RADIOMarch 17, 2022

What the Fed’s interest rate hike MEANS FOR YOU

In an effort to curb rising inflation, The Federal Reserve just announced an interest rate hike of 25 basis points (one-quarter of one percent). It’s the first time the Fed has raised such rates since 2018. So, what exactly does this mean and how could it affect YOU? Carol Roth, financial expert and author of ‘The War On Small Business,’ joins Glenn to break it all down…

You can read more of Carol's take on this issue here: https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/roth-what-the-feder...

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Hello, America.

Yesterday, the fed raised the -- the interest rates.

And they said, they're going to do it, I think six or seven times more this year. This could get dicey in many ways, for everyone.

And I want you to understand, what happened yesterday. And not in terms of, well, you know, us traders believe. I don't care. I don't watch CNBC. Because I only understand about half of it.

I want to know what this means to the average person. Carol Roth joins us. The author of the war on small business. She gets it. And can explain what it all means. In 60 seconds.

Carol, welcome to the -- welcome to the Glenn Beck Program.

CAROL: Hey, Glenn. Lots of things to talk about.

GLENN: Yeah. Boy, I have a long list for you too. So let's start with what happened yesterday, and why people should care.

CAROL: So I want to take a step back, and talk about, you know, why the fed did what it did. In terms of raising interest rates. What we call 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percent.

100 basis points is 1 percent.

GLENN: Okay.

CAROL: And basically, they were undoing the -- at least attempting to start to undo the effects of what they in part cost.

Their monetary policy, zero interest rate policy, printing trillions of dollars, the government spending trillions of dollars, in terms of fiscal stimulus. Turning parts of the economy off, and wrecking these labor markets supply chain.

All of those things are the reasons we have inflation today, exacerbated by decisions that the Biden administration made around oil and gas, dependents and what not.

So basically, we had inflation.

GLENN: Correct.

CAROL: Which we've all been talking about. As we go to the grocery store, and certainly the fuel pumps and whatnot.

And so finally, they said, we have to do something. Now, I'm going to tell you, this is a little bit of window dressing. Because they were doing accommodation. They were in the market, purchasing securities, last week.

So last week, they were being accommodative.

But this week, we have to maintain our credibility, and we need to do something. So they decided to raise what is called the fed funds rate. It's a rate, where banks lend to each other overnight. In terms of their reserves.

And that reverberates through the market. So they brought that down to a target, of zero to a quarter of a percent. And they had held it there for the last couple of years. And they said, okay. Well, you know, inflation is getting away, we better raise some interest rates. One of our tools in order to do that. And they took the huge step of a whole quarter of a point increase, to do it.

GLENN: Wow.

CAROL: Yeah. They're very -- because they need to be credible.

GLENN: Right. So the last time we had a problem of this size, it took an interest rate of about 19 to 20 percent, if I'm not mistaken.

Raising it a quarter is really -- is a joke.

Where do you think, these interest rates should be?

Not -- not considering killing the economy.

Just where it should be. Should it -- if we were in a healthy country, still, would it be 20 percent, or more?

CAROL: So there's a couple of things to unpack there.

First of all, this is an unprecedented situation. We don't have a benchmark, because we have never had central banks, not just in the U.S. but around the world, printing trillions upon trillions of dollars. This has just never happened before. We've never had governments turn off the economy.

You never have a situation, where there's 1.7 jobs available, for every job seeker, because of what the government did.

So we're flying a little bit blind. I've always been a fan of normalized interest rates. I think it's a horrible idea, to have the fed meddling, and trying to direct things.

I want the market to set it. And so before all of this nonsense started, before the financial crisis, the great recession, financial crisis in '07 and '08, which was really the first time we went totally off the rails, with the zero interest rate policy and the purchase of securities, the interest rates were around 5-plus percent. And that seems to be, you know, a healthy place, where things should be.

We should not be in a place, where we're saying, you know, when you take risks, you shouldn't be getting rewarded for it. You know, 0 percent interest.

It makes no sense. So in reality, you're still at very historically low interest rates. And in a healthy economy, to have three, four, 5 percent, would be completely acceptable. We just have been so addicted to this easy money and this free money for so long, I'm not sure how we get out of this.

GLENN: Okay. So there's a couple of problems with 5 percent interest rates, right now. One would be that people would not be able to afford a new house, et cetera, et cetera. Because of inflation, and everything else.

But the other, that nobody ever talks about, is that we now have a national debt over $30 trillion. And that is just like buying a house. You have an interest rate, on that.

If we have an interest rate of 5 percent, how much more money do we have to pay?

CAROL: Bingo, this is the dilemma that the fed has gotten themselves into, by keeping down interest rates. They've basically given the government a free pass to just spend and spend. And to rack up more and more debt.

And we're at a point, to where the debt is completely out of control.

And, you know, has competed our level of GDP.

So if you think about 30 trillion of debt. And obviously, the fed fund rates. And the interest rate on the debt is not a 1:1 correlation. But we know that as one moves up, the other moves up. So in terms of the interest on our national debt, I want everyone to pay very close attention because this is staggering. For every 1 percent increase, that is another $300 billion, that we have to pay in interest, on the national debt.

That is our tax dollars, that are going to pay more, for things, that we have already purchased.

It is not new purchases. It's literally, a finance charge.

Almost like a credit card interest rate, on stuff we have already bought.

