THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT: Cascading impacts of an epidemic

On an average day in America, over 38 Million people will buy a cup of coffee at a Starbucks franchise. That's about 10% of the US population. Starbucks stores are mostly owned by private Franchisees, small business owners operating a store they own but under license from Starbucks corporate. The average Starbucks Franchise operates on a 5-7% margin, meaning the operating costs of supplies, electricity, employee salaries, taxes, etc leave the business owner with a net profit of around 5-7% every month after all costs are deducted from all sales. Said another way, out of the typical month, the average Starbucks franchise only makes a profit based on about 2 days worth of operations each month...28 other days every month, all sales go to cover costs of operating a franchise.

Now, imagine you receive an email from your HR Manager or maybe the CEO at work. Due to the risk of Coronavirus, all employees are being asked to work from home for the next two weeks at least, effective immediately. You have your laptop, the internet stays up, and you already made your Costco run for canned goods, beans, rice and plenty of toilet paper. You're set. The Kids are going to stay home from school, you update your Netflix and Disney Plus subscriptions, and prepare yourself mentally for a 2 week "Bug In" semi-quarantine at home. Local governments ask residents to stay put and stay off the streets as much as possible to avoid inadvertently spreading COVID-19. As a responsible American, you plan on doing precisely as asked.

Back at the Starbucks, foot traffic grinds to a halt. In local businesses that are heavily dependent on daily cash sales, a rapid and sudden decline in sales has dramatic consequences. Operating costs of a store don't decline with the drop in foot traffic. It costs the same amount to run your daily business when the store is busy as it does when the store is empty. Employee salaries, electricity to keep the lights on, rent and insurance, license fees to Starbucks corporate, costs to brew coffee and bake muffins all remain the same, whether you have 1000 customers or 10 customers. And with only 2 days per month actually driving the profit of any given store, a two-week period with virtually no foot traffic is devastating.

And with only 2 days per month actually driving the profit of any given store, a two-week period with virtually no foot traffic is devastating.

The store owner does what they have to do. They start cutting back hours and shifts for employees, perhaps even laying workers off and moving to 'skeleton crews'. The loss of work for hourly employees means those workers may not be able to pay rent, or may not be able to make student loan payments or car payments, can't make credit card payments. Without ongoing sales coming in, the store owner has to dip into savings to cover expenses, selling stocks or bonds to raise cash to try to stay afloat.
Think of all the other things that you don't spend money on during your bug-in at home. No trips to the movie theater, who also have the same operating costs whether or not the theater is full. They still have to pay salaries, still have to pay licensing for showing films, whether there are 5 people in the auditorium or 500. While quarantined at home, you aren't stopping for gasoline, aren't buying that Mountain Dew fountain drink that is your guilty pleasure on Saturday morning while driving your kids to Soccer.
More than 6 million small businesses in America are heavily reliant on the daily foot traffic of customers walking into their store and making cash purchases. While online orders via Amazon might have an uptick if tens of millions of Americans are forced to "Bug In" and some restaurants might see orders via food-delivery apps stay steady, there are millions of businesses, from laundromats to theaters to bars to Starbucks stores that rely on classic consumerism to stay afloat.

This is the potential catastrophic butterfly effect of an epidemic like COVID-19. A massive change in consumer behavior can have an outsized effect on certain parts of the economy that rely on regular, steady income via cash sales at retail locations. 6 Million businesses in America, representing over 78 Million employees fall into this category, according to the US Chamber of Commerce. If America is forced to 'shut down' and self-isolate at home, while some spending may shift ONLINE, the direct economic impact to small-business America could be extremely damaging and have lasting effects. Most small businesses in America have less than 45 days operating capital at any given time. A multi-week disruption to in-store sales can have severe, cascading effects, leading to layoffs, losses in wages. Stores close. Higher unemployment.

For many businesses in America, the economic-contagion may be far worse than the virus itself.

We're barely starting to feel the effects of COVID-19. For many businesses in America, the economic-contagion may be far worse than the virus itself. Amazon and Netflix will probably be fine. There may be some pain on Wall-Street today but the pain on Main Street could end up being far worse. If what we're seeing in Korea, China, Japan, Italy and even in Seattle are any indicators, this type of localized shut down of foot traffic due to COVID-19 is exactly what America is going to have to endure.

