RADIOAugust 17, 2022

NO, the midterms WON’T BE EASY for Republicans. Here’s why.

It may be easy to look at the economy and President Biden’s AWFUL approval ratings and therefore assume the midterm elections will be a piece of cake for Republicans. But that’s actually NOT the case. In fact, because of how the 2022 midterms are broken down structurally, winning a Senate majority could be an uphill battle for the GOP. Glenn and Stu explain why it won’t be an ‘obvious home run’ for the right. PLUS, Glenn details a possible theory as to why Democrats now are choosing to focus on President Trump once again…

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So, Stu, I saw some really disturbing things. Here's -- here's one headline. This one is coming from the Guardian.

The Republican Party has reason to fear the midterms. Oh. Okay. And then, 2022 Senate election forecast from FiveThirtyEight.

Democrats win 61 in 100. Republicans win 39 in 100.

STU: Yeah. That's not good.

GLENN: No. That's not good.

STU: That's not good. And the Republicans were ahead on that breakdown earlier. It's always been close. And we did our first Senate preview a couple months ago, on Stu Does America. In which I said, look, this is not easy. Like, what -- I think it feels easy, because I talked to a lot of my conservative friends who look at Biden and his approval rating, and think, obviously, this is a home run. You take the house and Senate back. Part of it is structural, in which seats don't line up particularly well for Republicans this cycle.

This goes back and forth. In 2024, it's a very good cycle for Republicans.

So they have a real advantage structurally in 2024. That's not the case here. In 2022, the Democrats have an advantage structurally. It's just a matter of which seats are up, in which states.

So it's harder for Republicans to -- to take those -- those purple opportunities, those blue-leaning opportunities, and grab them. In a the climate, in which they are favored.

GLENN: Yes. However, the House is the opposite. Where the House is basically all climate. That's how it's decided every single time. Now, individual candidates can affect races.

And you may lose a race or two, because you nominated a crappy candidate. But generally speaking, that should be much easier for Republicans to win. Now, they have to win up of these two. If they don't win one of these two. That's really, really bad.

GLENN: Yeah. I mean, I don't want to say end of republic. But end of republic kind of stuff.

STU: It feels that way.

GLENN: We talk about this every election. People say, most important election of our lifetime. I think this is the last one of the republic, if the -- if the Democrats win both houses and have the presidency. And there is no stopping them. There's no speed bump. It's just all going to be left up to the states.

STU: Well, speed bump this time has been their own party. Joe Manchin. Kyrsten Sinema.

GLENN: Yeah. That worked out well.

STU: And as we promised you from the beginning. Joe Manchin will never save you. He'll never come to your rescue. He'll never be on a horse there, to make sure you're just a-okay in the end. He will always screw you, every single time. That's how this story ends. Just want to remind voters in West Virginia, who voted for Donald Trump by 39 points last election! That maybe Joe Manchin should not be the choice next time, if he chooses to run again. Just a little request from the rest of the country. We have tons of crappy senators all around the rest of the country, but really, we shouldn't have any from West Virginia. That shouldn't be an option.

GLENN: No.

STU: So hopefully, that one gets rectified.

GLENN: While he's on that the topic. I would just like to say, next election, will someone please run against Mitt Romney. And throw him the hell out too?

STU: That would be nice. That would be nice.

GLENN: Your turn.

STU: Okay. Now that we're done with our bitching.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: So the Republicans are favored to win the House. Again, it's a 4:1 type of thing. It's about 80-20, according to FiveThirtyEight. Which again, it's no sure thing. Though it is -- there are heavy favorites at this point. There has been some -- a big media push, to try to come up with reasons why this is going to turn around, and Democrats are going to win. One of the big ones is the abortion thing. They're trying to make the Kansas election into this beacon of hope for Democrats.

That they will be able to get all that energy behind their base. And they will all come out and vote. Because they're so sad, that they can't kill children anymore. That they'll wind up winning this election. I think the Kansas thing. We talked about this right after. I think the Kansas thing was a very isolated, weird answer. It wasn't particularly written well. It was right after the overturn. Which was not planned. It was supposed to happen before an overturn of Roe vs. Wade happened. That was the idea behind it. The energy was all with the Democrats, in an on off election, during a primary. Where not everyone is focused on it. Blah, blah, blah. I think if you brought that same thing up in Kansas in two years, it will pass on our side. But we'll see. Because they will try it again surely. I don't think on an Election Day, where everyone is going to be focused on it. That you'll get more energy out of the left on abortion, than on the right, for Biden's performance, for inflation, for the economy, for raiding the former president's house. For all the things that Republicans are fired up about. I don't think there's any chance that that works.

GLENN: So I heard speculation, that over the weekend, they wanted Donald Trump to win.

They want Donald Trump. They want him. They want him up in the polls. They want his people, very excited. And they said that they thought -- this person that I was talking to, thought that this was intentional from the left.

Because they wanted to make this campaign as well, about Donald Trump.

STU: I don't think that that is crazy. Now, I don't know that you would say -- it doesn't make any --

GLENN: Stu. Stu. It's 2022. Nothing is crazy.

STU: That's a good point. There's two ways to look at this, right? If you're a Democrat. Number one, you have Donald Trump, who is a known quantity. You know for sure, that 45 percent of the country hates his guts. And will never vote for him, no matter what. Like, that is the starting point of this election, okay?

You also know that 45 percent of the country, will walk through a wall of fire to vote for the guy. So you take your chance with the few people in the middle, and hope that you can squeak out a relatively close election, with those people, generally speaking, in the suburbs. And generally speaking, women, who in 2016, lean towards Trump. In 2020, lean towards Biden.

And you say, they're not going to go back to Trump. The things that turned them off from Trump in 2020, have not gone away. He will be decisive as he's ever been. And we can walk that same line.

The other side of this is, in support of your friend's theory here. Is the idea that we don't know how to fight that battle against Ron DeSantis. We have shown no ability to put a dent in what he's tried to do in Florida. Now, they -- this is a risky strategy for Democrats.

Because, again, if you believe Democrats, they will tell you that Donald Trump is actually Hitler. So to promote his candidacy, would be something that is against every human --

GLENN: Well, I have read, Ron -- Trump is Hitler. Ron DeSantis is worse.

STU: Is worse, of course. Every single --

GLENN: It's every single time. So I don't know who -- I mean, Lucifer, I guess.

STU: Right. Now, we do not have. Looking at the DeSantis option, they don't know how to beat him. They have not shown the ability to beat him. They took a situation, where they probably should have beat him for the first the time, when he was running for governor. And lost.

And they have not been able to put a dent in him. He will win this election easily, by all appearances here in Florida for governor. So they don't really -- they don't have a great strategy on this one yet.

The other thing is though, they don't have 45 percent of people, who see Ron DeSantis as a movement. A lot of conservatives like him. But even just in name familiarity, he's nowhere near the situation Donald Trump is. It's a risky strategy, if they believe that Donald Trump is uniquely dangerous. That's their case on all this stuff.

We should be able to do this stuff. You shouldn't worry about us raiding a former president's home, because he's so uniquely terrible and dangerous to the country. That's their entire case. Yet, here they are, theoretically, wanting to run against him, because they think they can defeat him. Now, look, they made that same bet in 2016. They did -- I mean, MSNBC aired every single one of his rallies in full, in 2016.

The same thing with CNN. They went out and gave this guy an incredible amount of free media, during the primary. Which was a big reason why he wound up winning the primary. I mean, you know, that's been well-covered. Then they wound up getting burned by it, in a big, big way.

GLENN: How -- let me get back to the House and Senate race.

How are the people that would vote like Trump -- and I mean that are really dedicated to, all right. Let's abolish. Let's abolish the Department of Education. Let's use every constitutional thing that we have, and I'm tired of Mitch McConnell, and all of this crap.

How many people are running and who are winning, that appear to be those kinds of people. Is there any kind of sense of that yet?

STU: It's pretty mixed. It's mixed on the type of race they're in. We're seeing people who Trump has endorsed doing really well in the places where you kind of expect. Right?

Where more red states. You know, the obvious example of the alternate, is Dr. Oz, who is not doing well against a man who is barely alive. A man who --

GLENN: Oh, he's still alive?

STU: I think. I've seen footage of him recently. And I'm starting to question it. But I mean, Fetterman. You know, the man had -- he wasn't good before this. But he had a massive stroke. He's hidden from the public in Pennsylvania, for months.

GLENN: Do you mean like, he's in his basement?

STU: Like, he's running the Joe Biden 2020 campaign all over again.

GLENN: It's crazy, isn't it?

STU: Sometimes. And it certainly so far, has worked for him. Staying out of the spotlight. And not reminding people who you are. Works really well sometimes. Especially with someone like Dr. Oz, who is so well-known. And, again, immediately sets a giant percentage of the population into two camps.

And unlike Donald Trump, who has a big movement behind him. In support, I'll walk through a wall of fire. There isn't that sort of movement for Dr. Oz.

GLENN: No. Because the people who really knew him, were kind of opera fans. And I don't think the Venn diagram of Oprah and Trump.

STU: To cross over.

GLENN: I would like to see that. It might be 10 feet apart.

STU: So the polls in Pennsylvania show Fetterman up by double digits most of them.

GLENN: Oh, my gosh.

STU: Now, if you look at the overall Senate, the easy way to understand this, at this very moment. Is to basically start out -- start your process at 46-46. Okay? The seats that aren't up for election. Plus, the ones that should be easy for both sides. There's some -- there's possibilities, that there could be a couple of these races, that would move in future months. But if you start right now, you're at 46-46 with eight races left in the middle. That are theoretically winnable for either side. That would include Pennsylvania, by the way.

GLENN: That's not winnable. Between that and the corruption in Pennsylvania. I'm not convinced they've cleaned that up.

STU: If you take that one and leave the one for a moment, Republicans would have to win five of the eight races to take control. Now, in that race, you're talking about Pennsylvania. You're talking about Wisconsin. You're talking about Nevada. These are not necessarily hard-core red states, that should be easy. Though they are all theoretically winnable. Arizona is another one. Georgia, we talked to Herschel Walker the other day. That race, polling showing him slightly behind. I thought he had a good appearance the other day on the show. And it's important that he win that race, it's crucial.

New Hampshire is one that in a wave election, is winnable for Republicans

And it's a close race. The polling should be very close. But will they be able to pull that off?

You have North Carolina in there as well.

You mentioned Ohio. Ohio is one that they will win.

GLENN: That's one.

STU: If you look at Arizona, it could do go either way. Georgia, I think should be one that they be favored on. But they've really gone off Herschel Walker. And they've hurt him. It's a close race. New Hampshire is typically one that you assume would lose. But is winnable and looks like it's a tight race. North Carolina. Again, it's a purple state. It's one of the closest states in the 2020 election.

Nevada, you're trying to take out A Democratic incumbent, but I think it's winnable, especially if this is a Republican-leaning year.

Pennsylvania, I think really was winnable if the primary went the other way. Now is really a question. Then you have Wisconsin and Ohio.

GLENN: Okay. So here's the message from all this: Write it down on your calendar. Make reason you -- I've never said, go pick people up and take them. I've never been. Hey. Maybe we should get a bus.

Get a bus. Everyone you know has got to vote. Has got to vote. Or it doesn't stop.

This Russian nuke warning is HORRIFIC… for an UNEXPECTED reason

Glenn Beck reviews a video of Aleksandr Dugin, known as “Putin’s brain,” warning that nuclear war is inevitable. But this warning from Russia is absolutely terrifying for another reason: it’s NOT REAL …

THE GLENN BECK PODCAST

Operation Fast and Furious: The TRUE Story of How the Feds were Running Guns into Mexico

The Border Crisis has been ongoing for years, and one of the biggest scandals was the ATF “gunwalking” scandal known as Operation Fast and Furious which occurred during when Barack Obama was President. Glenn Beck talks with John Dodson, the whistleblower who revealed the scandal to get the facts about what happened and why it was a flawed operation from its inception.
Watch the FULL Interview HERE

Glenn Beck & Piers Morgan REACT to Trump's Iran Strike & What Comes Next

Glenn Beck joins Piers Morgan to react to President Trump's decision to strike Iran's Nuclear Facilities and what could come next with the conflict. Is this just the start of a larger conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, or will this move by Trump put at least a temporary end to the brewing tensions?

