Election by Numbers: Stu's Final Count

Most polls and pundits are predicting a Hillary win tonight. What about Stu Burguiere, co-host of The Glenn Beck Program and poll aficionado?

"Stu's final board for the electoral college is being put together right now," Glenn said Tuesday on his radio program.

Making a few last-minute calculations, Stu revealed his final predictions for the Electoral College vote count.

Read below or watch the clip for answers to these nail-biting questions:

• Which state is Stu hedging on?

• Did Hillary make it into the Douche Hall of Fame?

• Does Glenn predict a blowout or razor-thin win?

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors:

GLENN: Stu, you want to give us one more look at the -- I know they're making all new maps for us tonight and everything. We have our coverage beginning at 7 o'clock Eastern. We are going to be looking at some of it as we go on. We'll be looking at some of the -- the -- the funnier or the crazier moments of this election. Because this election has been crazy from the beginning. And so we're looking for you on the feed. I know Jeffy is asking people on the feed. You probably tweet them to Stu show. Is that right? Stu show?

STU: Oh. @worldofStu.

GLENN: @worldofStu. And you can tweet @worldofStu for the craziest moments that you would like us to cover tonight and play clips from, as we watch this thing unfold.

I'm going to be on with NBC tonight and Tom Brokaw at -- on NBC, not MSNBC, but NBC, tonight at 10:00 something or other. I begin with them. But I'm also going to be covering it here on TheBlaze. And it's going to be radically different coverage here. But Stu is going to be looking at all of the exit polling and everything else, as he does for us every year. And he was very, very right last year. He was the only one in this -- on this show. We called him the little black rain cloud. He was the only one on this show that got it right. We wanted so desperately to believe.

STU: You know, it's a weird situation. And there's some -- if you are a Trump fan, you can look at some positives, as opposed to what happened to Romney. Because Romney was very close. Closer to Trump in the national polls. But the idea that Hillary could actually lose with -- in a close election is possible still.

If you go through -- someone went through and put the -- all the RealClearPolitics Averages into an electoral map, and it was like one state away, 272-266 or something, with Hillary.

GLENN: Wow.

STU: So it could be that close. There are states that Trump is winning by .2 percent that he's getting credit for in there. Of course, that's the way the system works. So he would get credit for those.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: But they're just very unsure.

GLENN: It depends on who shows up today.

STU: It really does. You know, there's a -- there's a -- one of the arguments for Trump is, basically we've seen the story of two different groups: Hispanic voters, very activated, going out to vote in record numbers. Black voters, not as excited about this one. They were excited about Barack Obama, not as excited here. So their vote has fallen off a little bit.

The issue with that is Hispanic voters are very -- about half of Hispanic voters are located in two states. And neither of those two states are swing states, at least usually, California and Texas.

So the fact that they're very active may not do anything for either of them. And that's half of the population, roughly. So that's a big deal. However, a couple of states, something like Nevada could really easily be swung. We talked about some of the early voting data there. And it's not promising if you are a Trump supporter in -- in Nevada.

GLENN: Could I give you first what I heard today from internal polling? Put it up on the board and show me.

Let's give North Carolina -- they say it's too close to call in internal polling. Let's give North Carolina to Trump

STU: Okay.

GLENN: Let's give Maine to Trump.

STU: Okay. That's Maine, by the way, just the one district.

GLENN: Yeah, one district. Let's give Florida to Clinton.

STU: Florida, Clinton.

GLENN: Ohio to Trump.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: Nevada, I don't have any information on, so I'm going to give it to Clinton. And let's give Michigan to Trump, out of the Clinton pile.

STU: Wow. That's an interesting map.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: Well, let's see. You would have -- the only thing we really changed here --

GLENN: Michigan and Florida.

STU: Yeah. I mean, problem is -- so you're gaining 29 for Hillary. You're pulling out 16 and you're pulling -- you're only losing 17 -- that would be worse for --

GLENN: Let me give New Hampshire too, to Trump.

STU: Again, I don't think that gets you there because new Hampshire is only four electoral votes. So you're pulling over 200 --

GLENN: Okay. That's being as generous -- okay. Now give Florida.

STU: Yeah, if he gets Florida with this, he definitely wins.

GLENN: He definitely wins.

STU: The issue is, he cannot lose Florida. To me -- realistically, he can't lose Florida or North Carolina. Either one of those states, he loses. It's over. Because --

GLENN: How about Ohio?

STU: Ohio, he -- I'm kind of counting that for him. While it's still pretty much

technically a swing state --

GLENN: Okay. They're counting.