And this is the dilemma, the fed has. Because they know, as they raise interest rates, this is going to get out of control. The CDO. Had made a projection, than saying, this is going to get out of control. But in their projection, they said, well, we think the yield on the ten-year treasury note, gets to about 2.1 percent in 2025.

So, you know, we're going to have to really be concerned, maybe in 2029, the yield on the ten-year Treasury note is at that 2.1 percent today. So multiple years ahead of time.

GLENN: Please talk down to me like I'm in kindergarten.

I don't understand the yield thing with the Treasury. How that works. How that's affected. So can you explain that?

VIVEK: Yeah. It's basically how much the government has to pay on debt.

So what the market demands

And obviously, if there's a lot of demand, for Treasury securities. The price of that goes up.

Then the yield, or the interest that you demand is lower.

Because there's a lot of demand. You have to pay a lot for your debts.

GLENN: But we had been at very, very, very low --

CAROL: Very low.

GLENN: Because the fed was buying up. There was no demand for our treasuries, which is our loan.

CAROL: So let me put it in context, what we're paying currently on our national debt, in terms of a combined interest rate, is somewhere in the neighborhood of projections of 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent. So they've been able to finance that at a very low rate. But that number is starting to creep up. And with the fed increasing interest rates, it will further creep up. And every 1 percent is $300 billion.

GLENN: So if we have an interest rate of five or -- five or six percent, we're talking like between two and three trillion dollars more, the entire budget.

CAROL: Yeah. Exactly.

It's just completely untenable, at that point in time.

So I would -- I would imagine other things happened, in the interim. But this is why, when we talk about things like MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, or what I call Magic Money Tree.

That says, well, you can just print into infinity, because we can just print more. Well, we're now living through that realtime experiment. As you said, no, you can't. It causes inflation.

It has real costs for the average American, and it decreases the value of every dollar that you hold.

GLENN: All right. So the best thing you can do is get out of credit cards. You should cut those up if you can.

CAROL: Yes.

GLENN: And pay them off if you can. Get a refi right now. Because you're probably paying about 16 percent for your credit cards, correct?

CAROL: Yeah. And it could be going up.

And anything that has that adjustable interest rate associated with, some people may have something called an arm and an adjustable rate mortgage. Where it adjusts over time. Maybe it's fixed for a certain number of years. Anything that is adjustable rate debt, is going to increase in price. And if you need financing -- let's say you have a business, and you haven't taken advantage of low rates yet. You're going to want to lock that in on a fixed basis now, because it's not going to get cheaper any time soon.

GLENN: Now, the other problem is, with raising interest rates. Let's say you have a business. And you need a loan.

If the interest rates starts to go up, that kills that business. They can't afford that loan. Just like we can't afford our national debt. Or you want to buy a house. Yesterday, mortgages. New mortgages fell immediately, just on the -- on the whisper, that it was coming.

We are seeing a slowdown in mortgages. Which means people will buy fewer houses. The scary thing about this, is you don't know where that switch is. You're just going to have to kind of guess. And it might shut everything down.

CAROL: That's the needle that the fed is trying to thread, in addition to dealing with the consequences of the national debt. What happens, is as they raise interest rates. You know, their intention is to slow down the economy. I mean, that's basically what it is. They want to slow down consumer demand.

GLENN: Right.

CAROL: But the question is: How do you do that, without creating a recession, or without creating reverberations for the economics of the average American?

GLENN: So can I be really, really cynical? I mean -- in fact, let me go beyond cynical. Let me go into, I'm a thriller writer. Okay? And I'm writing a thriller. And for some reason, this country needs to slow down the economy. But they can't slow down the economy, because then businesses will fail. But they don't really care about the average person. You know what I mean?

That's going to fail. We'll print more money. Put them on welfare. Tell they believe to stay home. Or whatever.

Wouldn't one way to slow the economy, for the consumer, but not slow the economy, for the big corporations, would a war do that?

CAROL: I think that would completely change the tenor of the economy. But I think that raising the interest rates does that, because kind of like we saw over the last couple of years, if you are a big corporation. You take advantage of that debt. You have that war chest. We've had that strong balance sheet. So in terms of the transfer of wealth, that is one way to do that. But the war, that would completely change the tenor of, you know, who benefits. And certainly, it would be the bigger guys versus the smaller guys. But it would be more defense, rather than the financial services industry, for example.

GLENN: Yeah. Okay. Carol, hang on. I have some more questions. And I would like you to explain a couple of other things, coming up in just a second. Give me 60 seconds. We're back with Carol Roth. The name of her book, is The War on Small Business. A must-read.

GLENN: All right. So I want to talk to you about the dollar being the world's reserve currency.

Because I'm watching these sanctions, that are being put on.

And I'm seeing things happen, to where, if I'm another country, especially Russia. I'm going to China, immediately, saying, I want to partner with you. Because they just made my money worthless. I can't get my money out of the central bank. The Federal Reserve. That's my money.

And they won't let me get to my money. If that starts to happen. And then Saudi Arabia starts to sell oil, off of the petrodollar, that's really bad news. And let's say, the West holds together. But half the world is off the petrodollar.

What does that mean for us, Carol?

CAROL: It potentially means the end of the U.S. dollar, as a reserve currency.

GLENN: Explain what that means. Because -- I mean, to the average person. Forget about, you know, the central banks and everything else. What does it mean to the average person? To have half the world get off our dollar?

CAROL: Yes. So this is why I love you, Glenn. Because we take the most complicated concepts in the world.

