Election by Numbers: Stu's Final Count

Most polls and pundits are predicting a Hillary win tonight. What about Stu Burguiere, co-host of The Glenn Beck Program and poll aficionado?

"Stu's final board for the electoral college is being put together right now," Glenn said Tuesday on his radio program.

Making a few last-minute calculations, Stu revealed his final predictions for the Electoral College vote count.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these nail-biting questions:

• Which state is Stu hedging on?

• Did Hillary make it into the Douche Hall of Fame?

• Does Glenn predict a blowout or razor-thin win?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: Stu, you want to give us one more look at the -- I know they're making all new maps for us tonight and everything. We have our coverage beginning at 7 o'clock Eastern. We are going to be looking at some of it as we go on. We'll be looking at some of the -- the -- the funnier or the crazier moments of this election. Because this election has been crazy from the beginning. And so we're looking for you on the feed. I know Jeffy is asking people on the feed. You probably tweet them to Stu show. Is that right? Stu show?

STU: Oh. @worldofStu.

GLENN: @worldofStu. And you can tweet @worldofStu for the craziest moments that you would like us to cover tonight and play clips from, as we watch this thing unfold.

I'm going to be on with NBC tonight and Tom Brokaw at -- on NBC, not MSNBC, but NBC, tonight at 10:00 something or other. I begin with them. But I'm also going to be covering it here on TheBlaze. And it's going to be radically different coverage here. But Stu is going to be looking at all of the exit polling and everything else, as he does for us every year. And he was very, very right last year. He was the only one in this -- on this show. We called him the little black rain cloud. He was the only one on this show that got it right. We wanted so desperately to believe.

STU: You know, it's a weird situation. And there's some -- if you are a Trump fan, you can look at some positives, as opposed to what happened to Romney. Because Romney was very close. Closer to Trump in the national polls. But the idea that Hillary could actually lose with -- in a close election is possible still.

If you go through -- someone went through and put the -- all the RealClearPolitics Averages into an electoral map, and it was like one state away, 272-266 or something, with Hillary.

GLENN: Wow.

STU: So it could be that close. There are states that Trump is winning by .2 percent that he's getting credit for in there. Of course, that's the way the system works. So he would get credit for those.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: But they're just very unsure.

GLENN: It depends on who shows up today.

STU: It really does. You know, there's a -- there's a -- one of the arguments for Trump is, basically we've seen the story of two different groups: Hispanic voters, very activated, going out to vote in record numbers. Black voters, not as excited about this one. They were excited about Barack Obama, not as excited here. So their vote has fallen off a little bit.

The issue with that is Hispanic voters are very -- about half of Hispanic voters are located in two states. And neither of those two states are swing states, at least usually, California and Texas.

So the fact that they're very active may not do anything for either of them. And that's half of the population, roughly. So that's a big deal. However, a couple of states, something like Nevada could really easily be swung. We talked about some of the early voting data there. And it's not promising if you are a Trump supporter in -- in Nevada.

GLENN: Could I give you first what I heard today from internal polling? Put it up on the board and show me.

Let's give North Carolina -- they say it's too close to call in internal polling. Let's give North Carolina to Trump

STU: Okay.

GLENN: Let's give Maine to Trump.

STU: Okay. That's Maine, by the way, just the one district.

GLENN: Yeah, one district. Let's give Florida to Clinton.

STU: Florida, Clinton.

GLENN: Ohio to Trump.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: Nevada, I don't have any information on, so I'm going to give it to Clinton. And let's give Michigan to Trump, out of the Clinton pile.

STU: Wow. That's an interesting map.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: Well, let's see. You would have -- the only thing we really changed here --

GLENN: Michigan and Florida.

STU: Yeah. I mean, problem is -- so you're gaining 29 for Hillary. You're pulling out 16 and you're pulling -- you're only losing 17 -- that would be worse for --

GLENN: Let me give New Hampshire too, to Trump.

STU: Again, I don't think that gets you there because new Hampshire is only four electoral votes. So you're pulling over 200 --

GLENN: Okay. That's being as generous -- okay. Now give Florida.

STU: Yeah, if he gets Florida with this, he definitely wins.

GLENN: He definitely wins.