STU: -- you can't get anywhere Trump winning without Ohio. And he's actually winning the polls there. So I expect him to win Ohio tonight, which is usually the biggest swing state. Ohio and Florida bounces back and forth.

North Carolina is not usually the biggest swing state. But it does seem to be this time. And North Carolina, I think the early voting actually looks fairly good for him. You can't predict states by early voting.

GLENN: Yeah. Today -- today, as of this morning, the Republicans are counting on North Carolina. They're counting on a win for the Senate. That will be the last Senate seat that will put them in charge of the Senate. They are not counting on Florida. They are counting on Michigan.

When I say counting, I should say, they think that it's in play and they could win it.

Maine. Ohio, they are counting on. Michigan, they believe they could win today. New Hampshire, they believe they're going to win. So it's only Florida that they think they're not going to win. And Nevada looks horrible, doesn't it?

STU: Nevada looks really bad. I mean, to give you a sense on Nevada, the early vote, the Democrats led by a large margin. Going into Election Day, all the assumptions that are pretty rational and probably pretty favorable for Trump -- if you take favorable assumptions, he needs to win today by about ten points.

Now, that is -- you know, Romney lost on Election Day in Nevada last time. Trump does not have the ground game that Hillary has. This is -- we've talked about this yesterday in that, in a way, Nevada has turned into one of the -- sort of like the new Michigan, in that like it's all -- it's all unions there now. The Reid machine in Nevada is still very powerful, and they think that they've been able to put that one away.

If you do that, it gets very difficult. Because then you're looking at picking off -- you know, probably the easiest map for him to get there was to win Nevada and then also win New Hampshire out of our leaning Democrat column because New Hampshire he actually had some really good polls. New Hampshire is difficult to poll. It's not a -- it's a very crazy sort of state with polling.

And, you know, maybe he's -- he would be able to pull that one out. There's a good Senate race there. So you would think a lot of Republicans would be activated to get out for that as well, even if they're not maybe huge Trump fans. So if he could pull that out and then get Maine's second district, he can get right to 270. But without Nevada, that's not possible. You know, assuming he doesn't pick off some other more unlikely state.

So right now, he's in a position where it is -- there is no room for error. And he needs to really go beyond that.

GLENN: What are the states -- what are the absolute firewall states that we're going to be seeing first tonight? That if he loses -- like, we won't know Florida until at least 9 o'clock.

STU: Right. It's going to take a long time -- they called it -- it took four days for them to call it last time.

GLENN: God help --

STU: So that's -- it's going to -- you're not going to get any Florida calls, really. I mean, that takes a long time.

GLENN: Really?

STU: But that's the thing, if you get a call of one of those two states early, it will basically be over. They will not make the mistake of 2000 and call that thing super early without knowing for sure.

GLENN: Right.

STU: At least you would expect they wouldn't.

GLENN: But if it's called early for Trump, that's good.

STU: Oh, yeah. If it's called early for Trump, he's in it. But it's not enough for him.

GLENN: No, I know that. But if it's called early, it might mean that he has such a groundswell that, you know, the people are showing up and -- I mean, right now, he is, in internal polling, behind in Florida by two. And so if they call it early, it means that there was a real groundswell, that that thing might have been four or five points off.

STU: And right when we get on with Blaze coverage tonight, we will go into this. Because what you're getting out of early closings on the east coast is not how the election -- you're not going to get a sense of, "It's over." You get a sense of what the environment is. The environment tends to set up basically the same way around the country. If Donald Trump is going to win this, he's going to be activating a lot of voters that aren't showing up in polling for some reason.

GLENN: Right.

STU: If that happens, you'll see it right away in these states.

GLENN: What should we look for in exit polls today, early? Because, remember, by 4 o'clock in last -- in 2012 -- now, we didn't say this, but by 4 o'clock in the afternoon in 2012, we know -- we knew who was going to win. Pretty sure.

We didn't want to believe it. But we were pretty sure because of the exit polling.

STU: Exit polls -- some exit polls leaked. However, exit polls leaked for Kerry in 2004, which showed him winning. So, I mean --

GLENN: No, it wasn't the leaked stuff that we saw. It was, we saw internal stuff. Remember? We were -- we were tipped off.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: And we were like, "What?" But we didn't believe it.

STU: Right. Right. Right.

But, you know, what I'm saying, those exit polls that were leaked were legitimate, just wrong. Exit polling is difficult to do. You're polling before polls are even closed. There's a lot of, you know, messiness when it comes to that stuff. Of course, I'm going to sit here and obsess about it all day, obviously. I can sit here and stare at every one of them, but you have to take all of that with a big grain of salt.

So I think if you see early on indications that Trump is doing a good job, bringing out white voters from -- from outside of the normal sort of Republican base, voters who are, you know, blue color Democrats.

