The end of stimulus? (And the start of the crash?) What the most important chart in the world is predicting.

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Back in January of 2016 we saw what appeared to be, and in my opinion should have been, the end of the Everything Bubble blown by the word's central banking cartel.

The carnage started in the emerging markets. Highly-leveraged positions and carry trades began to unwind. That's a fancy way of saying that all the big, sophisticated investors -- who were busy borrowing heavily in countries with cheap money (the US, Japan, and Europe) and using that debt to speculate in markets offering higher yields (junk debt, emerging markets, stocks, etc.) -- began to reverse their trades.

It quickly devolved into a “Sell everything!” scramble. We saw the dollar spike and stocks fall -- with emerging markets taking the full brunt of the carnage as their stock markets rapidly fell into bear territory, their currencies fell, and their bonds were destroyed.

Until...

Very early one morning in February of 2016 everything U-turned and rocketed higher. Suddenly and magically, the panic was over. This wasn’t the invisible hand of the market at work; it was the very-visible hand of central bank intervention.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now have a clear picture of what happened. The central banks huddled together, a bold (desperate?) plan was hatched, and key printing presses around the world were sent into overdrive. In the months to follow, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) went on a record-breaking money printing spree:

(Source)

The red arrows in the charts above mark this moment when the “markets” were saved.

Or, more specifically, when the portfolios the ultra-wealthy were "saved", as the assets within were boosted higher (yet again) by the central banks printing money from thin air:

(Source)

Addicted To Money Printing

So what caused the weakness in early 2016 that spooked the system so much? The central banks themselves.

After many years of force-feeding stimulus into the global economy to create a "recovery", the central banks have become increasingly concerned that asset prices have become too dependent on said stimulus. So in late 2015, the banks took their feet off of their monetary gas pedals for a bit to see what might happen.

They were hoping that the markets could be gradually weaned off of their stimulus dependence with few ill effects. They wanted to engineer a "soft landing", where if priced declined, they'd come down gradually and not too much.

That didn't happen.

Instead, the cheap-money-addicted markets instantly started expressing massive withdrawal complications.

To re-acquaint you with how quickly things were devolving back then, these are news headlines pulled from an article I wrote back in the middle of January 2016:

Sound familiar at all? It should. These sound exactly like the headlines in the news today, here in May of 2018.

We are still paying the price from 2008, when the central banks committed a massive error by not allowing the markets and their bad debts to actually clear. Yes, it would have been acutely painful; but we would have been through the worst within a year or two and in the process restored the system to a much healthier and sustainable state.

Instead, the bad actors were protected (and rewarded!) and the root fundamental problems were literally 'papered over', left to continue to fester unobserved ever since. Similarly in early 2016, the central banks once again committed the same sin by rescuing everything with another wall of fresh, thin-air money.

To drive home how much, below is a chart showing the yearly change in world central bank balance sheets. The relative ‘area under the curve’ of each major period of money printing gives us a sense of the scale. To help you eyeball it, I’ve placed similar-sized orange rectangles in each area. Key to note is that central money printing has been increasing -- not decreasing -- the further out we've gotten from the Great Financial Crisis:

(Source)

If we've been in "recovery" for years now, as the central banks have been touting, then why has 2016-2108 seen the most stimulus ever injected into the system?

History has taught us that we should trust or leaders' actions far more than their words. And their actions at this time indicate panic.

What is it that has them so worried? We should all ponder that question long and hard. I’m convinced that they know as well as we do that, once the over-inflated ““markets”” created by the central banks can no longer be sustained at their current nose-bleed heights, the damage will be extraordinary and unstoppable.

The End Of Stimulus? (And The Start Of The Crash?)

The pain of the 2008 crash will seem like a mere flesh wound compared to the devastation the next deflationary wave will wreak.

Of course, the central banks have no interest in seeing that happen and will, once more, do all they can to "rescue" the markets.

But will they act in time? More to the point, given all of their very public commitments to raising rates and reducing their balance sheets, will they allow a market correction to happen in the near term? (presumably, so they can ride to the rescue soon after as "saviors")

Politically, the prospect of showering even more wealth on the 0.001% is going to be a tough sell. This is especially true in Europe -- in Italy, Greece and Spain where the populace is suffering mightily already and is in no mood to further enrich the ultra-wealthy.

So it would seem that the central banks, at least publicly, have to stick to their stated plans to reduce their levels of money printing/balance sheet expansion.

