Could Anyone Else in 2016's Crowded GOP Race Run for President Again?

It seems like a long time ago now, but do you remember 2016’s packed field of GOP candidates vying for the presidential nomination?

On today’s show, Pat and Jeffy named off as many as they could remember and debated whether any of the former candidates still have viable presidential aspirations after now-President Donald Trump beat them in front of the nation.

Could Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich or the dozen or so other options in 2016 revamp their public image to run again? Pat and Jeffy asserted that moderates like Jeb Bush and John Kasich are done. They also thought Cruz and Rubio might have been too thoroughly branded with Trump’s monikers for voters to take them seriously.

This article provided courtesy of TheBlaze.

PAT: Looking back at the 2016 race of the people that he rightly claims he destroyed. It was a talented field. And he won. And Steve Bannon doesn't -- didn't understand that winning isn't as easy as he made it look.

And so --

JEFFY: And he called them the most talented field ever.

PAT: Most talented field ever assembled.

JEFFY: And I kind of believe that.

PAT: I do believe that. I do believe that. There were some great candidates, and not only did he beat them. He annihilated them.

He might have tainted them to the point where they can't even run again in 2020 for president.

JEFFY: Absolutely.

I honestly believe that. There's -- there's not one -- name one person -- you go through the list. Name one person who you think could run in 2020.

PAT: Jeb Bush. We just mentioned this. No, I don't think Jeb Bush can run again. Ben Carson, I think he's done. Chris Christie, he's certainly done. And it wasn't just this race.

JEFFY: No, but definitely -- it was the culmination of him -- yeah.

PAT: Ted Cruz, I think he's thoroughly tainted.

JEFFY: No way.

PAT: As far as presidentially speaking. As far as a presidential candidate. I think he'll be fine as a great senator.

JEFFY: He's a great senator from the state of Texas.

PAT: Great senator. I still support him a lot. I just don't think he has the chance to win the presidency anymore.

JEFFY: Specifically talking about the presidency. These guys should do exactly what they're doing now. But to run for president, my opinion, time and money wasted.

PAT: Can't do it. Yeah. I think so too.

Jim Gilmore. Now, I know you have a special place in your heart for him. He's done.

JEFFY: I forgot about him. Oh.

PAT: Lindsey Graham shouldn't have been in the race in the first place. He never had a chance, but he certainly doesn't now.

Mike Huckabee, completely destroyed. Completely.

JEFFY: Have a nice day.

PAT: Trump completely destroyed him.

JEFFY: Threw him a bone by hiring his daughter. I mean, that's what he does. I hired your daughter. Shut up.

(laughter)

PAT: Yes.

Bobby Jindal. I don't know that I feel the same way about Jindal. He could maybe run again.

JEFFY: Maybe. Maybe.

PAT: Maybe he dropped out at the right time. Didn't get involved in all the back and forth. Maybe Jindal is okay.

JEFFY: I don't know. Maybe.

PAT: But I think Kasich is done. Pataki never had a chance.

JEFFY: Oh, have a nice day.

PAT: I think Rand Paul is done as far as the presidency.

JEFFY: Yes. Yes. Who else? Still --

PAT: Marco Rubio.

He may have been too tainted. Trump did such a good job of destroying these guys.

JEFFY: Sure did.

PAT: That they all seem -- do they not seem kind of tainted? As far as the presidential run is concerned. You know, Rick Santorum I thought was tainted in the 2016 race. Now, I'm not even sure -- I can't even put my finger on what happened to Santorum because I was a big supporter in 2012. But I wouldn't want him to run again. I didn't want him to run last time.

JEFFY: He was with Lindsey at the kid's table from the debates, which was fine. Look, those guys are all smart men.

And they're in positions that they definitely worked hard to get. But after this campaign, this last campaign for president, Donald Trump --

PAT: It's tough.

JEFFY: There's a reason he won. He did scorched earth on those guys, man.