Meet the pro-Intifada candidate NYC Democrats just elected

New York City Democrats just elected 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a "socialist Muslim", as the Party's candidate for mayor. But Glenn Beck argues that his radical beliefs are actually communist and Islamist.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

VOICE: Z10852. Something weird is going on. The World Trade Center is on fire.

VOICE: Seriously the top of the building. We're trying to get information.

VOICE: Top level of one of the --

VOICE: To unfold from New York City.

VOICE: A plane crashed just --

VOICE: My sister is in that believe. I hope she's okay. I have to come to New York.

VOICE: It's pandemonium.

VOICE: It's raining papers.

VOICE: Wait a minute! Stop just a second. Why are we -- why are we -- I've got breaking news. Breaking news, yesterday. New York City just elected as their mayoral candidate for the left. And the Democrats, a -- a Muslim radical, who is also a communist!

So, you know, it only took you 25 years. It only took you 25 years, New York, to go completely insane.

Somebody who is -- well, I mean, if I might quote Michael malice today. I am old enough to remember when New Yorkers endured 9/11 instead of voting for it.

But you've got a -- you've got a communist jihadist apologist now.

Who was -- you know, well, CAIR put $100,000 behind his bid for New York City mayor.

So you have somebody who is endorsed by CAIR. That's really good.

He also was somebody who said, you know, he was -- he was for the shooting of the United Health Care CEO.

Said he was looking forward to driving down magnum Joan avenue. I don't know. Sounds like supporting people in the streets. Maybe it's just me.

Then he also said that he was going to globalize the intifada, which I think that's -- maybe -- maybe that's just me.

I mean, what do I know?

Tim Miller who is a podcaster. Asked him a few weeks ago. Asked him about his pro Palestinian slogan. Globalized the intifada. And he said, for me, ultimately, what I hear in so many, is a desperate desire for equality and equal rights, in standing up for Palistinian human rights. Oh, is that what you hear, Mr. CAIR?

Really? Huh, that's interesting.

Right. So globalize the intifada.

I mean, I mean, sure, that's -- I mean well, let me go on.

Because I don't want to take him out of context.

He then delved into the semantics of the intifada, citing the United States Holocaust memorial museum's use of a word for a translation for uprising, in an Arabic version of an article, a museum published about the Warsaw ghetto.

Oh!

So this is just a comparison, about the -- the armed rebellion against the Nazis!

I don't know if that makes me feel better!

I mean, if we're globalizing that.

We're the Nazis in this scenario.

Because I don't think it's the Palestinians.

I certainly don't think it's anybody who is like, hey.

Global jihad. I don't think it's those guys.

Or the Nazis. Who are the Nazis in that?

And it seems, if that's what you mean, then it's not just a harmless kind of slogan about human rights. It is a call for violence on the streets.

Because I don't know if you know, that's what happened when the Jews had their uprising against the Nazis.

I'm just saying!

But, hey, hey, free Palestine.

Oh, that's not what that means, gang. That is not what that means, but don't worry about it. He's just going to be possibly the new mayor.

And that's great. By the way, the Columbia faculty members signed a letter defending Hamas.

They were also among the donors to his mayoral campaign.

So, you know, you don't have anything to worry about.

And his father, who used to work at Columbia. Do you know, Stu?

Is his Dad -- is he still a professor at Columbia University?

He said that -- this violent terror thing of Islam, is not a part of Islam. Now, I've read the Koran, and much of the hadith.

And I'm pretty sure the violence is a part of that. But no.

No. This is something entirely new.

And his father while at Columbia university, wanted everybody to know, that this is actually -- this is something that came out of America!

America is really responsible for this.

And, you know, it really started with the Reagan administration, you know, when he started -- when he started with his very religious terms, to finish the war against the evil empire.