GLENN: I know.

CAROL: And trying to explain them, as if, you know, it's Elmo and Big Bird here --

GLENN: Right.

CAROL: The idea of being the reserve currency. Is something that's -- you know, has sort of a long history. And it means, particularly in the case of goods and services. But also in the case of oil, that everyone in the world, pretty much agreed to use dollars, for a settlement. And that puts some responsibility on the United States. There's something that is called the Triffin dilemma. And there was an economist back in the 1960s, who basically said, there's a conflict. If you are going to be the world reserve currency, you're going to have to make tough choices. And you're not always going to be able to do what's right, at home, in order to make sure you're doing what's right, in the national sphere.

GLENN: Everywhere. Yeah.

CAROL: And unfortunately, you know, this has been an issue, that's been going on for a long time.

But in recent times. As we've been talking about with the fed and the decisions they've made. They actually haven't done right by either party.

They've been screwing over the average American, with their policy. And transferring wealth. But they've been doing the same thing in the national sphere.

And, frankly, a lot of countries are getting sick of it.

And so there have been predictions for quite some time, that there was going to be an event -- an adviser actually to the OECD said that it's probably not an economic event. It's a geopolitical event, that's going to expose the system. You know, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. And so a lot of folks feel like the sanctions that were made against Russia, were potentially a cover story. That we know that we'll potentially lose this reserve currency status. So we're going to say, well, we did it, because we had to take a stand.

But the reality is, you know, as we've now shown the world, you can put your money, in our central bank. And you can buy Treasuries. And U.S. dollars.

But you might not be able to access them. Which is not a really good thing, if you're going to be the world's reserve currencies.

GLENN: Correct. Correct.

CAROL: So there's a couple of potential outcomes. And I know you've been talking about this, Glenn. But, you know, one thing that folks have been talking about.

Is does China potentially step into the reserve currency position?

There is an issue around them. Because usually, if you have the reserve currency, you run a trade deficit. And we know that China is a nation of exporters. Are they really going to step into that? I'm not sure.

The other thought is, listen, we've seen so many banks. Central banks around the world. Print so much money. There's all this debt. You can't really just say, we're going to cancel it all. Because there's counterparties. There are people on the other side of the debt. So what could you do to offset that?

GLENN: Hold on. Hold on. Elmo and Big Bird has to stop. Because Elmo says, there's only 20 more seconds left.

CAROL: Okay.

GLENN: So we will come back. Because I really want to hear this -- this other new plan, and canceling debt just opens up Pandora's box, at least in my head. We'll talk about that, coming up more. Carol Roth, coming up in in just a second. Stand by. That's right. Did you get the vaccines yet?

GLENN: We're with Carol Roth. She's the author of the -- of the book, The War on Small Business.

She's a former investment banker. Don't hold that against her. She calls herself a recovering investment banker. She worked on Wall Street for years and years. Then kind of went, oh, I might be on the wrong side here.

And is trying to do everything she can, to strengthen individual businesses. Small businesses all across the country. And I love her for it.

Carol, you were just saying, that one of the options, in this nightmare scenario, which I think is unfolding in front of us. Where the world reserve currency, is not going to be the dollar.

I don't know what it is. But they're going to change the dollar, from what it is. To a digital dollar.

And I don't know how it all shakes out. But probably not very well.

But you brought up, there is all this debt within that we just can't cancel, because there's other people on the other side of that debt. So explain what you think.

That can't happen, you say.

CAROL: Well, I mean, nothing is a never scenario. Right?

GLENN: Not anymore.

CAROL: In an unprecedented situation. And, you know, for people who are students of history, despite all of the wreckage that could come from this, it's a very interest pointing in time. Especially, financially, you had the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. You had then us going off the gold standard. Then you had us, you know -- with the petrodollar, basically saying, we will manage the dollar as good as gold for oil.

And then you had the fed, basically go completely rogue. And not do that.

And anybody who is holding reserves, that they're supposed to say, well, the U.S. dollar is safe. And it's a good store of value. We'll keep devaluing it. That's not a thing.

And so -- and, by the way, these are not my theories. I'm just communicating what is out there, from people who are far smarter than I -- everybody by writing up another asset. So is there a neutral asset, that central banks have access to, that's on their balance sheet, that maybe they have been buying, at really good prices, that all of a sudden everybody comes together, and says, well, we'll just write up the value of that?

It's like writing down the -- gold.

GLENN: Gold.

CAROL: So central banks have been buying tons of physical gold. By the way, billionaires have been buying a lot of physical gold as well. And I'm using the term physical, because it's different than the market that is traded.

GLENN: ETFs. Those are ridiculous.

CAROL: ETFs. That's done in dollars. So who is backing that?

But physical gold. So there is a theory going around, that potentially that standalone basis or a basket of neutral metals. Which was thrown out as an idea, early on. When it was pushed aside for the U.S. dollar. That maybe there is this -- meeting of the minds.

And, you know, this is the way that you make all of these other central banks. And countries full. Is you just write up the value of that gold.

So if you think that that's going to happen. And you think that the financial system is going to collapse, you know, then you want to be owning physical metals. And have a store of that.

GLENN: Because when you say, they're going to write off debt, you don't mean people's houses. You mean --

CAROL: No. This is government debt. They cannot write up government debt. Because when you take -- that's a loan, right? You owe the money back to somebody. So the other side of potentially doing some sort of. We'll have mass forgiveness.

