Here's Glenn's theory on where the economy is headed in 2015

On Wednesday's Glenn Beck Program, Stu laid out Glenn's theory for where the economy was headed in 2015. A lot of people are excited about declining gas prices, but is there something concerning happening below the surface?

Below is a transcript of this segment

Stu: So, here’s where I attempt to lay out what Glenn was hoping to lay out before he…well, he was laid out. Today, the economy, what can we expect going into 2015? There’s a lot of speculation about how America’s economy is set to perform this year. You’re hearing a lot of optimism about the supposed coming growth boom, and then they’re right. Are they? Is it a lot of wishful thinking?

Well, it’s true that America is inching very slowly forward at the moment. It won’t matter much if the rest of the globe tanks, as many were predicting is going to happen. We have to look ahead. We’ve got to look ahead at what’s to come.

Let’s look back first though to 2008 when the economy came crashing down. What was the root cause? Remember this fancy word? Oh, I missed all the constant conversation about derivatives, didn’t you? Mainly in the form of subprime mortgage loans. The economy was seemingly fine before that hit. Lots of people were getting rich. There were jobs, but there were warning signs—too much borrowing from people who couldn’t afford it.

Politicians didn’t care because they could use that to say Americans were owning homes for the first time. Look how successful we are in Washington. Seven years later, here we go again. Derivatives are back in the news. After the billions in bailouts, all the regulations, banks were supposed to increase transparency and reduce risk. They’ve done the exact opposite.

The top four banks are now holding $217 trillion in derivatives. That’s 93% of the total 233.9 trillion in derivatives held by all banks. In 2008, the number of all derivatives for all banks in the entire country was under $200 trillion. What possible incentive could banks have for taking on more risk?

One reason is because the bigger they get, the more important they get, and the more important they get, the more likely politicians will declare them too big to fail, and then they get all those fancy bailouts. Remember TARP, abandon the free market principles to save the free market system? Citibank seems to have taken this strategy to heart. They’ve gone from $1 trillion in derivatives to 70 trillion, surpassing J.P. Morgan as the top holder.

Pretty risky…or is it? Because jammed in the CRomnibus bill at the last minute was a measure that ensured the big banks would once again receive bailouts, putting taxpayers on the hook for their risky banking adventures again. Guess who helped craft this legislation…Citibank. So, that’s the first thing to watch. I mean, look at this graphic. On the left you see the Citibank ideas. This is what we think the bill should look like, and on the right you see what the bill actually looked like.

Now, you might say hey, wait a minute, the thing in green looks just like the other thing in green, and the thing in yellow looks like the other thing in yellow, and the thing in blue looks like the other thing in blue. The thing in grey looks like the other thing in gray, almost identical, but what you’re missing here is that the one and the two in the real bill are A and B, so there was a big change there. That’s what you elected your representatives for. They changed the one and two to A and B. This is something to watch. The big four banks now are holding 93% of all derivatives and adding more and more risk.

Next, oil…Glenn has said a million times on this program that we can’t sustain oil at $130 or $140 a barrel, but that theory works in the opposite direction as well. Oil has now fallen below $50 a barrel. Many countries have pegged their entire budgets to a much higher price of oil, and so the longer it stays below that number, the longer these countries hemorrhage cash.

So why is that bad for us? Famed investor Jeff Gundlach says…he warned of terrifying consequences. “If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be—to put it bluntly—terrifying.”

Somewhere around 15 and 20% of the junk bond market are energy-related, so when you have oil prices staying where they are for several months, which is probably likely because that’s a policy decision that some oil producers have made, some of these companies will start really running into financial troubles.

The counter argument being made is that the troubles will be confined to just the energy sector. It’s only a pocket of the economy, after all, but the problem with that argument is it’s the same freaking argument that was used about subprime mortgage loans. Because so many countries have based economies on higher oil prices, sustained low oil prices will also have a huge negative impact.

Russia is one country under enormous pressure because of this, and look, we know what Vladimir Putin is doing. He’s openly accusing America of gaming the economy to punish Russia. Leaders often start wars when there is pain and tension like this. Now, the probability of Russia starting war certainly with us is low, but I think the risk of Russia going off the reservation is much higher with oil at $55 or $45 or $40 than it was at 95 or 110.

