Election by Numbers: The Toss-up States Edition

According to betting markets, George Bush had a 55 percent chance of winning in 2004. In 2008, Obama had a 90 percent chance of winning over McCain. In 2012, Obama had a 65 percent of beating Romney.

So what do the betting markets predict for 2016?

"Currently, right now, Hillary is actually ahead of where Obama was in 2008," Co-host Stu Burguiere said.

Hillary is touted as having about a 91 or 92 percent chance of winning, but several toss-up states could play a key role in the outcome.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these questions:

• Should North Carolina be a toss-up state?

• Is Stu lying?

• What's like threading the needle at 8 miles an hour?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: All right. So we've already seen the latest poll numbers in North Carolina. And I would put North Carolina into the lean Republican out of the toss-up. I mean, if that -- if we can do that here.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: I would take North Carolina and say, "Let's give it to him."

STU: Right. Kept him on that side, yes.

GLENN: Florida.

STU: Florida, honestly, the early vote looks fairly good for Clinton. I've kind of always believed for some reason Trump was going to pull off Florida. He has a lot of connections down there.

You know, it's always -- it's always a razor sharp, you know, sort of election. I don't know why, but I've been thinking he's going to win that one. The early vote though has really activated Hispanics on this particular case.

PAT: Yeah. And that sounds like it bodes well for Clinton.

STU: It does.

GLENN: That's not good --

STU: I'm still leaving that one as a toss-up.

GLENN: But you also have the Cubans in Miami that should be fearful --

STU: They're Republicans most of the time.

GLENN: IF they flip this time, that would be very, very bad. Oh, wait, wait. What are the poll numbers in Florida?

Are you giving it -- you don't have to quote it to me. Are you giving it to -- I'm asking to you make a choice here.

STU: Yeah, and I've kind of leaned these things. Again, I would not bet money on any of these states because they're very much legitimate toss-ups.

GLENN: Yeah, I know that.

STU: But if I had gun to my head, right now, I would probably pick Florida -- I would lean Florida towards --

GLENN: Why? You said North Carolina is because of all the early voting, looks so favorable. Why would you put Florida into his --

PAT: You bastard, what are doing here? What are you trying to pull? What are you trying to pull?

JEFFY: Does someone -- does someone have a gun?

GLENN: What are you seeing that you're not sharing with us? Just your gut?

PAT: Yeah, you little liar.

STU: Yeah, yeah. Florida is -- let me give you -- Florida -- the percentage of winning on the election model is 51.3 percent Clinton, 48.7 percent Trump. Pure toss-up. North Carolina, 50.5 percent Clinton. 49.5 percent --

GLENN: Okay.

PAT: So she actually is ahead though still in both those states.

STU: According to the polls and demographics.

PAT: That's amazing.

STU: I also think North Carolina is --

PAT: He has to have those states.

STU: It's really not -- this is not a toss-up state. North Carolina should not be a toss-up state.

PAT: Right. Right.

STU: It was not a toss-up state. Mitt Romney won it comfortably. Barack Obama won it against McCain, but that was a blowout election. I think -- coming back to who North Carolina is, which is a red state, even though it's really more purpled lately. I think they probably will go there. The early vote supports that. Florida is a real toss-up, as it always is. You know, I'm thinking -- I don't know -- Trump has had a presence there for a long time. He's familiar to people. There's a lot of retired New Yorkers --

GLENN: He has no problem --

PAT: It's like that Sonic commercial with the two obnoxious guys who are always in those Sonic commercials. And they're talking about the two different worlds. And he's named the worlds that don't exist. Earth to Smerth, Florida.

(laughter)

STU: Yeah. Again, I'm purely guessing on these. They're toss-ups. They're in the toss-up column for a reason. It's impossible to know. But, you know, just as a gut, looking at all the information, I think Ohio, I'm also leaning it towards Trump. Trump, I think is going to win Ohio. Although, it's going to be close.

GLENN: I think so too.

STU: Nevada, the early vote looks bad for him. It's a state that --

GLENN: That's the Democratic machine.

STU: Yeah, right. The Reid machine is there, Romney lost it by seven, and the early vote looks bad.

PAT: So what if he loses Nevada but wins New Hampshire, does that get him there?