Is that when you take something else that everybody else has. And you say, it's more valuable. Overnight. It's magic.

GLENN: That doesn't sound like --

STU: Bad magic trick.

GLENN: Yeah. It sounds like -- we're dealing with a lot of black magic.

Stu and I were talking about this story that came out of Britain. We hadn't heard anyone talk about this. Explain what happened.

STU: Yeah. Just a little background. It's in the London metal exchange.

And it's the price of nickel. Now, I know no one cares about the price of nickel. Just to give you the basis here.

GLENN: Tesla does.

STU: Yeah. That's true. If you're buying an electrical car, it's true. Basically, the last five years has bounced back and forth between 10,000 and 20,000 per metric ton. Okay?

It got up to a little bit above 20,000, in the last few weeks. Obviously, all this time going on with Russia. Russia, Ukraine. Big sources where it comes from, for all these electric batteries. It goes basically from 20,000 to 80,000, in basically a day.

Okay? So four times, in one day. So let me read this: This is from the Wall Street Journal.

GLENN: Listen to this. Have you read this, Carol?

CAROL: Oh, I know this story. I do know this story. So we can talk about this.

GLENN: Yeah, this is crazy. Listen to this, America. This is craziness.

STU: Yeah.

So traders on the London Metal Exchange smelled blood, and nickel prices almost doubled in a short period of time. A Chinese company faced a 1 billion-dollar margin call. That exchange officials felt they couldn't meet. Rather than let it fail, which would have probably taken down several of the smaller brokers that serviced them. The London metals exchange decided to cancel all of the day's trading. More than 9,000 trades, worth about $4 billion.

It canceled the trades. Not because of a fat finger error. Which exchanges often cancel. Not because of a rogue algorithm, as regulators claimed in the 2010 flash crash in U.S. stocks, but because someone with too much leverage was going to blow up, with effects on some members of the exchange.

This moral hazard is taken to an extreme. It's always been true, that if you face a 100-dollar margin call, it's your problem. While if you have a one billion dollar margin call, it's the broker's problem. And the authorities might save them. What is almost unprecedented here. Is the exchange authorities decided to save them, with money taken from other traders, who otherwise would be sitting on fat profits.

I mean, you won. You picked the right direction. You've got these huge profits. And they cancel your trade, to save someone else.

GLENN: And it's China.

STU: And it's China.

GLENN: I mean, there is no such thing as a free market with this.

CAROL: No. This is another too big to fail scenario. It happened to be -- I believe it was an individual billionaire, who had made a short set against nickel. So he went in the other direction.

GLENN: Wow. I mean, then you don't -- you don't put the money down on the table. If you don't know what the odds are, and you're not willing to lose your money.

That's like going to Vegas, and -- and placing a huge bet, and when you lose it, you're like, hey.

You know, Caesars. I mean, this is crazy. And Caesars says, oh, we're not going to count that bet.

That doesn't happen!

CAROL: It's horrendous. And it goes back to the integrity of the market. And so many that the retail investors have been rallying against. And it's just another example. And there are big name banks involved. The exchange was actually shut down for multiple days, I believe. Before it started trading again.

And the people who made a bet, and decided to participate in the market, ended up getting screwed out of their profits. But they're never going to get the leniency, if it happens to them on the other side.

GLENN: No.

CAROL: And just the overall integrity, like you said. This is not a free market. It's not a fair market.

And we have too many of these big guys, who are being saved, at the expense, sometimes literally, sometimes figuratively, of the small guys, over and over and over again.

GLENN: And that's what I think people are so sick of.

And when they see this next crash. Especially with Janet Yellen saying, it will be equitable. When we reassemble, it will be equitable. What the hell does that mean? Probably stuff like this. And when they see the rich getting richer. And I don't mean a person who runs a business and may have a million dollars.

I mean the rich.

The elite of the elite. The BlackRocks of the world.

The banks of the world.

I just -- when their debt is being bailed out and real Americans are paying huge money for their food and their gas. And then their home is taken, there's trouble. That's real trouble.

CAROL: Yeah. And unfortunately, that is the scenario. There's one thing to become wealthy, because you earned it in a fair playing field. That's something that we want to celebrate. But we do not want to celebrate, when the playing field is tilted. When somebody has their thumb on the scale. When we have this transfer of wealth from Main Street to Wall Street. Which has been going on for, you know -- in a very large part, for a decade and a half. But it has accelerated over the last year and a half. And, you know, we talk about all of this coming to fruition. And us losing reserve currency status. It's going to mean a slower economy for us. Because we are not in a position. We don't have the strong manufacturing face. Or a competitive pricing. To be able to export. So all these people are like, oh, that's great. We'll reshore the job. They're not thinking in context of the existing economic structure. It will be unfortunately, very painful. But just to have a moment of hope here, Glenn. Because this is really doom and gloom. Is you have to remember, in any time of pain, there's always opportunities. So it is incumbent upon you, to find where those opportunities are. And what --

GLENN: So average person is saying, what is that opportunity?

CAROL: Yeah. It's finding the things that have inelastic demand. Meaning, people will pay prices even when they're continuing to increase and making investments and those kinds of things. Or retooling your business. To be servicing those markets. It's those kinds of shifts, where you have to look for those hidden opportunities.

In what could be a completely new economic scenario for us, going forward.

GLENN: I -- I think what you just said, translates to what I just told my kids.