Here’s another thing to consider, since 2007, Texas has created 1.2 million net jobs. The other 49 states have created 700,000 jobs combined. Energy is a huge factor in that growth. If the energy sector plummets, so will Texas. Since the rest of the country isn’t, you know, exactly doing so hot, we’re looking at difficult times if that happens. There’s a good chance that 2015 will be a difficult year for the global economy, and if that happens, America will become the scapegoat. But even more than America, capitalism itself will be put on trial.

Now, we all know capitalism is always on trial, but this will be the boot-on-the-neck attempt to put the final nail in the coffin. So, where does that leave freedom? Where does that leave you and me? It leaves the world in the hands of madmen, and the world begins to look a lot like it did in France this morning.

CNN reporter Jim Acosta was confronted at CPAC by The Federalist reporter David Marcus with a valid question: "When are you guys going to start covering Cuomo?" His answer — or, really, lack of an answer — perfectly demonstrates why he was earlier surrounded by CPAC attendees chanting, "CNN sucks!"

On the "Glenn Beck Radio Program" Tuesday, Glenn and producer Stu Burguiere react to a video clip of the exchange with Acosta, as well as the mainstream media's double standards when it comes to Democratic New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Watch the video below:

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Glenn Beck can't help but wonder, "What is wrong with us?" in light of the Left's latest move — canceling six Dr. Seuss books due to "hurtful and wrong" illustrations — that takes America one step closer to complete insanity. And now, school districts are jumping on board after President Joe Biden seems to have dropped Dr. Seuss from the White House's annual "Read Across America Day" proclamation.

On the radio program Tuesday, Glenn argued that deleting books is the perfect example of fascism, and asked when we as a country will finally realize it.

"They are banning Dr. Seuss books. How much more do you need to see before all of America wakes up? ... This is fascism!" Glenn said. "We don't destroy books. What is wrong with us, America?"

Watch the video below to hear more from Glenn:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Former Democratic presidential candidate and Hawaii representative Tulsi Gabbard and Glenn Beck don't agree much on policy, but they're in lockstep on principles.

On "The Glenn Beck Podcast" this week, Tulsi spoke with Glenn about one of her last acts in Congress, introducing the "Protect Women's Sports Act," which she says would "strengthen, clarify, and uphold the intent of Title IX to provide a level playing field for girls and women in sports." But since then, the Biden administration has gone in the opposite direction, and has supported allowing biological men to compete in women's sports.

Watch the video clip below to hear why Tulsi took a stand for female athletes:


Watch the full interview with Tulsi Gabbard here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Later this week, former President Trump will attend CPAC and give his first major policy appearance since leaving office. Sources close to the President reveal he will focus on "the future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement."

The future of the GOP is a question that demands real discussion before elections in 2022 and 2024. Right now, I can see three possible answers for how you act:

  1. Those in power and senior positions will ignore the reasons behind Donald Trump winning in 2016. They will be vindicated in their minds because they outlasted him, as they view DC as a job for life. These leaders will go back to business as usual and seek forgiveness from the left, hoping for unity and acceptance in the future.
  2. The second outcome is another section of the party that is understandably very angry over the left's Presidents treatment. They still support and believe in Trump. They think it's time to take off the gloves and treat Biden/the left exactly how they treated Trump.
  3. The few policy positions offered in public will be centered solely around opposing the left. They will also make the case how the left suck, are dangerous, and how you need them in power. The next four years are merely a countdown for Trump to run again and right the wrong of 2020.
  4. The third outcome is very similar to the second, but with one key difference. While they appreciate everything Trump accomplished while in office, they feel it's time to unite behind another candidate.
Question

Which of these three positions will work best for the American people? Which helps built a political base for elections in both 2022 and 2024?

If you seek to help save America, it is critical to do some soul searching. Whether you love or hate him, Donald Trump got 75 million votes and made advancements in key demographics. What did he do well that you can develop further? In what areas was he poor, and how can you improve?

I want to raise six principled points everyone on the right should be forced to consider in the run-up to 2024.

1 - Understanding American Exceptionalism

FACT: America is an exceptional nation. If you read enough of world history, you will find ample evidence that America acted in ways that made it unique and significantly different from other countries in the past and modern times. These reasons must be understood and promoted through the culture and body politic.

One of those reasons is the layout of your Declaration of Independence. If you look around politics today, you will see people on all political sides telling you what they hate, why the other side is the enemy, and how they must be defeated.

In the Declaration of Independence, Jefferson also made that case against the English when he listed 27 grievances against the King. So how is the layout key? It took Jefferson 357 words to get to those grievances. Your Declaration is your mission statement: it tells everyone in the world what America aspires to be. It states the belief that all were created equal, all had certain rights that come directly from God, and that it is the government's job to protect rights -- not give people rights.

