A Tennessee district that voted for Trump by 22 points is suddenly a 2-point race, and the warning signs for Republicans couldn’t be clearer. With a strong GOP candidate, a weak progressive Democrat, and a deep-red electorate, this race should be a blowout. Instead, low turnout and December timing have turned a safe seat into a dangerous toss-up. What happens here could preview 2026 and whether the GOP is ready, or already slipping.
Transcript
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: Well, it's an interesting day in Tennessee.
There is an election going on today in Tennessee.
And it's kind of an important one. Because this is a -- this is a district that, you know, went to Trump by 22 points.
And the Democrats are not spending as much money as the Republicans are, which kind of tells you go. We better not lose this one.
Stu. Welcome.
STU: Yeah. It's an interesting one, Glenn. Seventh congressional district in Tennessee. And it is a race, as you point out, that should be very, very friendly to Republicans.
This should not be what they have to worry about. As you noted, a 22-point margin for Donald Trump, in 2024. And this race is going on because of a representative who stepped down and took a job with the private sector.
And so right off the bat, you know, the important part of right now, is the fact that the Republicans have a very small majority in the House. They came in with a small majority. So losing any representatives is a big deal. They've had to deal with a few months of this going on and on. They have to defend this seat.
The two in the race, Matt Van Epps is the Republican.
He is -- you know, you never know in one of these cases. When you have a bright red district, sometimes you get a candidate that is not very good.
Sometimes you get a candidate, you know, where you kind of get a crazy person who wins the primary. Does not seem to be the case here at all.
Matt Van Epps is a West Point graduated, a decorated helicopter pilot. He is seemingly a fiscal conservative, does not seem to be some crazy person with lots of wild tweets or anything like that. He seems to be a --
GLENN: Hasn't been on an island, Epstein or otherwise.
STU: I don't think so. Has avoided all pedophile islands, which is great. Really want -- even peninsulas. He doesn't even go anywhere that has the word pedophile on it. He's stayed away from it, which is fantastic.
GLENN: Yeah, that's great. That's great.
STU: That would be the type of risk that you might have, in a situation like this.
Where you have a fringy type candidate.
He does not seem to be that.
Also, when you look at the Republican side of the aisle, sometimes you get a candidate who is like super Trumpy. And maybe the old school conservatives aren't on board with it. Or you get an anti-Trump Republican that runs, and Trump won't stores endorsed.
It doesn't seem that either of those have happened. This is a guy that the club for growth seems to like.
And Trump has endorsed and rallied for.
So you have --
GLENN: Okay.
STU: They didn't blow this. Like, they didn't go in this with like, okay.
We're super confident. Seems to have handled this relatively competently. The other thing. And you kind of noted a little bit of this. Which is interesting. Is they saw this coming.
They were worried about this from the beginning. And decided to actually spend money on this race. Which sometimes, again, can be a problem.
Sometimes, they're like, we have this 22 points, we don't need to do anything.
Democrat comes in. Spends tons of money, and the Republican loses somehow. That didn't happen here. Republicans have spent I think over $3 million. The Democrats spend about two.
Again, they have both been spending.
This is an important race. The Republicans actually spent some cash in this race.
GLENN: Because if the Democrat wins, it's a one point majority?
STU: One, two. There's a bunch of seats in flux. It's very close, to put it that way. You can't lose seats right now. To the extent, the House majority, it's not completely out of the question, they could lose this before 2026.
GLENN: Oh, my gosh.
STU: With a couple of weird moments happening with -- again, most of these congressmen are over 96 years old, so you never what's going to happen. Retirements. A lot of these people in purple districts are looking at 2026 and are saying, I'm not going to win. So maybe I just bail now, and take a private sector job.
I don't think they will lose the majority because of that. But it is an outlier possibility in this case.
So you look at this race, and the other part about this is, do the Democrats poll a candidate who is great?
Every once in a while, you get a candidate, you know, a military member on the Democratic side who is a smooth talker and can talk to the average person.
Even though, they're a Democrat. And they don't sound like a lunatic.
GLENN: Tulsi Gabbard, that the Democrats would actually like.
STU: Right. Someone they didn't eject out of the party immediately, when they started making sense.
GLENN: Right. There's fewer and fewer of them. But they might still exist somewhere.
I'm not entirely unsure that unicorns don't exist. So it might have.
STU: Did they pull a unicorn. The answer to that does seem to be a flat no.
What they pulled was Aftyn Behn, which this is a candidate running who is seemingly more on, like, the kind of AOC side of the Democratic Party. Not someone who is going to relate to the average person.
Now, she's had a couple of moments, that have made some news as this race has gone on. And she -- this is -- let me give you cut three, first.
This is 2020, a podcast clip of one of her podcast clips of her, that has been resurfaced during this campaign, talking about the area she actually would be representing.
VOICE: Because I hate this city. I hate the bachlorettes. I hate the pedal taverns. I hate country music. I hate all of the things that make Nashville.
STU: So, again, suboptimal, Glenn. You would prefer --
GLENN: That's really kind of a hard thing. It's kind of like saying, I want to represent the part -- or the district, you know, of Orlando, where Walt Disney World is, but I hate Disney.
STU: I hate Disney. I hate talking mice. I don't like dogs without pants on. It's like, generally speaking --
GLENN: Right. I can understand. I don't like Vegas, but Vegas likes Vegas. You know, the states like Vegas. It's really an important thing. I mean, if you happen to have a store or, you know, country music and the stores and the -- you know, the honky-tonks and all that stuff, that's what makes Nashville a destination.
STU: Right. That's the thing.