GLENN: I think you'll see that in Ohio.

STU: In Michigan, there's one county where everyone points to, which is the Reagan Democrat county: Macomb, I guess I think it is. And they always say that's the Reagan Democrat -- every analyst says the same thing: That's the Reagan Democrat county.

If you see that coming out and that swinging towards Trump heavily, you'll get an indication that he's actually activating those voters.

And if he does that, he has a chance to win. Again, this early voting data just says, if there are Republicans or Democrats that have come out, not if they're winning the vote. If every Democrat came out and voted for Trump, it would look the same way.

So they're assuming that all the Democrats are coming out and voting for Clinton. Maybe they won't.

GLENN: Hold on just a second. I have Blake in Missouri who just voted. He wants to tell us his vote. Go ahead, Blake.

CALLER: Yeah, Glenn. I know you guys are focusing on the election between Clinton and Trump. And that's all important, I guess. But I think we really need to talk about what happened yesterday on the Pat & Stu show, when I had the honorable pleasure of partaking in the vote to put Hillary Clinton in the Douche Hall of Fame.

PAT: Thank you. That's incredibly important.

STU: Wow.

JEFFY: Thank you.

GLENN: So you did vote for Hillary Clinton. I want all your friends to know that.

CALLER: I absolutely did vote for Hillary Clinton.

PAT: Yeah. And she made it. She made it into the Douche Hall of Fame. To her credit, she got a surprisingly low 98 percent.

GLENN: Wow.

PAT: Surprising.

STU: Yeah.

CALLER: Yeah, I was -- I was disappointed. I was hoping for that 100 percent, but it just didn't happen.

STU: Our models all showed 99.2 percent, and it just didn't happen.

PAT: It just didn't happen.

[break]

GLENN: Stu's final board for the electoral college is being put together right now.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: And it is final, 308 for Hillary Clinton and for Donald Trump --

STU: 230.

PAT: Why do you want Hillary to win!

JEFFY: Why?

PAT: Why do you want Hillary to win! Why! I knew it. I knew it. I knew you wanted Hillary to win! Why?

GLENN: 230?

PAT: Hillary! Win! Why!

STU: Florida, I'm really hedging on, but it doesn't make a difference in the outcome. I -- I had Florida on one column. I just moved it over right before we came back.

PAT: It's just a matter of, is it a bigger win?

STU: Yeah. Right.

GLENN: 230-278.

STU: Right. It wouldn't make a difference for Hillary.

GLENN: For Hillary, it won't make a difference.

JEFFY: Wow.

GLENN: We'll see you tonight.

STU: I wouldn't be --

GLENN: I wouldn't be surprised if it was a blowout or if it was razor thin sharp.

PAT: Either way, get out and vote.

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The Senate Judiciary Committee was set to vote on subpoenas to compel Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg to testify on alleged censorship and bias across their platforms. But that all changed when Republican committee members "expressed reservation about the maneuver," Politico reports.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who chairs Judiciary's Subcommittee on the Constitution, was definitely not one of the committee members with cold feet. On the radio program Tuesday, he told Glenn Beck that he's fighting "vociferously" to ensure Dorsey and others testify before the November 3rd election.

"Jack Dorsey and Mark Zuckerberg are both going to testify. They're are going to testify in person. They're going to testify before Election Day. That's what I think should happen," Cruz said. "That's what I'm fighting vociferously to happen. Right now, the companies are negotiating with the chairman's office to discuss terms to come voluntarily. I don't give a damn whether they come voluntarily or under subpoena. They need to testify in person and answer questions for the American people about why they are trying to steal this election, to suppress the free speech, and to censor the press."

The subpoenas would require Big Tech leaders to testify on the alleged "suppression and/or censorship" of two consecutive blockbuster stories from the New York Post. The first story was about emails that allegedly came from Hunter Biden's computer which are currently being investigated by the FBI, and the second was based on additional emails that allegedly showed communist China directly offering millions of dollars to then-Vice President Joe Biden.

"Big Tech stepped in, and they've done something they've never done before," Cruz explained. "We know that Big Tech has been censoring individual conservatives, trying to suppress conservative speech. But the step they took here is, they blocked if any individual user tried to share either of the New York Post stories, [they] were blocked ... Sharing a news story, from a major media outlet is part of democracy, part of free speech. And not only that, they blocked the New York Post itself. Right now, today, the New York Post is not being allowed to post its own damn stories on corruption. This is ridiculous. It's a threshold that's never been crossed before, of Silicon Valley oligarchs declaring the authority to determine what the press is allowed to report, and who is allowed to see it."

