Earlier this week, National Review’s Kevin Williamson joined Glenn to explain why he does not believe Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has any real chance in 2016. In Williamson’s view, Americans are not actually ready to embrace libertarianism on a national scale. On radio this morning, data analyst John Cardillo, founder and CEO of psyID, talked to Glenn about the chances of Sen. Paul, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), and others in 2016.
To begin, Glenn asked John to explain the technique psyID uses to gather data. Unlike traditional polls that call people on the phone and ask pointed questions, psyID looks at the behavior and remarks of 1,000,000 non-party affiliated Americans to get a real sense of where people stand on the issues.
“We look at hundreds of thousands of registered voters’ conversations on social media. So I like to say we far outperform traditional polling because, A, the size of our sample. We can reach tens of thousands when… a ‘large sample’ for telephone poll is 2,000,” John explained. “More importantly, we can look at a sample representing the American electorate and look at them like flies on the wall. They don't know we are watching what they are talking about, so the conversation is much more honest. And we can gauge what they really feel on social and political issues.”
While Williamson argued that libertarianism has not been effectively marketed to the American people, John has a different take.
“Guys like Ted Cruz have done a tremendous job at rebranding libertarianism,” John said. “Now it's perceived as a movement that adheres to the principles of the Constitution, the free market, and smaller government. It is no longer perceived as stoners and anarchists. It's been rebranded in a successful way and people are waking up saying this is pretty cool… So it's been rebranded successfully, and… the country is embracing it pretty warmly.”
With that in mind, one has to wonder how a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul would fair in 2016. As Glenn has explained many times before, Sens. Paul and Cruz have two very different strategies and presentations. John, however, believes there is a lot of overlap.
“So what do these guys appeal to? Would they be feasting off each other in a primary? Are there differences on who likes them? In short, not really. I think if you laid two circles over each other, it would overlap probably 75 to 80% in terms of who would gravitate towards Rand Paul and Ted Cruz,” John said. “I think image has a lot to do with it. Ted Cruz looks much more like a U.S. senator, so there are a lot of people who don't know much about him that say, ‘He looks the part, I will go with them.’ Rand Paul kind of has an atypical look for a senator. They say he's a little bit of a game changer.”
Glenn believes that “game changer” quality will be very attractive in 2016 as Americans seek out an anti-politician, anti-establishment guy.
“We just have to not fall into the trap we always do, which we get someone elected in the primaries that's completely unelectable in the national. From our analyses, Rand Paul is starting to terrify the left. He's been terrifying the mainstream GOP, and he's really starting to scare the left,” John warned. “I'm not 100% sure Hillary's going to be the candidate. I don't think her health is where they're claiming it is…. And if Cuomo was the candidate, I think Rand Paul is formidable. Cuomo is a very New York guy. Sometimes that doesn't sell well to the rest of the U.S. As a business person, I learned that.”
“I just think that people are so tired. We are all in – both sides, we are all in. We all fought hard for what we believed in, and I think what's happening is all of us on both sides realize [the politicians] don't really believe it. And so the question remains: Can you unite both sides enough,” Glenn concluded. “I think the American people will gravitate towards somebody who they says, ‘You know, I don't agree with him on everything, but I'm so tired of this bull crap. I understand a game changer. I want to change the whole game, and this guy believes it.’ I think that wins.”
Editor's Note: Cardillo also joined Glenn on TheBlaze TV last night. You can check out a portion of that interview below: