The end of stimulus? (And the start of the crash?) What the most important chart in the world is predicting.

Chris Liverani/Unsplash

Back in January of 2016 we saw what appeared to be, and in my opinion should have been, the end of the Everything Bubble blown by the word's central banking cartel.

The carnage started in the emerging markets. Highly-leveraged positions and carry trades began to unwind. That's a fancy way of saying that all the big, sophisticated investors -- who were busy borrowing heavily in countries with cheap money (the US, Japan, and Europe) and using that debt to speculate in markets offering higher yields (junk debt, emerging markets, stocks, etc.) -- began to reverse their trades.

It quickly devolved into a “Sell everything!” scramble. We saw the dollar spike and stocks fall -- with emerging markets taking the full brunt of the carnage as their stock markets rapidly fell into bear territory, their currencies fell, and their bonds were destroyed.

Until...

Very early one morning in February of 2016 everything U-turned and rocketed higher. Suddenly and magically, the panic was over. This wasn’t the invisible hand of the market at work; it was the very-visible hand of central bank intervention.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now have a clear picture of what happened. The central banks huddled together, a bold (desperate?) plan was hatched, and key printing presses around the world were sent into overdrive. In the months to follow, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) went on a record-breaking money printing spree:

(Source)

The red arrows in the charts above mark this moment when the “markets” were saved.

Or, more specifically, when the portfolios the ultra-wealthy were "saved", as the assets within were boosted higher (yet again) by the central banks printing money from thin air:

(Source)

Addicted To Money Printing

So what caused the weakness in early 2016 that spooked the system so much? The central banks themselves.

After many years of force-feeding stimulus into the global economy to create a "recovery", the central banks have become increasingly concerned that asset prices have become too dependent on said stimulus. So in late 2015, the banks took their feet off of their monetary gas pedals for a bit to see what might happen.

They were hoping that the markets could be gradually weaned off of their stimulus dependence with few ill effects. They wanted to engineer a "soft landing", where if priced declined, they'd come down gradually and not too much.

That didn't happen.

Instead, the cheap-money-addicted markets instantly started expressing massive withdrawal complications.

To re-acquaint you with how quickly things were devolving back then, these are news headlines pulled from an article I wrote back in the middle of January 2016:

Sound familiar at all? It should. These sound exactly like the headlines in the news today, here in May of 2018.

We are still paying the price from 2008, when the central banks committed a massive error by not allowing the markets and their bad debts to actually clear. Yes, it would have been acutely painful; but we would have been through the worst within a year or two and in the process restored the system to a much healthier and sustainable state.

Instead, the bad actors were protected (and rewarded!) and the root fundamental problems were literally 'papered over', left to continue to fester unobserved ever since. Similarly in early 2016, the central banks once again committed the same sin by rescuing everything with another wall of fresh, thin-air money.

To drive home how much, below is a chart showing the yearly change in world central bank balance sheets. The relative ‘area under the curve’ of each major period of money printing gives us a sense of the scale. To help you eyeball it, I’ve placed similar-sized orange rectangles in each area. Key to note is that central money printing has been increasing -- not decreasing -- the further out we've gotten from the Great Financial Crisis:

(Source)

If we've been in "recovery" for years now, as the central banks have been touting, then why has 2016-2108 seen the most stimulus ever injected into the system?

History has taught us that we should trust or leaders' actions far more than their words. And their actions at this time indicate panic.

What is it that has them so worried? We should all ponder that question long and hard. I’m convinced that they know as well as we do that, once the over-inflated ““markets”” created by the central banks can no longer be sustained at their current nose-bleed heights, the damage will be extraordinary and unstoppable.

The End Of Stimulus? (And The Start Of The Crash?)

The pain of the 2008 crash will seem like a mere flesh wound compared to the devastation the next deflationary wave will wreak.

Of course, the central banks have no interest in seeing that happen and will, once more, do all they can to "rescue" the markets.

But will they act in time? More to the point, given all of their very public commitments to raising rates and reducing their balance sheets, will they allow a market correction to happen in the near term? (presumably, so they can ride to the rescue soon after as "saviors")

Politically, the prospect of showering even more wealth on the 0.001% is going to be a tough sell. This is especially true in Europe -- in Italy, Greece and Spain where the populace is suffering mightily already and is in no mood to further enrich the ultra-wealthy.