You get into the job market. You have to be the most effective, efficient, and hard-working employee. Even if you're not at the top of the food chain, you have to be the one that the boss says, oh, we can't.

Because he'll do everything. I mean, he's a little bit. I mean, he works like crazy. You have to be that person. Right?

CAROL: Absolutely. Absolutely. Invest in yourself. And make yourself indispensable to a customer or to somebody that you're working for.

It's a huge competitive differentiation that will only get more important.
GLENN: I would love to have you on, maybe early next week. I just had one of my producers put some stats together on inflation.
And what that actually means to people. I mean, when Biden got in, a hamburger. An average hamburger was $4.40.

Today, that average burger is 601. And if we look at what they say, things are going to be, you know, with -- with the -- what are they saying? 7.9 percent inflation.

That number is going to be $7 force a burger by the time of the next election. I don't think that stat is right. You want to compare apples to apples. Look at how they measured it back in the 1970s and '80s, when we hit it before. That would mean that that hamburger would go from $4.40, to almost $8 by the time we hit a presidential election.

I just want to talk to you about inflation. And how to beat that.

CAROL: Plenty to talk about, would love to.

GLENN: Thank you very much, girl. Appreciate it. Carol Roth. The name of the book is War on Small Business. Make sure you pick it up.

THIS could COLLAPSE every major civilization at the SAME TIME

The United States, Europe, and China are all preparing for a coming global reset. Throughout history, civilizations have risen and fallen according to the same cycle of prosperity and debt. But never before has EVERY major civilization been on the verge of collapse at the same time. Glenn Beck breaks it all down.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Because for the very first time in world history. There's something new that has happened. The entire globe is riding the same wheel at the same time.

Okay? We're all in this debt cycle. And this has never happened before.

The cycle always begins the same way. The first step in this at the time cycle is discipline.

Discipline equals prosperity. Okay.

It goes right into prosperity. And every great empire starts with discipline. Rome did, you know, rebuilding after all the wars, strict budgets. Every great empire starts with discipline. Rome did. You know, rebuilding after all the wars. The strict budgets. Silver coinage. Land reforms. It helped restore, you know, the battered middle class. The Dutch Republic did the same thing: They invented modern finance, turning the swamp into the world's largest trade hub. Then the British empire did it after the glorious revolution. It brought fiscal stability and a gold-back pound, that the world trusted for over 200 years.

When that fell, America did it. After World War II, our debts were manageable, our currency was solid, backed by gold, productivity was unmatched, and we prospered. That is stage one. Discipline into prosperity. And prosperity if not darted, always leads to the second stage. Complacency into excess, okay? So excess creates this fatal illusion. The moment, you know, where we all look at each other, and go, this is great. It's going to be like this forever. It was always like this. It will always be like that.

Rome began borrowing heavily to pay for endless bread and circuses. France, funded the palaces and the pensions and the perpetual wars, through loans it could never repay.

Britain, in the late 19th century, took its global empire for granted, and levered -- levered itself into World War I.

Then came World War II. And then America beginning in the 1970s, untethered from -- untethered the dollar from gold. And discovered that debt could replace discipline.

So the second stage of the debt cycle is the age of entitlement, expansion. Imperial overreach.

Cheap credit.

And political bribery disguised as compassion.

Any of that sound like we've been there?

Done that?

The Dutch called it win handle. The trade in the wind.

Paper promises that replace real production.

We call it stimulus.

Easy money. Deficit spending.

Different words. Same exact sin.

That lees you to stage three. Financialization.

That goes to fragility. This is the most seductive stage. Rome debased its money until it was worth less than 2 percent of the original silver. The Byzantines watered down their unshakable dollar, if you will, and confidence collapsed. France printed their money, backed by land, until they were worth less and used as wallpaper.

Weimar, Germany, did the same thing. They destroyed a thousand years of savings in 18 months. Japan, 1990. Papered over its real estate collapse, with 30 years of zero interest rates.

And America, after 2008, discovered this intoxicating illusion, started by George W. Bush. I can violate the free market system, to save the free market system. That's quantitative easing. Money conjured up, without cost. Without any restraint. Without any consequence.

In stage three, nations convinced themselves, they're immune to any kind of gravity. Okay?

This time, it's different! We can manage this debt. Well, modern tools, you just don't understand. You know, the rules no longer apply.

You don't understand. Really?

Don't understand. The older rules always apply.

Because math is math.

And stage three always ends exactly the same way. Wherever it's tried!

The markets no longer trust the promises they're being fed, which leads us into stage four, the breaking point. Every empire eventually reaches a moment where its debts cannot be serviced. They can't be inflated away quietly. They can't be rolled over without consequence.

Rome reached it when they froze prices and shattered the last productive parts of its competent multiply France reached it in 1788, when it can no longer borrow. And that whole thing came to a head. Britain reached it in 1931 when it abandoned the gold standard.

Weimar reached it when inflation ate the soul of the nation. And extremism took over. Yap reached it, when its bond market effectively became nationalize. Propped up by its own central bank. Right now, America, Europe, China, Japan. And every other major power, listen to this carefully, have all hit stage four at the same time.

Never before in human history has this happened.

The bond markets are shaking. The currencies are all volatile. Politicians are praying that no one notices the numbers.

You know, that they no longer add up.

Stage four is not coming. We are now living inside the opening act. This is so important.

Yesterday, there was a story that said, that this is going to be the biggest Christmas season ever. And I'm wondering to myself, I see the prices. I go to McDonald's.