Glenn gives the latest coronavirus numbers, updating YOU on everything needed to know as Americans and officials monitor China's new COVID-19 virus:

Daily Stats as of 5:30 AM CT (from John's Hopkins)

  • Total Confirmed Cases Worldwide: 486,702 (up from 434,595 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Deaths Worldwide: 22,022 (up from 19,603 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Recovered Worldwide: 117,448 (up from 111,853 Yesterday)
  • 4% of Active Cases are considered serious (requiring hospitalization) Steady from 4% Yesterday, and down from 19% in February
  • Note that 12% of US Confirmed Cases do currently require Hospitalization, but that number is expected to drop toward the international average as more people are diagnosed through testing.
  • US has 65,581 Confirmed cases and 1,036 Deaths, up from 54,941 cases and 784 Deaths yesterday
  • US has 428 total officially recovered, against 1,036 official deaths. Again, US numbers are expected to normalize toward international averages as more mild cases are diagnosed.

Brother, Can You Spare $2 Trillion? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-updates-whats-in-the-2-trillion-relief-plan.html
  • US Senate Passes the largest economic stimulus bill in world history.
  • The Senate passes a roughly $2 trillion economic relief plan in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
  • It includes direct payments to Americans, strengthened unemployment insurance, loans to businesses small and large and increased health care resources for hospitals, states and municipalities.
  • Loans to small businesses are technically 'grants' covering payroll and rent payments. Grants do not have to be repaid.
  • It is unclear when the House will pass the legislation, though it aims to do so Friday.
Every American Will Get $1,200 in 2-3 Weeks, $2,400 plus up to 4 months Unemployment Benefits https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8152139/Every-American-four-months-unemployment-checks-earning-95-000.htm
  • Workers will get four months of unemployment pay plus additional $600 each.
  • Direct checks to Americans include 1,200 per adult making up to $75,000 a year before phasing out and ending altogether for those earning more than $99,000
  • That would result in $2,400 to a married couple making up to $150,000, with an additional $500 per child for each household.
  • 'Our expectation is within three weeks we will have direct payments out,' Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said.
Cuomo Confirms What Introverts Have Long Known: Social Distancing Works https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3077011/coronavirus-new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-says-early-signs-show-social
  • Stringent density control measures may be working to contain the coronavirus in New York state, the epicenter of COVID-19 outbreak in the US, as the rate of hospitalization shows early signs of abating, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Wednesday.
  • New York, which has 19 million residents and nearly 31,000 infections, now accounts for 56 per cent of the confirmed cases in the country and more than 7 percent of the world's total.
  • Cuomo had ordered all but essential businesses to shutter by Sunday evening and residents to limit their outdoor activities and practice social distancing, effectively putting the state on pause.
  • On Tuesday, the number of hospitalized patients had doubled every 4.7 days, slowing from the rate of every 3.4 days on Monday and every two days on Sunday, Cuomo said at his daily coronavirus briefing.
  • "This is a very positive sign," he said. "The arrows are heading into the right direction."
Were the Beads Worth It? Mardi Gras Gets Blame for Big Easy Outbreak https://news.trust.org/item/20200325200808-oc1ie
  • "Mardi Gras was the perfect storm, it provided the perfect conditions for the spread of this virus," said Dr. Rebekah Gee, who heads up Louisiana State University's health care services division.
  • She noted that Fat Tuesday fell on Feb. 25, when the virus was already in the United States but before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and national leaders had raised the alarm with the American public.