The left is successfully painting everyone on the right to be a terrorist who enjoyed the Capitol Hill riots. If you ever want to win another election, it will be critical to explain what you stand for to the American people.

After all, ask yourself which makes you the most passionate to vote - removing someone from office or voting for a vision and change you believe in?

2 - The Constitution

Is there a better place to start this vision than the Constitution? Yes, it is mostly ignored today by those in power and is only referenced by politicians and media when it fits a narrative.

The Constitution is a beautiful and complex document but is primarily based on a straightforward principle. The government should be extremely limited in its power, but it should be as close to the people as possible where there is a clear need for government. Who can argue with this principle?

Who wants someone they have never met, dictating how they live their life?

This is why the Constitution grants the President no real power, and gives Congress 18 clauses of power, listed under Article 1, Section 8. Any and every power not mentioned there belongs at the state level.

3 - Finances

The power structure in DC has changed many times over the last twenty years, with both parties having the opportunity to rule the different federal branches. There have been two periods where one party controlled all the power in DC:

  • 2008-2010: Obama / Dem
  • 2016-2018: Trump / GOP

Despite these changes, your government continually grows, you continue to spend money you don't have, and in ten out of the last thirteen years, you have added over $1,000,000,000,000 to your national debt, which now sits just under $28 trillion. Does this seem sustainable to you? Of course not, but sadly your finances only get worse.

America has revenue of over $3.2 trillion every year, yet DC has not passed a budget since 2008. Can you imagine any business running that way? Do you think Apple, Amazon, or Disney have a budget? It is time to get America on a path to financial sustainability, work towards a balanced budget, and explain to the American people how you will achieve it.

4 - Taxes

Do you remember discussing taxes during the Tea Party?

We used to make the simple moral case to the American people: any money you earn is yours, you should use it to plan your life, and the government has no right to take it from you. This was so successful around 2012 that Herman Cain ran for President with one primary policy: the 9-9-9 plan.

If America is to return to prosperity after Covid, lower taxes and a simpler tax code must be a central theme.

5 - Cutting Government

Look at the size of the US government in 2021. Are you happy? Can you name the numerous departments? Is it now the freedom-loving Americans' position that agencies like Education, Energy, EPA, and Commerce are constitutional bodies of government and are well-run?

How about the IRS, which targeted Tea-Party groups under President Obama? Do they deserve support, or is it time to start sharing a vision of the departments that should be abolished?

This principle used to be a big part of the Conservative platform. It played a massive role in 2012 when Rick Perry ran for President. His campaign was destroyed in 45 short seconds when he could not remember the three agencies he would abolish.

Maybe it's time to refresh this debate but change the parameters. How about we discuss the agencies that should be kept?

6 - Bill of Rights

Today, the Bill of Rights is under constant attack. The far-left/woke mob hates free speech, and they seek to cancel anyone with an opposing view. However, the attacks on the Bill of Rights don't always come from the left.

America has a second amendment that guarantees you the right to bear arms. The last time the GOP held both houses of Congress and the Presidency, they banned bump stocks - but who really NEEDS a bump stock?

As the years have passed, some have admitted they are open to red flag laws. Is this still the case?

While the second amendment may be under attack, it is clear the fourth amendment is dead. Regardless of which party holds power in DC, the NSA is given continuous ability to spy on Americans. The simple, principled case from Rand Paul of "get a warrant" always falls on deaf ears.

The Bill of Rights should be a unifying document for most Americans, as the principles are self-evident and a significant part of any freedom platform going forward.

Conclusion

America will face significant challenges over the coming years. As the government continues to grow, the far left get more hostile, and central planners seek a great reset. If you share my concern, then now is the time to forget our tribes and ignore the debate on who should be President in 2024.

It's time to work hard to build a platform by raising a banner of bold colors, not pale pastels. We must share a clear vision to the American people of a bright future where they are free, prosperous, and can pursue their happiness.

When the platform is built and successful, people can identify the best candidate to run in 2024.

"First, you win the argument, and then you win the election." — Margaret Thatcher

Jonathon Dunne is a keynote speaker, weekly podcast host on Blaze Media, and published author on major platforms such as The Blaze, Glenn Beck, Libertarian Republic, Western Journalism, and Constitution. Since 2012, he has reached millions with his message of American exceptionalism.

You can find him on social media – Facebook, Twitter, MeWe