because we are humanitarian, we would provide free one-way air travel for the girls and their grandmother–after all, we do NOT wage ”war” on children or the elderly.

  • Anonymous

    No, because it is provided for in the Constitution.  It is the State that has the right to regulate how their EC membership casts their votes.  Only 7 States do this: 3 require all EC votes to go to the popular winner in their State; the other 4 allow them to split the vote in some fashion (I think one State says half must go to the popular winner and the other half can go to the opposition).  The only thing the citizens of any State can do is petition their respective State Legislators and ask that they regulate how the EC membership may vote.  It’s a little late for this election, but plenty of time for the next–provided, of course, the dictator doesn’t end free elections during his 2nd fraudulent term in office should he be returned to the Oval Office. And, whatever you do, DO NOT DEMAND A CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION—that is the last thing you would want because it would give obammy and his ozero crew the golden opportunity to totally get rid of the US Constition, the Bill of Rigts, and the Declaration of Independence.

  • Anonymous

    My fellow buckeyes are pretty shrewd. I think most of them see through this guy like he is a piece of cellophane. Unfortunately, Obama hides behind his lies so unless you are paying attention, you might think that he is ok. The man is JUST PLAIN EVIL. In four years he has managed to almost bankrupt the country, not having done anything he said he was going o do, except increase the price of energy, gasoline. He just said what he needed to say to get elected, and he is doing the same thing now. I hope everyone sees through this muslim turkey.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Adrianne-Georgia/1274643336 Adrianne Georgia

    The purpose of the electoral college is to ensure that people in all states, regardless of the population density of the state they live in, are made important to the presidential election. If we went by the popular vote, then candidates would only need to pay attention to the major population centers of the country–the East and West coasts, the Chicago area, etc. Rural areas and many Midwestern states would be largely overlooked because a candidate theoretically would not need votes from those areas in order to win an election.  With the electoral college system, the candidates need to bring as many entire states to their side as they can, and to do so, they have to court voters from all kinds of areas, not just the big cities with high population.

  • Anonymous

    Pray…..pray……and pray… our republic may very well depend on it.  May God be with us :o)

  • DANIEL MARCHAL

    Everyone needs to pray so that Romney and Paul get elected to run our country….We need leaders who have God as a big part of their lives….

  • Anonymous

    The major polls show Romney taking control of this election but the American people trust Obama far too much. You would have to be deaf, dumb and blind not to know just how rotten to the core his philosophy is. To Obama the ends justify the means. He will do everything in his power to manipulate the voting process in his favor. He absolutely despises the Constitution the very document he swore to defend. The country is completely divided despite the fact that Obama promised he would unite it. Now 23 million people are looking for jobs, 47 million people on food stamps - we don’t have them in Canada, thank God, and I could sure use them – and your country is bankrupt yet still most of your people trust this megalomaniac. And, guess what, any attempt to question his loyalty to the American people is met with the charge of racism. I really don’t see how you can force such a monster will step down from power.

  • Anonymous

     While it would take an amendment to the Constitution to replace the Electoral College with direct voting – an action that would re-open the split between large and small states, possibly resulting in secession of some states – it is up to the individual States HOW their electors are chosen. Nebraska (or is it Kansas?) and Maine citizens elect by congressional district and at-large electors. In the early days of the Union, South Carolina used to elect them in the state legislature. I prefer the statewide method myself, if only because it causes candidates to pay more attention to more of the States during a campaign for national office.

  • Anonymous

    Popular vote only would be the end of the Republic, as Dem voting fraud would be super-charged.  We must stay with the Electoral College which is set up in the Constitution in any event, and could only be changed by a Constitutional Amendment.  There are actually 10 or so battleground or swing states in play right now-a most important one right near you in Nevada so it really does not just come down to one state. 

  • windtalker700

    Amen !

  • greywolfrs

    I find it funny that everyone is saying pray for Romney and there are a lot of people still on Obamao’s side. Well, here comes the truth, I know how much everyone loves it when I do this. There would be no need to pray and a lot less people on Obamao’s side if Republicans would stop putting up these clowns. Everyone is saying the Republic depends on it, then don’t you people think you should have put up a true conservative? Don’t you think it was time to put up someone who could have beat the pants off of this Communist-in-Chief? Instead, you helped put up a clown and now have to pray he wins. 

