RADIOSeptember 19, 2024

Explained: Why the Fed lowering interest rates might be a BAD sign...

The Federal Reserve just lowered the interest rate by half a point, the first time it has been lowered since 2020, and only the 2nd time it has been lowered by half a point since 2020 and 2007. Is this an accommodative move, or just another restrictive move to try to avoid disaster for as long as possible? Recovering investment banker Carol Roth joins to break down what this lowering means, the possible good and bad signs for why this is happening now, how it'll affect you and your bank account, and what we must continue to look out for.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Welcome to the program, Carol Roth.

I'm hoping you can make sense. And maybe some good news out of what happened yesterday.

Because I can't find a way to it. Because of the history of cutting the interest rate this much.

My first thought is, this is election interference by the fed.

My second thought was, when did they last do this?

And it didn't -- neither of those things lead to good things.

So what's really going on here, Carol?

CAROL: Well, I just want you to know, Glenn. I'm unburdened by what has been. Now the market, in terms of interest rates. Because we are in a rate cutting environment. And I think the important thing to remember is that when we talk about, you know, rate hikes. Rate hikes.

Anything the fed is doing. We have to keep it in context. And the backdrop is that we came out of 15 years of what's called zero interest rate policy.

Where the interest rates were at or near zero.

Unprecedented. As well as the fed putting $9 trillion, plus on its balance sheet.

So this is an unprecedented -- does not have analogue, that we can directly compare to.

Not to say, it's not important to go back, and look at what happened historically. But it doesn't mean exactly the same thing.

And cutting 50 basis points. And half a percent today. Is different than we are cutting it. When interest rates are at 2 percent.

I just want to put that out. Also, somebody, who as we said, on this program many times. That I think the Fed has been way behind the curve. I think they went up too high. And that they were too slow, to cut to begin with. So we'll put that from a backdrop standpoint.

So how does the market interpret, and how should individuals interpret a cut?

Well, there's potentially the bad. And potentially the food. We'll walk through both of those real quickly.

The potential bad is the signal.

When you are saying that the economy is doing amazing. And is just -- you know, it's ripping along.

And then to do a very large cut. They could have done half of that. They could have done 25 basis points. But to come out after not doing anything. And say, oh, we have to move 60 points.

Can send a signal, to say things aren't going so well.

If you looked at the market, yesterday, they were not taking news.

GLENN: It went up, and then when he cut it, it went way down.

CAROL: And once they gave back all the gains yesterday. But today, they have had a day to digest it.

And the market thinks that this is a good thing. Now, the market is not the economy.

GLENN: Yes.

CAROL: But again, after 15 years of zero interest rate policy, you know, it does make sense for us to get back to say to what is considered a neutral rate.

GLENN: Is this a -- is this an inflationary move though?

CAROL: So that's the question. So if you think about what the neutral rate is. Which is theoretical. We don't know the number. But basically, it's the dividing line between policy that is restrictive and policy that is accommodative.

And what we're trying to do is have the Fed have no influence in either direction. I believe that we are still in that restrictive area.

So bringing it down, from -- two, four, and three-quarters, to 5 percent. Again, is not the same as bringing it down to 2 percent.

And so I don't think that will cause inflation. We have to remember too, again, going back to where I started. Companies and individuals have 15 years.

To take out debt. And basically no cost.

This is sitting on company's balance sheets.

They took every piece that they could.

And consumers right now, don't have a lot of runway.

So the idea of, you know, a rate cut, unleashing massive demand, when we've gone to, you know, three-quarters to 5 percent.

I don't see this as something that is going to unleash massive demand.

GLENN: Okay. Here's. Here's. I would just like your opinion on this.

As a businessman. I know, I wouldn't be spending a dime right now, on hiring. Building. Anything.

Not a dime, until I see what happens at the election. And depending on the election, if we go with Harris, and we become much more restrictive, and harder, and more global, and everything else.

I'm -- I mean, I'm just battening down the hatches. If Trump gets in.

I would be willing to they have. Because all right. Good. We have somebody who understands business.

We can hire some more people, et cetera, et cetera.

I don't see anybody making those moves rationally, no matter what the interest rate is.

At this point. Do you?

JASON: I think that's a logical way to digest it. I think in terms of one of your first statements. Is this term, political.

The Biden Harris administration, will be pushing out and saying, look, we have inflation under control.