STU: No, it's not enough.

PAT: That's not enough?

STU: Yep. He'd have to win Nevada too.

PAT: So he has to win Nevada and Maine and all the rest and pick off New Hampshire.

GLENN: Holy cow.

PAT: It's hard.

GLENN: That's going to be a tough day tomorrow.

STU: It's there. He can do it.

PAT: Maybe.

GLENN: He can. But it is threading the needle at 8 miles an hour. Back in a second with what else is on your ballot.

Eric Weinstein, managing director of investment firm Thiel Capital and host of "The Portal" podcast, is not a conservative, but he says conservative and center-right-affiliated media are the only ones who will still allow oppositional voices.

On "The Glenn Beck Podcast" this week, Eric told Glenn that the center-left media, which "controls the official version of events for the country," once welcomed him, but that all changed about eight years ago when they started avoiding any kind of criticism by branding those who disagree with them as "alt-right, far-right, neo-Nazi, etc.," even if they are coming from the left side of the aisle. But their efforts to discredit critical opinions don't stop there. According to Eric, there is a strategy being employed to destroy our national culture and make sure Americans with opposing views do not come together.

"We're trifling with the disillusionment of our national culture. And our national culture is what animates the country. If we lose the culture, the documents will not save us," Eric said. "I have a very strongly strategic perspective, which is that you save things up for an emergency. Well, we're there now."

In the clip below, Eric explains why, after many requests over the last few years, he finally agreed to this podcast.

Don't miss the full interview with Eric Weinstein here.

Want to listen to more Glenn Beck podcasts?

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Glenn Beck: Why MLK's pledge of NONVIOLENCE is the key to saving America

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Listen to the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.'s pledge of nonviolence and really let it sink in: "Remember always that the nonviolent movement seeks justice and reconciliation — not victory."

On the radio program, Glenn Beck shared King's "ten commandments" of nonviolence and the meaning behind the powerful words you may never have noticed before.

"People will say nonviolent resistance is a method of cowards. It is not. It takes more courage to stand there when people are threatening you," Glenn said. "You're not necessarily the one who is going to win. You may lose. But you are standing up with courage for the ideas that you espouse. And the minute you engage in the kind of activity that the other side is engaging in, you discredit the movement. You discredit everything we believe in."

Take MLK's words to heart, America. We must stand with courage, nonviolently, with love for all, and strive for peace and rule of law, not "winning."

Watch the video below for more:

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Conservatives are between a rock and a hard place with Section 230 and Big Tech censorship. We don't want more government regulation, but have we moved beyond the ability of Section 230 reforms to rein in Big Tech's rising power?

Rachel Bovard, Conservative Partnership Institute's senior director of policy, joined the Glenn Beck radio program to give her thoughts and propose a possibly bipartisan alternative: enforcing our existing antitrust laws.

Watch the video below:

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To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Dan Bongino, host of The Dan Bongino Show, is an investor in Parler — the social media platform that actually believes in free speech. Parler was attacked by Big Tech — namely Amazon, Apple, and Google — earlier this week, but Bongino says the company isn't giving up without a fight. In fact, he says, he's willing to go bankrupt over this one.

Dan joined Glenn Beck on the radio program to detail what he calls a "smear" campaign behind the scenes, and how he believes we can move forward from Big Tech's control.

"You have no idea how bad this was behind the scenes," Dan told Glenn. "I know you're probably thinking ... well, how much worse can the attack on Parler have gotten than three trillion-dollar companies — Amazon, Apple, and Google — all seemingly coordinated to remove your business from the face of the Earth? Well, behind the scenes, it's even worse. I mean, there are smear campaigns, pressure campaigns ... lawyers, bankers, everyone, to get this company ... wiped from the face of the earth. It's incredible."

Dan emphasized that he would not give up without a fight, because what's he's really fighting for is the right to free speech for all Americans, regardless of their political opinions, without fear of being banned, blacklisted, or losing jobs and businesses.

"I will go bankrupt. I will go absolutely destitute before I let this go," he said. "I have had some very scary moments in my life and they put horse blinders on me. I know what matters now. It's not money. It's not houses. It's none of that crap. It's this: the ability to exist in a free country, where you can express your ideas freely."

Watch the video below to hear more from Dan:

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