It may be easy to look at the economy and President Biden’s AWFUL approval ratings and therefore assume the midterm elections will be a piece of cake for Republicans. But that’s actually NOT the case. In fact, because of how the 2022 midterms are broken down structurally, winning a Senate majority could be an uphill battle for the GOP. Glenn and Stu explain why it won’t be an ‘obvious home run’ for the right. PLUS, Glenn details a possible theory as to why Democrats now are choosing to focus on President Trump once again…
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: So, Stu, I saw some really disturbing things. Here's -- here's one headline. This one is coming from the Guardian.
The Republican Party has reason to fear the midterms. Oh. Okay. And then, 2022 Senate election forecast from FiveThirtyEight.
Democrats win 61 in 100. Republicans win 39 in 100.
STU: Yeah. That's not good.
GLENN: No. That's not good.
STU: That's not good. And the Republicans were ahead on that breakdown earlier. It's always been close. And we did our first Senate preview a couple months ago, on Stu Does America. In which I said, look, this is not easy. Like, what -- I think it feels easy, because I talked to a lot of my conservative friends who look at Biden and his approval rating, and think, obviously, this is a home run. You take the house and Senate back. Part of it is structural, in which seats don't line up particularly well for Republicans this cycle.
This goes back and forth. In 2024, it's a very good cycle for Republicans.
So they have a real advantage structurally in 2024. That's not the case here. In 2022, the Democrats have an advantage structurally. It's just a matter of which seats are up, in which states.
So it's harder for Republicans to -- to take those -- those purple opportunities, those blue-leaning opportunities, and grab them. In a the climate, in which they are favored.
GLENN: Yes. However, the House is the opposite. Where the House is basically all climate. That's how it's decided every single time. Now, individual candidates can affect races.
And you may lose a race or two, because you nominated a crappy candidate. But generally speaking, that should be much easier for Republicans to win. Now, they have to win up of these two. If they don't win one of these two. That's really, really bad.
GLENN: Yeah. I mean, I don't want to say end of republic. But end of republic kind of stuff.
STU: It feels that way.
GLENN: We talk about this every election. People say, most important election of our lifetime. I think this is the last one of the republic, if the -- if the Democrats win both houses and have the presidency. And there is no stopping them. There's no speed bump. It's just all going to be left up to the states.
STU: Well, speed bump this time has been their own party. Joe Manchin. Kyrsten Sinema.
GLENN: Yeah. That worked out well.
STU: And as we promised you from the beginning. Joe Manchin will never save you. He'll never come to your rescue. He'll never be on a horse there, to make sure you're just a-okay in the end. He will always screw you, every single time. That's how this story ends. Just want to remind voters in West Virginia, who voted for Donald Trump by 39 points last election! That maybe Joe Manchin should not be the choice next time, if he chooses to run again. Just a little request from the rest of the country. We have tons of crappy senators all around the rest of the country, but really, we shouldn't have any from West Virginia. That shouldn't be an option.
STU: So hopefully, that one gets rectified.
GLENN: While he's on that the topic. I would just like to say, next election, will someone please run against Mitt Romney. And throw him the hell out too?
STU: That would be nice. That would be nice.
GLENN: Your turn.
STU: Okay. Now that we're done with our bitching.
STU: So the Republicans are favored to win the House. Again, it's a 4:1 type of thing. It's about 80-20, according to FiveThirtyEight. Which again, it's no sure thing. Though it is -- there are heavy favorites at this point. There has been some -- a big media push, to try to come up with reasons why this is going to turn around, and Democrats are going to win. One of the big ones is the abortion thing. They're trying to make the Kansas election into this beacon of hope for Democrats.
That they will be able to get all that energy behind their base. And they will all come out and vote. Because they're so sad, that they can't kill children anymore. That they'll wind up winning this election. I think the Kansas thing. We talked about this right after. I think the Kansas thing was a very isolated, weird answer. It wasn't particularly written well. It was right after the overturn. Which was not planned. It was supposed to happen before an overturn of Roe vs. Wade happened. That was the idea behind it. The energy was all with the Democrats, in an on off election, during a primary. Where not everyone is focused on it. Blah, blah, blah. I think if you brought that same thing up in Kansas in two years, it will pass on our side. But we'll see. Because they will try it again surely. I don't think on an Election Day, where everyone is going to be focused on it. That you'll get more energy out of the left on abortion, than on the right, for Biden's performance, for inflation, for the economy, for raiding the former president's house. For all the things that Republicans are fired up about. I don't think there's any chance that that works.
GLENN: So I heard speculation, that over the weekend, they wanted Donald Trump to win.
They want Donald Trump. They want him. They want him up in the polls. They want his people, very excited. And they said that they thought -- this person that I was talking to, thought that this was intentional from the left.
Because they wanted to make this campaign as well, about Donald Trump.
STU: I don't think that that is crazy. Now, I don't know that you would say -- it doesn't make any --
GLENN: Stu. Stu. It's 2022. Nothing is crazy.
STU: That's a good point. There's two ways to look at this, right? If you're a Democrat. Number one, you have Donald Trump, who is a known quantity. You know for sure, that 45 percent of the country hates his guts. And will never vote for him, no matter what. Like, that is the starting point of this election, okay?
You also know that 45 percent of the country, will walk through a wall of fire to vote for the guy. So you take your chance with the few people in the middle, and hope that you can squeak out a relatively close election, with those people, generally speaking, in the suburbs. And generally speaking, women, who in 2016, lean towards Trump. In 2020, lean towards Biden.
And you say, they're not going to go back to Trump. The things that turned them off from Trump in 2020, have not gone away. He will be decisive as he's ever been. And we can walk that same line.
