The Kondratiev Wave (You Won't See This at the Super Bowl)

February 05, 2016

Writer

Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev was Stalin's chief economist. He studied capitalism, identifying and coining what's called the Kondratiev wave. The wave represents the cycles of an economy in seasonal terms --- spring, summer, winter, fall and the green shoots.

Spring is all about new ideas, change. During summer, things get a little relaxed, lazy. In the fall, leaves start to die and then transition into a winter --- a recession or depression. And then, spring again, the green shoots --- new ideas --- start to sprout up.

That's exactly how America once worked.

"If you look back at the American wave, up until the Fed, those were happening about every ten to 20 years," Glenn said Friday on The Glenn Beck Program. "And you see that we were going through very short, less than-a-year depressions. And everything would crash --- come crashing down. And then there would be this depression where everybody would be like, 'Oh, my gosh. I'm out of money.' But within a year, things started going up again."

When the government became too involved, choosing winners and losers, it interrupted the natural flow of things. Problems didn't corrected fully and purely.

"Every time we try to get government involved to slow it down, what it does is it adds a layer of corruption and allows people to be more and more stupid and not pay for their sins," Glenn said. "It allows for corruption to happen in the banking system and never have to pay for it. Because somebody will bail you out. There's no real cost to that."

The solution is smaller government.

"That's why we have to get off of the Fed. That's why we have to get back to the Constitution," Glenn said. "That's why we have to get back to a real free system."

Listen to this segment from The Glenn Beck Program:

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: Yeah. Okay. Why? Why?

If you go back and you look and you look at the Kondratiev wave, which is the spring, summer, winter, fall, the green shoots. Okay. This was Kondratiev. He was Stalin's chief economist, and he went back and looked at capitalism.

JEFFY: Pat and I were just talking about the Kondratiev wave.

GLENN: Shut up.

PAT: We were doing that documentary on Kondratiev a while ago. Remember that?

JEFFY: Right! And it goes up and down with the green shoots.

GLENN: Just let me know when you're done.

PAT: Okay. I think we're done.

GLENN: Okay. Good.

So the Kondratiev wave where the spring comes. New ideas. And people start to -- kind of like tech industry. Okay. New ideas. New things are happening. And you can see these green shoots that, oh, my gosh, everything is going to change. But then it kind of settles in, in the summer, where all of these companies get fat, they get sassy, they get lazy. And they're like, "You know what, we're going to be here forever."

Then you start to see autumn. And you start to see the leaves change, and the seasons change. And you're like, "You know what, something is going to fold here. Something is not right." And everybody hanging on and hangs on and hangs on, until all the leaves are gone. And then it's in the winter. And it hammers into winter, which is a recession or a depression.

Then it balances things out, and you start to see green shoots again. Well, if you look back at the American wave, up until the Fed, those were happening about every ten to 20 years. And you see that we were going through very short, less than-a-year depressions. And everything would crash -- come crashing down. And then there would be this depression where everybody would be like, "Oh, my gosh. I'm out of money." But within a year, things started going up again. Okay?

It's like burning the underbrush of a forest. You have to burn an underbrush, otherwise the entire forest will burn down.

This is what the fed was to do. The fed was to stop those depressions and those giant spikes. Well, they didn't, did they? They've spaced them out farther, but they've made them bigger. So the -- we never had a Great Depression before. We had depressions. 1920 was a depression deeper than 1933. 1929, 1933, deeper than the Great Depression. But because we didn't have the Fed -- the Fed was not prepared to turn all the levers. It was over within a year, and it led to the Roaring Twenties.

So every time we try to get government involved to slow it down, what it does is it adds a layer of corruption and allows people to be more and more stupid and not pay for their sins. It allows for corruption to happen in the banking system and never have to pay for it. Because somebody will bail you out. There's no real cost to that.

That's why we have to get off of the Fed. That's why we have to get back to the Constitution. That's why we have to get back to a real free system. And a real free system doesn't include special payments to the government so they can prop up a certain company.

When he talks about, you know, the drug companies and you can't do anything about it, his solution is, control the drug company. Well, that will lead to less and less innovation and ground-breaking drugs. So his idea is, let's control it. Instead, what you should do is get the drug companies out of the lobbying business entirely. There shouldn't be the lobbying business in Washington.

When you start to have these big companies lobby -- why were the drug companies, why were the insurance companies for Obamacare? How is that possible?

PAT: Because --

GLENN: It was good for them.

PAT: Yeah. Big-time good for them.

GLENN: It was good for them. It's bad for us. But their lobbyists got in and made it good for the elites and for the companies. And we all lost. That's why you have to clean up the corruption. And the only way to clean up the corruption is to make the government small enough to where it doesn't matter. It stays out and lets people do their own thing. And you let those companies rise and fall. If somebody is going to screw the public -- yes, people are going to get screwed. People are going to get hurt. But it will happen, and it will happen quickly. And the government's job is to put those people in jail, period.

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The Woodrow Wilson strategy to get out of Mother’s Day

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I’ve got a potentially helpful revelation that’s gonna blow the lid off your plans for this Sunday. It’s Mother’s Day.

