Election by Numbers: The Bradley Effect

How accurate are current presidential election polls? Could people be telling pollsters one thing, but voting the complete opposite? The Bradley effect, a theory about discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, may very well impact how people cast their final ballot.

RELATED: Let’s Talk Polls

Read below or listen to the full segment for answers to these questions:

• Who is the Bradley effect named after?

• Could the Bradley effect impact both parties?

• Can the Bradley effect be about more than racism?

Listen to this segment from The Glenn Beck Program:

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN:  Give me the poll results here, Stu.  Because I'm worried about something called the Bradley effect, on both sides.

For instance, those people -- because there's a backlash now.  If you don't say you're voting for Clinton and you're on the left, they'll bash you and say, you know, you're just for Trump.  It's worse on the right.  If you say you're not going to vote for Trump, they will bash you.  So I'm not sure the poll numbers are right because, do you want to go through the hell of just not -- just -- just go along with it.  Just go along with it.

And how many people don't even want to admit to their own family or their own spouses, that will go in and pull the lever on the right for someone else, or they'll say they're for someone else, but when they get into it, they're like, "I don't want Trump in."  So I know I said I was for Jill Stein, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.

STU:  We're definitely seeing that beginning.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  Yeah.  

GLENN:  They're going to pull out of these -- I'm saying that I'm voting for, you know, Gary Johnson, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.  Because Hillary is the one with the third party lean.  She's got a -- she's pulling much stronger from the third parties than Donald Trump is.

STU:  Most polls show that.

GLENN:  Right.  So they are appealing to her.  Everyone should celebrate the third party because they're not hurting Donald Trump in comparison to how they're hurting Hillary Clinton.  The spread becomes wider when those parties are left out.

But the same can be said about Donald Trump.  How many people will say, "I'm not for Donald Trump."

STU:  Right.  So the -- this goes to the Bradley effect.  Let's start there.  Tom Bradley.  He was the mayor of Los Angeles.  This was back in 1982.  He was running for governor.  Black guy running for governor.  Was ahead in all the polls.  Wound up losing the election.  The belief was that people in the polls did not want to admit they were voting against the black guy because it would feel like -- they didn't want to admit that they were, quote, unquote, racist.  But then their racism really showed when they got behind the --

GLENN:  Which was such crap.  Possibly, what they didn't want was to have the argument or be called a racist.  But they just didn't agree with the guy.

STU:  It could be that too.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  So the Bradley effect started there.  There's some examples in that era, in the '80s and even the early '90s a little bit where it seemed like it was a thing.  There has not been an example of this particular type of thing in a long time.

GLENN:  Because -- because what the media is calling the Bradley effect is racism.  That you're racist.

STU:  Yes.

GLENN:  I don't think so.  It is a natural avoidance of conflict in your personal life, until you close the curtain.  So the country is so divide that you're a racist if you don't vote for Bradley.  Okay?  And so if you -- if you just don't agree with him, but you're not a racist, you just don't agree with him, just go along and say, "Yeah, I'm with you."  And then when the curtain closes, you're like, "I don't agree with him."  It's not racism.

So if it's racism, then it doesn't apply.  But fits actually political correctness, that you're tired of political correctness, but you're so tired you've just given up -- and you're just saying, for instance, "Yes, I'm for Trump."  Because you don't want to get beat up by the pro-Trump people.  

Or you are actually pro-Trump, but you're saying to your friends that you're Hillary.  You just hate Hillary so much, you're just like, "I'm going to go for Trump."  But your friends will kill you if you say you're for Hillary.

STU:  Yeah.

GLENN:  And I think both of them have this.  I think Hillary has the possibility that there are so many people -- we've talked to them.

JEFFY:  Yeah.

GLENN:  So many die-hard Democrats that despise her.  Despise her.  But they are so afraid of Donald Trump.  The same thing with the Republicans.  They despise Donald Trump.  But they're so afraid of Hillary Clinton.  That could shake apart once the curtain is closed.

President Trump has given us great judges on the lower court, 3 judges far superior than Roberts and other bogus constitutionalists as SCOTUS and one just may turn out to be another Clarence Thomas. He kicked the ass of ISIS and came home.

He got us out of the disastrous Iran deal, killed their head of terror, boxed them in and is currently collapsing their economy while also brokering a Mid East peace deal that everyone said could never happen. He moved our embassy to Jerusalem despite the state department, something no president has done even though they all promised.