As of right now, they are on track to end worldwide simulus in early 2019, when their collective net change in assets will dip below $0 for the first time in many years:

(Source)

Given the importance of central bank purchases and market interventions, the above chart is probably the most important one in existence for divining where financial asset prices are headed.

If global monthly stimulus indeed drops to $0, then Watch out below!

Who know if the future will plays out anything like the projections given above? The central banks have proven weak-kneed at every tiny moment of market wobbliness. To date, they've chosen to print and pent and then print some more at every opportunity where the "“markets”" might have corrected.

But we all know that this charade cannot continue forever. Sooner or later it has to stop. Given the blow-ups we're now seeing in the emerging markets, there’s clearly serious trouble brewing somewhere in the system.

In Part 2: The Breaking Point Is Upon Us we provide plenty of data to support that claim.

The currencies and bonds of five countries are now in the danger zone, and many more teeter on the edge. My analysis is that the central banks will resort to their usual money printing to resolve the issue, but for reasons I explain in Part 2, these efforts will fail at some point in the next year -- and spectacularly so.

When today's Everything Bubble bursts, the effect will be nothing short of catastrophic as 50 years of excessive debt accumulation suddenly deflates.

Given the dangers involved, you should expect the central banks to 'go nuclear' in thier deflation-fighting efforts by sending “money to main street” -- likely in the form of a universal basic income, or a check from the Treasury refunding your last 3 years of tax payments, or maybe even an electronic deposit directly from the Federal Reserve into your bank account.

That's when the inevitable fiat currency crisis will begin in earnest. At that time you’ll need to run, not walk, to buy anything with intrinsic value that can't be inflated away -- before your currency becomes worthless.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

10 times Biden has acted like a DICTATOR

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The left-wing media's most recent tirade is accusing Trump of being a dictator. But, as Glenn said, "Everything they're accusing us of, they're doing."

Since day one, the Biden administration has overstepped the bounds placed on the executive branch set by the Constitution. In Glenn's most recent TV Special, he examined ten times Biden acted like a dictator, NOT a president. Here are 10 of Biden's Dictator Moves, and click HERE to get ALL of the research that went into this week's Glenn TV special:

5 ways to protect your First Amendment rights. Number 4 will surprise you.

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Every day it seems Glenn covers another story revealing how people across the world at all levels of power DESPISE the fact that YOU have rights, and they are actively trying to curtail them. Recently, there has been a string of attacks against the rights outlined in the First Amendment: the freedom of religion, the freedom of speech, the freedom of press, the freedom of assembly, and the freedom to petition.

As a refresher, the First Amendment reads as follows:

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

This is powerful stuff, there is a good reason the Founding Fathers made it the FIRST Amendment. It's also the reason why power-hungry elites are attacking it. These attacks are designed to control the way you think, speak, and believe, vote, what you read, and who holds your representatives responsible. The First Amendment is our strongest weapon against tyrants, and they know it.

So what can you do about it? Hope that some wig in Washinton will eventually do something? We know how well that works. The best thing to do is to stay active, engage in the issues you care about, and exercise your rights.

So where to start? Here are a few things YOU can do to protect your First Amendment rights:

Religion

The best way to flex your Freedom of Religion is to—you guessed it—practice your faith. Become an active member in your place of worship, go to scripture studies, invite your friends to that late afternoon event, and walk the life. This can impact the way you spend money as well. Shop the businesses and brands that share your values, and don't shop at the ones that scorn them. Keeping the community alive and healthy is the best way to ensure that generations to come will be able to experience the freedom you enjoy.

Speech

Much like religion, the best way to protect your freedom of speech is... to speak. Engage your friends and family in polite, civil conversation. Stand up for what you believe in, and make your case to your peers. Just remember to keep it friendly. No one ever won an argument by shouting down their opponent. The civil exchange of ideas is the cornerstone of our republic, and a dialogue where the participants are well-informed, considerate, compassionate, and open-minded can have permanent impacts on all involved.

Press

Freedom of the Press seems a little tricky at first. Unless you work for the media, what are you supposed to do? Quit your job and go work for the local newspaper? The good news is that exercising this right is not nearly that difficult. In fact, you are currently doing it. The best thing you can do is to read from outlets that produce informative content. Want to know what Glenn consumes to stay informed every day? Sign up for Glenn's Morning Brief newsletter to get all the stories Glenn gets sent to his desk every day sent straight to your inbox.