So it would seem that the central banks, at least publicly, have to stick to their stated plans to reduce their levels of money printing/balance sheet expansion.

As of right now, they are on track to end worldwide simulus in early 2019, when their collective net change in assets will dip below $0 for the first time in many years:

(Source)

Given the importance of central bank purchases and market interventions, the above chart is probably the most important one in existence for divining where financial asset prices are headed.

If global monthly stimulus indeed drops to $0, then Watch out below!

Who know if the future will plays out anything like the projections given above? The central banks have proven weak-kneed at every tiny moment of market wobbliness. To date, they've chosen to print and pent and then print some more at every opportunity where the "“markets”" might have corrected.

But we all know that this charade cannot continue forever. Sooner or later it has to stop. Given the blow-ups we're now seeing in the emerging markets, there’s clearly serious trouble brewing somewhere in the system.

In Part 2: The Breaking Point Is Upon Us we provide plenty of data to support that claim.

The currencies and bonds of five countries are now in the danger zone, and many more teeter on the edge. My analysis is that the central banks will resort to their usual money printing to resolve the issue, but for reasons I explain in Part 2, these efforts will fail at some point in the next year -- and spectacularly so.

When today's Everything Bubble bursts, the effect will be nothing short of catastrophic as 50 years of excessive debt accumulation suddenly deflates.

Given the dangers involved, you should expect the central banks to 'go nuclear' in thier deflation-fighting efforts by sending “money to main street” -- likely in the form of a universal basic income, or a check from the Treasury refunding your last 3 years of tax payments, or maybe even an electronic deposit directly from the Federal Reserve into your bank account.

That's when the inevitable fiat currency crisis will begin in earnest. At that time you’ll need to run, not walk, to buy anything with intrinsic value that can't be inflated away -- before your currency becomes worthless.

Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

Glenn Beck tries his best NOT to gloat after CNN dumps Brian Stelter

Image source: Video screenshot

When Glenn Beck heard that CNN had canned his old pal Brian Stelter, he knew that he had two choices of how to respond: One would be fun, entertaining, and very well-deserved — and the other more "Christ-like."

So, of course, Glenn chose to take the high road, but Stu Burguiere wasn't about to let him miss out on this golden opportunity to gloat, just a little, at the soon-to-be-unemployed host of "Reliable Sources." After all, it wasn't that long ago that the "smug-faced" Stelter invited a certain conservative host onto his show to talk about why Americans don't seem to trust the media anymore, only to waylay his guest with a "gotcha" question about the future of his company.

Watch the video clip below to see Glenn use every ounce of self-restraint not to gloat as Stu tempts him with one particularly enticing flashback with Brian Stelter:

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It's going to get UGLY: Glenn Beck issues solemn warning for conservatives ahead of midterms

(Left) Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images/(Right) Video screenshot

America is in a very dangerous place right now. Far-left progressives are doing everything they can to create the right-wing "extremists" they can't seem to organically find, and many on the right have had enough. Somebody is going to do something stupid, which will only give the left the excuse it needs to brand every last conservative in the nation as a "threat to our democracy."

"We need a plan of action to save the country," Glenn Beck said on a recent episode of Glenn TV. But that plan must adhere 100% to the Constitution, he asserted, because if we lash out in anger, we will lose.

"I have never been more frightened for my country than I am right now," Glenn said. "We have 350 million people and some of them are bat-crap-crazy 24 hours a day, no matter who is the president. Somebody's going to do something stupid, and the people that I would like to see behind bars — those who are intentionally trying to distort, dismantle, and destroy our republic and the Constitution — they will use any and every opportunity they have to push people in a certain direction, cast them in a certain light [...]. There isn't any way to win unless we remember who we are and rise above it," he added.

"This is going to be one or the other: You're going to have an authoritarian state that tells everybody exactly what to do, what you can buy; you will be a serf, or we're going to have a new chapter of freedom. Getting to either one of these is going to be ugly," Glenn warned. "We must try absolutely everything we can, and November is the best way to do it."

Glenn went on to explain why, if we don't realize that our neighbors are not the same as the "crazies" in Washington, D.C., we won't have a country anymore.

"I'm sorry if I am out of step with you," he said. "When I started this job the week of September 11th, I promised [God] I would do my best to find the answers to share them with you and stand up for what I truly believed He would have me do."

"All we can do is the best we can right now, and the best thing that you can do is, as the crowd gets louder, do not scream for more blood. As the crowd gets louder, we must become more quiet and humble — but in the way of Jesus. Stop thinking of Jesus Christ only as a lamb. He was also a lion. But he was a lion that roared against injustice. Just because you want to be reasoned, quiet, Christ-like, does not mean that you do not turn over tables. The tables here have to be turned over. The money-changers have got to be chased out of our republic's temple in Washington, D.C., and I am all for that. But notany other way than constitutionally."

"Don't give the crazies what they want," Glenn urged. We are so close to November, then we must vote them out.

Watch the video clip below or find the full episode here.


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Sam Harris says there was 'absolutely' a 'Left-wing conspiracy' against Trump — but here's why it was 'warranted'

Image source: (Left) Video screenshot/ (Right) Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

Sam Harris, a neuroscientist, philosopher, New York Times bestselling author, and host of the reputedly non-partisan and intellectually honest "Making Sense" podcast, just destroyed his own credibility, if not his entire career, in less than two minutes by finally admitting what he really thinks about free speech and censorship.

On the YouTube show and podcast "TRIGGERnometry," with hosts Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster, Harris addressed censorship of the New York Post's now-infamous Hunter Biden laptop story ahead of the November 2020 election.

“Hunter Biden literally could have had the corpses of children in his basement, I would not have cared,” Harris stated. "Whatever the scope of Joe Biden's corruption is ... — getting kickbacks from Hunter Biden's deals in Ukraine ... or China — it is infinitesimal compared to the corruption we know Donald Trump is involved in."

Harris goes on to admit that suppressing the information found on Hunter Biden's laptop until after the was "absolutely" a "Left-wing conspiracy to deny the presidency to Donald Trump," but argued that "it was warranted."

"I'm sorry ... but you've just said something I really struggle with there," Kisin interjected. "You're saying you are content with a Left-wing conspiracy to prevent somebody being democratically reelected as president?"

"It was a conspiracy out in the open, but it doesn't matter what part's conspiracy, what part's out in the open," Harris responded. He went on to justify the election-influencing "Left-wing conspiracy" by suggesting that President Donald Trump was the equivalent of "an asteroid hurtling toward Earth."


On a recent episode of Glenn TV, Glenn Beck discussed the most recent findings in the Hunter Biden laptop scandal. Don't get distracted by the seemingly endless stream of scandalous photos and videos, Glenn warns, it's what's coming out about Hunter's overseas business dealings that should be all over the media, because Joe Biden is involved too.

Watch the video clip below or find the full episode here.


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The Left and their lapdog media are STILL busy looking for anyone and anything to blame for January 6. Their goal is to make "extremists" out of half of America, and Christians are next in line.

Faith is now on trial in the media, which dramatically reports lies like “a rise in a white Christian nationalist movement,” “The GOP: A party of Christian nationalists,” “It’s a radically anti-democratic ideology,” “Stamp the entire Republican Party as fans of this white Christian nationalism,” and “When they envision ‘one nation under God,’ it is a White Christian Nation.”

WRONG.

On "Glenn TV" Wednesday, Glenn Beck brings the definitive proof that America’s heritage is NOT “white Christian nationalism.” It’s important to understand – and be able to explain why – acknowledging the historical reality of America’s Christian heritage is NOT the same thing as “white Christian nationalism.”

The attacks to smear any recognition of Christian influence in America’s founding as a dangerous threat to democracy do not hold up to honest scrutiny. Do not accept this dangerous smear campaign, and share this fact-filled rebuttal with your friends.

Watch the full episode below:

Want more from Glenn Beck?

To enjoy more of Glenn’s masterful storytelling, thought-provoking analysis and uncanny ability to make sense of the chaos, subscribe to BlazeTV — the largest multi-platform network of voices who love America, defend the Constitution and live the American dream.