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If we learned nothing from the media over the past 4 years it's that colluding with a foreign entity to either win an election or for personal gain is absolutely grotesque. Well, that depends on whether you have a (D) or (R) before your name anyway. President Trump was impeached on rumor and innuendo yet Joe Biden has all but skated on his corruption up to this point.

Below is a timeline that shows the level of corruption and the lengths the Biden's went to in order to build that family's wealth and influence internationally.

2009

In 2009, Joe Biden was the brand-new Vice President and John Kerry was a U.S. Senator. Just five months after Joe was sworn in, his son Hunter, and Kerry's stepson, Christopher Heinz, formed an international private equity firm called Rosemont Capital. It had several different branches, including one called Rosemont Seneca Partners.

2010

Just nine months after Rosemont Seneca opened its doors, Hunter Biden went to China for meetings with executives from China's biggest banks, and its sovereign wealth and social security funds. That's unheard-of access for a brand-new firm. Was it just coincidence that at the same time Hunter was meeting these Chinese bigwigs, his dad was meeting with China's then-president Hu Jintao in Washington DC at a nuclear security summit?

2011

In May 2011, Joe Biden met with Chinese officials for the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue conference in Washington. Just two weeks later, Hunter Biden went to Taiwan for meetings with the same Chinese financial giants he'd met in China in 2010, plus some new ones.

2013

By December 2013, Joe Biden was enjoying his second term as VP, and John Kerry was now Secretary of State. That's when Joe traveled to Beijing on an extended official trip and Hunter traveled with him on Air Force Two.

During their stay, Vice President Biden met with President Xi and Hunter was mostly out of sight. We don't know exactly what he was up to, but the deal finalized between Rosemont Seneca and the Bank of China just ten days after the Bidens' trip pretty much gives it away. The most powerful financial institution in China formed a joint venture with tiny Rosemont Seneca to create a giant new investment firm called Bohai Harvest RST – the "RS" stands for Rosemont Seneca.

The firm is often called "BHR" for short.

Hunter Biden was a member of the Board. Remember, the Bank of China is government-owned, which means its business is completely intertwined with the goals of the Chinese Communist Party. BHR also got the freedom to operate in the newly created Shanghai Free-Trade Zone where, over the next six years, it would use $2.5 billion of Chinese government money to invest in China, as well as in other countries, including the U.S.

During their Beijing trip, Hunter also introduced Jonathan Li to his dad. Li is Hunter's business partner – he's CEO and Director of BHR.

Hunter arranged for Joe to meet Li in the lobby of the hotel where they stayed during their Beijing trip.

2014

In 2014, one of BHR's first major investments was in the China General Nuclear Power Corporation.

CGN is a Chinese government-owned nuclear power company that sold off a stake of the company to outside investors. Problem is, CGN was under FBI investigation for paying informants in the U.S. to steal nuclear secrets.

In 2016, the FBI arrested the ringleader of this nuclear espionage, a man named Allen Ho.

When they arrested Ho, he was using a random code generator to access funds being provided to him from – where else? – the Bank of China.

Yet while this FBI probe was going on, the son of the Vice President owned a stake in the company being investigated. And even after arrests were made, Rosemont Seneca did not alter its relationship with BHR, nor did it divest from CGN, even though it was stealing U.S. nuclear secrets.

2015

In 2015, BHR partnered with the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) to buy an American company called Henniges for $600 million.

AVIC is a gigantic military contractor in China – think Lockheed Martin – that makes fighter jets, bombers and drones. BHR bought 49% of Henniges and AVIC bought 51%.

Henniges is a precision parts manufacturer specializing in anti-vibration technology. The stuff they make is known as "dual use" by the U.S. State Department, which means the technology can also have a military application.

Because of that, the deal had to be approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) since it could have national security implications. The thing is, the American side of BHR – meaning Hunter Biden and his pals – had to know there were serious national security implications with AVIC.

The year before they formed a partnership with AVIC, the Wall Street Journal reported how AVIC stole technology related to the U.S. Air Force's F-35 stealth fighter and used it in its own stealth fighter for the Chinese.

How the Committee on Foreign Investment approved that deal remains a mystery. CFIUS does not publicly disclose any information regarding its decisions. Their findings are not publicly announced.

Interesting that China accounted for the largest share – with 74 transactions – approved by CFIUS during Obama's second term (2013-2015).

Under the umbrella of Rosemont Capital was a real estate company called Rosemont Realty. In 2015, a Chinese company called Gemini Investments bought a 75% stake in Rosemont Realty. The company was renamed Gemini Rosemont

Gemini brought $3 billion to the partnership with Rosemont, with the aim of buying "Class A institutional-quality commercial office properties in U.S. markets."