Assembly

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Freedom of assembly is one of the more impactful yet underutilized freedoms in the First Amendment. Peaceably assembling and protesting with like-minded individuals can hugely influence politicians and policies while simultaneously creating community and fellowship between attendees. It's understandable why more people don't turn out. We're all busy people with busy schedules, and flying out to D.C. for the weekend seems like a daunting task to many. Thankfully, you don't have to go out all the way to D.C. to make a difference. Gather some like-minded people in your town and bring awareness to issues that impact your community. Big change starts locally, and exercising your freedom to assemble can be the catalyst to lasting impact.

Petition

If you've been a long-time listener of Glenn, then you will have heard a few of his calls to action where he asks his audience to contact their representatives about a particular piece of policy. There is a good reason Glenn keeps on doing those: they work. Whether it's your local mayor or your senator, a call and an email go a long way. If you really want to make a change, convince your friends and family to reach out as well.

5 SHOCKING crimes the border crisis is bringing to YOUR backyard

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The crisis on the southern border has reached a boiling point following the controversial Supreme Court ruling that allowed the federal government to remove large portions of border security, triggering a movement of conservative governors defending Texas' right to protect its border.

We commonly hear about the border crisis through mainstream media as if it's an abstract issue that has little to no effect on our daily lives. However, for millions of Americans, the border crisis is in their backyard... literally... bringing crime up to their front doorstep—and it's coming to your doorstep soon.

These five stories paint a glimpse of the type of crime and cartel activity that is being enabled by the Biden administration's border policies.

Assault and robbery in Massachusetts

On January 15th, Lucas Vilaca Moreira Fontenelle was arrested in Milford, Massachusetts for armed robbery of a bodega along with two other illegals a few days earlier. This comes just one month after ICE detained Fontenelle for assault, but the city of Milford cut him free as part of their status as a sanctuary city.

Murder in New Your City

On January 6th, Moises Coronado chased down, beat, and fatally stabbed Dafren Canizalez while in a NYC shelter. Coronado illegally crossed the Texas border in November where he was detained before being released and making his way to New York.

Cartel trafficking in El Paso

Late last month U.S. Border Patrol agents operating in the El Paso region arrested a cartel "foot guide" that was responsible for trafficking dozens of illegal immigrants across the border. The foot guide is a member of the La Linea Cartel, an operation based out of Juarez, Mexico whose gang warfare contributed to the city's 1,000+ homicides in 2023 alone.

Human smuggling in Arizona

Last November, two teenagers were pulled over with five illegal immigrants in their car. The teens are being charged with human trafficking, and there is evidence that this was not their first trip. Authorities believe that these teens are the latest in a dangerous new trend of cartels using social media to pay teens to smuggle migrants across the border.

Cartel trespassing in Arizona

Late last December, an Arizona rancher reported that he has seen a disturbing rise of cartel activity on his land. According to the rancher, he has seen evidence of cartels fighting for control of routes that pass through his property. He has even seen cartel scouts and human smugglers several times.

5 organizations that provide MAPS to help illegal immigrants cross our border

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On last week's Glenn TV special, Glenn dove into exactly how migrants from around the world are ending up on our southern border. The most shocking discovery, which was first published by investigators with Muckraker, was that multiple organizations have been providing maps showing immigrants exactly how to cross Central America and Mexico into the waiting hands of the cartel, who smuggle them across our border.

Just who is encouraging these people to make this perilous journey? You will likely recognize a few. Below are FIVE organizations that facilitate the crisis on our southern border.

Click HERE to get access to all of Glenn's research about what's happening at the southern border from this week's Glenn TV special.

Doctors Without Borders

These maps from the Swiss humanitarian giant, Doctors Without Borders, give detailed routes from Central America to our border. The map also highlights places to find aid, food and shelter along the way.

Red Cross

This map distributed by the Red Cross highlights freight train routes. The back of the map advises migrants how to illegally board and ride freight trains across Mexico.

UN’s International Organization of Migration  

This map of consulates and commissions across Mexico was created and distributed by the International Organization of Migration, a part of the UN, to aid migrants on their journey towards the U.S. border.

Amigos Del Tren ("Friends of the Train")

This map advises immigrants on how to board and ride the "Train of Death," a freight train that runs through Mexico into the U.S. The map also gives travel time estimates and lists places to stay along the route. As the name "Train of Death" suggests, the route is as dangerous as it is illegal.

R4V (Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela)

This map specifically shows migrants from Ecuador how to leave the country and connect to Central America where they then proceed to the U.S. border. The map shows just how far south the migrant train really starts.