Election by Numbers: The Toss-up States Edition

November 07, 2016

WRITER

According to betting markets, George Bush had a 55 percent chance of winning in 2004. In 2008, Obama had a 90 percent chance of winning over McCain. In 2012, Obama had a 65 percent of beating Romney.

So what do the betting markets predict for 2016?

"Currently, right now, Hillary is actually ahead of where Obama was in 2008," Co-host Stu Burguiere said.

Hillary is touted as having about a 91 or 92 percent chance of winning, but several toss-up states could play a key role in the outcome.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these questions:

• Should North Carolina be a toss-up state?

• Is Stu lying?

• What's like threading the needle at 8 miles an hour?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: All right. So we've already seen the latest poll numbers in North Carolina. And I would put North Carolina into the lean Republican out of the toss-up. I mean, if that -- if we can do that here.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: I would take North Carolina and say, "Let's give it to him."

STU: Right. Kept him on that side, yes.

GLENN: Florida.

STU: Florida, honestly, the early vote looks fairly good for Clinton. I've kind of always believed for some reason Trump was going to pull off Florida. He has a lot of connections down there.

You know, it's always -- it's always a razor sharp, you know, sort of election. I don't know why, but I've been thinking he's going to win that one. The early vote though has really activated Hispanics on this particular case.

PAT: Yeah. And that sounds like it bodes well for Clinton.

STU: It does.

GLENN: That's not good --

STU: I'm still leaving that one as a toss-up.

GLENN: But you also have the Cubans in Miami that should be fearful --

STU: They're Republicans most of the time.

GLENN: IF they flip this time, that would be very, very bad. Oh, wait, wait. What are the poll numbers in Florida?

Are you giving it -- you don't have to quote it to me. Are you giving it to -- I'm asking to you make a choice here.

STU: Yeah, and I've kind of leaned these things. Again, I would not bet money on any of these states because they're very much legitimate toss-ups.

GLENN: Yeah, I know that.

STU: But if I had gun to my head, right now, I would probably pick Florida -- I would lean Florida towards --

GLENN: Why? You said North Carolina is because of all the early voting, looks so favorable. Why would you put Florida into his --

PAT: You bastard, what are doing here? What are you trying to pull? What are you trying to pull?

JEFFY: Does someone -- does someone have a gun?

GLENN: What are you seeing that you're not sharing with us? Just your gut?

PAT: Yeah, you little liar.

STU: Yeah, yeah. Florida is -- let me give you -- Florida -- the percentage of winning on the election model is 51.3 percent Clinton, 48.7 percent Trump. Pure toss-up. North Carolina, 50.5 percent Clinton. 49.5 percent --

GLENN: Okay.

PAT: So she actually is ahead though still in both those states.

STU: According to the polls and demographics.

PAT: That's amazing.

STU: I also think North Carolina is --

PAT: He has to have those states.

STU: It's really not -- this is not a toss-up state. North Carolina should not be a toss-up state.

PAT: Right. Right.

STU: It was not a toss-up state. Mitt Romney won it comfortably. Barack Obama won it against McCain, but that was a blowout election. I think -- coming back to who North Carolina is, which is a red state, even though it's really more purpled lately. I think they probably will go there. The early vote supports that. Florida is a real toss-up, as it always is. You know, I'm thinking -- I don't know -- Trump has had a presence there for a long time. He's familiar to people. There's a lot of retired New Yorkers --

GLENN: He has no problem --

PAT: It's like that Sonic commercial with the two obnoxious guys who are always in those Sonic commercials. And they're talking about the two different worlds. And he's named the worlds that don't exist. Earth to Smerth, Florida.

(laughter)

STU: Yeah. Again, I'm purely guessing on these. They're toss-ups. They're in the toss-up column for a reason. It's impossible to know. But, you know, just as a gut, looking at all the information, I think Ohio, I'm also leaning it towards Trump. Trump, I think is going to win Ohio. Although, it's going to be close.

GLENN: I think so too.

STU: Nevada, the early vote looks bad for him. It's a state that --

GLENN: That's the Democratic machine.

