Before we begin, bask in the immense bravery our President showed yesterday by backing gay marriage right after it crossed the 50% support barrier.
But, while same sex marriage now enjoys more favorability than ever, it’s still not the gigantic election issue most in the media present it as.
Near the bottom of the list are some of the hot-button social issues. Just 28% say that gay marriage is a very important issue, and 34% rate birth control as a top issue.
Gay marriage finishes last on the priority list of Americans, even behind the completely manufactured issue of birth control—which is controversial to almost exactly no one.
But, while Obama’s announcement will surely help in fundraising, how will it affect the election in key swing states?
Swing states where it helps Obama
Colorado – gay marriage favored 53-40 in one poll, 47-40 in another
New Hampshire – gay marriage favored 51-38
Swing states where it hurts Obama
North Carolina – gay marriage opposed 61-31
Ohio – gay marriage opposed 52-32
Virginia — gay marriage opposed 53-34
Florida – gay marriage opposed 53-37, another poll 58-35
Missouri – gay marriage opposed 59-32
Indiana — Polling is sparse in Indiana on gay marriage, but most pollsters aren’t even calling this a swing state for 2012. Polls have Romney up by 9 points.
Michigan – gay marriage opposed 53-35
Swing states with little effect
Iowa — gay marriage favored 46-45
Nevada — gay marriage favored 45-44
New Mexico – gay marriage favored 45-43
Pennsylvania – gay marriage favored 52-37, another shows the opposite 51-38 opposed
Wisconsin – polling is mixed here as well, one poll shows marriage at minus 6, one shows it at plus 2, another shows it at minus 20, which seems way out of line with the others.
So, what is the result of all that? In 2008, Obama beat McCain in electoral votes 359-179. If you give Romney the one Nebraska electoral vote Obama snagged, and move the states that Obama’s new position hurts him significantly while keeping everything else the same—Romney wins the electoral vote 282-256. However, that includes a highly questionable win for Romney in Michigan. It also includes a complete sweep, with no states bucking the trend, and essentially no room for error whatsoever.
But don’t worry your pretty little head with that. Instead, enjoy the colorful beauty of a Romney victory…