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Election by Numbers: The Toss-up States Edition

November 07, 2016
 Staff

WRITER

According to betting markets, George Bush had a 55 percent chance of winning in 2004. In 2008, Obama had a 90 percent chance of winning over McCain. In 2012, Obama had a 65 percent of beating Romney.

So what do the betting markets predict for 2016?

"Currently, right now, Hillary is actually ahead of where Obama was in 2008," Co-host Stu Burguiere said.

Hillary is touted as having about a 91 or 92 percent chance of winning, but several toss-up states could play a key role in the outcome.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these questions:

• Should North Carolina be a toss-up state?

• Is Stu lying?

• What's like threading the needle at 8 miles an hour?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: All right. So we've already seen the latest poll numbers in North Carolina. And I would put North Carolina into the lean Republican out of the toss-up. I mean, if that -- if we can do that here.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: I would take North Carolina and say, "Let's give it to him."

STU: Right. Kept him on that side, yes.

GLENN: Florida.

STU: Florida, honestly, the early vote looks fairly good for Clinton. I've kind of always believed for some reason Trump was going to pull off Florida. He has a lot of connections down there.

You know, it's always -- it's always a razor sharp, you know, sort of election. I don't know why, but I've been thinking he's going to win that one. The early vote though has really activated Hispanics on this particular case.

PAT: Yeah. And that sounds like it bodes well for Clinton.

STU: It does.

GLENN: That's not good --

STU: I'm still leaving that one as a toss-up.

GLENN: But you also have the Cubans in Miami that should be fearful --

STU: They're Republicans most of the time.

GLENN: IF they flip this time, that would be very, very bad. Oh, wait, wait. What are the poll numbers in Florida?

Are you giving it -- you don't have to quote it to me. Are you giving it to -- I'm asking to you make a choice here.

STU: Yeah, and I've kind of leaned these things. Again, I would not bet money on any of these states because they're very much legitimate toss-ups.

GLENN: Yeah, I know that.

STU: But if I had gun to my head, right now, I would probably pick Florida -- I would lean Florida towards --

GLENN: Why? You said North Carolina is because of all the early voting, looks so favorable. Why would you put Florida into his --

PAT: You bastard, what are doing here? What are you trying to pull? What are you trying to pull?

JEFFY: Does someone -- does someone have a gun?

GLENN: What are you seeing that you're not sharing with us? Just your gut?

PAT: Yeah, you little liar.

STU: Yeah, yeah. Florida is -- let me give you -- Florida -- the percentage of winning on the election model is 51.3 percent Clinton, 48.7 percent Trump. Pure toss-up. North Carolina, 50.5 percent Clinton. 49.5 percent --

GLENN: Okay.

PAT: So she actually is ahead though still in both those states.

STU: According to the polls and demographics.

PAT: That's amazing.

STU: I also think North Carolina is --

PAT: He has to have those states.

STU: It's really not -- this is not a toss-up state. North Carolina should not be a toss-up state.

PAT: Right. Right.

STU: It was not a toss-up state. Mitt Romney won it comfortably. Barack Obama won it against McCain, but that was a blowout election. I think -- coming back to who North Carolina is, which is a red state, even though it's really more purpled lately. I think they probably will go there. The early vote supports that. Florida is a real toss-up, as it always is. You know, I'm thinking -- I don't know -- Trump has had a presence there for a long time. He's familiar to people. There's a lot of retired New Yorkers --

GLENN: He has no problem --

PAT: It's like that Sonic commercial with the two obnoxious guys who are always in those Sonic commercials. And they're talking about the two different worlds. And he's named the worlds that don't exist. Earth to Smerth, Florida.

(laughter)

STU: Yeah. Again, I'm purely guessing on these. They're toss-ups. They're in the toss-up column for a reason. It's impossible to know. But, you know, just as a gut, looking at all the information, I think Ohio, I'm also leaning it towards Trump. Trump, I think is going to win Ohio. Although, it's going to be close.

GLENN: I think so too.

STU: Nevada, the early vote looks bad for him. It's a state that --

GLENN: That's the Democratic machine.

STU: Yeah, right. The Reid machine is there, Romney lost it by seven, and the early vote looks bad.

PAT: So what if he loses Nevada but wins New Hampshire, does that get him there?

STU: No, it's not enough.

PAT: That's not enough?

STU: Yep. He'd have to win Nevada too.

