Election by Numbers: Does Trump Have a Real Shot?

Does Donald Trump have a legitimate chance to win the White House based on polls? Stu Burguiere, co-host of The Glenn Beck Program, analyzed the current numbers and the 10 most competitive states in play.

It Ain't Your Father's 1988

"Stu, can you give me the latest polls that have come out?" Glenn asked.

"There was an NBC poll that came out today that had Trump down 10. Monmouth poll had him down, I think, 13," Stu said.

"Jeez. That's new last night too, isn't it?" Glenn asked.

"Yeah, I think yesterday," Stu replied.

RELATED: Even Conservatives Are Appalled That Trump Said ‘Second Amendment People’ Could Stop Hillary

Pennsylvania also had Trump down 10. In Georgia, one poll had him down by one and another by four.

"He loses Georgia, he doesn't win," Glenn said.

Glenn and Stu could think of only one election when a candidate that far behind wound up winning. In June 1988, Michael Dukakis had a 15-point lead over George H.W. Bush and lost.

"Dukakis lost for a couple of reasons: He lost because of that stupid helmet in the tank thing and the Willie Horton ad," Glenn said.

"It was a different media culture too," Stu added. "An event like that tended to be more effective than I think it is now. I mean, who knows what's going to happen. I would think in the Dukakis/Bush race, if the father of a mass murderer was sitting behind the candidate in a rally, it probably would have been a huge deal," Stu said.

Let's Play Electoral College

"We're going to play electoral college. Most people don't understand, especially people from Latin America, they don't understand our electoral college. They just go on popular vote, so they don't get it. And it will be easy to convince them that they've been disenfranchised," Glenn said.

"So here are the ten most competitive states as it stands right now, and I'll lead with the most friendly to Trump. You try to be positive for Trump when we do this. Try to lean Trump," Stu said to Glenn.

Here's how Glenn thought the states would go, generously leaning toward Trump:

Mississippi: Trump

Arizona: Trump

Georgia: Trump

North Carolina: Trump

Ohio: Trump

Florida: Trump

Iowa: Trump

Nevada: Trump

New Mexico: Hillary

New Hampshire: Hillary

"Hillary wins. Even with him winning eight of those ten states, Hillary still wins," Stu said.

"There's no way to win," Glenn said. "The deadline is Friday. We have to draft somebody . . . I know he hates my guts, but I think we should reach out to Mitt Romney and say, 'Romney, look, don't even run, just put your name on the ballot,'" Glenn said. "Maybe I should reach out to Ted and say . . . don't run, don't run. Don't do an ad. Don't do anything. Just put your name on the ballot in case we start to have 20 points behind."

Stu touted his bailout plan to get a new candidate on the ballot in several deep red states.

"If there's a real breakdown and you're talking about an insurance policy, it's possible. By the way, it's much more possible than trying to get on 50 ballots right now. You'd have to win 25 lawsuits," Stu said.

"All I'm saying is, we have to have an insurance policy," Glenn said.

Listen to this segment from The Glenn Beck Program:

FBI whistleblower Steve Friend exposed the FBI for its handling of the investigation into the January 6 riot — and paid the price. Friend joined "The Glenn Beck Program" to describe the series of events that eventually led him not only to leave the FBI, but to speak out against potential abuses within the department as well. The crux of his story began with cases concerning the January 6, 2021, riot and one arrest warrant that he refused to take part in.


Friend also joined Glenn on his "Targets of Tyranny" special to explain why he believed the January 6 cases were run by Washington, D.C., and how the agency's handling of the "J6" investigations has been so "unusual" that he says he's "never" seen anything even close to this before.

Watch the video clip below. Can't watch? Download the podcast here.



Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

A judge has banned Texas father Jeff Younger from speaking about his son, James, who was taken from him by our courts after he refused to call his son a girl. But Jeff said he'd rather go to jail than comply: "I'll appear in handcuffs ... but I'm not taking this tyranny."

Jeff joined Glenn Beck on "Targets of Tyranny" to tell James' story and explain the biggest lessons he's learned while battling our legal system.

"This interview is illegal in the state of Texas," Jeff told Glenn. "I was banned from publishing any blog posts, social media post, publishing a newspaper article, doing any writing at all about my situation. I was also permanently banned from doing interviews, doing podcasts, appearing on television interviews, and these are all specifically laid out," he explained.

"I was also banned from speaking on three political topics. I'm not allowed to talk about anything about transgender issues, gender expansiveness, or whether my son is a boy or a girl. And I have told this judge — and I tell this judge every time I do an interview — I will never follow your illegal and unconstitutional order. I have contempt for her as a judge issuing the order. I have maximum contempt for the tyrannical language of the order, and I will never follow the order," Jeff continued.

"I'm guilty of maximum criminal contempt in the 301st District Court of the state of Texas, and [the judge] is obligated to put me in jail for the maximum sentence, which is 180 days in the jail in Dallas County. Four days later, I'll be in the jail library with the writ of habeas corpus that I've already prepared. We will go to the 5th District, and we will see who's right. I'll appear in handcuffs, her in the judge's robe, but I'm not taking this tyranny. And I'm not going to stop speaking out about my son."

Watch the video clip below or find Glenn’s two-hour special, "Targets of Tyranny," here.


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

Here's how deep Amazon's ties to the government REALLY go — and why it matters to YOU

Photo credit (Left) Kent Nishimura / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images (Right) PHILIPPE HUGUEN/AFP via Getty Images

The world knows Amazon is an extraordinarily powerful company, but one family’s terrifying story demonstrates just how dark, dominant, and dishonorable the monopolistic corporation truly is. Amy Nelson’s husband, Carl, was accused of an unspecific crime by Amazon — his former employer — in 2020. Even though Carl was never charged with that crime, Amazon still seized nearly all the funds Amy and Carl had spent years acquiring. Everything was taken directly from their bank accounts via civil asset forfeiture. But the dangers of Amazon go even further.

Amy joined "The Glenn Beck Program" to detail just how menacing the relationship between Amazon and our federal government — specifically the DOJ — truly is.

Watch the video clip above or find Glenn’s two-hour special, "Targets of Tyranny," here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

Glenn: Trump 'did EVERYTHING he needed to do' in 2024 campaign launch

Photo by ALON SKUY/AFP via Getty Images/Video screenshot

Donald Trump announced his second run for the White House this week. And while Glenn Beck said he thinks Trump "did everything he needed to do" in his announcement speech — he was disciplined, didn't pick fights, and stayed focused on what's ahead — he still has some advice for the former president.

Watch the video clip from "The Glenn Beck Program" above to find out what Glenn believes Trump absolutely must do in order to reach as many voters as possible before the 2024 election. Can't watch? Download the podcast here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.