So, you know, that's where -- that's where 9/11 came from.

Is what -- don't worry about it! Don't worry about it!

Because who am I? I'm clearly just -- am I an anti-Semite today, or am I an Islamophobic? I can't remember which one.

Oh, it's probably both. Anyway, Islamophobia. Let me just explain Islamophobia. I haven't even gotten to the Communist part of it. Which is really, really -- New York, you're in one for hell of a ride. Buckle up.

It will be a fun rollercoaster for you. My gosh, I've never been happier that I've been away are if New York.

Anyway, I just want I to know, there is Islam. And then there is Islamists. Now, an Islamist is somebody who really wants Sharia law.

That's political Islam!

That's not a faith. That's political Islam.

Now, let me make really -- something really clear. Criticizing Islamism, is not Islamophobia. Pointing out the dangers of, oh. I don't know.

Political Islam. The ideology that seeks to use the tools of democracy, ultimately to destroy democracy, is not an attack on Muslims.

No. Uh-uh.

You know why?

Because Muslims are often the first people in line.

The first victims of the ideology.

So let's draw a bright, bright line between Islam as a faith, millions of people can practice that faithfully and peacefully.

It's mostly peaceful, okay?

Then there's the Islamism.

Islamism is something entirely -- that's a political project.

A theocratic political -- oh. Left loves theocracies. They love it.

Of course, you never see a problem with it.

See it when an Islamist is touting it. Anyway, it's not about prayer. It's not about fasting. It's not about spiritual life.

It's all about power. It's about merging of mosque and state. It's about implementing Sharia, not as a personal code of conduct. But as a governing legal system.

And it's -- it's supremacy.

Absolutely. Faith.

Religion.

It's -- there's one thing that's supreme.

It's misogynistic.

Deeply intolerant of all kinds of things.

Descent. Secularism. Other faiths. Even competing interpretations from inside the faith itself.

It will behead them too.

So let's -- let's be honest here for a second.

You know, CAIR should be labeled an international terror organization.

In my opinion. In my opinion.

Oh, does that make me -- that makes me an Islamophobe. I'm sure. I'm sure they will start a campaign against me on being an Islamophobe.

Stand in line, guys. You've been doing it since 2001, okay?

I don't really care. And I don't think the American people. I think that record, all the grooves are worn-out on that one, okay?

This is not a religion we're talking about. When we're talking about Sharia law. And we're talking about globalize the intifada. What does that mean, actually, to globalize it?

Does that mean we now want to do what is happening to Israel? All over the world?

Has the Palestinian plight become our plight you now, as Americans?

That there has to be an intifada here!

Because it's the kind of the same. You know. It's kind of the same over, you know, with what the Palestinians are going through.

Well, it's very much like what the Jews went through with the Nazis.

That's a weird one. That one makes my head hurt. It's very much the same as that. And very much the same as the fight against Donald Trump.

Oh, this is going to be fun. It's fun!

Really fun. You know, the irony here is, the ones that will scream Islamophobia the most, are the ones in the progressive left, the champions of feminism, LGBTQ rights. And secularism.

They're going to -- no. You want -- they're going to stand with the people, who want to kill them first.

See, this is how smart they are!

This is why it's going to work out well, in New York City.

Let me just say. If you have an ounce of common sense, you run a business, you have an ounce of wealth. And I don't mean wealth like, you know, hey, Lovey.

Let's get on the boat for a three-hour tour with a suitcase full of cash. I mean you saved anything, anything, get the hell out of New York City.

I mean, this is about survival. This is about free speech. This is about women's rights.
Religious pluralism. Secular legal systems. Liberal democracy.

But it's also about failed principles of Communism. Okay?

First, you have to call out political Islam for what it is. Okay?

And we have to do it with the clarity that we call out white nationalism.

Got to do it with that. Got to -- you know, the Klan. Really bad people.

Really bad people.

Anybody who is shouting for globalized intifada?

Pretty bad. Pretty bad people.

Okay?

Now, let's get to communism.

Because that's another cool, cool angle of the new Democratic candidate for -- for mayor of New York City.