  • obamapacksfudge

    romney is no clown he did’nt get paid but a dollar to be governor or the olympics and hes paid for 2 kids for college out of kindness, who else you know that gives 4 million to charities? the guy don’t want to see our country go down the shiiter like the communist obama is doing

  • http://twitter.com/nowornever2012 nowornever2012

    I think this might be the ‘George Washington’ moment.  This is a very interesting story about Romney realizing that he’s on the verge of becoming the next president.  His reaction is really something. Here’s an excerpt: 
    “The governor returns backstage and he is smiling and shaking hands, taking congratulations from everybody around him. He’s saying how great it was. Somebody yells out he’s going to win Colorado and the governor laughs and says he thinks so too. And then something very interesting happens. He moves away from the group of people just a bit. Maybe ten or fifteen feet or so. Just enough to have a little space to himself. And enough people notice that the area gets a lot more quiet, and they are trying to watch the governor without looking like they are watching the governor. They can all kind of tell something is happening right then. It was described as something very peaceful and powerful that came over that backstage area for a moment. And the governor, he lowers his head and his eyes shut tight and you could see him take a slow deep breath and then he lets it out and says quietly, but just loud enough for some to hear, “Lord, if this is your will, please help to make me worthy. Please give me the strength Lord.” And then his eyes open up, and he’s back to smiling and laughing and shaking hands and being the candidate once again.”

    If you want to see the entire description of what happened, here’s the link:

     http://thecompetentconservative.com/white-house-insider-mitt-romneys-quiet-prayer-amidst-the-sound-of-thunder/

  • Poison_ Monkey

    Trusted Obama to cut debt in half NOT an additional 6 Trillion!
    Trusted Obama for more jobs NOT 4 Million jobs down!
    Trusted Obama to tell truth about Benghazi NOT LIE about dead American’s.  
    Trusted Obama is Christian NOT remove God and Israel…really?
    Once a liar always a liar…

  • http://twitter.com/paoligarcy Paolina

    The way I see it, Obama is going to win a second term, and America is forever out of the hands of the GOP, because in 2016 demographics will be far worse for the GOP and the democrats will have a stronger candidate: Hillary Clinton.

    So there are really only three options left at that point. The first is that the GOP implodes and we all join the democratic party (creating a one-party state until the radical socialists separate and form a new party which would be easier to defeat). This is probably the smartest and best outcome as conservatives tend to be more politically aware and we could easily take over the primary process.

    The second option is we stop looking to DC to solve our problems and begin nullifying Obamacare (if we lose this is the only way to stop it). This would lead to open conflict with the federal government however.

    Third option, the worst option, is after defeat, the GOP deludes itself that it can continue, and various third parties begin to grow further cementing the democratic stranglehold on the USA.

    Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham both said the party should be disbanded if it can’t win this election because it’s the easiest election we’re ever gonna have for decades (it just goes to show how socialist the Northeast and California have become). At this rate,  unless we disband and infiltrate the democratic party and force the socialists to leave it and form an admittedly socialist party, there really is no other way. I think “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” is most effective.

    After all, their propaganda has always been at the label “Republican”, and they have effectively made it an ugly word. So become “Democrats” and the dirt no longer sticks and attempts at differentiating candidates in primaries would be far too hard to explain to the average ignorant democratic voter.

  • Anonymous

    OHHHHHHHHH I  LIKE THE BOTTOM MAP WOULD THAT NOT CAUSE OBAMADRAMA?
    HEHE

  • Anonymous

    This is why I am afraid Obama will get in… it doesn’t matter what the popular vote is, and I think that is just wrong.  Also, we all know how much corruption there is, and will be, on election day.  And no one evers punished for corrupt elections.  Keep in mind also the reports of Military people not being given ballots, even though they have been requesting them.  This is just way too close, and I am worrying a LOT…

  • Anonymous

    Quick addition to my post, I don’t recall anyone teaching my class about how the voting system works in the USA.  I live in MA, and they left out a LOT of important history.  That was over 20 years ago… can you imagine how bad it is NOW???

  • Anonymous

    IF YOU LOVE AMERICA,PLEASE VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/patty.cieslakcarson Patty Cieslak Carson

    Well we did not have to amend the constitution to elect a president who was not born in the US. And we did have to amend the constitution to allow for a president to remove freedom of speach from our religious leaders. And we did not have to amend the constitution to force religious institutions to go against their religious faiths. And what about using tax dollars to fund planned parenthood and pay for abortions. And what about allowing a president to lie to us and use coverups.

    The constitution no longer matters. So lets demand that the popular vote count this time.

  • http://www.facebook.com/patty.cieslakcarson Patty Cieslak Carson

     I live in Erie PA and it is also very blue. My vote never counts.