PAT: So he has to win Nevada and Maine and all the rest and pick off New Hampshire.

GLENN: Holy cow.

PAT: It's hard.

GLENN: That's going to be a tough day tomorrow.

STU: It's there. He can do it.

PAT: Maybe.

GLENN: He can. But it is threading the needle at 8 miles an hour. Back in a second with what else is on your ballot.

Glenn Beck: Here's why MAJOR companies are going all-out woke over Georgia's voting laws

Countless corporations — from Delta Air Lines, Coca-Cola, and Porsche to UPS and LinkedIn — are calling out the Georgia voting laws, calling them "restrictive," "racist," and "discriminative." Meanwhile, words like "stakeholder" and "equitable" are starting to show up in their arguments.

On the radio program, Glenn Beck gave the "decoder ring" for what's really going on here, because our society is being completely redesigned in front of our eyes.

There's a reason why all these big businesses are speaking out now, and it has very little to do with genuine ideology, Glenn explained. It's all about ESG scores and forcing "compliance" through the monetization of social justice.

Glenn went on to detail exactly what ESG scores are, how they're calculated, and why these social credit scores explain the latest moves from "woke" companies.

Watch the video below to hear Glenn break it down:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Who is the REAL Jesus? THIS is what America needs to hear today

Dallas Jenkins is a storyteller — and he's telling the most important story of all time in a way that many believed was impossible.

Jenkins is the creator of "The Chosen," a free, crowdfunded series about the life of Jesus that rivals Hollywood productions. And Season 2 could not have arrived at a better time — on Easter weekend 2021. Church attendance has dropped, people are hungry for something bigger than all of us, and many are choosing social justice activism, political parties, or even the climate change movement as "religions" over God.

This Easter weekend, Jenkins joined Glenn on the "Glenn Beck Podcast" to discuss the aspects of Jesus that often get overlooked and break through the misconceptions about who Jesus really is to paint a clear picture of why America needs Emmanuel, "God with us," now more than ever.

Watch the full podcast below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Lara Logan: Biden's border crisis is enabling the 'MOST POWERFUL criminal organizations' on Earth

Award-winning investigative journalist Lara Logan joined Glenn Beck on the radio program this week to argue the Biden administration's border crisis is "enabling" drug cartels, allowing them to exploit migrants, use border wall construction roads, and cross the border much more easily.

Lara, who has witnessed and experienced firsthand some of the worst violence around the world as a war correspondent for CBS News, told Glenn it's "not an overstatement" to call the cartels in Mexico "the most violent and powerful criminal organizations on the face of the earth." And while they're "at war with us, we've been asleep at the wheel."

But Lara also offers solutions that the U.S. can enact to stop these horrific atrocities.

"There's more than 30,000 Mexican civilians who are massacred every year in Mexico by the cartels. And that's just the bodies that the Mexican government owns up to or knows about, right?" Lara said. "There's Mexicans buried in unmarked mass graves all across the country. I mean, everyone knows that the violence of the cartels is not like anything anyone has ever seen before. It even pales in comparison to, at times, to what terrorist groups like ISIS have done."

Lara went on to explain some of the unspeakable acts of violence and murder that occur at the hands of the Mexican cartels — 98% of which go uninvestigated.

"That's not unprosecuted, Glenn. That's uninvestigated," Lara emphasized. "[Cartels] operate with impunity. So the law enforcement guy, the policemen, the marine, the National Guardsmen, who are trying to do the right thing, who are not in the pocket of the cartels — what chance do those guys have? They've got no chance. You know where they end up? In one of those unmarked graves."

Watch the video below to catch more of the conversation:

(Content Warning: Disturbing content)



Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Comply or Die: How America Will Enforce TOTAL Wokeness

Have you noticed an insane number of companies "going woke" lately? There's a big reason for why this is happening NOW, and it's not just virtue-signaling. Big corporations, one by one, are pulling the trigger on an initiative that has been in the works for about a decade.

On Glenn TV this week, Glenn Beck exposes the framework that was built and inserted into business schools all across the countries. Critical race theory, gender, and "social justice" were given a higher priority than just doing good business.

Glenn has the documents that reveal what's coming to YOUR business or the company you work for and what will happen to companies that don't comply. And what started out as an indoctrination at the university level is now being taught in public schools K-12. They're teaching our kids to be equity activists right under our noses, and the indoctrination is working.

Watch the full episode below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.