Yes, he met with the North Korean Dictator. I hated that, but I also hated the fact that no other president did anything and North Korea kept gaining power. He has gotten Europe to pay their share of NATO, brought the Arabs and the Jews together, while smashing the choke hold of the PLO, and stood up to the Chinese instead of selling them supercomputers (Clinton), accepting lead poison in dog food (Bush), or loving the CCP and taking millions in dirty money (Obama/Biden).

He also has defended religious liberty unlike any other president at least in the last 100 years, and is a true pro-life advocate that unlike most republicans backs it up with action instead of just talk.

President Trump has also opened doors that the GOP was too wussy to even try to open with Hispanics and Blacks. He again didn't pander. He instead cleared the dead wood and opened pathways up so they could get higher education, create jobs, and not get lost in the prison system.

He also has defended religious liberty... and is a true pro-life advocate.

President Trump also took on an economy that had been beaten down, a people who had been told "you didn't build that" and, in fact, Obama and Biden claimed that the economy was "as good as it would ever get," that we would never create jobs in sectors ever again.

President Trump gave us the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 (the year I celebrated my 5th birthday,) the lowest unemployment for Hispanics & Blacks ever, and the first real growth in pay that I can remember.

President Trump then responded to the largest pandemic in 100 years by doing a couple of things I have never seen a president do:

  1. America's biggest capitalist shuts down the entire economy and knowingly puts his re-election at risk in order to save people.
  2. Closes travel with China and Europe, only to be called “racist," "xenophobic" and accused of stirring hatred. Now everyone says they were for it, but he stood alone and took the heat.

When everyone bashed him because they thought he would seize control and become an authoritarian by telling states what to do, or taking control of companies and telling them what to produce, he simply asked the free market to step to the plate, because he trusts the people of this country to do the right thing. By not taking control, he was called a dictator and a Nazi. Meanwhile he has been blamed for the blood bath created by Gov. Cuomo's nursing home policies. They said 2 million would die, best case scenario 200,000 — if we did everything right. Gee, seems that we are now in the time period they told us would be phase two, it seems as though we seem to have hit that "best case scenario" at this point.

While all of this has gone on, President Trump has fought the lies that were started by Hillary Clinton's team to smear him as a Russian operative. It was enabled by the Obama White House and included the DOJ, CIA, Dept of State, FBI, and DNI. Did I leave anyone out? Oh, yeah we are now getting evidence that members of the Pentagon may have been involved as well. Not to mention the so-called "press" and Congress who did things that would embarrass not only "Frank Underwood" but also Kevin Spacey. He has single handedly exposed the press for who they are and have always been. Because of his tweets, personal style and frankly balls of steel, he has exposed those who truly are: "Enemies of the people." I hated that when he first said it, but it is true. Any person or group that knowingly lies to destroy our president, our Constitution and the free market, are not just enemies of the people, they are enemies of the freedom of all mankind.

As someone who didn't support President Trump at first (and that is putting it mildly) I remain honest enough to judge him on his entire record. He is perhaps the only man in America that can and has stood entirely alone, surrounded by enemies, surrounded by those who took an oath to protect and defend the Constitution, who are now actively engaged in destroying it and any elected president who stands in their way.

Personally, I have grown sick and tired of spineless, do nothing, old, corrupt GOP politicians who are either part of the problem or too frightened to stand alone and speak up. The vast majority are all "Sunshine Patriots." History will condemn those who did nothing but complain and whine, while others not only rang the bell, but stood and took the hits, who risked it all and lost money, reputation and perhaps, God forbid, some who gave the ultimate sacrifice to fight the evil that rages so clearly against the light.

100 years from now history will judge all of us. So will our children's children. Most will be forgotten. Those who failed to show up on the battlefield or cower in the trees, will be remembered with shame and disdain. Others like President Trump, I believe will be seen as indispensable.

DECODING the Democrats' EXTENSIVE ties to 'Big Tech'

Annie Spratt/Unsplash

The Democrats' ties to "Big Tech" and the entertainment industry have placed them in the perfect position to influence both public policy and our nation's culture. It's impossible to unweave the entire web of Democrat operatives and sleeper cells, but here are a few of the current ties between the Dems and an industry that arguably has more influence on our day-to-day lives than any other.

