Nate Silver and that NY Times Election Prediction Liberals Love So Much

First of all, let me say that unlike almost every conservative on Earth right now, I don’t think Nate Silver is a hack.

I think he’s actually a really smart numbers geek.  He writes the blog FiveThirtyEight, which is now hosted by the New York Times (though I’ve been reading his stuff long before it was part of the Times.)  The reason he is controversial to conservatives right now and why liberals think he is a saint, is because he is predicting that Obama has a 78.4% chance of winning reelection.    To a lot of people, that sounds completely insane.

Two quick things before we delve into the accuracy of that claim:

1)     I would describe Nate Silver as an admitted liberal, with a soft spot for markets.  He is strangely libertarian on some things, which I like, even though I don’t usually agree with him on policy.

2)     He was one of the first people that I remember who predicted Republicans had a good chance at taking the House back after the ’08 election.  This is during the time when most liberals (and some conservatives) were saying the Republican Party was about to become a regional party with no hope of ever winning another election.  He also was recently yelled at by holier than thou ‘scientist’ Michael Mann about global warming.  So, he can’t be all bad.

So, what about Nate Silver’s model as it stands right now?  In my opinion, I think he is significantly overstating the chances of an Obama win, with a few caveats.

For example, his own model says that if he has predicted 0.8% of voters’ choices incorrectly, Romney would win the popular vote.  If that were to happen (again, by his own model) Romney would almost certainly win the electoral college as well.  (A Romney win in the popular vote and a loss in the electoral college has only a 5.1% chance of happening, according to Silver.)

Look, if you get 0.8% of voters wrong and your prediction falls apart—you probably aren’t 80% sure of it.

I don’t think Silver is intentionally making it look like Obama is a sure thing because he’s liberal.  I just think he’s a tad too cocky on this one.  That’s not the worst thing in the world.  Wall Street stat geeks were too sure of themselves with the algorithms that led to the financial collapse.

Global warming scientists are too sure of themselves with their models of the future.

Human beings do such things.

One of the features of Silver’s model is that when the race remains static, and the election gets closer, whoever is ahead becomes more of a sure thing.  That’s why his model seems to absurdly show Romney’s chances to be only slightly better than they were before the first debate.

Basically, to him, a 2 point lead that’s confirmed by numerous polls is incredibly convincing.  That’s about what’s happening in Ohio, and if Romney loses Ohio, it’s going to be pretty difficult for him to win.  I’d say Romney’s chances probably are about one in five if he loses Ohio, so it’s not completely ridiculous if you really trust the polls.

Many of the polls however, just look sketchy.  They show samples that are more optimistic for Democrats than the electorate was in 2008.  If more Democrats come out to vote than did in 2008, than yeah—Mitt Romney is losing.  But, does anyone actually believe that’s reality?   2008 was a historic election for Democrats.  Barack Obama is simply not going to repeat that enthusiasm again.  It is not happening.

On the other side, while a 78% win seems like a sure thing-- let’s put it in football terms.  Essentially, Silver is saying the Boston Romney’s have the football, down by a field goal to the Chicago Obama’s with 2 minutes left in the game.  First and ten from their own 31.  Romney could get a field goal to send it to overtime, or score a TD and grab a win.  Or they could go three and out and lose.  I can’t say that sounds THAT far off from what is happening in the election, yet, an NFL team in that situation has only a 22% chance of winning.

To me, the data says Romney’s chances are about twice as good as Silver says.  That still puts him as a slight underdog.  Beyond that, I’m depending on divine providence, hanging chads, or the Koch Brothers hacking electronic voting machines with the help of Grover Norquist or something.

The bottom line is that if Obama wins, everyone is going to think Silver is a genius.  If Romney wins, his credibility will be destroyed.  Neither is fair, but both are painfully unavoidable.

Greta Thunberg's latest escapade: Gaza aid or Mediterranean vacation?

Fabrizio Villa / Stringer | Getty Images

What would we do without Greta Thunberg?

Everyone's favorite Swedish nepo-baby climate activist is making waves with her latest plea for attention. Thunberg, who rose to fame when she prophesied an environmental apocalypse before the UN in 2019, has set aside the climate rhetoric to champion a new cause: freeing Palestine.

On Monday, June 2nd, Greta and her motley crew of wealthy activists, actors, and politicians—including Liam Cunningham of Game of Thrones fame and Rima Hassan, a French member of the European Parliament—set sail from Catania, Italy. The small sailboat, known as the Madleen, embarked with the lofty goal of "breaking Israel’s siege" of Gaza and delivering humanitarian aid. This fool’s errand was orchestrated by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, a "grassroots" organization founded in 2010 to bring aid and attention to the plight of Gazans… through boat rides.

As this video reveals, the so-called "urgent humanitarian mission" looked a whole lot more like a Mediterranean pleasure cruise, complete with swimming, frolicking in the sun, and social media posting. The booze-cruise vibe of the crew, paired with the tiny size of the craft, which could only carry enough "aid" for a token photo-op, exposed the true nature of this voyage. It was nothing more than a flimsy excuse for a group of privileged elites to enjoy an exotic vacation while fishing for attention and a dose of self-righteousness. All the while, chanting 'Free Palestine'—a slogan Glenn warns can fuel anti-Semitic violence like the Boulder firebombing.

Fabrizio Villa / Stringer | Getty Images

In the end, Greta Thunberg’s latest escapade was a textbook case of performative activism dialed up to eleven. Trading in her climate doom-mongering for this half-baked humanitarian jaunt, she clung to relevance without lifting a finger to do anything meaningful. The Freedom Flotilla Coalition’s little boat trip wasn’t about helping Gaza—it was a golden ticket for smug elites to soak up the Mediterranean rays while playacting as saviors. It’s a shameless grab for the spotlight, and Thunberg, with her flair for theatrics, is the ideal poster child for this floating fiasco.