  • "New Orleans had its normal level of celebration, which involved people congregating in large crowds and some 1.4 million tourists," Gee said. "We shared drink cups. We shared each other's space in the crowds. People were in close contact with catching beads. It is now clear that people also caught coronavirus."
  • New Orleans is on track to become the next coronavirus epicenter in the United States, dimming hopes that less densely populated and warmer-climate cities would escape the worst of the pandemic, and that summer month could see it wane.
  • Authorities have warned the number of cases in New Orleans could overwhelm its hospitals by April 4.
  • New Orleans is the biggest city in Louisiana, the state with the third-highest caseload of coronavirus in the United States on a per capita basis.
  • The growth rate in Louisiana tops all others, according to a University of Louisiana at Lafayette analysis of global data, with the number of cases rising by 30% in the 24 hours before noon on Wednesday.
  • On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a major federal disaster declaration for the state, freeing federal funds and resources.
US Military Officially On No-Travel Lockdown https://news.trust.org/item/20200325203242-zgoc4
  • Defense Secretary Mark Esper has issued a "stop all movement" order to the U.S. military halting travel and movement abroad for up to 60 days in an effort to limit the spread of the coronavirus through the ranks.
  • The measure is by far the Defense Department's most sweeping to date and will affect forces around the world.
  • Esper said in an interview that the order applied to all U.S. troops, civilian personnel and families, but noted that there would be some exceptions.
  • "The purpose is to make sure that we're not bringing the virus back home, infecting others, that we're not spreading it around the military," Esper said.
  • The order does include personnel who were to have been scheduled to be formally discharged from the Military in April or May.
  • Esper said one exception to the order would be the drawdown underway in Afghanistan, which will continue.
For The Best Darn Facemask In The Whole Wide World... https://www.foxnews.com/us/mypillow-other-us-companies-making-face-masks-to-meet-coronavirus-shortages
  • In Minnesota, the MyPillow company is refocusing 75 percent of its production to face masks for health care workers.
  • "We have the capacity to make a lot of things at big rates and we're going to be going hopefully from 10,000 units a day to 50,000 units a day in a very short period of time," CEO Mike Lindell told FOX 9 of Minneapolis-St. Paul.
  • The masks will go to hospitals in Minnesota as well as other states, he said. "Whatever it takes."
  • MyPillow worked with the Trump administration to get the proper design, Lindell told local Fox News 9.
  • Lindell joins literally hundreds of other companies in the US who have heeded the call of the Trump Administration to covert production to respirators, masks, ventilators, gowns and other needed medical equipment.
Further Evidence that COVID-19 Is Seasonal and May Spread Less in Summer Months https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-could-become-seasonal-top-us-scientist-001146451.html
  • There is a strong chance the new coronavirus could return in seasonal cycles, a senior US scientist said Wednesday, underscoring the urgent need to find a vaccine and effective treatments.
  • Anthony Fauci, who leads research into infectious diseases at the National Institutes of Health, told a briefing the virus was beginning to take root in the southern hemisphere, where winter is on its way.
  • "What we're starting to see now... in southern Africa and in the southern hemisphere countries, is that we're having cases that are appearing as they go into their winter season," he said.
  • "And if, in fact, they have a substantial outbreak, it will be inevitable that we need to be prepared that we'll get a cycle around the second time," Fauci said, referring to a 2nd cycle in the US late next fall in November or December.
  • "It totally emphasizes the need to do what we're doing in developing a vaccine, testing it quickly and trying to get it ready so that we'll have a vaccine available for that next cycle."
  • Fauci's comments suggesting the virus does better in colder weather than it does in hot and humid conditions follows a recent Chinese research paper -- still preliminary and awaiting peer-review -- that reached the same conclusion.