Twitter Executives

Jack Dorsey, CEO

Omid Kordestani, Director, Executive Chairman

Ned Segal, CFO

Evan Williams, Former Twitter CEO, Current Board Member

Bridget Coyne, Public Policy Director

  • In charge of government/election partnerships with leading global government and political publishers including content strategy for Twitter
  • Intern and Press Secretary for multiple Democrat politicians, plus Rachel Maddow Show

Nicholas Pacilio, Senior Communications Manager, former Communications Manager

Carlos Monje, former Director of Public Policy

Brandon Borrman, VP Global Communications

Facebook

Mark Zuckerberg, CEO

Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer

Andy Stone, Policy Communications Director

Anna Makanju, Global Policy Manager

Brian Rice, Director of Public Policy

Probir Mehta, Global Public Policy

Jessica Hertz, Former Director and Associate General Counsel

    When I first talked about all the problems with mail-in voting two months ago, I said the last thing we want to see is voting rules getting changed so close to an election. Yet, that is exactly what is happening right now across the nation.

    And in almost every case, Democrats are fighting to get rid of simple, common sense safeguards like requiring a witness signature, or requiring that a voter's signature on a mail-in ballot matches their signature on file. It's really an insane effort to change the rules in the middle of the game. And the effort is still going strong even though we're less than three weeks from Election Day.

    Remember how mail-in voting is supposed to save the Republic? If that doesn't sit well with you or make sense to you, you are not alone. Start the video below at the 2:04 mark and see what reassurances Abrams shares.

    "We must adapt to how we conduct our elections?!" That's practically been the Democrats' motto for 2020. Don't like the results you get from regular old-fashioned elections? Let's just create some new "norms" for voting. I mean it's been on their to-do list forever anyway and COVID is the perfect opportunity to finally get it done.

    So, how is that "adapting to new norms" thing going? Well, I'm glad I asked. Because it's the perfect time to welcome you to the inaugural Chaoscar Awards, recognizing achievements in mail-in voting chaos.

    For example, the "Every Vote Matters" Chaoscar award goes to Luzerne County, Pennsylvania where the FBI found nine discarded military ballots in a dumpster.

    The Letter from U.S. Attorney David Freed to the Luzerne County Bureau of Elections says:

    The FBI has recovered a number of documents relating to military ballots that had been improperly opened by your elections staff, and had the ballots removed and discarded…

    The FBI also found additional absentee ballot envelopes that were empty, so who knows where those ballots went.

    But wait, Stacey Abrams told us mail-in voting is safe and secure! Secure? Well, maybe not if you're in the military and sending your ballot to Luzerne County, Pennsylvania.

    The "It Takes Two to Tango" Chaoscar goes to Fairfax County, Virginia for mailing duplicate absentee ballots to 1,400 voters.

    But don't worry, election officials have it all under control. They say only one of the ballots will be counted — unless you're a Democrat. Okay, they didn't really say that, but they were probably thinking it. Officials blamed a printer problem and said people should destroy their duplicate ballot. Or, they could just send it to our next Chaoscar winner — Texas mayoral candidate Zul Mohamed.

    He was arrested last week on voter fraud charges after applying for 84 absentee ballots and having them sent to a P.O. box that allegedly belongs to a nursing home.

    Nice try.

    Next, the "You've Got No Mail" Chaoscar goes to Outagamie County, Wisconsin. Three trays of mail, which included multiple absentee ballots, were discovered in a ditch along a state highway.

    Does no one bury anything anymore? If you want to get rid of ballots, why are you using dumpsters and ditches?

    New York City wins the "G.I. Schmo" Chaoscar for sending voters mail-in ballots marked for military use.

    That's right, New Yorkers who have never served in the military have received the ballot, which says "Official Military Absentee Ballot."

    Maybe there was supposed to be a slash between the words "military" and "absentee," but voters are obviously confused and concerned about whether they're supposed to go ahead and use the ballot even though they're not in the military.

    Over 520,000 ballots have already been sent out and the New York Elections Board does not know how many of those have the error.

    The 'Every Vote Matters' Chaoscar goes to...

    We hop over to New Jersey for our next award — the "Dumpster Diver" Chaoscar goes to a mailman who has been arrested for allegedly tossing 1,875 of pieces of mail — including 99 election ballots — into a dumpster.

    What was that Stacey Abrams? I forgot...

    Next, New York City wins its second Chaoscar of the night — it's the "You Had One Job" award for sending out 140,000 absentee ballots to Brooklyn voters with the wrong names and addresses.

    These voters are supposed to complete their ballot and put it inside the official absentee ballot envelope, then sign the outside of the envelope and send it in. But these return envelopes have the wrong name and address, so voters cannot sign them unless they want their ballot to be voided.

