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Election by Numbers: The Bradley Effect

October 18, 2016
Lori Hanes

Writer

How accurate are current presidential election polls? Could people be telling pollsters one thing, but voting the complete opposite? The Bradley effect, a theory about discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, may very well impact how people cast their final ballot.

RELATED: Let’s Talk Polls

Read below or listen to the full segment for answers to these questions:

• Who is the Bradley effect named after?

• Could the Bradley effect impact both parties?

• Can the Bradley effect be about more than racism?

Listen to this segment from The Glenn Beck Program:

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN:  Give me the poll results here, Stu.  Because I'm worried about something called the Bradley effect, on both sides.

For instance, those people -- because there's a backlash now.  If you don't say you're voting for Clinton and you're on the left, they'll bash you and say, you know, you're just for Trump.  It's worse on the right.  If you say you're not going to vote for Trump, they will bash you.  So I'm not sure the poll numbers are right because, do you want to go through the hell of just not -- just -- just go along with it.  Just go along with it.

And how many people don't even want to admit to their own family or their own spouses, that will go in and pull the lever on the right for someone else, or they'll say they're for someone else, but when they get into it, they're like, "I don't want Trump in."  So I know I said I was for Jill Stein, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.

STU:  We're definitely seeing that beginning.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  Yeah.  

GLENN:  They're going to pull out of these -- I'm saying that I'm voting for, you know, Gary Johnson, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.  Because Hillary is the one with the third party lean.  She's got a -- she's pulling much stronger from the third parties than Donald Trump is.

STU:  Most polls show that.

GLENN:  Right.  So they are appealing to her.  Everyone should celebrate the third party because they're not hurting Donald Trump in comparison to how they're hurting Hillary Clinton.  The spread becomes wider when those parties are left out.

But the same can be said about Donald Trump.  How many people will say, "I'm not for Donald Trump."

STU:  Right.  So the -- this goes to the Bradley effect.  Let's start there.  Tom Bradley.  He was the mayor of Los Angeles.  This was back in 1982.  He was running for governor.  Black guy running for governor.  Was ahead in all the polls.  Wound up losing the election.  The belief was that people in the polls did not want to admit they were voting against the black guy because it would feel like -- they didn't want to admit that they were, quote, unquote, racist.  But then their racism really showed when they got behind the --

GLENN:  Which was such crap.  Possibly, what they didn't want was to have the argument or be called a racist.  But they just didn't agree with the guy.

STU:  It could be that too.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  So the Bradley effect started there.  There's some examples in that era, in the '80s and even the early '90s a little bit where it seemed like it was a thing.  There has not been an example of this particular type of thing in a long time.

GLENN:  Because -- because what the media is calling the Bradley effect is racism.  That you're racist.

STU:  Yes.

GLENN:  I don't think so.  It is a natural avoidance of conflict in your personal life, until you close the curtain.  So the country is so divide that you're a racist if you don't vote for Bradley.  Okay?  And so if you -- if you just don't agree with him, but you're not a racist, you just don't agree with him, just go along and say, "Yeah, I'm with you."  And then when the curtain closes, you're like, "I don't agree with him."  It's not racism.

So if it's racism, then it doesn't apply.  But fits actually political correctness, that you're tired of political correctness, but you're so tired you've just given up -- and you're just saying, for instance, "Yes, I'm for Trump."  Because you don't want to get beat up by the pro-Trump people.  

Or you are actually pro-Trump, but you're saying to your friends that you're Hillary.  You just hate Hillary so much, you're just like, "I'm going to go for Trump."  But your friends will kill you if you say you're for Hillary.

STU:  Yeah.

GLENN:  And I think both of them have this.  I think Hillary has the possibility that there are so many people -- we've talked to them.

JEFFY:  Yeah.

GLENN:  So many die-hard Democrats that despise her.  Despise her.  But they are so afraid of Donald Trump.  The same thing with the Republicans.  They despise Donald Trump.  But they're so afraid of Hillary Clinton.  That could shake apart once the curtain is closed.

This MUST be why Trump (allegedly) had NUCLEAR documents at Mar-a-Lago

Photo by (Left) Win McNamee/ (Right) Bettmann /Contributor/Getty Images

According to the Washington Post's "anonymous sources," the FBI was looking for documents related to nuclear weapons during its raid of Mar-a-Lago.

