What is the PULSECAST? Here's a Q&A to give you the scoop.

The PULSECAST represents a consensus of mainstream polling and election models, expressed as a percentage chance of victory for a candidate or party. It’s not a prediction from Stu, Glenn, or BlazeTV, nor does it guarantee certain victory or forecast impending doom for any candidate.

What is the PULSECAST?

So glad you asked. The PULSECAST is a statistical measure of more than a dozen different data sets designed to give you a simple and cohesive picture of the consensus State of the Race. We use everything from polling averages, prediction markets, and fully built out election models to try and synthesize all of the data. Some of these metrics are well known public facing products, and some are built by various data nerds and publications less known to the public.

You host a podcast called State of the Race. Did you use that phrase to promote the pod?

Obviously. That’s why I linked to it. It is available under the Stu Does America audio feed, wherever you get your podcasts.

Why did you create the PULSECAST?

We created the PULSECAST to address the wide disparities in how data journalists, pollsters, and experts interpret the same data. These differences can lead to confusion, so our goal is to provide a more unified and comprehensible summary of the overall consensus.

Take Nate Silver, for example—he hosts his own election model on Substack, while his former site now features a completely different model designed by another data guru.

They may both be good faith efforts, but they tell vastly different stories, sometimes differing by up to twenty percentage points. And these are only two of many different models, averages, and markets trying to interpret the same data.

Why are these metrics so different?

Each and every one of these indicators are based on individual decisions by individual people. People who often disagree.

Pollsters must decide on how to weight their polls, and how to select their samples. The creators of polling averages must decide on which polls to include, and whether to weight them based on quality and other variables. Campaign modelers must decide which polls to use, which fundamentals to include, what historical precedent to consider among dozens of other factors.

What does the PULSECAST attempt to do?

The PULSECAST attempts not only to boil all of this information down into one understandable number, but also to smooth out all of these decisions made by all of these different experts.

The very human instinct for most people is to do a little doctor shopping when it comes to election time. “This poll shows my candidate ahead, so I like that one.”

The PULSECAST cuts through the noise, distilling everything into a single percentage, aiming to answer the key question: who do experts think is most likely to win?

What does the PULSECAST not attempt to do?

The PULSECAST is not Stu Burguiere’s idea of who will win the election. It is not Glenn Beck’s idea of who will win the election. It is not TheBlaze.com's or Blaze TV’s or any of its hosts or writers opinions of who will win the election.

It is a summary of mainstream data experts and what they are saying.

This does not mean the consensus is right, of course. But knowing what they believe is going to happen can be helpful for judging their performance retrospectively, as well as generating palpable fear or calming optimism, depending on your perspective.

Why is it called the PULSECAST?

The idea was to have a finger on the pulse of all of these different electoral data sets.

It also is an acronym that stands for:

Predictive Update and Leveraged Summary of Electoral Consensus and Statistical Tracking.

This sounds like an acronym that you just retrofitted after coming up with the name.

How dare you.

Why bother looking at the polls in the first place?

We want polls to tell us who is going to win. They are limited in that way. Polls are good at telling us general stories, and not so great at telling us specific ones. They are more blunt instruments than surgical ones.

Every poll has a margin of error, on each side of the equation. If one candidate leads by six points, with a margin of error of three, the poll is telling us that there’s a 95% chance that the margin is between three and nine. There is a 5% chance it’s outside of that range entirely. (This is an example. Different polls have different margins.)

Another way to look at polls is like betting lines in sports. If one team is shown to be a seven point favorite, this doesn’t mean they are going to win by exactly seven. It means that most of the time, they will likely win. But, sometimes they will win by more, sometimes by less, and occasionally, they might even lose.

I think polls are stupid and fixed, so why would I care?

While we scoured the legal books far and wide, it turns out there’s no mandate requiring you to care about polls. Don’t like them? Feel free to pretend they don’t exist. However, campaigns don’t have that luxury. Whether we love them or not, both public and private polls play a crucial role in shaping campaign strategies, and influencing where candidates spend their time and resources. So, while we can ignore the polls, just know that the people trying to win your vote certainly won’t.

Well, I don’t want to look at your graphs and numbers.

I understand. Neither did any girls in high school.

POLL: What DARK government secrets will Trump uncover?

Mark Wilson / Staff | Getty Images

Will the dark secrets of the Deep State finally see the light of day? Or will they slip back into darkness, as they have many times before?

The Trump administration is gearing up to fulfill one of Trump's most anticipated campaign promises: to make the contents of the JFK files, along with other Deep State secrets, available to the public. Kash Patel, who has promised to publicize the highly anticipated files, is expected to be confirmed next week as Trump's director of the FBI. Moreover, the House Oversight Committee created a new task force headed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna called "Task Force on Declassification of Federal Secrets," which is tasked with investigating and declassifying information on the JFK, RFK, and MLK assassinations, UFOs, the Epstein list, COVID's origins, and 9/11. This all comes after the FBI found 2,400 "new" records relating to the assassination of President Kennedy following Trump's executive order to release the files.

Glenn discussed this topic with the cast of the Patrick Bet David podcast. Glenn expressed his confidence in Trump's radical transparency—on the condition that Kash Patel is confirmed. The cast was not as optimistic, expressing some doubt about whether Trump will actually unveil all that he has promised. But what do you think? What files are likely to see the light of day? And what files will continue to linger in the dark? Let us know in the poll below

Do you think the JFK, RFK, and MLK files will be unveiled?

Do you think the 9/11 files will be unveiled?

Do you think the COVID files will be unveiled?

Do you think the UFO files will be unveiled?

Do you think the Epstein list will be unveiled?

Transgender opera in Colombia? 10 SHOCKING ways USAID spent your tax dollars.