STU: Yeah, right. The Reid machine is there, Romney lost it by seven, and the early vote looks bad.

PAT: So what if he loses Nevada but wins New Hampshire, does that get him there?

STU: No, it's not enough.

PAT: That's not enough?

STU: Yep. He'd have to win Nevada too.

PAT: So he has to win Nevada and Maine and all the rest and pick off New Hampshire.

GLENN: Holy cow.

PAT: It's hard.

GLENN: That's going to be a tough day tomorrow.

STU: It's there. He can do it.

PAT: Maybe.

GLENN: He can. But it is threading the needle at 8 miles an hour. Back in a second with what else is on your ballot.

99% see THROUGH media’s L.A. riot cover-up

Barbara Davidson / Contributor | Getty Images

Glenn asked for YOUR take on the Los Angeles anti-ICE riots, and YOU responded with a thunderous verdict. Your answers to our recent Glennbeck.com poll cut through the establishment’s haze, revealing a profound skepticism of their narrative.

The results are undeniable: 98% of you believe taxpayer-funded NGOs are bankrolling these riots, a bold rejection of the claim that these are grassroots protests. Meanwhile, 99% dismiss the mainstream media’s coverage as woefully inadequate—can the official story survive such resounding doubt? And 99% of you view the involvement of socialist and Islamist groups as a growing threat to national security, signaling alarm at what Glenn calls a coordinated “Color Revolution” lurking beneath the surface.

You also stand firmly with decisive action: 99% support President Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to quell the chaos. These numbers defy the elite’s tired excuses and reflect a demand for truth and accountability. Are your tax dollars being weaponized to destabilize America? You’ve answered with conviction.

Your voice sends a powerful message to those who dismiss the unrest as mere “protests.” You spoke, and Glenn listened. Keep shaping the conversation at Glennbeck.com.

Want to make your voice heard? Check out more polls HERE.

EXPOSED: Your tax dollars FUND Marxist riots in LA

Anadolu / Contributor | Getty Images

Protesters wore Che shirts, waved foreign flags, and chanted Marxist slogans — but corporate media still peddles the ‘spontaneous outrage’ narrative.

I sat in front of the television this weekend, watching the glittering spectacle of corporate media do what it does best: tell me not to believe my lying eyes.

According to the polished news anchors, what I was witnessing in Los Angeles was “mostly peaceful protests.” They said it with all the earnest gravitas of someone reading a bedtime story, while behind them the streets looked like a deleted scene from “Mad Max.” Federal agents dodged concrete slabs as if it were an Olympic sport. A man in a Che Guevara crop top tried to set a police car on fire. Dumpster fires lit the night sky like some sort of postapocalyptic luau.

If you suggest that violent criminals should be deported or imprisoned, you’re painted as the extremist.

But sure, it was peaceful. Tear gas clouds and Molotov cocktails are apparently the incense and candles of this new civic religion.

The media expects us to play along — to nod solemnly while cities burn and to call it “activism.”

Let’s call this what it is: delusion.

Another ‘peaceful’ riot

If the Titanic “mostly floated” and the Hindenburg “mostly flew,” then yes, the latest L.A. riots are “mostly peaceful.” But history tends to care about those tiny details at the end — like icebergs and explosions.

The coverage was full of phrases like “spontaneous,” “grassroots,” and “organic,” as if these protests materialized from thin air. But many of the signs and banners looked like they’d been run off at ComradesKinkos.com — crisp print jobs with slogans promoting socialism, communism, and various anti-American regimes. Palestinian flags waved beside banners from Mexico, Venezuela, Cuba, and El Salvador. It was like someone looted a United Nations souvenir shop and turned it into a revolution starter pack.

And guess who funded it? You did.

According to at least one report, much of this so-called spontaneous rage fest was paid for with your tax dollars. Tens of millions of dollars from the Biden administration ensured your paycheck funded Trotsky cosplayers chucking firebombs at local coffee shops.

The same aging radicals from the 1970s — now armed with tenure, pensions, and book deals — are cheering from the sidelines, waxing poetic about how burning a squad car is “liberation.” These are the same folks who once wore tie-dye and flew to help guerrilla fighters and now applaud chaos under the banner of “progress.”