The Fed said so, otherwise we wouldn't have lowered it or lowered it by so much.

So I think that is the push that they are going out and trying to convince people. Now, they've been trying to convince people of things that makes absolutely no sense, for the last three and a half years. So if I'm a businessperson.

Do I go ahead ask make the investments?

But are there some people that might? It is a push. I think the challenges. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. That if you get worried. That there is a recession.

And you create these restrictive behaviors. That becomes self-fulfilling. And that's one of the things that we end up worrying about.

GLENN: Correct.

So let me ask you about one more thing.

He mentioned the problem with unemployment. Unemployment is going up.

Because you just added 70 to 20 million people to the country.

Is -- I mean, people are saying, anecdotally that -- and we are I guess, seeing it in numbers, that the jobs that are being filled. Are being filled with illegals.

And not American citizens. How long can that go on, before it's just, you know, an absolute wreck?

JASON: So the way that I've interpreted the economy. Is I see it as K shaped.

If you think about the letter K. You have one at that one part of the K that goes up. And the other part that goes down.

And you have the people who are at the lower end of the K. Who have been struggling. And the people who are at that higher part in the K. The asset holders.

The people with the white color jobs in the homes, who have been doing well. And you have to remember, what we've been seeing, is that it really is that higher part of the K, that has been pulling the economy along.

So not only do we have those illegals who are coming in. And creating drains on everything.

Right?

They're creating drains on employment. On the national debt.

On housing. On everything.

But we're also starting to see, these cracks in the white color labor market.

When you hear Amazon saying, oh, we want everybody back in the office.

It means that companies now have the power to demand that. When they didn't have the power. And buried in that statement was. Oh, we're trying to get rid of some managers.

We're seeing more and more layoffs on the tech side.

So if we see that crack, from the white-collar piece. I think, at least in the short-term. That will have the biggest impact on shifting what's going to happen here.

And I think that's what the fed is signaling they're trying to get ahead of.

Whether or not they can do that remains to be seen. Because usually they're always late. But it's true. We have the drag on both sides. We have that drag that's happening on the white color piece.

And then we have this massive illegal immigration that is putting strains on the system.

And, you know, that is going to you, you know, completely shift things.

And I will say, Glenn. We hear all these people talking about technology. And AI.

And how it's going to replace jobs. You know, if you think it's going to replace jobs.

Jobs it will replace are unskilled workers. Right?

The person who is making your burrito with Chipotlé and the like. You can possibly make an argument that we do not need any more legal immigration in this country, with the exception of some very high merit-based people at all.

In addition to this, you know, travesty that is happening with the illegal immigration. So this is going to be, you know, hopefully, we can get President Trump in there. But this needs to be attacked in a serious fashion. Because it will have massive implications on the economy. On top of the biggest issue. And it feeds right into it.

Which is the debt and deficit spending that continues to grow that debt. The fact that that's unwieldy. So all of these things are puzzle pieces. But we can't let the noise about a fed rate cut. Or what's happening. Distract us from that big issue. We need to grow the economy. And we need to reduce spending.

So we can get debt to GDP back to a normalized level. And be able to save our country.

GLENN: Carol, thank you. I appreciate it. Carol Roth. The author of You Will Own Nothing. Former investment banker and a contributor to Blaze.

And also, to this program. I just love her. She explains things the way, you know, people like me, talk. Who -- just regular people. Carol, thank you so much.

It's CarolRoth.com/news.

CarolRoth.com/news.

Could passengers have SAVED Iryna Zarutska?

Surveillance footage of the murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte, NC, reveals that the other passengers on the train took a long time to help her. Glenn, Stu, and Jason debate whether they were right or wrong to do so.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: You know, I'm -- I'm torn on how I feel about the people on the train.

Because my first instinct is, they did nothing! They did nothing! Then my -- well, sit down and, you know -- you know, you're going to be judged. So be careful on judging others.

What would I have done? What would I want my wife to do in that situation?

STU: Yeah. Are those two different questions, by the way.

GLENN: Yeah, they are.

STU: I think they go far apart from each other. What would I want myself to do. I mean, it's tough to put yourself in a situation. It's very easy to watch a video on the internet and talk about your heroism. Everybody can do that very easily on Twitter. And everybody is.

You know, when you're in a vehicle that doesn't have an exit with a guy who just murdered somebody in front of you, and has a dripping blood off of a knife that's standing 10 feet away from you, 15 feet away from you.