STU: The issue is, he cannot lose Florida. To me -- realistically, he can't lose Florida or North Carolina. Either one of those states, he loses. It's over. Because --

GLENN: How about Ohio?

STU: Ohio, he -- I'm kind of counting that for him. While it's still pretty much

technically a swing state --

GLENN: Okay. They're counting.

STU: -- you can't get anywhere Trump winning without Ohio. And he's actually winning the polls there. So I expect him to win Ohio tonight, which is usually the biggest swing state. Ohio and Florida bounces back and forth.

North Carolina is not usually the biggest swing state. But it does seem to be this time. And North Carolina, I think the early voting actually looks fairly good for him. You can't predict states by early voting.

GLENN: Yeah. Today -- today, as of this morning, the Republicans are counting on North Carolina. They're counting on a win for the Senate. That will be the last Senate seat that will put them in charge of the Senate. They are not counting on Florida. They are counting on Michigan.

When I say counting, I should say, they think that it's in play and they could win it.

Maine. Ohio, they are counting on. Michigan, they believe they could win today. New Hampshire, they believe they're going to win. So it's only Florida that they think they're not going to win. And Nevada looks horrible, doesn't it?

STU: Nevada looks really bad. I mean, to give you a sense on Nevada, the early vote, the Democrats led by a large margin. Going into Election Day, all the assumptions that are pretty rational and probably pretty favorable for Trump -- if you take favorable assumptions, he needs to win today by about ten points.

Now, that is -- you know, Romney lost on Election Day in Nevada last time. Trump does not have the ground game that Hillary has. This is -- we've talked about this yesterday in that, in a way, Nevada has turned into one of the -- sort of like the new Michigan, in that like it's all -- it's all unions there now. The Reid machine in Nevada is still very powerful, and they think that they've been able to put that one away.

If you do that, it gets very difficult. Because then you're looking at picking off -- you know, probably the easiest map for him to get there was to win Nevada and then also win New Hampshire out of our leaning Democrat column because New Hampshire he actually had some really good polls. New Hampshire is difficult to poll. It's not a -- it's a very crazy sort of state with polling.

And, you know, maybe he's -- he would be able to pull that one out. There's a good Senate race there. So you would think a lot of Republicans would be activated to get out for that as well, even if they're not maybe huge Trump fans. So if he could pull that out and then get Maine's second district, he can get right to 270. But without Nevada, that's not possible. You know, assuming he doesn't pick off some other more unlikely state.

So right now, he's in a position where it is -- there is no room for error. And he needs to really go beyond that.

GLENN: What are the states -- what are the absolute firewall states that we're going to be seeing first tonight? That if he loses -- like, we won't know Florida until at least 9 o'clock.

STU: Right. It's going to take a long time -- they called it -- it took four days for them to call it last time.

GLENN: God help --

STU: So that's -- it's going to -- you're not going to get any Florida calls, really. I mean, that takes a long time.

GLENN: Really?

STU: But that's the thing, if you get a call of one of those two states early, it will basically be over. They will not make the mistake of 2000 and call that thing super early without knowing for sure.

GLENN: Right.

STU: At least you would expect they wouldn't.

GLENN: But if it's called early for Trump, that's good.

STU: Oh, yeah. If it's called early for Trump, he's in it. But it's not enough for him.

GLENN: No, I know that. But if it's called early, it might mean that he has such a groundswell that, you know, the people are showing up and -- I mean, right now, he is, in internal polling, behind in Florida by two. And so if they call it early, it means that there was a real groundswell, that that thing might have been four or five points off.

STU: And right when we get on with Blaze coverage tonight, we will go into this. Because what you're getting out of early closings on the east coast is not how the election -- you're not going to get a sense of, "It's over." You get a sense of what the environment is. The environment tends to set up basically the same way around the country. If Donald Trump is going to win this, he's going to be activating a lot of voters that aren't showing up in polling for some reason.

GLENN: Right.

STU: If that happens, you'll see it right away in these states.

GLENN: What should we look for in exit polls today, early? Because, remember, by 4 o'clock in last -- in 2012 -- now, we didn't say this, but by 4 o'clock in the afternoon in 2012, we know -- we knew who was going to win. Pretty sure.

We didn't want to believe it. But we were pretty sure because of the exit polling.