PAT: Yeah, I think he burned down the whole field. Maybe Scott Walker. Maybe Walker. He may have dropped out early enough to not have gotten the wrath of Trump.

He might have --

JEFFY: I don't know. Maybe.

You say Jindal. Walker.

PAT: I don't have the chance. I don't have the same feeling about Jindal and Walker, as I do the rest of the --

JEFFY: But I don't know that they're -- I don't know that they have enough panache to be president.

PAT: Maybe not. I don't know. We'll see. We'll see.

You know on the Democrat side, who has got a bright, bright future is Lincoln Chafee. Because he proposed the metric system. And America took to that like a duck to water. Man, did we respond.

JEFFY: I don't think it was reported enough.

PAT: It wasn't. It was downplayed by the media who doesn't want us to adopt that crappy system.

JEFFY: That's what I mean. I don't think it was reported enough. If we could get it out there, if we could get the word out there and explain it better.

PAT: He would have won by a landslide. But in reality, I think most of the G.O.P. field is done and tainted for 2020.

JEFFY: Yeah, oh, my gosh.

PAT: And if President Trump weren't to run again, the only person I could really think has a really good shot and has been untainted from any of this is Ben Sasse. I think Ben Sasse would be a great alternative.

JEFFY: I don't know if there's anyone else. I don't know that there's anyone else. Maybe I give you Walker and --

PAT: Maybe Walker and Jindal. But definitely Ben Sasse. Because he didn't run. Thank goodness for him. He didn't run. So he may have a future.

JEFFY: Yeah.

PAT: And I don't know. Maybe we're completely wrong. That's just my impression. That's my feeling right now, is that, yes, Donald Trump burned down the rest of the field.

JEFFY: America looks at the rest of the -- barring a couple people that we mentioned. I think at least through my eyes, looking at that campaign field up on stage, I'm looking at all those guys on stage right now, thinking, not one of them I would vote for.

PAT: Yeah. President Trump, then candidate Trump did such an effective job with these guys, that I can't look at Marco Rubio anymore without thinking Little Marco. Isn't that amazing?

JEFFY: I know. I know.

PAT: Such a simple, but degrading term.

JEFFY: And listen, it's difficult --

PAT: And it stuck.

JEFFY: It's difficult for me, for me alone to see Ted Cruz who is a senator, who I voted for here in this great state of Texas, I will vote for again --

PAT: Yes. He's got an election coming up. I'll definitely be voting for.

JEFFY: Here, lying Ted.

PAT: Yeah. Yeah.

JEFFY: I know it's not true. But it's there.

PAT: But it was effective stuff. Yeah.

JEFFY: You're never going to get rid of it.

PAT: It's a strange and interesting phenomenon with Donald Trump.

JEFFY: It sure is. It sure is.

PAT: There is something about him --

JEFFY: I mean, that's -- nobody else is going to be that. Nobody else. Other people have tried it. They lose. And they get looked at like they're complete dirtbags.

PAT: Yeah.

JEFFY: Because they're not Trump.

PAT: Yeah.

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Can you remember the economic crisis of 2008 and how you felt when the news broke that Lehman Brothers had collapsed? I have found an economic threat that everyone needs to be aware of, so you can prepare yourself in case we see another 2008 type collapse. I am going to present the evidence to you and I urge you to verify everything and to form your own opinion.

What is that threat?

It is a bank called Deutsche Bank. They are by far the most dominant bank in Germany which is the world's fourth-largest economy. In 2018 they had €2.08 Trillion worth of assets and the second-placed bank (DZ Bank) had €506 Billion worth of assets. To show you how dominant this bank is, they have more assets than the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th sized banks combined.
When we review a business there are three key parts to analysis:

  • Market sentiment
  • Business numbers
  • Technical Analysis

Market Sentiment

Deutsche Bank has a long history of potential scandals including going all the way back to World War 2 and dealing in Nazi gold. Below are five recent stories which have increased the negative sentiment around Deutsche Bank.