This is not progress. It is not protest. It’s certainly not justice or peace.

It’s an attempt to dismantle the American system — and if you dare say that out loud, you’re labeled a bigot, a fascist, or, worst of all, someone who notices reality.

And what sparked this taxpayer-funded riot? Enforcement against illegal immigrants — many of whom, according to official arrest records, are repeat violent offenders. These are not the “dreamers” or the huddled masses yearning to breathe free. These are criminals with long, violent rap sheets — allowed to remain free by a broken system that prioritizes ideology over public safety.

Photo by Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg | Getty Images

This is what people are rioting over — not the mistreatment of the innocent, but the arrest of the guilty. And in California, that’s apparently a cause for outrage.

The average American, according to Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, is supposed to worry they’ll be next. But unless you’re in the habit of assaulting people, smuggling, or firing guns into people’s homes, you probably don’t have much to fear.

Still, if you suggest that violent criminals should be deported or imprisoned, you’re painted as the extremist.

The left has lost it

This is what happens when a culture loses its grip on reality. We begin to call arson “art,” lawlessness “liberation,” and criminals “community members.” We burn the good and excuse the evil — all while the media insists it’s just “vibes.”

But it’s not just vibes. It’s violence, paid for by you, endorsed by your elected officials, and whitewashed by newsrooms with more concern for hair and lighting than for truth.

This isn’t activism. This is anarchism. And Democratic politicians are fueling the flame.

This article originally appeared on TheBlaze.com.

Glenn Beck's 'No King but Christ' merch: Will faith STOP the chaos?

On Saturday, June 14, 2025 (President Trump's 79th birthday), the "No Kings" protest—a noisy spectacle orchestrated by progressive heavyweights like Randi Weingarten and her union cronies—will take place in Washington, D.C.

Thousands will chant "no thrones, no crowns, no king," claiming to fend off authoritarianism and corruption.

But let’s cut through the noise. The protesters' grievances—rigged courts, deported citizens, slashed services—are a house of cards. Zero Americans have been deported, Federal services are still bloated, and if anyone is rigging the courts, it's the Left. So why rally now, especially with riots already flaring in L.A.?

Chaos isn’t a side effect here—it’s the plan.

This is not about liberty; it's a power grab dressed up as resistance. The "No Kings" crowd wants you to buy their script: government’s the enemy—unless they’re the ones running it. It's the identical script from 2020: same groups, same tactics, same goal, different name.

But Glenn is flipping the script. He's dropping a new "No Kings but Christ" merch line, just in time for the protest. Merch that proclaims one truth: no earthly ruler owns us; only Christ does. It’s a bold, faith-rooted rejection of this secular circus.

Why should you care? Because this won’t just be a rally—it’ll be a symptom. Distrust in institutions is sky-high, and rightly so, but the "No Kings" answer is a hollow shout into the void. Glenn’s merch begs the question: if you’re ditching kings, who’s really in charge? Get yours and wear the answer proudly.

Truth unleashed: 95% say media’s excuses for anti-Semitism are a LIE

ELI IMADALI / Contributor | Getty Images

Glenn asked for YOUR take on the rising tide of anti-Semitism, and you delivered. After the Boulder attack, you made it clear: this isn’t just a news story—it’s a crisis the elites are dodging.

Your verdict is unmistakable: 96% of you see anti-Semitism as a growing threat in the U.S., brushing aside the establishment’s weak excuses. The spin does not fool you—95% say the media is deliberately downplaying the issue, hiding a cultural rot that’s all too real. And the government’s response? A whopping 95% of you call it a disgraceful failure, leaving communities exposed.

Your voices shatter the silence. Why should we trust narratives that dismiss your concerns? With 97% of you warning that anti-Semitism will surge in the years ahead, you’re demanding action and accountability. This is your stand for truth.

You spoke, and Glenn listened. Your bold response sends a message to those who’d rather ignore the problem. Keep raising your voice at Glennbeck.com—your input drives the fight for justice. Take part in the next poll and continue shaping the conversation.