STU: Exit polls -- some exit polls leaked. However, exit polls leaked for Kerry in 2004, which showed him winning. So, I mean --

GLENN: No, it wasn't the leaked stuff that we saw. It was, we saw internal stuff. Remember? We were -- we were tipped off.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: And we were like, "What?" But we didn't believe it.

STU: Right. Right. Right.

But, you know, what I'm saying, those exit polls that were leaked were legitimate, just wrong. Exit polling is difficult to do. You're polling before polls are even closed. There's a lot of, you know, messiness when it comes to that stuff. Of course, I'm going to sit here and obsess about it all day, obviously. I can sit here and stare at every one of them, but you have to take all of that with a big grain of salt.

So I think if you see early on indications that Trump is doing a good job, bringing out white voters from -- from outside of the normal sort of Republican base, voters who are, you know, blue color Democrats.

GLENN: I think you'll see that in Ohio.

STU: In Michigan, there's one county where everyone points to, which is the Reagan Democrat county: Macomb, I guess I think it is. And they always say that's the Reagan Democrat -- every analyst says the same thing: That's the Reagan Democrat county.

If you see that coming out and that swinging towards Trump heavily, you'll get an indication that he's actually activating those voters.

And if he does that, he has a chance to win. Again, this early voting data just says, if there are Republicans or Democrats that have come out, not if they're winning the vote. If every Democrat came out and voted for Trump, it would look the same way.

So they're assuming that all the Democrats are coming out and voting for Clinton. Maybe they won't.

GLENN: Hold on just a second. I have Blake in Missouri who just voted. He wants to tell us his vote. Go ahead, Blake.

CALLER: Yeah, Glenn. I know you guys are focusing on the election between Clinton and Trump. And that's all important, I guess. But I think we really need to talk about what happened yesterday on the Pat & Stu show, when I had the honorable pleasure of partaking in the vote to put Hillary Clinton in the Douche Hall of Fame.

PAT: Thank you. That's incredibly important.

STU: Wow.

JEFFY: Thank you.

GLENN: So you did vote for Hillary Clinton. I want all your friends to know that.

CALLER: I absolutely did vote for Hillary Clinton.

PAT: Yeah. And she made it. She made it into the Douche Hall of Fame. To her credit, she got a surprisingly low 98 percent.

GLENN: Wow.

PAT: Surprising.

STU: Yeah.

CALLER: Yeah, I was -- I was disappointed. I was hoping for that 100 percent, but it just didn't happen.

STU: Our models all showed 99.2 percent, and it just didn't happen.

PAT: It just didn't happen.

[break]

GLENN: Stu's final board for the electoral college is being put together right now.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: And it is final, 308 for Hillary Clinton and for Donald Trump --

STU: 230.

PAT: Why do you want Hillary to win!

JEFFY: Why?

PAT: Why do you want Hillary to win! Why! I knew it. I knew it. I knew you wanted Hillary to win! Why?

GLENN: 230?

PAT: Hillary! Win! Why!

STU: Florida, I'm really hedging on, but it doesn't make a difference in the outcome. I -- I had Florida on one column. I just moved it over right before we came back.

PAT: It's just a matter of, is it a bigger win?

STU: Yeah. Right.

GLENN: 230-278.

STU: Right. It wouldn't make a difference for Hillary.

GLENN: For Hillary, it won't make a difference.

JEFFY: Wow.

GLENN: We'll see you tonight.

STU: I wouldn't be --

GLENN: I wouldn't be surprised if it was a blowout or if it was razor thin sharp.

PAT: Either way, get out and vote.

Featured Image:

A new Pew Research Center report shows the death toll in the United States from COVID-19 is "heavily concentrated" in Democratic congressional districts.

According to the analysis, more than half of all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. occurred in just 44 (approximately 10 percent of) congressional districts, and 41 of those 44 hardest-hit districts are represented by Democrats, while only three are represented by Republicans.

"A new Pew Research Center analysis of data on official reports of COVID-19 deaths, collected by the John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, finds that, as of last week, nearly a quarter of all the deaths in the United States attributed to the coronavirus have been in just 12 congressional districts – all located in New York City and represented by Democrats in Congress. Of the more than 92,000 Americans who had died of COVID-19 as of May 20 (the date that the data in this analysis was collected), nearly 75,000 were in Democratic congressional districts," Pew reported.