That I just -- I think is cuddly and cute. Sure, it led to 100 million deaths. But this time, New York is going to be radically different. Oh, did I use the word radical?

I didn't mean to use that. What's radical about this guy?

Nothing. He's just like you!

Well, not exactly.

But let's talk about communism, next!

Now, the new mayoral candidate that's running there in New York City. That so many young people rushed to defend and vote for. He's promising free buses.

That's going to work out.

Where are you going to get the money for free buses.

It's free!

City-run grocery stores.

Oh, rent freezes. And finally somebody has done it. A 30-dollar minimum wage.

So under the banner of equity. And, you know, we will tax the wealthy. And the corporations. You know, we're going to squeeze another $10 billion out of them.

Really?

Because they're going to call a U-Haul.

You know, they will call something like U-Haul. There will be a lot of -- there will be a lot of movers that are like, how do I get the truck back from Texas or Florida back up to New York? Nobody is moving up there.

But he's going to do it.

Now, his vision isn't really new. You know, just -- just tax people, so we could have city-run grocery stores. You know, I remember -- I'm old enough to remember those city-run grocery stores in Moscow.

They were great.

The shelves were empty.

But that's just Moscow.

It worked out completely different in Venezuela.

Where, oh, no.

It didn't. That's right. The grocery store.

They were eating the zoo animals.

But it will be different in New York.

Because they have rent controls too.

And that will just choke the housing supply, but don't worry. As a young family.

You know, you voted for it.

You know better.

It will work this time.

So, you know, I like building ideas, I just don't like usually building on the graves of 100 million people.

But, you know, why not? Why not?

You know, use this dogma.

And this time, it will be different. It's not like it was in China. Where the great leap forward, was a gross -- a gross parody of progress. Venezuela, which was oil rich. One of the richest nations in the hemisphere now sees 90 percent of its population in poverty!

Yeah. Darn it. You know what they did?

They decided to take state control of things.

You know, like grocery stores. And it worked out well. How is that free busing working out in Venezuela?

I just want to -- I just want to know.

Anyway, then you've got the globalize the intifada. Which is going to drop a little violence in, and anti-Semitism in with your communism.

Which is weird!

Because violence and anti-Semitism, always happen. When it -- when it comes to -- when it comes to communism.

This is weird!

I've got to play something for you. Because this has talked about on me earlier this morning.

Oh, wow.

Wait a minute. This is -- this is the whole coalition coming together here.

So this is going to be good. New York, this is going to be great.

It's going to be great for you.

No. He's going to uplift you. Then the social fabric of New York City is just going to be -- just one.

It's going to be fantastic. Don't worry about your 120 billion dollars in debt. Or your 10 billion-dollar deficit that you have right now.

You are going to charge the rich more taxes, and they will stay right there.

They will be like, you know what, that 46 percent in taxes that I'm paying, this is just not enough. It's just not enough.

I need to pay 60 or 70 percent to be able to pay my fair share. So that's good. That's good. That's good.

You know, they're not risking 100 million people. It's just 8 million people.

This time, it's just 8 million people.

But, hey. For those of you in upstate New York. That aren't going to be part of this experiment.

Don't worry, you get to pay for it. Because they'll kick it up to the state. The state will have to subsidize everything. And don't you love it?

Really, don't you want to subsidize the really crazy ideas of New York City?

I mean, why don't you have a -- why don't you have a democratic socialist. A/k/a communist mayor.

Why haven't you done that? Are you not progressive enough? Are you not looking into the future?

Are you stuck in the past?

I don't know. I don't know. The graveyard is pretty big. I have a hard time getting past that one. You know, yeah, so I'm stuck in the past. Because I can't seem to pass that graveyard, and get to be down the path with you. But it's going to be a paradise.

Forget arithmetic. You know, or human nature. This time, it's going to work. It's going to work. So all right!

Wish I lived in this morning.

No wait. Nope. I don't. Nope, I don't.

And Ted Cruz, stop it. Stop writing, hey, come to Texas. No. No. Don't come to Texas. Don't come to Florida. Go to California. It's beautiful this time of year. Go there. Go there.