Red flag (literally) – Gemini Investments is a subsidiary of the China Ocean Shipping Company, a.k.a., "COSCO."

COSCO is a Chinese government-owned company. Its headquarters in Beijing is actually next to the headquarters of the Bank of China. COSCO is well-known for its close military ties. It's essentially a branch of the Chinese Navy.

2017

In 2017, BHR invested in Face++. That's the facial recognition phone app built by a Chinese company that is incorporated in a separate app built by the Chinese government. Police in the Xinjiang [Sin-jong] region of China use that app to keep tabs on citizens, and track and detain Uiguhr [Wee-ger] Muslims.

The app allows police easy access to data about Chinese Muslims including things like religious activity, blood type, and even the amount of electricity they use.

2018

In March 2018, a spokesman (Chris Bastardi) for Christopher Heinz (John Kerry's stepson) emailed The Hill to say that Heinz had "no operating role" in Rosemont Seneca, and that he was not involved in any of Rosemont's deals in China (which contradicts Schweizer's report in his book Secret Empires).

Chris Heinz was involved in Rosemont Capital. Rosemont Seneca was established under the same GP as Rosemont Capital, but Chris Heinz had no operating role in it. Chris and his family have no financial interest or investment in Bohai Harvest RST, he has never traveled to China, and he has never met with the firm's Chinese management team or investors.

2019

In October 2019, Hunter Biden's lawyer, George Mesires, said Hunter did not conduct any business on that 2013 trip to Beijing with his Dad.

Mesires said the timing of BHR's business license getting approved was purely coincidental because the paperwork had been submitted months before the Bidens' China trip.

According to Hunter's lawyer, the approval " was not related in any way, shape or form to Hunter's visit."

Hunter Biden finally stepped down from the BHR board last October (2019), but he DID NOT give up his 10% stake in the company.

When Bevan Cooney — the former "junior" business partner to Hunter Biden and Devon Archer — went to jail in 2019, investigative reporter and New York Times bestselling author Peter Schweizer thought he'd never gain access to the damning emails Cooney had promised. That all changed three weeks ago when Schweizer was given complete access to Cooney's gmail account.

Schweizer joined Glenn Beck on the radio program Tuesday to describe just some of the business deals revealed within these emails — like Hunter working with an alleged Russian criminal and with Chinese communists to secure their assets, or to secure one-on-one time with his dad, then-Vice President Joe Biden. And all of this new information is completely separate from the emails allegedly discovered on Hunter Biden's laptop recently reported by the New York Post.

"So, I want to make this clear. This [Cooney's emails] has nothing to do with what's on the laptop … It didn't come from [Rudy] Giuliani. It didn't come from anybody else, right?" Glenn asked Schweizer.

"That's absolutely correct," Schweizer confirmed.

He briefly explained how Cooney, a former Los Angeles nightclub owner, is currently serving a prison sentence for his involvement in a fraudulent business bond scheme with Biden and Archer. From prison, Cooney gave Schweizer written permission to access his Gmail account.

"This is really important," he noted. "We're not looking at printouts. Not looking at PDFs. We're actually in his Gmail accounts themselves, sifting through these emails. And there's a shocking amount of information about deals involving China, involving Russia, involving all sorts of things they were trying to pull off."

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The king of "No Spin" and bestselling author of "Killing Crazy Horse," Bill O'Reilly joined Glenn Beck on this week's podcast to talk about the latest developments in Joe Biden's Ukraine and China corruption scandal. Now that some of the details are finally coming out in the open, does the average Democrat care? Maybe, but the Left doesn't seem to.

O'Reilly argued there's more hatred for President Donald Trump now than in 2016, and that some people hate President Trump so much that they'd rather vote for the "senile, corrupt" Joe Biden.

"Hunter got tens of millions of dollars from Ukraine, from Russia, from China because his father was vice president. I have no doubt in my mind," O'Reilly said. "But the hatred for Donald Trump overrides that in the minds of millions of viewers. They're saying, 'You know, we'd rather have the senile corrupt guy than Trump.'"

Asked by Glenn if any other Republican running for president would be met with the same level of vitriol, O'Reilly answered, "The Left is the Left. They don't like America. The want to redo the Constitution. They want to take some of our freedoms, like the Second Amendment and the First Amendment, and change them. And they want to destroy capitalism and replace it with a big centralized government in Washington that controls the economy … but I'm talking about the folks. I have liberal friends and I say to them, 'Do you not understand that when you vote for Biden, you're voting against your own self interest?'"

Watch the video clip from the full podcast below, or find the full episode HERE:

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