Brokered Convention: Everything You Need to Know

Sean Trende joined The Glenn Beck Program on Wednesday to explain just how a brokered or contested convention might work and broke down how he sees the rest of the GOP primary playing out.

Trende is the senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics and knows his stuff better than just about anybody.

Listen to the segment from radio or read the transcript below.

The Math is the Math

GLENN: Okay. And, Sean, you're not a political guy. You're just here to tell us how this system works, right?

SEAN: Yeah, that's right. I can't lie and say I don't have strong feelings about some of these candidates. But at the end of the day, I try to be a data guy. The math is the math. And the way we think this thing is going to pan out, you know, it's just driven by the rules and the math.

GLENN: Can anybody actually get to the convention with enough delegates to actually win it outright? Can they?

SEAN: They can. And the fact that John Kasich is going to stay in the Republican race going forward does help Donald Trump do that. But it's by no means a guaranteed thing that this is going to happen. I'd say there's probably a 50/50 shot that no one gets the delegates they need to avoid a contested convention.

GLENN: If Kasich was out, would Cruz have an equal shot at getting the delegates, do you think?

SEAN: Yeah. I think if Kasich had said, you know what, I did what I needed to do in Ohio, but there's no path to the nomination, you know, I'm going to use my 66 delegates to try to be the vice presidential nominee.

If you look at the exit polls, they ask head-to-head questions. In Michigan, Cruz came out ahead of Trump in a two-person race. He almost certainly would have won North Carolina and Missouri. So, yeah, without Kasich, Cruz's path looks much better.

Understanding the Rules

GLENN: Okay. So tell me, what are the rules, can they actually bring somebody in from the outside like this and expect us not to rebel?

SEAN: Yes, they can bring someone in from the outside after the first ballot. But, no, I think especially someone like Jeb Bush who was soundly rejected by the Republican electorate, it would be suicide to have him come in and, surprise! I'm the nominee.

GLENN: Kasich actually thinks he's going to be the president of the United States. He's not not even close. He's not even close. How are they thinking that they're going to manipulate these numbers to be able to get a winner that we could all coalesce around?

SEAN: Yeah. I don't know what Kasich is thinking. I live in Ohio. And it's not surprising to me. But he's -- he's wrong, if he thinks he's going to be the nominee.

Look, I think the idea of Ryan or somebody like that -- look, if we can get to Cleveland and this thing goes five or six ballots and nobody can pull together a majority, in the past, that's where dark horse candidates have emerged. But there's not going to be a scenario where we have the first ballot and then Paul Ryan pops out on the second ballot. Something like that only happens if there's just no way to come to terms with -- between the two candidates who have a reasonable number of delegates.

The Power of Delegating: Explaining the Voting Process

STU: Sean, can you explain the process here? Like, Rubio has 180 delegates, let's say. So they get to the convention. Does he still control those delegates? What happens to those? How does the bargaining process go when it comes to that -- when we get to the actual contested convention?

SEAN: So all this stuff is determined by the states. You know, some states don't have bound delegates at all. From the very first day, they can vote for whoever they want. And some states -- so the primary is just kind of what we call a beauty contest so that people can get a sense of where their state stands up.

Some states bind their delegates for more than one ballot, so on the second and third ballot, they still have to vote for the person. So Rubio can endorse someone. There are some states where he can instruct his delegates to vote for someone else.

STU: So after that first ballot, essentially these delegates in most cases get to do what they want to do. But the thought is that they probably would follow the lead of a Rubio or a Kasich?

SEAN: That's right. And, again, we get into the real nitty-gritty, some states these delegates have been hand-selected by the candidates. So in Ohio, the delegates are Kasich regulars. So they're more likely to listen to him.

In some states, they're just kind of like party officials. You know, the state committee chairman and the large counties. They don't have any loyalty to any candidate outside of what the rules say they have to do on the first ballot. So there it's free agents.

A Close Second Can Come in First

GLENN: So can I ask -- this is a really stupid question. Let's say it's -- I don't know, 1100 for Trump and, you know, 950 for Cruz. And we get to the second ballot or whatever.

How does Cruz not win that when it comes to, we've got a guy who is really close to Donald Trump? How does he not get those extra delegates, just 200 delegates just to push him over the top, especially if Marco Rubio is saying, I strongly urge you, you know? Or, I'm the vice president on that ticket, vote for Cruz.

SEAN: Right.

GLENN: How does he not win that?

SEAN: There are no stupid questions. And that's actually a very smart question.