There's probably a different standard there, that we should all kind of consider. And maybe give a little grace to what I saw at least was a woman, sitting across the -- the -- the aisle.

I think there is a difference there. But when you talk about that question. Those two questions are definitive.

You know, I know what I would want myself to do. I would hope I would act in a way that didn't completely embarrass myself afterward.

But I also think, when I'm thinking of my wife. My advice to my wife would not be to jump into the middle of that situation at all costs. She might do that anyway. She actually is a heck of a lot stronger than I am.

But she might do it anyway.

GLENN: How pathetic, but how true.

STU: Yes. But that would not be my advice to her.

GLENN: Uh-huh.

STU: Now, maybe once the guy has certainly -- is out of the area. And you don't think the moment you step into that situation. He will turn around and kill you too. Then, of course, obviously. Anything you can do to step in.

Not that there was much anyone on the train could do.

I mean, I don't think there was an outcome change, no matter what anyone on that train did.

Unfortunately.

But would I want her to step in?

Of course. If she felt she was safe, yes.

Think about, you said, your wife. Think about your daughter. Your daughter is on that train, just watching someone else getting murdered like that. Would you advise your daughter to jump into a situation like that?

That girl sitting across the aisle was somebody's daughter. I don't know, man.

JASON: I would. You know, as a dad, would I advise.

Hmm. No.

As a human being, would I hope that my daughter or my wife or that I would get up and at least comfort that woman while she's dying on the floor of a train?

Yeah.

I would hope that my daughter, my son, that I would -- and, you know, I have more confidence in my son or daughter or my wife doing something courageous more than I would.

But, you know, I think I have a more realistic picture of myself than anybody else.

And I'm not sure that -- I'm not sure what I would do in that situation. I know what I would hope I would do. But I also know what I fear I would do. But I would have hoped that I would have gotten up and at least tried to help her. You know, help her up off the floor. At least be there with her, as she's seeing her life, you know, spill out in under a minute.

And that's it other thing we have to keep in mind. This all happened so rapidly.

A minute is -- will seem like a very long period of time in that situation. But it's a very short period of time in real life.

STU: Yeah. You watch the video, Glenn. You know, I don't need the video to -- to change my -- my position on this.

But at his seem like there was a -- someone who did get there, eventually, to help, right? I saw someone seemingly trying to put pressure on her neck.

GLENN: Yeah. And tried to give her CPR.

STU: You know, no hope at that point. How long of a time period would you say that was?

Do you know off the top of your head?

GLENN: I don't know. I don't know. I know that we watched the video that I saw. I haven't seen past 30 seconds after she --

STU: Yeah.

GLENN: -- is down. And, you know, for 30 seconds nothing is happening. You know, that is -- that is not a very long period of time.

STU: Right.

GLENN: In reality.

STU: And especially, I saw the pace he was walking. He certainly can't be -- you know, he may have left the actual train car by 30 seconds to a minute. But he wasn't that far away. Like he was still in visual.

He could still turn around and look and see what's going on at that point. So certainly still a threat is my point. He has not, like, left the area. This is not that type of situation.

You know, I -- look, as you point out, I think if I could be super duper sexist for a moment here, sort of my dividing line might just be men and women.

You know, I don't know if it's that a -- you're not supposed to say that, I suppose these days. But, like, there is a difference there. If I'm a man, you know, I would be -- I would want my son to jump in on that, I suppose. I don't know if he could do anything about it. But you would expect at least a grown man to be able to go in there and do something about it. A woman, you know, I don't know.

Maybe I'm -- I hope --

GLENN: Here's the thing I -- here's the thing that I -- that causes me to say, no. You should have jumped in.

And that is, you know, you've already killed one person on the train. So you've proven that you're a killer. And anybody who would have screamed and got up and was with her, she's dying. She's dying. Get him. Get him.

Then the whole train is responsible for stopping that guy. You know. And if you don't stop him, after he's killed one person, if you're not all as members of that train, if you're not stopping him, you know, the person at the side of that girl would be the least likely to be killed. It would be the ones that are standing you up and trying to stop him from getting back to your daughter or your wife or you.

JASON: There was a -- speaking of men and women and their roles in this. There was a video circling social media yesterday. In Sweden. There was a group of officials up on a stage. And one of the main. I think it was health official woman collapses on stage. Completely passes out.