I go to the grocery store.

Any of us Walmart this weekend. I see the prices. And I'm looking at the prices.

And every time I'm looking at the prices, I'm like, how's the average person afford any of this?

And yet, we're spending. Spending. Spending.

And I don't understand it. And I fear we're doing what the government is doing. We're just spending because we can -- we think we can get out of it.

Then comes stage five. It's called the reset. Hmm.

Every debt system ends in one of three ways.

They inflate the money, so they can pay off the debt. And that's just an absolute wipeout. Weimar republic did it. France did it. Rome did it.

Just a wipeout. Then there's a hard default and political upheaval. Russia did that in 1917.

Argentina did it over and over again.

War leading to a new monetary order. That's another one.

And the neo -- the -- the Napoleonic wars. The British gold standard. World War II. Bretton Woods.

All of that. But there's always a reset. Always a new order that's born from the ashes of the old.

And here's what makes this moment unprecedented. Rome collapsed by itself. France collapsed alone. Weimar collapsed by itself.

Britain declined while America rose.

It was always one country coming down, and another one coming up.

This time, all countries. All countries, on both size, the free world and the not so free world, there's no one rising.

China is drowning in its local government debt. It's never going to say this, but it's a paper tiger.

Europe is fractured. And coming apart at the seams. Japan, demographic time bomb.

America is politically frozen and insolvent fiscally.

So for the very first time in world history. Every major civilization has reached its peak of the debt cycle.

This time, all at the same moment.

No one is coming up!

So what does that mean?

Well, for the very first time in human history, it means, when it arrives, it will not be regional. It will be global. It will not be slow. It will be systemic. It will be everywhere. Now, the hope, the history books don't tell, and nobody in the media will tell you this, is when every one of those resets, every collapse, every crisis, it created the conditions for renewal.

Rome, its fall opened the door for a new Christian civilization. France, the revolution there, birthed the modern nation state. Britain's decline cleared space for America's rise. The devastation of World War II led to the great expansion of prosperity, the greatest the world has ever seen. So the next chapter is not written. What happens to us is not written.

And it -- whether we rise or fall, from what's coming depends not on Washington. Not on Wall Street. But on us. In our homes, in our families. In our churches. And our communities.

The debt cycle is not prophecy. It is a warning.

You cannot borrow your way out of moral, fiscal, or spiritual bankruptcy.

Now, I don't feel like I chose this path. This -- with Bretton Woods and then 1972 coming off the gold standard. And what they did in 2008, to bail out all the banks. I didn't have anything to say. Did you have anything to say about that?

I didn't. I didn't. I wouldn't have chosen those things. But the world is putting something together.

And I want to show you what our choices are. Because right now, people say, you know, I don't like what Donald Trump is doing. Or, I don't like the World Economic Forum.

Or, I don't like what China. Okay. Great. But I want you to know, it's going to be one of these systems. Because it's being built.

It always happens. When one is coming down, some new system, usually a country.

But not a country this time. A new system begins to rise.

And it happens before the fall.

Sen. Mark Kelly's outrage over Franklin meme EXPOSED

Sen. Mark Kelly recently raged over War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s decision to post a meme portraying the children’s character Franklin the turtle blowing up Venezuelan drug boats. But Glenn Beck points out the insane hypocrisy of Sen. Kelly’s outrage…

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: First of all, the New York Times. The New York Times has refuted the WaPo reporting on the Hegseth story. Now, if you remember the Hegseth story from the Washington Post is -- was playing backup to people like Mark Kelly, who, you know, were part of that video where like, oh, you know. War crimes. And you will be tried for war crimes. And if you see a war crime. And an illegal border. You should disobey that.

Yeah. They're taught that. And everybody should know that. Again, the Pentagon teaches that to the sorrels. This has never been done by members of Congress. And they were going for something. I don't know what they were going for. But WaPo, of course, you know, sends the message to the rest of the world. That, well, it was our Secretary Hegseth. Who ordered the killing of some people that survived this launch on a boat. They survived. And then Pete called them up and said, kill them!

And that's what Mark Kelly was saying this last weekend. Okay. Washington Post. Now, the New York Times, not exactly a Trumpy kind of paper. Comes out and says, no. We actually have five sources on this.

That's not true. That's not what happened. White House responded yesterday, and they said, yeah. It was the commander that made that call. It was all within the law. Yada, yada.

So it wasn't Hegseth.

Oh. Then you have Mark Kelly coming on and saying, more things. This one is about the Franklin meme. You know, Franklin. The turtle. The kids book about the turtle.

Apparently, Hegseth retweeted or tweeted a picture of, you know, like Franklin magazine. And he's, you know, up on an American chopper. And he's firing down on, you know, drug runners and a boat.

And this causes Mark Kelly to say this.
MARK: -- global mission. And instead, he runs around, on a stage, like he's a 12-year-old playing Army. And it is ridiculous, it is embarrassing, and I -- I can't imagine what our allies think of looking at that guy, in this job, one of the most important jobs in our country. In my view, after the president of the United States, it is the next most important job. He is in the national command authority for nuclear weapons. And last night, he's putting out on the internet turtles with rocket-propelled grenades, killing -- I mean, have you seen this?

GLENN: Oh, it's outrageous. Let me ask you: Where were you on the leadership of the Pentagon when they pulled out of Afghanistan?

Were you saying, what are our allies thinking about that?

