Excerpt from Politico
Presented by Taylor Gee
When Nate Silver started examining presidential polls in 2007, it marked the beginning of a new era in political forecasting. Frustrated by what he saw as lazy reporting of dubious surveys, Silver set to work applying his statistical acumen to the 2008 presidential election. That March, he launched a site, FiveThirtyEight, where he weighted polls based on their track record and developed a forecasting model based on historical trends and current data—correctly predicting the results 49 out of 50 states in that November’s Obama-McCain election.
Smart statistics had triumphed over uncertainty, and never again would the American people have to be needlessly surprised.