This morning’s radio program was a bit of an emotional roller coaster for Glenn as he reacted to Senator Thad Cochran’s (R-MS) slim victory over Mississippi State Senator Chris McDaniel (R) in Tuesday’s runoff. As the election analysis come out, it is clear Cochran won because the GOP poured money into a get out to vote campaign among black Democrats in the state. Glenn reacted to the desperate tactics employed by the GOP in this race and warned listeners that this is just the tip of the iceberg.
The data aggregation website FiveThirtyEight has already begun to break down the Mississippi election results, and based on some of the regressions that have been run, it looks like McDaniel was directly impacted by the increased turnout in black communities.
According to the Washington Post, in the 24 counties with a majority black population, turnout increased by 39.4%, giving Cochran a big edge. The FiveThirtyEight analysis seems to corroborate this idea. In fact, the site’s data has Cochran losing by as many as eight points, if black turnout had not increased so substantially.
We can do more with these regressions, though. We can hold the African-American percentage of the population variables constant in both the Cochran and McDaniel regressions, while adjusting the non-African American variables. This process mirrors on a county level what would happen if white or traditionally Republican turnout went up but black or traditionally Democratic turnout didn’t change from the first to the second round. In my scenario, I kept the African-American turnout constant from the first round of voting, but let the white vote increase as it actually did.
The result: Cochran loses a lot of votes. Instead of Cochran winning the runoff by 2 points, or about 6,000 votes, he loses by a little less than 8 points, or about 25,000 votes. He drops about 40,000 votes from his 190,000 vote total, while McDaniel loses only about 15,000 from his 185,000 vote total.
See the full FiveThirtyEight report HERE.
While the site says the 10 point swing that moves from Cochran winning by two points to losing by eight may not tell the whole story, pre-election polls had McDaniel winning the election by about eight points.
“We now know for sure it is all about power. It is not about principles. It is not about people,” Glenn said. “Thad Cochran wants power. The Chamber of Commerce, all they want is power… The GOP – it’s not a Grand Old Party – it’s Guardian of Power. That’s all it is.”
After more than 40 years in Congress, Cochran is as entrenched as they come. In New York, another four decade-long incumbent, Congressman Charlie Rangel (D-NY), is expected to win a close election against a much younger opponent. Washington D.C. has come to resemble an aristocracy.
“It is a place of aristocracy. That’s all it is. George Washington warned us. This is not a Tea Party. This is George Washington,” Glenn said. “George Washington warned us the two party system [would] be the death of us… George Washington was right. But we allowed ourselves to be seduced. We bought it hook, line, and sinker.”
Ultimately, Glenn believes we have been played a group of power hungry elitists. But, hopefully, this election represents the end of the era.
“America, the gig is up. It is really obvious now. They are doing nothing but playing a game… We are pawns. Period… You have every right to be angry,” Glenn concluded. “[But] you understand this: We still run the country. They might run the system of power, but this is still our country. We still have certain rights that, no matter what they do, only God can take them from us.”
Front page image courtesy of the AP