How about when, what's-his-face, decided to go get. What was it?

Surgery. Was out on surgery.

Didn't alert anyone that was -- what was his name, Lloyd Austin, right?

And he's out on surgery. And he didn't tell anybody.

Then he goes on vacation. Something happens.

Where are you?

He said, I'll come back, when I come back. Wait. Hold it. You want to talk about being in line with the nuclear weapons. Where was that one?

More importantly, Mr. Kelly, let me ask you: What do you think our allies thought about the health of our nation, when several democratic senators got together, and the for the first time in American history, pulled a Venezuela. And questioned the military and said, we will hold you responsible for any crimes against humanity. By the way, we're not telling you what those are. We'll judge, when we get back into power. And don't listen to the commander-in-chief. Let me ask you: If people -- if people in the Duma would have made that exact same video, and said, question the authority of Putin. And if he's telling you to go into Ukraine. That's going to be a war crime. And we're going to prosecute you.

And -- and don't listen to them. And don't listen to his secretary of war either. What do you think -- how would we analyze that?

Would we think that Putin was strong?

Would we think that their society is strong?

Would we think that they're a nation that can defend itself? Will defend itself?

Is willing to go to war?

Does that -- would we look at that and go, that's a strong nation, don't screw with them. Or if we had designs on that nation, would we say, you know what, up the pressure. Up the pressure.

Because this thing is about to fly apart. So, Mr. Kelly, let me ask you that.

Did you think about what our allies might have been saying, when you made the video and released it to the world?

Bueller.

Anybody? Anybody?

That -- that's the outrage here. The outrage is not that they said it. You can go to the Pentagon and say that. You can go and bring the Joint Chiefs of Staff in. And you can call them on the carpet and say, look, I've got to tell you something. We can investigate this, if we have control. But you bring that into a private room, and you say that to all your like-minded senators in a private room.

You don't make a video and release it to the world.

I'll never forget, George Bush called me into the Oval Office. And he was a little upset.

And I had said, you know, you want to impeach the guy, you can impeach him on this. Look what he's doing in the Middle East. Look what he's doing. I don't even remember what it was. That's the stuff that at least if it's true, is impeachable.
That day, I get a call. And Mr. Beck, the president would like to see you in the oval tomorrow.

I go in. And I knew this would be the longest hour of my life. And I sit down in the -- honest to God, it was in the -- the Zelinsky chair. Okay?

And I got -- I got from George Bush what Zelinsky got from Trump.

And he starts out, a lot of people think they know what it's like to be the President. You have no F-ing idea what it's like. And I was like, oh, my gosh. This is going to be very, very long and agonizing.

And we get about a half our into all of this stuff. And he's telling me what's actually going on, on the ground.

And he knows it all. And he's not hesitating. He's not like, and let me search for a word here.

None of that!

And I screw my courage to the sticking place, and say, excuse me. Mr. President, this is the President that America needs to see.

This is the guy. Why don't you say these things to the American public?

And he goes off on another tirade, and he tells me about how he's made deals with the Pentagon. He's made deals with the military. He's made deals -- he's also had all of the eyes. Listen to this. All of the eyes with all of the leaders of the world, including all of their intelligence officials.

And they watch everything that every major official says in the United States, especially the president. And whatever the President says, they analyze. He said, I shift my eyes at the wrong time, they think, well, that means he's not saying this. What he's actually saying is this.

He's like, I'm juggling so many things in my head, that I can't say or can't do, because of X, Y, or Z. And he said, that's the job of the president.

Now, whether you agree with that or not, it doesn't matter.

The reason why I tell you that story is, Mark Kelly, did you seen consider what Five Eyes might be saying about that video? What China, how they might be analyzing that video?

How Russia is analyzing that video. How that affects our national stability in this country.

Screw you're trying to, in my opinion, start a Colour Revolution!

Screw that. Let's just talk about, how's this make us stronger with national defense.

You call people into a private room and say that. Like has always been done in the United States of America.

What you did has never been done in the United States.

Not at the time of the Civil War even. Never has this been done!

Why?

Because people respected the republic. They respected the military.

They respected the fact that their voice would be heard by foreigners. And foreign nations. Many of them, adversaries.

And so they showed just a modicum of -- of restraint. That you, sir, couldn't find.

So please, don't preach to me about how embarrassing it is that he's putting a cartoon out. Yeah. I would rather have my secretary of war not put cartoons out. But unfortunately, that's the way of the world now, isn't it?

I mean, you know, you can only get attention by people doing stupid memes. You didn't need a meme. You didn't need a video.

You needed all of you, to get together, and say, we would like the Joint Chiefs to meet us at the Capitol.

Because they also answer to us. And we have a few things to say to them.

And then you say to them privately. And you make it very, very clear.

That's what you should have done.

I mean, unless you're trying to collapse the United States, make our enemies stronger. And foment a Colour Revolution. Which I'm not sure -- what?

Colour Revolution. I'm not even sure what that means.

Country Music star John Rich reveals shocking truth about child predator epidemic

Country music singer John Rich joins Glenn Beck to expose the staggering reality of America’s child predator epidemic, a crisis far larger and darker than most parents realize. With 36 million online targeting reports in a single year and less than 1% of trafficked children ever returning home, Rich argues that parents can no longer be passive; predators, platforms, and cultural forces have infiltrated homes through screens, games, and social media. From demonic networks preying on kids to entertainment giants openly bragging about shaping young minds, this conversation delivers a wake-up call: if American parents don’t go on offense now, the wolves will keep winning.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: It's called the Righteous Hunter, and John Rich is with us now. Hey, John, how are you, man?