Yeah, that sacred day where you’re guilt-tripped into buying flowers, braving crowded brunch buffets, and pretending you didn’t forget to mail the card. But what if I told you… you don’t have to do it? That’s right, there’s a loophole, a get-out-of-Mother’s-Day-free card, and it’s stamped with the name of none other than… Woodrow Wilson (I hate that guy).

Back in 1914, ol’ Woody Wilson signed a proclamation that officially made Mother’s Day a national holiday. Second Sunday in May, every year. He said it was a day to “publicly express our love and reverence for the mothers of our country.” Sounds sweet, right? Until you peel back the curtain.

See, Wilson wasn’t some sentimental guy sitting around knitting doilies for his mom. No, no, no. This was a calculated move.

The idea for Mother’s Day had been floating around for decades, pushed by influential voices like Julia Ward Howe. By 1911, states were jumping on the bandwagon, but it took Wilson to make it federal. Why? Because he was a master of optics. This guy loved big, symbolic gestures to distract from the real stuff he was up to, like, oh, I don’t know, reshaping the entire federal government!

So here’s the deal: if you’re looking for an excuse to skip Mother’s Day, just lean into this. Say, “Sorry, Mom, I’m not celebrating a holiday cooked up by Woodrow Wilson!” I mean, think about it – this is the guy who gave us the Federal Reserve, the income tax, and don’t even get me started on his assault on basic liberties during World War I. You wanna trust THAT guy with your Sunday plans? I don’t think so! You tell your mom, “Look, I love you, but I’m not observing a Progressive holiday. I’m keeping my brunch money in protest.”

Now, I know what you might be thinking.

“Glenn, my mom’s gonna kill me if I try this.” Fair point. Moms can be scary. But hear me out: you can spin this. Tell her you’re honoring her EVERY DAY instead of some government-mandated holiday. You don’t need Wilson’s permission to love your mom! You can bake her a cake in June, call her in July, or, here’s a wild idea, visit her WITHOUT a Woodrow Wilson federal proclamation guilting you into it.

Silent genocide exposed: Are christians being wiped out in 2025?

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Is a Christian Genocide unfolding overseas?

Recent reports suggest an alarming escalation in violence against Christians, raising questions about whether these acts constitute genocide under international law. Recently, Glenn hosted former U.S. Army Special Forces Sniper Tim Kennedy, who discussed a predictive model that forecasts a surge in global Christian persecution for the summer of 2025.

From Africa to Asia and the Middle East, extreme actions—some described as genocidal—have intensified over the past year. Over 380 million Christians worldwide face high levels of persecution, a number that continues to climb. With rising international concern, the United Nations and human rights groups are urging protective measures by the global community. Is a Christian genocide being waged in the far corners of the globe? Where are they taking place, and what is being done?

India: Hindu Extremist Violence Escalates

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In India, attacks on Christians have surged as Hindu extremist groups gain influence within the country. In February 2025, Hindu nationalist leader Aadesh Soni organized a 50,000-person rally in Chhattisgarh, where he called for the rape and murder of all Christians in nearby villages and demanded the execution of Christian leaders to erase Christianity. Other incidents include forced conversions, such as a June 2024 attack in Chhattisgarh, where a Hindu mob gave Christian families a 10-day ultimatum to convert to Hinduism. In December 2024, a Christian man in Uttar Pradesh was attacked, forcibly converted, and paraded while the mob chanted "Death to Jesus."

The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) recommends designating India a "Country of Particular Concern" and imposing targeted sanctions on those perpetrating these attacks. The international community is increasingly alarmed by the rising tide of religious violence in India.

Syria: Sectarian Violence Post-Regime Change

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Following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, Syria has seen a wave of sectarian violence targeting religious minorities, including Christians, with over 1,000 killed in early 2025. It remains unclear whether Christians are deliberately targeted or caught in broader conflicts, but many fear persecution by the new regime or extremist groups. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a dominant rebel group and known al-Qaeda splinter group now in power, is known for anti-Christian sentiments, heightening fears of increased persecution.

Christians, especially converts from Islam, face severe risks in the unstable post-regime environment. The international community is calling for humanitarian aid and protection for Syria’s vulnerable minority communities.

Democratic Republic of Congo: A "Silent Genocide"

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In February 2025, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an ISIS-affiliated group, beheaded 70 Christians—men, women, and children—in a Protestant church in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo, after tying their hands. This horrific massacre, described as a "silent genocide" reminiscent of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, has shocked the global community.

Since 1996, the ADF and other militias have killed over six million people, with Christians frequently targeted. A Christmas 2024 attack killed 46, further decimating churches in the region. With violence escalating, humanitarian organizations are urging immediate international intervention to address the crisis.

POLL: Starbase exposed: Musk’s vision or corporate takeover?

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Is Starbase the future of innovation or a step too far?

