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Election by Numbers: The Bradley Effect

October 18, 2016
 Lori Hanes

Writer

How accurate are current presidential election polls? Could people be telling pollsters one thing, but voting the complete opposite? The Bradley effect, a theory about discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes, may very well impact how people cast their final ballot.

RELATED: Let’s Talk Polls

Read below or listen to the full segment for answers to these questions:

• Who is the Bradley effect named after?

• Could the Bradley effect impact both parties?

• Can the Bradley effect be about more than racism?

Listen to this segment from The Glenn Beck Program:

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN:  Give me the poll results here, Stu.  Because I'm worried about something called the Bradley effect, on both sides.

For instance, those people -- because there's a backlash now.  If you don't say you're voting for Clinton and you're on the left, they'll bash you and say, you know, you're just for Trump.  It's worse on the right.  If you say you're not going to vote for Trump, they will bash you.  So I'm not sure the poll numbers are right because, do you want to go through the hell of just not -- just -- just go along with it.  Just go along with it.

And how many people don't even want to admit to their own family or their own spouses, that will go in and pull the lever on the right for someone else, or they'll say they're for someone else, but when they get into it, they're like, "I don't want Trump in."  So I know I said I was for Jill Stein, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.

STU:  We're definitely seeing that beginning.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  Yeah.  

GLENN:  They're going to pull out of these -- I'm saying that I'm voting for, you know, Gary Johnson, but I'm going to vote for Hillary.  Because Hillary is the one with the third party lean.  She's got a -- she's pulling much stronger from the third parties than Donald Trump is.

STU:  Most polls show that.

GLENN:  Right.  So they are appealing to her.  Everyone should celebrate the third party because they're not hurting Donald Trump in comparison to how they're hurting Hillary Clinton.  The spread becomes wider when those parties are left out.

But the same can be said about Donald Trump.  How many people will say, "I'm not for Donald Trump."

STU:  Right.  So the -- this goes to the Bradley effect.  Let's start there.  Tom Bradley.  He was the mayor of Los Angeles.  This was back in 1982.  He was running for governor.  Black guy running for governor.  Was ahead in all the polls.  Wound up losing the election.  The belief was that people in the polls did not want to admit they were voting against the black guy because it would feel like -- they didn't want to admit that they were, quote, unquote, racist.  But then their racism really showed when they got behind the --

GLENN:  Which was such crap.  Possibly, what they didn't want was to have the argument or be called a racist.  But they just didn't agree with the guy.

STU:  It could be that too.

GLENN:  Right.

STU:  So the Bradley effect started there.  There's some examples in that era, in the '80s and even the early '90s a little bit where it seemed like it was a thing.  There has not been an example of this particular type of thing in a long time.

GLENN:  Because -- because what the media is calling the Bradley effect is racism.  That you're racist.

STU:  Yes.

GLENN:  I don't think so.  It is a natural avoidance of conflict in your personal life, until you close the curtain.  So the country is so divide that you're a racist if you don't vote for Bradley.  Okay?  And so if you -- if you just don't agree with him, but you're not a racist, you just don't agree with him, just go along and say, "Yeah, I'm with you."  And then when the curtain closes, you're like, "I don't agree with him."  It's not racism.

So if it's racism, then it doesn't apply.  But fits actually political correctness, that you're tired of political correctness, but you're so tired you've just given up -- and you're just saying, for instance, "Yes, I'm for Trump."  Because you don't want to get beat up by the pro-Trump people.  

Or you are actually pro-Trump, but you're saying to your friends that you're Hillary.  You just hate Hillary so much, you're just like, "I'm going to go for Trump."  But your friends will kill you if you say you're for Hillary.

STU:  Yeah.

GLENN:  And I think both of them have this.  I think Hillary has the possibility that there are so many people -- we've talked to them.

JEFFY:  Yeah.

GLENN:  So many die-hard Democrats that despise her.  Despise her.  But they are so afraid of Donald Trump.  The same thing with the Republicans.  They despise Donald Trump.  But they're so afraid of Hillary Clinton.  That could shake apart once the curtain is closed.

WATCH: Jan. 6 FALLOUT: Biden's Domestic Terrorism Threat Is YOU

The Capitol riot was foolish and tragic, but Pelosi's Select Committee "investigation" on the January 6 "insurrection" has devolved into a show trial complete with bad tears and bad acting. But this is just a charade designed to distract us.

What's going on behind closed doors is truly nefarious. The Biden White House and the U.S. national security apparatus are seizing that event to redefine domestic terrorism and expand the powers of government to prevent it. There is an alarming blueprint for sweeping government action called the "National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism," put together by the National Security Council.

On his Wednesday night special this week, Glenn Beck exposes the collusion between the Biden administration and Big Tech to surveil, root out, and silence America's deplorables – all in the name of national security.