The other side of this is, in support of your friend's theory here. Is the idea that we don't know how to fight that battle against Ron DeSantis. We have shown no ability to put a dent in what he's tried to do in Florida. Now, they -- this is a risky strategy for Democrats.
Because, again, if you believe Democrats, they will tell you that Donald Trump is actually Hitler. So to promote his candidacy, would be something that is against every human --
GLENN: Well, I have read, Ron -- Trump is Hitler. Ron DeSantis is worse.
STU: Is worse, of course. Every single --
GLENN: It's every single time. So I don't know who -- I mean, Lucifer, I guess.
STU: Right. Now, we do not have. Looking at the DeSantis option, they don't know how to beat him. They have not shown the ability to beat him. They took a situation, where they probably should have beat him for the first the time, when he was running for governor. And lost.
And they have not been able to put a dent in him. He will win this election easily, by all appearances here in Florida for governor. So they don't really -- they don't have a great strategy on this one yet.
The other thing is though, they don't have 45 percent of people, who see Ron DeSantis as a movement. A lot of conservatives like him. But even just in name familiarity, he's nowhere near the situation Donald Trump is. It's a risky strategy, if they believe that Donald Trump is uniquely dangerous. That's their case on all this stuff.
We should be able to do this stuff. You shouldn't worry about us raiding a former president's home, because he's so uniquely terrible and dangerous to the country. That's their entire case. Yet, here they are, theoretically, wanting to run against him, because they think they can defeat him. Now, look, they made that same bet in 2016. They did -- I mean, MSNBC aired every single one of his rallies in full, in 2016.
The same thing with CNN. They went out and gave this guy an incredible amount of free media, during the primary. Which was a big reason why he wound up winning the primary. I mean, you know, that's been well-covered. Then they wound up getting burned by it, in a big, big way.
GLENN: How -- let me get back to the House and Senate race.
How are the people that would vote like Trump -- and I mean that are really dedicated to, all right. Let's abolish. Let's abolish the Department of Education. Let's use every constitutional thing that we have, and I'm tired of Mitch McConnell, and all of this crap.
How many people are running and who are winning, that appear to be those kinds of people. Is there any kind of sense of that yet?
STU: It's pretty mixed. It's mixed on the type of race they're in. We're seeing people who Trump has endorsed doing really well in the places where you kind of expect. Right?
Where more red states. You know, the obvious example of the alternate, is Dr. Oz, who is not doing well against a man who is barely alive. A man who --
GLENN: Oh, he's still alive?
STU: I think. I've seen footage of him recently. And I'm starting to question it. But I mean, Fetterman. You know, the man had -- he wasn't good before this. But he had a massive stroke. He's hidden from the public in Pennsylvania, for months.
GLENN: Do you mean like, he's in his basement?
STU: Like, he's running the Joe Biden 2020 campaign all over again.
GLENN: It's crazy, isn't it?
STU: Sometimes. And it certainly so far, has worked for him. Staying out of the spotlight. And not reminding people who you are. Works really well sometimes. Especially with someone like Dr. Oz, who is so well-known. And, again, immediately sets a giant percentage of the population into two camps.
And unlike Donald Trump, who has a big movement behind him. In support, I'll walk through a wall of fire. There isn't that sort of movement for Dr. Oz.
GLENN: No. Because the people who really knew him, were kind of opera fans. And I don't think the Venn diagram of Oprah and Trump.
STU: To cross over.
GLENN: I would like to see that. It might be 10 feet apart.
STU: So the polls in Pennsylvania show Fetterman up by double digits most of them.
GLENN: Oh, my gosh.
STU: Now, if you look at the overall Senate, the easy way to understand this, at this very moment. Is to basically start out -- start your process at 46-46. Okay? The seats that aren't up for election. Plus, the ones that should be easy for both sides. There's some -- there's possibilities, that there could be a couple of these races, that would move in future months. But if you start right now, you're at 46-46 with eight races left in the middle. That are theoretically winnable for either side. That would include Pennsylvania, by the way.
GLENN: That's not winnable. Between that and the corruption in Pennsylvania. I'm not convinced they've cleaned that up.
STU: If you take that one and leave the one for a moment, Republicans would have to win five of the eight races to take control. Now, in that race, you're talking about Pennsylvania. You're talking about Wisconsin. You're talking about Nevada. These are not necessarily hard-core red states, that should be easy. Though they are all theoretically winnable. Arizona is another one. Georgia, we talked to Herschel Walker the other day. That race, polling showing him slightly behind. I thought he had a good appearance the other day on the show. And it's important that he win that race, it's crucial.
New Hampshire is one that in a wave election, is winnable for Republicans
And it's a close race. The polling should be very close. But will they be able to pull that off?
You have North Carolina in there as well.
You mentioned Ohio. Ohio is one that they will win.
GLENN: That's one.
STU: If you look at Arizona, it could do go either way. Georgia, I think should be one that they be favored on. But they've really gone off Herschel Walker. And they've hurt him. It's a close race. New Hampshire is typically one that you assume would lose. But is winnable and looks like it's a tight race. North Carolina. Again, it's a purple state. It's one of the closest states in the 2020 election.
Nevada, you're trying to take out A Democratic incumbent, but I think it's winnable, especially if this is a Republican-leaning year.
Pennsylvania, I think really was winnable if the primary went the other way. Now is really a question. Then you have Wisconsin and Ohio.
GLENN: Okay. So here's the message from all this: Write it down on your calendar. Make reason you -- I've never said, go pick people up and take them. I've never been. Hey. Maybe we should get a bus.
Get a bus. Everyone you know has got to vote. Has got to vote. Or it doesn't stop.