Glenn gives the latest coronavirus numbers, updating YOU on everything needed to know as Americans and officials monitor China's new COVID-19 virus:

Daily Stats as of 5:30 AM CT (from John's Hopkins)

  • Total Confirmed Cases Worldwide: 434,595 (up from 392,156 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Deaths Worldwide: 19,603 (up from 17,138 Yesterday)
  • Total Confirmed Recovered Worldwide: 111,853 (up from 102,850 Yesterday)
  • All 195 Countries On Earth have confirmed cases Antarctica (not a country) Still No Confirmed Cases. Penguins officially confirmed to NOT be carriers for COVID-19.
  • 4% of Active Cases are considered serious (requiring hospitalization) down from 5% Yesterday, and down from 19% in February
  • Note that 13% of US Confirmed Cases do currently require Hospitalization, but that number is expected to drop toward the international average as more people are diagnosed through testing.
  • US has 54,941 Confirmed cases and 784 Deaths, up from 46,168 cases and 582 Deaths yesterday
  • US has 379 total officially recovered, against 784 official deaths. Again, US numbers are expected to normalize toward international averages as more mild cases are diagnosed.

LA County Sherrif Orders Gun Stores Closed https://www.foxla.com/news/la-county-sheriff-orders-gun-stores-to-close-adds-1300-deputies-to-patrol
  • Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva declared gun stores as nonessential businesses that will be forced to close.
  • The Sherrif also confirmed that he's released 1,700 nonviolent inmates from county jails.
  • Villanueva also said he's adding 1,300 deputies to patrol.
America Loses 500,000 Millionaires to COVID-19 - Bernie Sanders Elated https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/america-e2-80-99s-millionaire-ranks-shrink-by-500000-in-record-time/ar-BB11DrqN
  • At the close of 2019, there were an unprecedented 11 million American millionaires, a reflection of the longest bull market in history thanks to ultra-low interest rates and tax cuts.
  • Fast forward just a few months and it's a starkly different picture. The number of households in the U.S. above that threshold has dropped by at least 500,000 as of Friday, according to research firm Spectrem Group.
  • The tandem financial and health crises wrought by COVID-19 have disproportionately eroded the fortunes of the wealthy, who are more likely to own equities than the overall population.
  • At the end of 2019, the top 1% of households owned 53.5% of equities and mutual fund shares, according to Federal Reserve statistics.
  • The losses affected the rich at every level, from the mass affluent to those worth more than $25 million, according to the report. The wealth destruction at the very top has been especially steep, with the top 1% of households losing over $7.9 Trillion in wealth so far in 2020.
50% of Americans Living Under Shelter In Place or Home Quarantine Orders https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/more-than-half-of-us-population-will-be-under-orders-to-stay-home-by-midweek
  • The majority of the public will be ordered to stay home in the coming days as the coronavirus pandemic sweeps the nation.
  • A total of 13 states and at least 16 municipalities have enacted measures to keep residents inside their homes to prevent the spread of the virus, according to CNN.
  • That number, which amounts to 148,577,262 people, or 45% of the population, is expected to grow this week as five more states and nine more municipalities institute additional measures.
  • After the new orders go into effect, a total of 176,385,537 people, or 54% of the population, will be asked to stay home.
  • Many states and cities have not named a specific date, although some, such as LA County and the State of New York, have identified April 19th as the target 'end' of the at-home quarantine orders.
Uniformed Military Personnel Set Up Make-shift Morgue Outside NYC Hospital https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift-morgue-for-coronavirus-victims-set-up-outside-nyc-hospital/
  • In a scene reminiscent of Hollywood disaster movies (and more recently China, Italy and Spain), US Military personnel have set up a tent-based morgue outside of Bellvue Hospital in NYC.
  • Two refrigerated trailers were trucked to the site at 30th Street and the FDR Drive, along with a customized RV with a printed sign labeled: "MOBILE COMMAND CENTER — MEDICAL EXAMINER."
  • A team of men wearing camouflage fatigues and face masks set up a series of white tents that form a tunnel to a larger, white tent.
  • Other men wearing jackets that identified them as members of the NYPD and the city's Office of the Chief Medical Examiner were also at the scene.
  • A source familiar with the operation said that additional refrigerated trailers would be brought to the site and that similar set-ups would be built up outside other hospitals.
  • "The plan is for them to be there and throughout the city," the source said, with as many as 6 temporary morgue locations near hospitals in New York City.
UV Rays Proven to Destroy SARS-Cov-2 Virus https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/what-infection-rates-in-iceland-and-australia-may-reveal-about-how-covid-19-could-spread-in-the-us/707057
  • The infection rate for COVID-19 is 22 times higher in Iceland as compared to Australia.
  • The research comes as scientists in Hong Kong demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, is easily destroyed with UV light, just like all other known Coronaviruses.
  • "Direct exposure to UV light breaks down the membrane that houses the RNA of the virus," Dr Lon Kiang, lead researcher of the study said. Without the membrane, the virus cannot attach itself to healthy cells in the human body.
  • "This was expected, but is still certainly good news," he said.
  • Researchers said the findings may indicate that the virus will have a harder time spreading during warmer summer months, when more UV light strikes surfaces, including clothing and human skin, which may contain viral particles.
  • Scientists warned against directly and intentionally exposing skin to UV lights, which can cause burns and carries other risks, such as Cancer.

The mainstream media and the left are eager to report anything negative about President Donald Trump, even if it turns out to be Chinese Communist Party propaganda and disinformation.

On "GlennTV," Glenn uncovered some of the lies China's Communist Party is peddling to its own people and the rest of the world.

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Diagnosed with pneumonia and coronavirus, Rio Giardinieri, 52, was admitted to the ICU at Joe DiMaggio hospital in South Florida. After more than a week without showing any improvement, doctors told him there was nothing more they could do. Desperately ill, Giardinieri started saying his "goodbyes" to family and friends.

That's when a friend told him there was a potential "cure" for coronavirus, an anti-malaria drug called hydroxycloroquine. Though doctors at the hospital said they couldn't prescribe hydroxycloroquine, they put Giardinieri in touch with an infectious disease doctor who authorized the use. The next morning, he says he woke up feeling "absolutely perfect."

Giardinieri joined Glenn Beck on the radio program Tuesday to share his remarkable story and to weigh in on why he thinks information about this promising treatment for COVID-19 isn't being made more readily available.

"I'm not a scientist. I'm not a doctor. I can just tell you how I feel. And I know that I was not doing well. In my mind, I didn't believe I was going to be here by the morning," Giardinieri said. "I don't know what else to attribute [for recovery] but that medicine ... and it's not just me that it's worked for. There're many people this has worked for. So, you know, I certainly understand the hospital's position. They may not be too happy me telling the story. But the facts are the facts."

Watch the video below to catch more of the conversation:

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