With every news channel dedicated to Hurricane Sandy, attention next week’s Presidential election has faded to the background. Even worse, the Benghazi crisis risks fading into the background of the news cycle. How are the battleground states shaping up? And what role will independents play in the election?
Stu explained that one of the most interesting polls came from NPR, which previously had Romney down seven points nationwide.
“The poll today came out with NPR and had Romney up one. So an 8‑point swing from the last poll,” Stu said. “The key to this poll is they have Romney only leading by one. With independents Romney is winning by 12. If Romney wins 51‑39 on independents, there’s no way he’s only winning by 1.”
“And I think this is where they are screwing it up. This is where what I’m talking about happens. Because it’s independents that are the ones that aren’t being counted right. It’s the TEA Party vote that says I’m not a Republican, I’m an independent. And if he’s up by 12 points, there’s no way he wins by 1,” Glenn said.
“You just have to do everything that you’re supposed to do and get out and vote and grab a neighbor and bring them as well.”
Transcription of the segment is below:
GLENN: Let’s take a look at some of the state polls and where things stand now. Stu it up on the, if you’re watching on TheBlaze TV, he’s on the set for the election night coverage which isn’t finished yet but we’re putting the numbers up on the board, a gigantic board. It’s actually, we took an old picture from the, I think 1960 race with Jack Kennedy from CBS and this is what ‑‑ I mean, we modeled our studio after that. It’s a giant chalkboard in the back and it has all of the 50 states and where the, you know, where the poll numbers are. Will take me through the interesting places here, Stu.
STU: Well, all right. Let’s go to what we have kind of a toss‑up races as we’ve been talking about. Colorado is one that’s pretty close. Latest Rasmussen poll has Romney up 4 there, 50‑46. It’s a pretty important state and one that I don’t think Romney necessarily counted on at the beginning but he’s polled well there. I t’s kind of gone back to a toss‑up in some of the polling averages. Real Clear Politics has it right now at an exact tie.
GLENN: So Colorado is drifting back towards Obama?
STU: Yeah, the last few polls have showed that, but the Rasmussen poll ‑‑ I know you like Rasmussen most and he’s been shown to be one of the most ‑‑
STU: ‑‑ accurate pollsters around. So we used that generally where we could.
STU: So that’s a big state for Romney.
GLENN: Colorado, you know, anybody who is in Colorado, you like your guns. Let me make a prediction: If Barack Obama wins on Tuesday, Wednesday you will not be able to ‑‑ the waiting list for guns because you won’t be able to buy one not because of the government but because they will be selling at such high volume. It will be staggering. Wednesday will be the biggest gun sales day and next week will be the biggest gun sale week in the history of the world if Barack Obama wins next Tuesday.
STU: That happened last time he was elected, too.
GLENN: Oh, yeah, it will be ‑‑ it will dwarf that. It will dwarf that.
STU: Wow. Ohio is obviously the big state the it’s got the fancy light on it and that’s how you know it. But the fancy State of Ohio is still the biggest one. The latest poll from Rasmussen has Romney actually winning Ohio 50‑48. If that happens, he’s got a really clear path to winning 270 electoral votes.
GLENN: I’m just so afraid of ‑‑ I’m so afraid of corruption. It really comes down to Cincinnati. Have we made the decision yet if we’re going to be up in Cincinnati or Columbus this Friday? We had plans for three days of rallies up there and then the hurricane hit and we can’t get our people out of New York and from all over. So we can’t do it. We’re supposed to do something possibly this weekend in Chicago and Ohio and Wisconsin and I don’t know if we made that decision yet. Do we know?
STU: My last, what I last heard was Columbus on Friday.
STU: But I don’t know if that’s done yet.
GLENN: I’ve heard ‑‑ here’s the problem. If you look at the numbers of registered voters in Cleveland, this is why they’re hitting Cleveland so hard, Cleveland is way out of balance. It’s almost all Democrat and they are trying to get Cleveland to vote in overwhelming numbers. That’s why you have to get out to vote if you’re not in the Cleveland area, you’ve got to get out and vote and overwhelm the rest of the state. Don’t think that you’re in a sleepy little town that doesn’t matter because it does. You’ve got to get in there and vote and tear it up.
STU: Some of the other swing states, Glenn, Iowa we’re showing a tie at 48‑48.
STU: Another big state. Michigan is actually closer than a lot of people projected, especially because of the way Obama has tried to use this auto bailout as one of his big issues. Right now Obama only up 4 in Michigan. This really could go either way although still Obama would be favored there. Wisconsin is another one. Paul Ryan brings that one a little bit closer than was expected as well. Right now that one’s tied in the latest poll, 49‑49.
GLENN: That’s amazing.
PAT: Wow. That’s huge.
GLENN: It really all depends on turnout. It really depends on turnout.