Watch the full "Glenn TV" episode below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

'They've taken away the symbol of the American flag': Restaurant owner speaks out after being FINED for flying flags on July 4

Terry Trobiani owns Gianelli's Drive Thru in Prairie Grove, Illinois, where he put up a row of American flags for the Fourth of July. But the city claimed he was displaying two of them improperly and issued him a $100 ticket for each flag.

Terry joined Glenn Beck on the radio program Tuesday to explain what he believes really happened. He told Glenn that, according to city ordinance, the American flag is considered "ornamental" and should therefore have been permitted on a federal holiday. But the city has now classified the flag as a "sign."

"Apparently, the village of Prairie Grove has classified the American flag as a sign and they've taken away the symbol of the American flag," Terry said. "So, as a sign, it falls under their temporary sign ordinance, which prohibits any flying, or any positioning of signs on your property — and now this includes the American flag. [...] The only way I could fly the American flag on my property is if I put it on a permanent 20 to 30-foot flagpole, which they have to permit."

Terry went on to explain how the city is now demanding an apology for his actions, and all after more than a year of small-business crushing COVID restrictions and government mandates.

"COVID was tough," Terry stated. "You know, we're in the restaurant business. COVID was tough on us. We succeeded. We made it through. We cut a lot of things, but we never cut an employee. We paid all our employees. I didn't take a paycheck for a year just to keep our employees on, because it was that important to me to keep things going. And, you know, you fight for a year, and you beat a pandemic, and then you have this little municipality with five trustees and a president, who just have no respect for small businesses. And right now, what I see is they have no respect for the republic and the United States ... I think it's terrible. The direction that government, at all levels, have taken us to this point, it's despicable."

Watch the video below to catch more of the conversation:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

North Korean's URGENT warning: THIS is why freedom of speech is so important

The Biden administration is now doing everything it can to censor what it has decided is COVID-19 "misinformation." But Glenn Beck isn't confident that the silencing of voices will stop there.

Yeonmi Park grew up in North Korea, where there is no freedom of speech, and she joined Glenn to warn that America must not let this freedom go.

"Whenever authoritarianism rises, the first thing they go after is freedom of speech," she said.

Watch the video clip below from "The Glenn Beck Podcast" or find the full episode with Yeonmi Park here:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution, and live the American dream.

Critical race theory: The revolution of constant whining

Flickr/GaryStevens

Most self-proclaimed Marxists know very little about Marxism. Some of them have all the buzzwords memorized. They talk about the exploits of labor. They talk about the slavery of capitalist society and the alienation caused by capital. They talk about the evils of power and domination.

But they don't actually believe what they say. Or else they wouldn't be such violent hypocrites. And we're not being dramatic when we say "violent."

For them, Marxism is a political tool that they use to degrade and annoy their political enemies.

They don't actually care about the working class.

Another important thing to remember about Marxists is that they talk about how they want to defend the working class, but they don't actually understand the working class. They definitely don't realize that the working class is composed mostly of so many of the people they hate. Because, here's the thing, they don't actually care about the working class. Or the middle class. They wouldn't have the slightest clue how to actually work, not the way we do. For them, work involves ranting about how work and labor are evil.

Ironically, if their communist utopia actually arrived, they would be the first ones against the wall. Because they have nothing to offer except dissent. They have no practical use and no real connection to reality.

Again ironically, they are the ultimate proof of the success of capitalism. The fact that they can freely call for its demise, in tweets that they send from their capitalistic iPhones, is proof that capitalism affords them tremendous luxuries.

Their specialty is complaining. They are fanatics of a religion that is endlessly cynical.

They sneer at Christianity for promising Heaven in exchange for good deeds on earth — which is a terrible description of Christianity, but it's what they actually believe — and at the same time they criticize Christianity for promising a utopia, they give their unconditional devotion to a religion that promises a utopia.

They are fanatics of a religion that is endlessly cynical.

They think capitalism has turned us into machines. Which is a bad interpretation of Marx's concept of the General Intellect, the idea that humans are the ones who create machines, so humans, not God, are the creators.

They think that the only way to achieve the perfect society is by radically changing and even destroying the current society. It's what they mean when they say things about the "status quo" and "hegemony" and the "established order." They believe that the system is broken and the way to fix it is to destroy, destroy, destroy.

Critical race theory actually takes it a step farther. It tells us that the racist system can never be changed. That racism is the original sin that white people can never overcome. Of course, critical race theorists suggest "alternative institutions," but these "alternative institutions" are basically the same as the ones we have now, only less effective and actually racist.

Marx's violent revolution never happened. Or at least it never succeeded. Marx's followers have had to take a different approach. And now, we are living through the Revolution of Constant Whining.

This post is part of a series on critical race theory. Read the full series here.