Elon Musk’s ambitious Starbase project in South Texas is reshaping Boca Chica into a cutting-edge hub for SpaceX’s Starship program, promising thousands of jobs and a leap toward Mars colonization. Supporters see Musk as a visionary, driving economic growth and innovation in a historically underserved region. However, local critics, including Brownsville residents and activists, argue that SpaceX’s presence raises rents, restricts beach access, and threatens environmental harm, with Starbase’s potential incorporation as a city sparking fears of unchecked corporate control. As pro-Musk advocates clash with anti-Musk skeptics, will Starbase unite the community or deepen the divide?

Let us know what you think in the poll below:

Is Starbase’s development a big win for South Texas?

Should Starbase become its own city?

Is Elon Musk’s vision more of a benefit than a burden for the region?

Shocking truth behind Trump-Zelenskyy mineral deal unveiled

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President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have finalized a landmark agreement that will shape the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations. The agreement focuses on mineral access and war recovery.

After a tense March meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy signed a deal on Wednesday, April 30, 2025, granting the U.S. preferential mineral rights in Ukraine in exchange for continued military support. Glenn analyzed an earlier version of the agreement in March, when Zelenskyy rejected it, highlighting its potential benefits for America, Ukraine, and Europe. Glenn praised the deal’s strategic alignment with U.S. interests, including reducing reliance on China for critical minerals and fostering regional peace.

However, the agreement signed this week differs from the March proposal Glenn praised. Negotiations led to significant revisions, reflecting compromises on both sides. What changes were made? What did each leader seek, and what did they achieve? How will this deal impact the future of U.S.-Ukraine relations and global geopolitics? Below, we break down the key aspects of the agreement.

What did Trump want?

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Trump aimed to curb what many perceive as Ukraine’s overreliance on U.S. aid while securing strategic advantages for America. His primary goals included obtaining reimbursement for the billions in military aid provided to Ukraine, gaining exclusive access to Ukraine’s valuable minerals (such as titanium, uranium, and lithium), and reducing Western dependence on China for critical resources. These minerals are essential for aerospace, energy, and technology sectors, and Trump saw their acquisition as a way to bolster U.S. national security and economic competitiveness. Additionally, he sought to advance peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, positioning the U.S. as a key mediator.

Ultimately, Trump secured preferential—but not exclusive—rights to extract Ukraine’s minerals through the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, as outlined in the agreement. The U.S. will not receive reimbursement for past aid, but future military contributions will count toward the joint fund, designed to support Ukraine’s post-war recovery. Zelenskyy’s commitment to peace negotiations under U.S. leadership aligns with Trump’s goal of resolving the conflict, giving him leverage in discussions with Russia.

These outcomes partially meet Trump’s objectives. The preferential mineral rights strengthen U.S. access to critical resources, but the lack of exclusivity and reimbursement limits the deal’s financial benefits. The peace commitment, however, positions Trump as a central figure in shaping the war’s resolution, potentially enhancing his diplomatic influence.

What did Zelenskyy want?

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Zelenskyy sought to sustain U.S. military and economic support without the burden of repaying past aid, which has been critical for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. He also prioritized reconstruction funds to rebuild Ukraine’s war-torn economy and infrastructure. Security guarantees from the U.S. to deter future Russian aggression were a key demand, though controversial, as they risked entangling America in long-term commitments. Additionally, Zelenskyy aimed to retain control over Ukraine’s mineral wealth to safeguard national sovereignty and align with the country’s European Union membership aspirations.

The final deal delivered several of Zelenskyy’s priorities. The reconstruction fund, supported by future U.S. aid, provides a financial lifeline for Ukraine’s recovery without requiring repayment of past assistance. Ukraine retained ownership of its subsoil and decision-making authority over mineral extraction, granting only preferential access to the U.S. However, Zelenskyy conceded on security guarantees, a significant compromise, and agreed to pursue peace talks under Trump’s leadership, which may involve territorial or political concessions to Russia.

Zelenskyy’s outcomes reflect a delicate balance. The reconstruction fund and retained mineral control bolster Ukraine’s economic and sovereign interests, but the absence of security guarantees and pressure to negotiate peace could strain domestic support and challenge Ukraine’s long-term stability.

What does this mean for the future?

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While Trump didn’t secure all his demands, the deal advances several of his broader strategic goals. By gaining access to Ukraine’s mineral riches, the U.S. undermines China’s dominance over critical elements like lithium and graphite, essential for technology and energy industries. This shift reduces American and European dependence on Chinese supply chains, strengthening Western industrial and tech sectors. Most significantly, the agreement marks a pivotal step toward peace in Europe. Ending the Russia-Ukraine war, which has claimed thousands of lives, is a top priority for Trump, and Zelenskyy’s commitment to U.S.-led peace talks enhances Trump’s leverage in negotiations with Russia. Notably, the deal avoids binding U.S. commitments to Ukraine’s long-term defense, preserving flexibility for future administrations.

The deal’s broader implications align with the vision Glenn outlined in March, when he praised its potential to benefit America, Ukraine, and Europe by securing resources and creating peace. While the final agreement differs from Glenn's hopes, it still achieves key goals he outlined.

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