  1. In 2007, they purchased a portfolio of loans worth $7.8 billion and purchased insurance from Warren Buffets Company. It was discovered they did not set aside enough capital to cover any potential losses. Over the course of the ten years, they lost $1.6 billion, and when they sold the loan they did not update their financial statements to include the big loss
  2. The Panama Papers are an ongoing investigation looking for many things including offshore tax havens. These investigations have resulted in several heads of state resigning including in Iceland and Pakistan. Last November, 170 police raided 6 different offices in Frankfurt looking for evidence of money laundering.
  3. Estonia is a small country in Eastern Europe. It has a population of 1.3 million people and a GDP of €26 billion. In January, it was discovered Deutsche Bank got involved with a Danish bank called Danke Bank and processed over $230 billion worth of cross country payments (including from Soviet Russia) through one bank in Estonia.
  4. There have been rumors of issues with Deutsche for a while now and one of the solutions put forth was a merger with a bank called CommerzBank. The leaders of both companies met and they even got support from politicians. In April, news broke that the merger talks had failed because over worries the risks and costs would be too great.
  5. Last week in France, Investment banking boss Garth Ritchie and others were arrested in France over illicit tax transactions.

Business Numbers

Deutsche Bank is already struggling as they are losing staff, losing market share, and bonuses are expected to be down at least 10% and further rounds of cost-cutting to come. Now imagine the impact if business costs start going up.

The banking industry works in a very simple way. They raise funds through large bonds at low-interest rates and then sell those funds to business and individuals thru products like loans and credit cards at a higher interest rate which results in a potential profit.

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank tried raising money through several bonds. They paid 180bp (basis points) on a two-year bond and 230bp on a seven-year bond. Let me put this in context for you. There is a small bank in Spain called Caixabank which paid 225bp on a five-year bond and one of the larger banks in Spain, BBVA paid 130bp on a five-year bond.

  • How and why is a small bank in Spain getting a better deal on bonds than a huge bank in Germany?
  • Why is a large bank in Spain getting a bond 100bp cheaper than a German bank?
  • What does the market know that we do not?

Stock Price

Deutsche is also missing revenue projections which further hurt the business ability to survive and prosper. As you can imagine all of this news has a deep and lasting impact on its stock price which is in deep trouble. Before I share the stock price, I need to put this into the context of the market and the industry compared to the big economic crash of 2008. Below you will see a chart of some banking stocks from around the world with their peak price prior to the 2008 crash, the low of the 2008 recession and the price today:

As you can see from the above chart the banks in America have recovered from the 2008 recession by anywhere up 375% and JP Morgan has not only recovered its price in full but is constantly setting new high's. Ireland went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the EU/IMF following the 2008 crash and even our national bank has more than doubled its price since 2008. The worst performing bank I could find was Societe Generale which has issues but is still hovering around its 2008 low price levels.

Now let's put that into the context of Deutsche Bank. Not only has the stock not rebounded but it is over 65% below its 2008 low at $6.75.

Technical Analysis

When you are dealing with the stock market, you also have people who study pricing through technical analysis. Experts look at things like FIB sequences, trend lines, and support levels. Support levels are a key metric for a stock failing because are looking to find where it will find support and potentially bounce higher.

We are very close to a key support level ($6.40) and if the price goes below this level, there is no saying exactly how low the price could go. At least one company expects Deutsche to fall below this support level, as several weeks ago UBS downgraded the stock to a sell order. This news was compounded last Friday when rating agency Fitch, downgraded their credit rating to BBB or two levels above JUNK status.

Other Information

I know you are likely reading this and thinking "this bank must have smart people in charge and surely they have a plan, right?" I am sure there is a plan and while they have kept their cards close to their chest, they have spoken in the past about the areas they foresee having growth for the company – they include business in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt. Do they strike you as countries which are stable and will offer steady and reliable growth? Do you have to think really hard to imagine how this could go potentially very wrong?