Who could have guessed what Donald Trump did with those documents (never mind that he allegedly had them for over a year before the FBI actually did anything)? And who knows why they were searching through Melania's drawers for such top-secret information? Also, isn't it interesting that even after both Attorney General Merrick Garland and Donald Trump asked for the search warrant to be unsealed, only this very unspecific and very damning bit of information was "leaked" to the Washington Post? And just a few months before the midterm elections?

Since the DOJ still hasn't told us much (what was leaked to the media), Glenn did his best to present a few "theories" of his own on "The Glenn Beck Program" Friday. Watch the video clip below to hear more from "The Glenn Beck Program." Can't watch? Download the podcast here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

New details emerge about Trump raid — and 'it doesn't look good for the FBI'

Photo by Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images

New, alleged details about the raid of former President Donald Trump's home at Mar-a-Lago hint that it's "not looking good for the FBI," said BlazeTV host Glenn Beck on the radio program Thursday.

Trump has faced attacks from every direction, but despite all of it, he has "not been found guilty or had any kind of real, solid evidence against him," Glenn pointed out.

Glenn detailed a long list of investigations, accusations, and lawsuits against Trump, and the latest puzzling revelations about the FBI's raid of Mar-a-Lago, which only seem to raise even more questions. For example, did agents truly refuse to give Trump's lawyer a copy of the warrant upon arriving at the home? Because sources have alleged that his attorney was kept "10 feet away from the warrant" and was not allowed to actually read it. If that's true, then it was absolutely against the law.

Then there was the inordinate amount of time spent going through Melania Trump's closet. And did they have the proper authority to break into Trump's safe?

"That warrant had better damn well say that they can break into that safe because the law is, you can't go into somebody's house and ... just tear it all apart," Glenn said. "You have to have a pretty good idea of where things might be located, and you ask for permission for those areas. And you have to know exactly what you're looking for, and if it's in a safe, you need to specifically say, 'it's in a safe and we're having a safe cracker come in.' If they didn't say in the warrant that they could crack his safe, it's the fruit of the poisoned tree. By the way, there was nothing in the safe."

Glenn also explained that the FBI broke into a specific "safe room" that contained national archives, which Trump was allegedly told by investigators to keep in a locked room.

"[Trump] made a safe room, and put two locks on it, at their request. And that's what they broke into," Glenn said. "This doesn't look good for the FBI," he added.

Watch the video clip below to hear more from "The Glenn Beck Program." Can't watch? Download the podcast here.


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

The NEW 'Axis of Evil': Preparing for economic WAR with Russia & China

There’s an economic axis of evil taking shape right now, and the people in charge of our government are too stupid to acknowledge and deal with what’s happening. The U.S. dollar and the entire financial system are at stake, and, as Glenn Beck reveals on "Glenn TV" Wednesday, our enemies’ PUBLISHED plans to take the entire thing down.

While all of this is happening, our own leaders are making everything worse. We’ve got Nancy Pelosi risking an international incident, accelerating China’s plans to collapse us. And when Biden SHOULD be focusing on the security of our country, he’s instead preoccupied with controlling the weather with his Inflation "Reduction" Act.

Glenn exposes the TRUE numbers on what that bill will do to your family’s budget. Add to that, they’re more than doubling the IRS to make sure you feel the pain. And if you think they won’t come for you, look at what they just did to the former president of the United States. The DOJ and FBI just went after the political opponent of their boss, Joe Biden.

This is what they are focused on, and the threat to the dollar — and the entire financial system — isn’t even on their radar. Pain is coming for us, and they don’t care one bit.

Watch the full episode below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Biden ACTUALLY expects you to believe 'our economy had 0% inflation' last month — isn't fooling anyone

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Speaking before signing the “PACT Act of 2022” on Wednesday morning, President Joe Biden claimed that his wonderful economic plan "is working" and that somehow July’s annual inflation rate of 8.5% was actually “zero.”

“I just want to say a number: zero. Today we received news that our economy had 0% inflation in the month of July,” Biden said during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre dutifully echoed the president's not-at-all misleading claim:

The truth of the matter is that last month's inflation rate of 8.5% was a (small) step in the right direction, but only because it was lower than June's 41-year high of 9.1% — and the thing is, anyone who's graduated kindergarten knows it.

So, who do White House personnel think they're fooling? On the radio program Wednesday, Glenn Beck and producer Stu Burguiere broke down how the Biden administration came to this latest disingenuous conclusion about the economy, what the latest consumer price index actually shows, and why the inevitable Biden brag-fest will be unbearable.

Watch the video clip below. Can't watch? Download the podcast here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis, and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.