GLENN: If you want to get rid of that, you're going to not do good things for the economy, just saying.
STU: I mean, Glenn, you and I both know people who live and work in Nashville. They're -- it's not an uncommon sentiment for people to be frustrated about the bachelorette parties and the pedal taverns and the things that go on downtown. It's wild. It's Nash-Vegas, right? It is wild. And it can be that way.
GLENN: Yes. Yes. Yes.
STU: And if you're a resident, there is some of that, that is somewhat common to the area. Though, saying that you hate the city when you're trying to represent the city. Is not necessarily optimal. I would say suboptimal. And I would say it's the economy. Right? It is -- if you hate that, if you're fighting against it, you're fighting against thousands and thousands of jobs, you're fighting against millions of dollars that are coming in.
That's not a great look. Even if you believe it, it's of type of thing that a consultant would correctly advise you to not say when you're running for office.
GLENN: In today's world, that might be the exact right thing to say, the things that consultants say, "Don't ever say that."
STU: Yeah, I think in this case, I would shy away from the city.
GLENN: I would too. I would too.
STU: You know, the other part of this is, we saw much, much worse out of Zohran Mamdani, and he won.
GLENN: Uh-huh.
STU: But he won a Democrat plus-20 city. This is a Republican plus 20 type of district. So probably not the approach you want to take. There is another one that is going on. You know, again, she's trying -- she's very much a progressive. But, of course, trying to message herself, as someone who can work across party lines. That's what you need to do as a Democrat to win in a Republican plus 20 district. That just means Republicans will win by 20 points, typically, on a typical cycle. Here is a 2023 political forum with that debate, talking about her ability to work across the aisle.
VOICE: You cannot work with these people. Working across the aisle has rarely been effective in the last ten years. Okay.
So what we need to do, one, we need to continue organizing external pressures in the Republican super majority, which is exactly what happened in April, when students and teachers came together and forced their frustration, and force Governor Lee to call a special session.
STU: So, again --
GLENN: Okay.
STU: -- suboptimal, probably if you're trying to present yourself that way, which is what she's tried to do.
She's tried to present herself -- her messaging and ads is like affordability. And can you believe these Republicans won't release the Epstein files?
It's like, your party had control of everything for four years, and didn't do this.
You are aware of that, right?
GLENN: And you noticed, as soon as they were released, how the Democrats just went completely silent.
STU: Right.
GLENN: Like Epstein files, no. There's nothing there. What are you talking about? So stupid.
STU: In polls, though, people want the Epstein files out. And that kind of goes across party lines. All of this basically set up to say, the Republicans didn't seem to blow this, with any of their decisions.
The Democrats didn't pick some generational talent to come into this race. And this is a race where you would say, normal times, maybe the Republicans win by 20 points.
The polling has not shown that. And nobody expects the Republicans to win this race by 20 points. That's kind of the bad news. A lot of the polling leading -- and it's -- it's a special election. To give you a quick outlier on that. Quick explaining on that. These races are weird. It's December. It's not an Election Day.
No one knows what the turnout is going to look like. It's a very strange, off-year, special election, anything can happen in these. And there's not a lot of polling to tell us what will happen.
GLENN: Yeah. And the really bad thing about this is, you know, you live in a place like this.
It will happen. And you're just so busy with everything else. You just don't even realize, oh, that was yesterday.
I was going to vote! You know what I mean?
STU: We talked about this. We talked about this yesterday in the meeting before the show. And we said, oh, that Tennessee election is going on. Oh, jeez. That's the one with the crazy lady.
It's out of our mind. We just came off of Thanksgiving weekend. I have no idea what the turnout will be on this.
And that is a real concern --
GLENN: Right. And the ones that win are the ones that can turn their base out. And if you have a democratic socialist. If you have somebody who can take these guys and hold them back, you're going to get your people out.
They will be motivated. Because they'll know, it won't take a lot of us to throw this election.
Just hoping that the tell me can -- or, the Republicans in -- in Nashville understand what they're up against today.
STU: It's a great point. If you're a democratic socialist, and you live in this district, there's no way you're not showing up.
You're going to be there. The question are the Republicans, the typical people who will win this race, going to be there?
GLENN: My guess is no. My guess is no.
Yeah. Twenty-two points, you're like, that will be fine.
STU: Every -- every indicator that we have, and I will say, there's not a lot of those indicators. Because it's lightly polled. And it's a weird time.
Every indicator that we have shows that some of those people that would typically come out and vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election, or a senator in Tennessee, are not going to show up for this election, like every indicator we have.
The polling leading up in a couple -- the couple months leading up to this showed typically Van Epps, the Republican, with a high single digits lead. So not a 22-point lead, which you would expect. More like eight or nine. That's still a victory. And it won't change the balance of the House and everything else.
GLENN: If they show up.
STU: If they show up.
Here's the bigger worry. And this is where you get really scared.
The last poll, the only one that we have that is very recent in the last few days, came out from Emerson. And Emerson is a pretty good pollster.
Did well on Trump.
They had this race as a two-point race.
Two!
GLENN: Jeez.
STU: The Republicans still winning.
But a two-point race. If you happen to be in this district, if you know somebody who is in this district, if you have someone who you know who is like, I think I will vote Republican. But we will win anyway. I wouldn't worry about it. Might be worth a phone call today.
Because if that poll is right, and I don't know that it is.
But if it's that close, this is a massively dangerous thing. To be clear, to say this in advance. So I can't take it back later. Would be completely catastrophic if they lost this race.
It's a special election. So there's asterisks around it.
The idea of what this points to in 2026.





