Red Cell: Wargaming the border crisis

Get Glenn Live! On TheBlaze TV

Below is a transcript of this segment

Buck: There’s no doubt that the situation at the border is a total mess right now, which means that the unexpected is likely to happen. The president is going to do something, we’re not clear on what that is, and we’re going to have to take a look at what the possibilities are if we’re going to anticipate them. So with that in mind, I want to introduce you to a concept. It’s something that I learned from my days in the CIA. I want to apply that to the border. Now, it’s called Red Cell.

Red Cell is basically a wargaming exercise, but it looks specifically at high-impact, low-probability scenarios, things that could happen and if they did happen would really make a very big difference. It also looks at things that are likely and tries to then give us a sense, an analytic sense, of where all of this is going. It’s a way of viewing potential outcomes without actually knowing the future.

So joining me to hash this out and Red Cell the border with me is Dan Stein. He’s the President of the Federation for American Immigration Reform. Dan, thank you for your time.

Dan: Good to be here.

Buck: So one possibility as we see it now is that there could be a show of force. Now, this is based upon the reporting that the federal agents are going to be showing up now with batons and with riot shields prepared for less than lethal force usage against American citizens who protest these busing policies of taking illegal immigrants who are caught at or near the border and moving them into cities or towns far away from the border.

First of all, do you see this as a high likelihood, and then, more importantly, if this were to happen, do you think that this would dramatically change the immigration debate if there was some sort of clash between citizens and federal agencies on how this whole thing is playing out?

Dan: Well, at fair, we think the American people have had enough, and they’re drawing a line in the sand when it appears as if the executive branch has abandoned its commitment to enforce U.S. borders and taxpayers are expected to pick up the tab for people who may not have been properly inspected when they come across the border without limit. It’s not surprising to see American citizens stand up and protest what seems to be just patently illegal activity by the president.

Now, there are all kinds of evidence that the executive branch and this administration has backed itself into a corner. Politically speaking, they have undermined U.S. immigration law enforcement by repeatedly adopting policies nationally calculated to send a message all around the world that our borders are not going to be enforced and that if you get here illegally you’re never going to be removed.

As a result, you know, ICE, border patrol, and others have been transformed into a welcoming center and a diaper changing service and not doing the jobs they were hired to do. And ICE officials have been warning us for years that this administration was dismantling them and their core mission.

Buck:Do you believe that federal agents would use force though to move these protesters out of the way? Do you think we could see an ugly incident if these protests continue?

Dan: There’s no question that we could see an incident depending on how the protests unfold, and there’s no question that it would set up a scenario where the average American would see confirming in his or her mind that the federal government has set itself directly at variance with the interests of the American people.

Buck: Now Dan, let me move on really quickly because we’re going to run short on time.

Dan: Sure.

Buck: The second scenario we’re talking about here is the possibility that President Obama decides to expand deferred action categories. This is the pen and the phone situation where he just on his own says you know what, we’re not going to send back whole sections of people, whole different groups of people because I say so. Do you think the president might actually do that, and also, what would that do to hope for comprehensive immigration reform as they call it? And you think it would have an impact politically?

Dan: Well, at fair, we have every indication the president is planning to expand this illegal use of parole power to include five, six, ten million people, no doubt about it that since he’s already usurped the Congress’s role and taken control of who gets to come into this country, nothing will prevent him from expanding that. And politically speaking, it sounds like based on what he said in the meeting last week that that’s what he’s going to do.

Buck: Now, what about the possibility of an outlier scenario here, something, although we have seen some cases of infectious disease already crossing over the borders, but perhaps a swine flu outbreak, something of a public health crisis that comes out of this? Do you think that that would force Democrats to take border security more seriously or would they just say well, we need to give HHS more money and somehow the bureaucracy will handle this? Do you think that they would be in a position where they would have to change their basic position which seems to be amnesty in different ways and different means?

Dan: Well look, the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, Senator Feinstein, I mean, they own this border crisis, and when border patrol agents are busy with young people, they’re not patrolling the border, so cartels are smuggling people in. We don’t know what their motives are, obviously people who haven’t been properly inspected for health screening and other things. And in the end, the Democratic Party has said look, we don’t care whether people come in legally or illegally, actively encouraging them, state after state now encouraging them.

What will it take to get the Democratic Party to once again assume that there is political risk to what they’re doing? Maybe a major contagious disease outbreak, maybe a major terror incident, but I’ll tell you that the administration is playing with fire. They’ve backed themselves into a very dangerous corner politically just to try to take advantage of this demonizing agenda they have with the Latino vote and the Republican Party, and the American people are seriously at risk.

Buck: Dan Stein, President of the Federation for American Immigration Reform, we appreciate your time very much. Thank you for joining us.

Dan: Thank you.