Filling in for Glenn Beck on the radio program this week, Pat Gray and Stu Burguiere argued that, while the coronavirus should never have been made into a partisan issue, the study certainly makes a strong statement in favor of GOP leadership.

Watch the video below:


Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multiplatform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) once predicted the coronavirus death rate would be between 4 and 5 percent, but they've just come out with a new report and those predictions have been adjusted significantly.

According to the CDC's latest data, the fatality rate among Americans showing COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. And an estimated 35 percent who are infected by the virus will never have any symptoms. Therefore, the CDC is now estimating COVID-19 kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected.

Filling in for Glenn Beck on the radio program this week, Pat Gray and Stu Burguiere recalled when the mainstream media went into overdrive, hammering President Donald Trump for predicting the final COVID-19 death rate would be "under one percent."

Looks like the president was right all along.

Watch the video below to catch more of the conversation:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multiplatform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Michigan barber Karl Manke isn't a troublemaker. He's a law-abiding citizen who did everything possible to financially survive during the COVID-19 lockdown. pandemic. Eventually, he had no other option: he had to reopen his business in defiance of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's stay-at-home orders.

In an interview on the "Glenn Beck Radio Program," Manke, 77, told Glenn, "I'm not backing down" despite Whitmer's seemingly vindictive attempts to shut down his business.

Shortly after reopening, Manke was ticketed for violating Whitmer's stay-at-home order and charged with a misdemeanor. When he still refused to close his doors, the governor's office went a step further and suspended his barber license.

"It's kind of a vindictive thing," said Manke. "I've become a worm in her brain ... and she is going full force, illegally, when legislatures told her that she was out of place and this was not her assignment, she decided to take it anyway."

On Thursday, the Shiawassee County Circuit Judge refused to issue a preliminary injunction against Manke. Read more on this update here.

Watch the video clip from the interview below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multiplatform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.

Time after time, Americans have taken to the streets to defend our constitutional rights, whether it was our livelihood at stake -- or our lives. But, what was the point of all the civil rights movements that came before, if we're about to let the government take our rights away now?

On his Wednesday night special, Glenn Beck argued that Americans are tired of having our rights trampled by "tyrannical" leaders from state and local governments who are ignoring our unalienable rights during this pandemic.

"Our nanny state has gone too far. The men and women in office -- the ones closest to our communities, our towns, our cities -- are now taking advantage of our fear," Glenn said. "Like our brothers and sisters of the past, we need to start making the decisions that will put our destiny, and our children's destiny, back into our hands."

It took less than two months of the coronavirus tyranny to make America unrecognizable, but some Americans are fighting back, risking losing their jobs and businesses or even jail time, as they battle to take back our civil rights.

Here are just a few of their stories:

After New Jersey's Atilis Gym reopened in defiance of the governor's executive order, the Department of Health shut them down for "posing a threat to the public health." Co-owner Ian Smith says somebody sabotaged the gym's toilets with enire rolls of paper to create the public health "threat."

Oregon Salon owner, Lindsey Graham, was fined $14 thousand for reopening. She said she was visited by numerous government organizations, including Child Protective Services, in what she believes are bullying tactics straight from the governor's office.

77-year-old Michigan barber, Karl Manke, refused to close his shop even when facing arrest. "I couldn't go another 30 days without an income," he said. But when local police refused to arrest him, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's (D) office suspending his business license instead.

Port of Seattle police officer Greg Anderson was suspended after he spoke out against enforcing what he called "tyrannical orders" imposed amid coronavirus lockdowns.

Kentucky mother-of-seven, Mary Sabbatino, found herself under investigation for alleged child abuse after breaking social distancing rules at a bank. After a social worker from child protective services determined there was no sign of abuse, he still sought to investigate why the Sabbatino's are homeschooling, and how they can give "adequate attention to that many children."

Dallas salon owner Shelley Luther was sentenced to seven days in jail after she defied the state-mandated stay-at-home orders to reopen her business.

Watch the video clip from Glenn's special below:


Watch the full special on BlazeTV YouTube here.

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn's masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multiplatform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.