    Many voters do not even have the right name on the ballot itself.

    And this is great — the New York Board of Elections says a "printing error" is responsible for the bad ballots. Wow — really, a printing error? Gee, how did they ever solve that mystery?

    One report on this said:

    It was unclear exactly how the city planned to handle voters who had already mailed their completed ballot back in the provided envelopes.

    That is a huge red flag, because it's exactly the kind of issue that will help fuel chaos and endless litigation all over America after Election Day.

    Next, the "I See Dead People Voting" Chaoscar goes to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts for its new temporary rules allowing dead people's votes to count.

    Before this year, Massachusetts allowed early voting to start ten days before the election. If you voted early and died before Election Day, sorry, your vote would not count.

    But Massachusetts changed the rules this year because of the pandemic. Now early voting starts 30 days before Election Day. And if you cast your vote during this early window, and then kick the bucket before November 3, you can rest in total peace knowing your vote will still count!

    America — land of opportunity, even after you're dead.

    Our final Chaoscar of the night is the "It's So Crazy It Just Might Work" special achievement award, which goes to Houston, Texas. This is for an alleged ballot harvesting and voter fraud operation that — if the allegations prove to be true — dwarfs any election-related fraud we've seen anywhere so far this year.

    Two private investigators — one a former FBI agent, the other a former Houston police captain — filed sworn affidavits with the Texas Supreme Court as part of a class-action lawsuit against Harris County.

    This is a copy of the lawsuit and I want to quote directly from it, so you understand what the specific allegations are:

    Licensed Private Investigators... have been investigating ballot harvesting in Harris County for many months...
    The organization and operation of the illegal harvesting program is being used to commit fraud in the November 3, 2020 election...

    According to the investigators, witnesses have identified Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis... and Texas State Senator Borris Miles as leading the organization tasked with harvesting ballots. The investigators further state that witnesses have identified Houston businessman Gerald Womack and political consultant Dallas Jones as lieutenants working directly under Commissioner Ellis and Senator Miles.

    By the way, in September, Dallas Jones was hired by the Joe Biden campaign to be its Texas Political Director.

    This is a copy of the affidavit from one of the private investigators, Mark Aguirre. He says:

    I have in my possession video-taped interviews of witnesses attesting to the aforementioned people having groups of people completing thousands of absentee and mail-in ballots, including completing ballots for deceased individuals; illegally going into nursing homes, with the complicity of the nursing home staff, and filling out and forging the signatures of nursing home residents; signing up homeless individuals to vote using the ballot harvester's address then completing the ballot and forging the homeless individual's signature.

    And this is from the affidavit of the second private investigator. He says:

    [One] witness stated to me that an employee of Commissioner Ellis, Tyler James, has bragged that he could guarantee that the illegal ballot harvesting operation, with the help of mass mail-in ballots, could harvest 700,000 illegal ballots.

    Democrats successfully created chaos and now they're working overtime to change voting rules across the nation, taking advantage of friendly courts and judges to legislate from the bench. It's all about election insurance, tweaking the state voting systems to make Joe Biden's path to victory easier, including — in many states — rigging the ballot.

    While Big Tech, the Democrats and the media insist mail-in voting is safe and secure, it's already going off the rails in many states and uncovers the left-wing forces behind the massive litigation war being waged by Democrats to permanently change the way you vote.


    Democrats are freaked out about Amy Coney Barrett joining the Supreme Court. But don't let their fretting fool you, because as Glenn Beck reveals, the Left is doing just fine in the federal and state courts. In fact, the Left is thriving.

    Tonight at 9 p.m. ET, 8 p.m. CT, Glenn shows how Democrats successfully created chaos with their massive push for mail-in voting. Now they're working overtime to change voting rules across the nation, taking advantage of friendly courts and judges to legislate from the bench. It's all about election insurance, tweaking the state voting systems to make Joe Biden's path to victory easier – including, in many states, rigging the ballot.

    While Big Tech, Democrats, and the media insist mail-in voting is trustworthy and there's nothing to see here, Glenn exposes how mail-in voting is already going off the rails in many states and uncovers the left-wing forces behind the massive litigation war being waged by Democrats to permanently change the way you vote.

    Because the content of this show is sure to set off the Big tech censors, the full episode will only be available on Blaze TV. Start your free trial to watch it tonight, and save $20 off a one-year subscription with code SAVEOURELECTION.

    Watch a preview of the show below:

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