Questions

I believe there is at least a solid case Deutsche is in a LOT of trouble. So what are possible scenarios for the future? I will lay out the key questions below but I must stress that it's impossible to say for sure what exactly will happen. One of the key numbers to remember here is they have roughly €50 billion worth of derivatives.

  • How likely is it that the bank can turn things around and survive?
  • How likely is it the bank continues to run into trouble, its stock price fails and eventually fails?
  • If you think it is likely it will fail, the question becomes what will the fallout be? Who will be affected?
  • Will they be bailed out?
  • If so, by whom? The German government, ECB, IMF, the Federal Reserve?
  • What will the German government think? Some members recently spoke out saying they would block public money for the proposed merger? Will they block funds if it failed?
  • Will other banks be exposed and affected? Will they have to take losses?
  • Will those losses be spread around or will one or more bank be mainly affect?
  • Will this affect the sentiment of the banking sector and cause a panic?
  • If there are issues and it starts affecting the stock prices, what will be the impact on other industries?

Last Question

The last question revolves solely around the banks and the regulators? How secure are the other banks? We all hear about how banks are now put through "stress tests" but how much trust do you put in those results? How much trust do you have in the regulators?

I know this may make me sound like a conspiracy theorist to some but it's an honest question. The Fed is on public record saying they want to keep this economy strong as long as possible. If a bank did not perform strongly in a stress test or even barely failed one, do you think they would report it?

Can you imagine the pressure that body would come under to stay silent? Can you imagine the rhetoric they would face with questions like, "Are you really going to fail one bank? Do you know how many people will lose their jobs if you do that?" Am I saying this is happening? No, but can you really rule it out 100% as a possibility?

I urge you to ponder on these questions, do your own research and find YOUR answers.

Update: The most freaquently asked question I have received from this column / show is how much time do we have to prepare. This is an impossible question to answer, as it could fail tomorrow, next week or might be next year. However I want to provide you a potential date for your diary – July 24th. That is when Deutsche will release their next earnings report and if it comes in below expectations, it could cause a further drop in price casting more doubt over the future viability of the bank.

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Survey: Where do you stand on these conspiracy theories?

Thought Catalog / Unsplash

Have you seen this survey on the most-believed conspiracy theories in America?

It's no surprise the survey has been getting so much attention. The results are actually a pretty disturbing.

Infographic: Belief in Conspiracy Theories in the United States | Statista

I decided to put together a quick survey of my own, with slightly different wording.

Up-vote the ones you agree with and down-vote the ones you disagree with.

I believe Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK alone. However, I would not be surprised to find out the government sealed evidence that others were involved.

If by "deep state" you mean long-time Washington power brokers who are used to calling the shots and now feel threatened by Donald Trump not listening to their advice or council — yes, I do believe that many people like that are working against him and his administration.

Whether alien bodies are in Area 51 or not, I do believe the government knows more about UFOs than they have told us.

I do not believe the U.S. government was involved in 9/11, but as we know, NSA advisor Sandy Berger was caught destroying documents from the national archives related to both Bush and Clinton. All U.S. administrations have been to close to the Saudis, and the Saudis were involved in 9/11 at some level.

I believe the climate is always changing — it's natural. I would be willing to accept that man MAY play a role in this. But I do not believe in the solutions currently being discussed, nor do I believe the intention of most political activists are pure.

Any talk of the Illuminati provides the true dangers to man's freedom — like very powerful NGOS and men like George Soros — a perfect cover.

The U.S. government has done some horrible experiments on people and land — I also suspect they will do more things in the future. But I do not believe in the systematic spraying of chemicals using chemtrails.

The moon landing was real, but I see a time coming when people will not be able to trust their eyes due to deep fakes.

What do you think?

Let me know in the comments section below.