  • http://www.facebook.com/courtney.k.craig.9 Courtney Keyes Craig

    http://tinyurl.com/8mobehl

    Help me Win Ohio for Romney. Support us or JOINUS at WinOhio. You can support us 3 ways: 1. Come with us to Ohio & go door to door ensuring a Romney victory. 2. Find a family or friend to come to Ohio. 3. Sponsor a Volunteer that wants to come to Ohio but cannot afford it. Sponsor all the costs (about $750) or donate what you can afford

  • Anonymous

    GOP people in Ohio, watch for Liberals trying to hack and cheat there. remember. being moral and honest is a tactic to many Liberals not an ethic to be followed. They will do anything for power

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Jayne-Nielsen/100000024501720 Jayne Nielsen

    What is so frustrating is Ohio, Wisconsin (and one other State that slips my mind at the moment) has been under a REPUBLICAN Governor for the last two years and all three States have the lowest unemployment and has seen the greatest job gains but yet still hangs in the balance for Romney/Ryan.  Unbelieveable.

  • http://twitter.com/eeyore436 C Nelson

    It’s also frustrating to see that people have watched this President lie, and get caught in many lies, and still want to vote for Obama. 

  • Anonymous

    That’s where I think you’re wrong.  Romney is no clown!  He has been mis-defined by Obama and his cronies, and even be many in the GOP.  He is, by far, one of the most competent leaders to ever run for office.  Clown my arse!  The reason the prayers are needed is because so many people are either blind, mis-informed, or simply apathetic.

  • Anonymous

    What is scary is that this whole election comes down to just a couple of “swing” states. Don’t freaking get it.. I really don’t want the fate of my/our country in the hands of just a couple of states deciding whom they think should be POTUS. They better make the right decision or I say they can keep Obama and become their won country…see how they like Obama then.  I’m nervous….there is also something obviously wrong with our voting system…two states decides for country??? 

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1559868586 Larry Shoup Jr

    What a blubbering idiot

  • greywolfrs

    Oh please, I find it funny that people like you think being business is what it takes to be president. Government is NOT a business. Government produces NO products, they resale NOTHING, they are NOT allowed to make a “profit.” The only thing similar is a budget and that isn’t rocket science.

  • Anonymous

    You sound like Biden: you find everything funny!  Makes more sense why your comments are completely irrational.

    It’s silly to presume that those of that support Romney only want him because of his extensive business background.  Romney has proven himself to be a well-qualified leader – yes, in business, but also with the Olympics, in his church, AND as a governor.  Who cares if he was only a governor for one term?  Governors are pretty much the closest thing you can get to being qualified for President.  States are microcosms of the country-at-large.  As Governor of MA he would have experienced the rigors of government leadership and the same organization that exists at the federal level – albeit in a smaller scale of course.  You could certainly make arguments about how well a person governed and from the sounds of it, I’m sure you probably have plenty of negative things to say about Romney.  Many would disagree with you.

    Finally, why minimize the importance of budgeting?  Okay, maybe it isn’t rocket science, as you say.  So tell me why no one can seem to do it on the national level?  Obama certainly hasn’t done it.  Mark my words: if Romney wins this election and manages to balance the budget, reduce the deficit, and preside over the kind of job creation that he proposes to stimulate, I believe he’ll go down as one of the best presidents we’ve ever had.

  • Anonymous

    Pray! I’ve been praying daily for weeks that Romney would win and that the Lord would turn our nation back to Him.   As snowleopard mentions below we shall live by faith, and hopefully, Many are praying daily as well that God would be in this election to see that fraud does not dictate the outcome. Pray that the minds and hearts of those voting for Obama would be opened to see the truth of what his first term has done to this nation!

  • Anonymous

    Romney will get between 305 & 331  electoral votes.
    Put it in the bank.

  • spook

    I cant find info on colorado pollsters glen talked about month or so ago.who had the model that predicted last several presidents elections.

  • Anonymous

    If Romney “wins” OH, it will be as a result of systemic voter fraud on the part of the Secretary of State, Jon Husted. Beck probably has no idea who Husted is yet (ignorance is Beck’s forte); but he will later this week if OH is even very close. Husted has limited early voting hours, added a “patch” that is not even tested or authorized to the voting machines AND suddenly changed the instructions for provisional ballots.

    How do you spell corruption?  J-o-n H-u-s-t-e-d.

  • Anonymous

    Four years of anti-Obama propaganda, tear, fears and smears for what?  NOTHING!

    Glenn Beck = EPIC FAILURE!