MANDEL NGAN / Contributor | Getty Images

The government has been doing what with our tax money!?

Under the determined eye of Elon Musk, DOGE has rooted out the corruption that permeates USAID, and it turns out that it's worse than we thought. Glenn recently read a list of atrocious causes that were funded by USAID, and the list was as long as it was shocking.

Since the January consumer index report was published today, one thing is clear: eggs are bearing the brunt of inflation. That's why we illustrated the extent of USAID's wasteful spending of YOUR taxpayer dollars by comparing it to the price of eggs. How many eggs could the American people have bought with their tax dollars that were given to a "transgender opera" in Colombia or indoctrinating Sri Lankans with woke gender ideology? The truth will shock you:

1. A “transgender opera” in Colombia

USAID spent $47,000 on a transgender opera in Colombia. That's over 135,000 eggs.

2. Sex changes and "LGBT activism" in Guatemala

$2 million was spent funding sex changes along with whatever "LGBT activism" means. That equates to over 5.7 million eggs!

3. Teaching Sri Lankan journalists how to avoid binary-gendered language

USAID forked over $7.9 million to combat the "gender binary" in Sri Lankan journalism. That could have bought nearly 23 million eggs.

4. Tourism in Egypt

$6 million (or just over 17 million eggs) was spent to fund tourism in Egypt. If only someone had thought to build some impressive landmarks...

5. A new "Sesame Street" show in Iraq

USAID spent $20 million to create a new Sesame Street show in Iraq. That's just short of 58 million eggs...

6. Helping the BBC value the diversity of Libyan society

$2.1 million was sent to the BBC (the British Broadcasting Corporation) to help them value the diversity of Libyan society (whatever that means). That could have bought over 6 million eggs.

7. Meals for a terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda

$10 million worth of USAID-funded meals went to an Al-Qaeda linked terrorist group. That comes up to be just shy of 29 million eggs.

8. Promoting inclusion in Vietnam 

A combined $19.3 million was sent to two separate inclusion groups in Vietnam inclusion groups in Vietnam (why where they separated? Not very inclusive of them). That's over 55 million eggs.

9. Promoting DEI in Serbia's workplaces

USAID sent $1.5 million (4.3 million eggs) to “advance diversity equity and inclusion in Serbia’s workplaces and business communities.”

10. Funding EcoHealth Alliance, tied to the Wuhan Institute of Virology's "bat research"

EcoHealth Alliance, one of the key NGOs that funded the Wuhan lab's bat virus research, received $5 million from USAID, which is equivalent to 14.5 million eggs.

The bottom line...

So, how much damage was done?

In total, approximately $73.8 million was wasted on the items on this list. That comes out to be 213 million eggs. Keep in mind that these are just the items on this list, there are many, many more that DOGE has uncovered and will uncover in the coming days. Case in point: that's a lot of eggs.

POLL: Should Trump stop producing pennies?

SAUL LOEB / Contributor, Chip Somodevilla / Staff | Getty Images

On Sunday, February 9th, President Trump ordered the U.S. Mint to halt the production of pennies. It costs the mint three cents to produce every penny, which Trump deemed wasteful. However, critics argue that axing the pennies will be compensated by ramping up nickel production, which costs 13 cents per coin.

In other news, President Trump promised on Truth Social that he would be reversing a Biden-era policy that mandated the use of paper straws throughout the federal government. From potentially slashing entire agencies to saying farewell to pennies and paper straws, Trump is hounding after wasteful spending of taxpayer dollars.

But what do you think? Was Trump right to put an end to pennies? And should plastic straws make a comeback? Let us know in the poll below:

Should Trump stop the production of pennies? 

Do you agree with Trump's reversal of the plastic straw ban?

Was this the most PATRIOTIC Super Bowl yet?

CHANDAN KHANNA / Contributor | Getty Images

The 2025 Super Bowl demonstrated Trump’s vision of a new America.

On Sunday, February 9th, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs in the biggest sporting event of the year. But this wasn't just a victory for Eagles fans. For those watching, it became apparent that American culture has changed, the zeitgeist has shifted, and America has become cool again. While remnants of woke culture lingered, they felt out of step next to the parade of American Flags and patriotic messaging that dominated the national event. The message was clear: America is back.

Everybody knows that the commercials are the best part of any Super Bowl, and last night's game was no exception. As Glenn has pointed out, while some of the ads still carried woke messages (like Nike's), many more captured the newly kindled patriotism felt nationwide. Here are four of the best commercials from last Sunday that make this the most patriotic Super Bowl yet:

1. Rocket: "Own the Dream"

This touching commercial by the financial services company, Rocket, states "Everyone deserves a shot at the American dream," while showing images of people returning home and building families. The ad included a cover of John Denver's iconic song "Take Me Home, Country Roads" and featured an in-stadium sing-along, live from the Super Bowl.

2. Secret Service: "A History of Protection"

Donald Trump made history by being the first sitting president to attend a Super Bowl, which required the efforts of hundreds of Secret Service agents to ensure his safety. The Secret Service boasted of this feat during their minute-long commercial, which lauded American values and achievements and featured iconic American imagery.

3. Brad Pitt: "Huddle Up"

The Super Bowl introduction celebrated snapshots of American achievement accompanied with a powerful commentary about unity narrated by Brad Pitt. The message is clear: Americans can achieve great things when we work together. The ad conjures up American ideals such as hard work, ingenuity, self-sacrifice, and teamwork.

4. Jeep: "Big Game"

Movie star Harrison Ford appeared in Jeep's Super Bowl commercial to promote freedom and to remind us that "freedom isn't free." Ford treks through the mountains while ruminating on what freedom means in America and the opportunities and responsibilities that come with it.