PAT: Kind of the way we have this right now so far is with ‑‑ if we give Romney the states that he’s ahead in including Ohio, it looks like it’s about 281‑257 Romney.
STU: A few other states, Pat. I don’t know how you have them. Virginia. You probably have that for Romney.
PAT: For Romney.
STU: Right now the latest poll’s 50‑48 Romney.
GLENN: Wait, wait. Are you going to give Michigan to Romney? Because we’re doing this on the polls, too.
PAT: No. So far I got that for Obama.
GLENN: Michigan for Obama?
STU: Pennsylvania you would have I would assume towards Obama.
STU: Still leaning that way, although it’s tightened recently. 51‑46 is the latest poll we have.
GLENN: Wow. That is within ‑‑ that is within striking distance.
STU: Yeah, it’s not impossible.
PAT: It is.
GLENN: I mean, this could wind up being a sweep of the electoral college. It could be a sweep.
STU: Meaning ‑‑
GLENN: Either way.
PAT: Well, I mean ‑‑
GLENN: No, no.
GLENN: I mean a real landslide.
PAT: Yeah, it could.
GLENN: I mean, this could end up being a ‑‑
PAT: It could. I don’t know if that’s the most likely scenario but it could happen.
GLENN: Well, with all of these states being so close, I mean, look, what was the ‑‑ give me the number of the day before. Somebody look up for me the number of ‑‑ the polling number for the Wisconsin recall the week before, three days before and the day before if we have it. What were the polls saying? Because didn’t that win by six points or eight points? And I don’t believe that poll was accurate.
STU: No, you’re testing me and I don’t know off the top of my head, Glenn. We can look it up to are sure.
GLENN: But don’t you remember it being that way? Towards the end it looked like that thing wasn’t going to pass.
STU: The Scott Brown one is a good example of that, Scott Brown in Massachusetts where he, a few weeks, just a couple of weeks before that election was trailing by 20 points and wound up coming all the way back and actually winning and becoming the senator and now he’s running for a very tight reelection.
GLENN: Right. I think this happened in Texas as well where it’s like six or eight points different than what the last polls say right before election time. I mean, if that holds true, all of these numbers are ridiculous. Anything close goes to Romney. And that’s Ronald Reagan.
STU: Yeah. You know, it seems unlikely at this point that all of these would go that way.
GLENN: No, it does. I mean, I know it seems unlikely but ‑‑
STU: It’s possible.
GLENN: It is possible because of the TEA Party and the 9/12 vote.
PAT: Well, let’s give them the two states that are closest. Let’s give them Michigan and Wisconsin. And if you did that, it’s 307‑231. That’s huge.
GLENN: That’s huge.
PAT: That’s a landslide.
STU: Yeah, it’s not even going to be remotely close.
GLENN: Give him Florida.
PAT: He’s got that.
GLENN: Did you give him Virginia? What is Virginia at right now?
STU: Virginia right now I think is two points lead for Mitt Romney, 50‑48 is what we have it at.
GLENN: Okay. What is left up on the board?
STU: A couple of swing states. New Hampshire. Did we talk about that yet?
STU: New Hampshire is 50‑48 Obama right now.
GLENN: Give it to Obama.
PAT: I did.
STU: Nevada is another one that’s close, Obama 50‑48 as well, Obama.
GLENN: Give it to Obama.
STU: Florida has been trending towards Romney for a little while. The latest poll has him up two in Florida. And North Carolina is, I don’t even know if you can count that as a swing state anymore. It looks like Romney’s going to take that one, 52‑46 Romney right now.
GLENN: What about Iowa?
STU: We did hit Iowa here but it was ‑‑ let’s see.
PAT: It was tied, wasn’t it?
STU: 48‑48, an exact tie.
STU: Give that one to Obama maybe.
GLENN: Yeah, give it to Obama. And Colorado give to Romney.
PAT: Yeah, okay.
PAT: I got 275‑263.
STU: And that’s ultra tight, one state makes the difference there. And that’s what’s interesting.
GLENN: I wonder which state we gave on the bubble chart.
STU: There’s one poll, Glenn, that came out today was from NPR and the last poll had Romney down 7 nationwide. The poll today came out with NPR and had Romney up one. So an 8‑point swing from the last poll.
GLENN: But here’s the key to this poll.
STU: The key to this poll is they have Romney only leading by one. With independents Romney is winning by 12. If Romney wins 51‑39 on independents, there’s no way he’s only winning by 1.
GLENN: And I think this is where they are screwing it up. This is where what I’m talking about happens. Because it’s independents that are the ones that aren’t being counted right. It’s the TEA Party vote that says I’m not a Republican, I’m an independent. And if he’s up by 12 points, there’s no way he wins by 1. You just have to do everything that you’re supposed to do and get out and vote and grab a neighbor and bring them as well.