Will Romney have a decisive victory next Tuesday? Many prominent Republicans and pundits are starting to present their theories on how Romney will end up with more than 300 electoral college votes. Does Glenn agree? He presented his own theory on radio this morning that showed Romney winning 321-217 over President Obama.
“What I asked Stu yesterday on the program was ‘Tell me about Wisconsin’. Wisconsin, Walker won by 9. But up until the very last couple of days, he was only up by 3. And I think like a week before or two weeks before, he was losing. And I remember it being a dead heat or him being close to losing and I remember thinking, ‘Oh, my gosh.’”
“And I remember talking to the guys at Freedom Works and they were like, “We got this one. We got it. I’m telling you we got it.” They know the grassroots and they are one of the only people that do know the grassroots. Now, this is like saying to ACORN really, except they’re clean.”
“This one is an independent grassroots‑driven machine. And it is the same kind of machine that drove people to Chick‑fil‑A. There is nobody that called people in, bused people. Nobody was making fraudulent chicken sandwiches and selling them. That didn’t happen. Nobody was promising hookers and illegal aliens anything if he just went into Chick‑fil‑A. It was just people of principle saying enough is enough and that’s what’s going to happen.”
“They are misreading the force of how many people are excited to go vote for Barack Obama. They are saying that it’s going to be ‑‑ that people are more excited. It’s going to be a bigger turnout for Barack Obama than there was in 2008. That’s just logically impossible, logically impossible. Now, could it be, go back to normal levels of 2006? Yeah. But he’s no longer the guy who’s going to bring innovative change and hope and everybody’s all excited and, hey, I’m going to vote for the first African‑American. That’s not happening this time. None of that is happening.”
Stu said, “And they show over and over again margins that would exceed 2008 or tie 2008 as far as democratic turnout over Republicans. And that just doesn’t ‑‑ I mean, just looking a the it, we know what’s happened the last four years. Even if you like the president, you’re not going to be as excited about it because, A, he’s not new and, as you point out, it’s not this historic first anymore. Plus the performance obviously has been middling at best.”
Glenn is having his researchers look at recent close elections, and he believes that past evidence will support his theory that anywhere the election is currently close will see Mitt Romney add several points in the final results next week.
“If it’s close right now in swing states, he will put either three or six points on top of that,” Glenn said.
Glenn used Iowa as an example. “Tied 48‑48. He will be anywhere from 3 to 6 points ahead in Iowa. When that comes back, that count, it will be 3 to 6 points ahead.”
If you extrapolate his theory that you could swing three to six points in swing states to Romney, Glenn ended up with a 321-217 victory for Romney in the electoral college.
Stu and Glenn both said that these results are dependent on activists, 9/12 groups, Tea Party members, churches, and others all turning out and voting.
Even if Romney scores a victory, Glenn said to watch for Barack Obama’s professional career after the White House. Like many national level progressives – Carter, Clinton, Gore – Glenn thinks Obama could be just as influential among liberals out of office as he was while in office.