GLENN: Oh, that's usually what people say when there's a stupid question.

SEAN: No, that is a very smart question. It is the question. Like, there is a point -- like, Donald Trump, if he walks in with 1236 delegates, is still going to be the nominee. But there is a point where, you're right. Like, especially since these delegates are by and large party regulars who have not been favorably inclined towards Donald Trump. You know, I think if Trump is at 1100 delegates, I think you sketched it out exactly right. There will be the first ballot. And then on the second ballot, they will break towards Cruz. But he has to be a substantial amount behind 1237 for that to occur.

GLENN: And what is that number, do you think? 1100?

GLENN: Because we got him unfortunately at 1139 in just doing a back of the paper. Today, we got him at 1139. So you think that's close enough that they'll just say, "He gets it?"

SEAN: You know, so 1139 would be almost exactly 100. You know, now my personal feelings come into it, and I'll say no.

But, you know, like there isn't a bright line, right? But I think 100 is where you start to say, you know, it's probably not going to be Trump being -- but conventions are just funny things. And they have been historically, whenever -- that's why we have these binding rules to keep them from being funny things. It's going to be weird, and it's going to be great for page views and listenership.

Who Runs the Show in a Brokered Convention?

GLENN: Okay. So tell me this: Who puts the convention together? Going into it, usually the nominee is helping pick the speakers and help build the platform and everything else. What happens here?

SEAN: That's another very good question. As you say, historically, you have a presumptive nominee, and the RNC just kind of turns the keys over and gives a bank account to the winning candidacy. But this time, the RNC is going to have to run it. They're going to have to plan it out. And they're going to have to try to plan it out the way it's at least perceived as fair. And that's a really tall task.

GLENN: We look at John Kasich and say, "He just doesn't get it. What delusional world is he living in?" But can I ask the same question -- and I'd love to hear your opinion, if you have one. What delusional world does the G.O.P. come from right now, where Mitch McConnell came out and said, "Hey, you know, maybe we'll throw our support behind Ted Cruz if he apologizes to me?" It was -- it was so clear last night that between Cruz and Trump, the establishment is rejected by the vast majority of people.

Where are they? Where are their heads? What's it going to take for them to start saying, "Hey, maybe I should start listening to the people?"

SEAN: You know, that's a very good question. I mean, this is to a certain degree the G.O.P. establishment's fault. Both in some of the ways they've behaved over the past six years, some major -- ten years really. Some major miscalculations on their part with legislation they've signed on to. I don't know what it's going to take for them to get it. Because it's pretty obvious that, like, your choice is Ted Cruz or Donald Trump. You don't demand that Ted Cruz apologize right now.

The Rubio Effect

STU: We were using this sort of this back-of-the-envelope math, where it's about four to one; they go to Cruz over Trump. Is that what you've seen in exit polls? And you think that that's something that goes forward in the same sort of way?

SEAN: Yeah, it's like I said, these exit polls have asked follow-up questions. So if it were just Cruz and Trump, who would you vote for? And we find that Trump gets almost no increase. No improvement in his showings in those questions.

So, yeah, if Rubio had dropped out two weeks ago or even a week ago, you know, he still would have lost Florida because of all the early voting. But last night would have looked very different.

GLENN: What about Kasich? If he would get out, who do his people break for?

SEAN: Again, his voters are disproportionately post graduate education, live in suburbs, you know, make over $200,000 a year. I don't know that -- I think a lot of them just stay home, quite frankly. But to the extent that they break, I think they break disproportionately for Cruz. They're the antithesis of Trump voters.

Featured Image: Caption:The West side of the US Capitol Building is seen in this May 1, 2012 photo in Washington, DC. AFP PHOTO / Karen BLEIER (Photo credit should read KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images)

Elon Musk calls Biden a 'damp sock puppet,' says the president treats Americans 'like fools'

Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images

Elon Musk, co-founder and CEO of Tesla, took to Twitter on Thursday to remind President Joe Biden that he left a certain key player out of a discussion about the future of building electric vehicles in the United States.

After meeting with General Motors Chair and CEO Mary Barra and Ford Motor Co. CEO Jim Farley, among others — but not including Musk — at the White House, Biden tweeted, "I meant it when I said the future was going to be made right here in America. Companies like GM and Ford are building more electric vehicles here at home than ever before."

Musk first responded by tweeting, "Starts with a T, Ends with an A, ESL in the middle."

Later in the thread, Musk seemed to agree with Twitter user Kim Paquette by tweeting: "Biden is treating the American public like fools."