All the men kind of look away. Or I don't know if they're looking away. Or pretending that they didn't know what was going on. There was another woman standing directly behind the woman passed out.

Immediately springs into action. Jumps on top. Grabs her pant leg. Grabs her shoulder. Spins her over and starts providing care.

What did she have that the other guys did not? Or women?

She was a sheepdog. There is a -- this is my issue. And I completely agree with Stu. I completely agree with you. There's some people that do not respond this way. My issue is the proportion of sheepdogs versus people that don't really know how to act. That is diminishing in western society. And American society.

We see it all the time in these critical actions. I mean, circumstances.

There are men and women, and it's actually a meme. That fantasize about hoards of people coming to attack their home and family. And they sit there and say, I've got it. You guys go. I'm staying behind, while I smoke my cigarette and wait for the hoards to come, because I will sacrifice myself. There are men and women that fantasize of block my highway. Go ahead. Block my highway. I'm going to do something about it. They fantasize about someone holding up -- not a liquor store. A convenience store or something. Because they will step in and do something. My issue now is that proportion of sheepdogs in society is disappearing. Just on statistical fact, there should be one within that train car, and there were none.

STU: Yeah. I mean --

JASON: They did not respond.

STU: We see what happens when they do, with Daniel Penny. Our society tries to vilify them and crush their existence. Now, there weren't that many people on that train. Right?

At least on that car. At least it's limited. I only saw three or four people there, there may have been more. I agree with you, though. Like, you see what happens when we actually do have a really recent example of someone doing exactly what Jason wants and what I would want a guy to do. Especially a marine to step up and stop this from happening. And the man was dragged by our legal system to a position where he nearly had to spend the rest of his life in prison.

I mean, I -- it's insanity. Thankfully, they came to their senses on that one.

GLENN: Well, the difference between that one and this one though is that the guy was threatening. This one, he killed somebody.

STU: Yeah. Right. Well, but -- I think -- but it's the opposite way. The debate with Penny, was should he have recognize that had this person might have just been crazy and not done anything?

Maybe. He hadn't actually acted yet. He was just saying things.

GLENN: Yeah. Well --

STU: He didn't wind up stabbing someone. This is a situation where these people have already seen what this man will do to you, even when you don't do anything to try to stop him. So if this woman, who is, again, looks to be an average American woman.

Across the aisle. Steps in and tries to do something. This guy could easily turn around and just make another pile of dead bodies next to the one that already exists.

And, you know, whether that is an optimal solution for our society, I don't know that that's helpful.

In that situation.

THE GLENN BECK PODCAST

Max Lucado on Overcoming Grief in Dark Times | The Glenn Beck Podcast | Ep 266

Disclaimer: This episode was filmed prior to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. But Glenn believes Max's message is needed now more than ever.
The political world is divided, constantly at war with itself. In many ways, our own lives are not much different. Why do we constantly focus on the negative? Why are we in pain? Where is God amid our anxiety and fear? Why can’t we ever seem to change? Pastor Max Lucado has found the solution: Stop thinking like that! It may seem easier said than done, but Max joins Glenn Beck to unpack the three tools he describes in his new book, “Tame Your Thoughts,” that make it easy for us to reset the way we think back to God’s factory settings. In this much-needed conversation, Max and Glenn tackle everything from feeling doubt as a parent to facing unfair hardships to ... UFOs?! Plus, Max shares what he recently got tattooed on his arm.

THE GLENN BECK PODCAST

Are Demonic Forces to Blame for Charlie Kirk, Minnesota & Charlotte Killings?

This week has seen some of the most heinous actions in recent memory. Glenn has been discussing the growth of evil in our society, and with the assassination of civil rights leader Charlie Kirk, the recent transgender shooter who took the lives of two children at a Catholic school, and the murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska, how can we make sense of all this evil? On today's Friday Exclusive, Glenn speaks with BlazeTV host of "Strange Encounters" Rick Burgess to discuss the demon-possessed transgender shooter and the horrific assassination of Charlie Kirk. Rick breaks down the reality of demon possession and how individuals wind up possessed. Rick and Glenn also discuss the dangers of the grotesque things we see online and in movies, TV shows, and video games on a daily basis. Rick warns that when we allow our minds to be altered by substances like drugs or alcohol, it opens a door for the enemy to take control. A supernatural war is waging in our society, and it’s a Christian’s job to fight this war. Glenn and Rick remind Christians of what their first citizenship is.