Your voice unveiled: 81% support Trump’s stand against rigged justice

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Glenn asked for YOUR take on Trump’s pardon of Sheriff Scott Jenkins, and your response was unmistakable.

A resounding 71% of you said you believe the Biden Justice Department unfairly targeted Jenkins, a clear rebuke of the narrative peddled by the powers that be. Even more striking, 81% of you backed Trump’s decision to pardon him, seeing it not as a dodge of justice but as a defiant stand against a corrupted system. Your votes revealed a deep-seated belief that the judicial process is being twisted to serve political ends. Can the DOJ’s claims of fairness survive such overwhelming doubt from voices like yours?

Your verdict rings loud: Trump’s pardons aren’t undermining accountability—they’re exposing the rot within institutions that prioritize power over truth. The question now is, how long will the elite’s “justice” hold up against your demand for answers?

Want to make your voice heard? Check out more polls HERE.

Elon Musk calls it genocide—Why does the Left ignore South African farmers?

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Biden’s DHS freed a Venezuelan hitman. But Democrats erupted when Trump offered refugee status to white farmers fleeing racial persecution. It would be laughable if it weren’t so morally bankrupt.

The left’s radical immigration agenda isn’t just dangerous, it’s hypocritical to the core. Some recent stories show just how radical leftists have become.

Let’s start with a story Blaze News reported this month that should infuriate every law-abiding American. A 42-year-old Venezuelan man — a known hitman tied to the brutal El Chamu gang and accused of four contract killings — was released into the United States after being caught crossing the Arizona border illegally in 2022. That’s right: arrested, deemed inadmissible, then set free.

Leftists' selective outrage reveals a disturbing truth: Their moral compass isn’t guided by justice or suffering. It’s guided by race and politics.

But it gets worse. The Biden administration granted this suspected murderer a work permit because, at the time, the U.S. wasn’t talking to Venezuela about taking back its criminals.

This man walked freely through our communities for nearly three years. He was finally arrested in February 2025 — not thanks to Biden but because President Donald Trump pressured Venezuela to resume accepting deportees. Immigration and Customs Enforcement picked him up in Grapevine, Texas, which happens to be in my backyard.

This is what happens when ideology overrides public safety. And it’s not an isolated case.

An activist judge

In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Judge Hannah Dugan was just indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly helping an illegal immigrant evade ICE agents. Dugan reportedly got “visibly angry,” confronted federal agents in her courtroom, and then snuck the man — who was facing battery charges and had been deported once before — out a private exit for the jury.

This man is accused of punching one victim 30 times and attacking a woman who tried to intervene. Both victims were hospitalized. But Dugan, a sitting judge, allegedly aided his escape. That’s not just reckless — it’s criminal.

And yet, as usual, the left rushed to glorify her. Some are actually comparing Judge Dugan to Harriet Tubman. I wish I were joking! Leftist lawyer Jeffrey Mandell and his friends at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel are likening her actions to a modern Underground Railroad — as if protecting a violent illegal alien compares to the rescue of fugitive slaves.

It’s beyond insulting. Harriet Tubman risked her life to free human beings from bondage. Judge Dugan risked the public’s safety to help a man accused of brutal violence. The left’s delusional moral equivalence here reveals exactly how twisted their priorities have become.

Blind eye to genocide

Yet, these priorities don’t apply if you don’t have the left’s approved skin color.

President Trump has made it a priority to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. That’s what this is really about. But instead of recognizing the distinction between lawful immigration and criminal activity, the left screams that Trump wants to “kick out all immigrants” and destroy the American dream.

Then, when the administration offers refugee status to 59 Afrikaners fleeing persecution in South Africa, the same people lose their minds.

These are white farmers and their families — victims of racial violence, land seizures, and targeted killings. The South African government passed a law in 2024 that allows for the confiscation of land without compensation. Political rallies routinely feature chants of “Kill the Boer,” referring to white farmers. A political party leader led one such rally in 2023 — and it wasn’t subtle. The crowd chanted, “Shoot to kill!” with bloodthirsty fervor.

Elon Musk, a South African native, called it open incitement to genocide. He’s right.

You’d think the self-appointed champions of compassion would welcome these families with open arms. But no — they’re furious. MSNBC analyst Richard Stengel dismissed their plight as “apartheid nostalgia.” U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) called it “global apartheid.” And the Episcopal Church, which has helped resettle more than 100,000 refugees and proudly aids illegal aliens, publicly refused to help these 59 families. It even ended a 40-year partnership with the federal government over it.

Why? Because these refugees are white.

Jemal Countess / Stringer | Getty Images

Narrative-driven immigration

In summary, the left welcomed a Venezuelan gang hitman into the country and handed him a work permit. Leftists are defending a judge who allegedly helped a violent offender escape ICE. They have no problem with 10 million illegal immigrants who flooded the country under President Biden. But when it comes to 59 South African farmers fleeing actual persecution?

They call it racism. They shut down programs. They rage on television.

This isn’t compassion. It’s a radical ideological agenda that says borders should be open to criminals — as long as they fit the narrative — and closed to those who don’t.

It would be laughable if it weren’t so morally bankrupt.

Leftists' selective outrage reveals a disturbing truth: Their moral compass isn’t guided by justice or suffering. It’s guided by race and politics. Some victims are celebrated. Others are ignored, depending entirely on their skin color and the usefulness of their story.

America is at a crossroads. We can continue this reckless, backward approach — or we can choose sanity, security, and fairness. President Trump is trying to restore order, but the radical left is fighting him every step of the way. And if this latest circus has shown us anything, it’s that leftists are just getting started.


This article originally appeared on TheBlaze.com.