Election by Numbers: The Toss-up States Edition

According to betting markets, George Bush had a 55 percent chance of winning in 2004. In 2008, Obama had a 90 percent chance of winning over McCain. In 2012, Obama had a 65 percent of beating Romney.

So what do the betting markets predict for 2016?

"Currently, right now, Hillary is actually ahead of where Obama was in 2008," Co-host Stu Burguiere said.

Hillary is touted as having about a 91 or 92 percent chance of winning, but several toss-up states could play a key role in the outcome.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these questions:

• Should North Carolina be a toss-up state?

• Is Stu lying?

• What's like threading the needle at 8 miles an hour?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: All right. So we've already seen the latest poll numbers in North Carolina. And I would put North Carolina into the lean Republican out of the toss-up. I mean, if that -- if we can do that here.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: I would take North Carolina and say, "Let's give it to him."

STU: Right. Kept him on that side, yes.

GLENN: Florida.

STU: Florida, honestly, the early vote looks fairly good for Clinton. I've kind of always believed for some reason Trump was going to pull off Florida. He has a lot of connections down there.

You know, it's always -- it's always a razor sharp, you know, sort of election. I don't know why, but I've been thinking he's going to win that one. The early vote though has really activated Hispanics on this particular case.

PAT: Yeah. And that sounds like it bodes well for Clinton.

STU: It does.

GLENN: That's not good --

STU: I'm still leaving that one as a toss-up.

GLENN: But you also have the Cubans in Miami that should be fearful --

STU: They're Republicans most of the time.

GLENN: IF they flip this time, that would be very, very bad. Oh, wait, wait. What are the poll numbers in Florida?

Are you giving it -- you don't have to quote it to me. Are you giving it to -- I'm asking to you make a choice here.

STU: Yeah, and I've kind of leaned these things. Again, I would not bet money on any of these states because they're very much legitimate toss-ups.

GLENN: Yeah, I know that.

STU: But if I had gun to my head, right now, I would probably pick Florida -- I would lean Florida towards --

GLENN: Why? You said North Carolina is because of all the early voting, looks so favorable. Why would you put Florida into his --

PAT: You bastard, what are doing here? What are you trying to pull? What are you trying to pull?

JEFFY: Does someone -- does someone have a gun?

GLENN: What are you seeing that you're not sharing with us? Just your gut?

PAT: Yeah, you little liar.

STU: Yeah, yeah. Florida is -- let me give you -- Florida -- the percentage of winning on the election model is 51.3 percent Clinton, 48.7 percent Trump. Pure toss-up. North Carolina, 50.5 percent Clinton. 49.5 percent --

GLENN: Okay.

PAT: So she actually is ahead though still in both those states.

STU: According to the polls and demographics.

PAT: That's amazing.

STU: I also think North Carolina is --

PAT: He has to have those states.

STU: It's really not -- this is not a toss-up state. North Carolina should not be a toss-up state.

PAT: Right. Right.

STU: It was not a toss-up state. Mitt Romney won it comfortably. Barack Obama won it against McCain, but that was a blowout election. I think -- coming back to who North Carolina is, which is a red state, even though it's really more purpled lately. I think they probably will go there. The early vote supports that. Florida is a real toss-up, as it always is. You know, I'm thinking -- I don't know -- Trump has had a presence there for a long time. He's familiar to people. There's a lot of retired New Yorkers --

GLENN: He has no problem --

PAT: It's like that Sonic commercial with the two obnoxious guys who are always in those Sonic commercials. And they're talking about the two different worlds. And he's named the worlds that don't exist. Earth to Smerth, Florida.

(laughter)

STU: Yeah. Again, I'm purely guessing on these. They're toss-ups. They're in the toss-up column for a reason. It's impossible to know. But, you know, just as a gut, looking at all the information, I think Ohio, I'm also leaning it towards Trump. Trump, I think is going to win Ohio. Although, it's going to be close.

GLENN: I think so too.

STU: Nevada, the early vote looks bad for him. It's a state that --

GLENN: That's the Democratic machine.

STU: Yeah, right. The Reid machine is there, Romney lost it by seven, and the early vote looks bad.

PAT: So what if he loses Nevada but wins New Hampshire, does that get him there?

STU: No, it's not enough.

PAT: That's not enough?

STU: Yep. He'd have to win Nevada too.

PAT: So he has to win Nevada and Maine and all the rest and pick off New Hampshire.

GLENN: Holy cow.

PAT: It's hard.

GLENN: That's going to be a tough day tomorrow.

STU: It's there. He can do it.

PAT: Maybe.

GLENN: He can. But it is threading the needle at 8 miles an hour. Back in a second with what else is on your ballot.

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Watch the clip to hear the full conversation. Can't watch? Download the podcast here.

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Grace said was taken to jail but was never booked nor was she was placed in a jail cell.

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You can donate to Grace's legal fund here.

To hear more from this conversation click here.

Disclaimer: The content of this clip does not provide medical advice. Please seek the advice of local health officials for any COVID-19 and/or COVID vaccine related questions & concerns.

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Watch the full episode of "Glenn TV" below:

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