Finally, Musk tweeted his pièce de résistance (at least for the day): "Biden is a damp [sock] puppet in human form."

This isn't the first time Musk has taken issue with the current administration. In December, he railed against Biden's "Build Back Better Act", saying he's deeply concerned about how the multitrillion-dollar bill would increase the national debt. In October, Musk slammed the administration's proposed tax on unrealized capital gains, warning Americans that "eventually, they run out of other people's money and then they come for you."

And who could forget Musk's spectacular Twitter spat with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass)? In case you missed it, Warren called Musk a freeloader after Time magazine named him "Person of the Year." Musk shot back with, "If you opened your eyes for 2 seconds, you would realize I will pay more taxes than any American in history this year. Don’t spend it all at once … oh wait you did already."

On his radio program Thursday, BlazeTV's Glenn Beck spoke out in Musk's defense. He praised Musk's "American spirit," noting the South African-born American entrepreneur's humble beginnings.

"Do you know that when Elon Musk and his brother launched their first company, Zip2, Elon was living in his office and he was showering at the YMCA? Did you know that? But he was in America. He's got more American spirit in him than most people I see every day. He's gone from showering at the YMCA to now mapping out a trip to Mars and he'll do it. Why? Because he has that American spirit in him."

Watch the video below to hear more from Glenn Beck:

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When Biden was given the keys to the Oval Office in January 2021, gas was $2.50 a gallon and the inflation rate was 1.4%. Today gas is at $3.32 a gallon and the inflation rate is at 7% ... and STILL RISING. These are just 12 months of numbers, but we’re clearly in a worrying decline. While the economy has opened up more post-COVID, it’s not just getting worse — we’re going IN REVERSE.

On "Glenn TV" Wednesday, Glenn Beck heads to the chalkboard (and the very top of his studio ceiling) to explain what’s happening to inflation and why it’s so hard for your family to afford basic goods and groceries. It’s not “corporate greed,” as Democrats have been telling you. The Biden administration wants to continue to spend trillions of dollars to “reinvent capitalism,” but that’s in addition to the trillions that are being pumped out IN THE SHADOWS.

Glenn exposes what the Fed has been doing behind closed doors and shows us the tidal wave that’s about to hit. He’s looked at the numbers, and they're frightening. Carol Roth, former Wall Street investment banker and author of “The War on Small Business,” gives advice to Americans who want to protect their checking and savings accounts before it’s too late.

Watch the full episode below:

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The stock markets have taken a nosedive in the biggest downtrend since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. But that's nothing compared to what's coming thanks to our government's embrace of modern monetary theory, warned BlazeTV's Glenn Beck on the radio program.

"It really is important that you understand what's happening to us," Glenn stated. "Modern monetary theory is truly the [fuel] ... for the great reset. It is the idea that we can print as much money and spend as much money as we want," he explained.

"Then the next step is to release the Federal Reserve digital currency and make payments by other currencies [including cryptocurrencies] illegal," he continued. "And you're seeing it happen now in real time. Why would they do this? Because you cannot print this kind of money without having absolute control over how it is spent."

Glenn broke down the steps powerful political organizations — like the Federal Reserve — will take to end currency competition and enact a Federal digital dollar, which will allow for the government to have complete control over how we spend our money.

"This is what's coming. This is coming quickly, and events will make it move faster. For instance, why is Joe Biden basically giving Ukraine to Russia? He's giving it to them. He he knows Russia's not afraid of him. Putin knows that [Biden] is not going to do anything ... neither is NATO. They're not going to do anything," Glenn said.

"It's because war resets everything. War is the best great resetter. Changes boundaries. It changes borders. It changes laws. It changes societies. It changes currencies. It changes everything. And in the end you just want the war to stop. And so you you accept whatever it is the terms are that you're going to have to live under now. We're in very, very dangerous times. The only way to survive this is to know why they are dangerous times."

Watch the video clip below to hear more from Glenn Beck:

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Chances are, you've noticed that many large companies have decided to become woke activists, despite the fact that alienating half your customer base is a terrible business strategy.

This woke shift isn't being driven by the usual market forces. It's the Great Reset's ESG score system at work, Glenn Beck said on "GlennTV." Under the “environmental, social, and governance” score system, companies will no longer make decisions based on what you, the consumer, want. Now, it's all about what those in power deem society should want. And it's not just businesses that are affected, he explained.

Watch the video clip below or find the full episode of "GlennTV" here:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.