JOHN: I'm great, brother. It's been a long time since I had the pleasure of talking to you. So thanks for having me on.

GLENN: I know. You bet. So, first of all, what a great song. Powerful, powerful video. Really powerful. Why did you do this?

JOHN: So I'm a dad. I'm sure there are a lot of moms and dads, listening to you today. I know there are.

And when I started realizing the extent of child predators in the networks they have, in America, I was so overwhelmed by it. I couldn't believe the numbers. The Department of Homeland Security told me that in a 12-month period, they received 36 million reports of -- of kids being targeted online by child sex predators. I said, 36 million?

They said, yes. It's over three million a month. It is so huge and so massive, that regular parents, even Christian parents, patriotic parents, you know, the ones that pay attention, even we can become victims of these people. They are that tricky, that illusive, that demonic.

So that led to me writing the song. I'm sick and tired of us sitting around, hoping they don't get our kids next. You know, it tells us in the Bible, to go on the offense when you're a parent. You're supposed to not just defend, but go on defense.

You know there's a wolf in the front yard, you go out there and handle the wolf.

And that's how I look at these predators.
So The Righteous Hunter, that song was born from that thought.

GLENN: You know, you say, it can even hit us.

I've only told this story once before. But my son, when he was probably hmm. Fourteen.

He was playing on a PlayStation.

And it's, you 1 o'clock in the morning.

And the phone rings.

And we were lucky enough at that time, to have land lines. And the -- and we had multiple lines.

And it rang once. And then it hung up. And my wife was like, what was that?

And I said, I don't know. And then it bothered her so much.

She stayed awake. And she watched the lines. She saw line two light up.

She's like, somebody is on the phone.

And we went up.

We found out that my son was on the phone with a gamer. And we called the FBI. And my son was freaking out. He's like, Dad, he's just a normal kid. Blah, blah. Called the FBI.

They do an investigation. He was an adult. He was working at let's just say a major amusement park in the Los Angeles, Orange County area.

JOHN: Hmm.

GLENN: And was as the FBI agent told us, this is the way it happens, you don't see it. It's in the middle of the night. They had just caught somebody who had just -- in our general area, just caught somebody whose daughter was taken. And taken across state lines. And they said, you know, they just said, hey. We'll send you an airline ticket. Just come and visit us.

And, you know, it didn't turn out well. And they caught that person as well. But that doesn't happen all the time. You usually don't catch it. We were really blessed.

JOHN: Yeah. The stats are that less than 1 percent of kids who -- who wind up being trafficked are ever returned to their parents. This video that you're talking about, that I shot. I had to take some time to think about it.

I wrote this song almost a year ago. And it is such a disturbing subject. But I knew it was written for a reason. It was written to make parents wake up. It was written to make predators hopefully shake in fear from the wrath of God and the American parent. Because I don't think they have any fear. I know they don't have any fear of God. But they need to fear us.

So I took a lot of time shooting it. In this video, Glenn. There's a reenactment of adults, purchasing children in somebody's house.

GLENN: Yeah.

JOHN: Which is accurate because we had -- we had actual supervision in the room, from people who would do this for a living.

They would sting these people. They set them up.

They arrest them. We had them in the room to make sure everything they did was accurate. I urge people to watch it. As hard as it is for people to watch it, you need to look at it.

GLENN: Was the girl who was returned, was that just off the top of your head?

Was that just a hope or a true story?

In the video.

JOHN: There are kids who get returned. But it's less than 1 percent. Less than 1 percent, Glenn. I mean, that is --

GLENN: I can't imagine.

JOHN: That's unacceptable. When there's tens of millions of moms and dads who would go to the ends of the earth to get them. But less than 1 percent get them back. It is one of the most horrific blights, sins existing in the world today. I would say the most.

I mean, Jesus himself. Probably the most aggressive thing the son of God ever said.

STU: Oh, yeah.

JOHN: Is that you would be better off dead, than to hurt one of these kids. A millstone around your neck, as we know this phrase.

GLENN: Yeah. Did Sean Combs and what he was going through, play a role into bringing you this message?

JOHN: Sean Combs. You talking about Diddy?

GLENN: Yeah.

JOHN: Yeah. Well, I saw a video of him, about a year ago, on stage at some award show. And he looked right into the camera, and he said, I own your kids. I determine what they listen to. What they wear. What they think is cool.

I'll take your souls. He looks at the camera, with this demonic look in his eye. And proclaims this to American parents. And, you know, music is his weapon. Sean Combs and the industry, a lot of them, they use their music as a weapon to steal our sons and daughters, as the song says. To take them from us. To wreck their lives. To veer them off the path that God has intended for them to live.

They use their music to do it. And I was so enraged when I saw that demoniac say that with such arrogance. And we know the devil is the most arrogant creature ever created.

I said, oh, let Sean Comb's music, it's his weapon. Well, music is my weapon as well.

So I will write something. Let Sean combs. And the rest of the Sean combs of the world know, how the American parent feels about it. And what we're willing to do to protect our kids.

Because I don't think you guys are really aware of that.

And so that's -- that's where the song came from. I went to Sean Ryan.

A lot of people know Sean Ryan from his podcast. I asked him. He played the dad from the video. This is not a guy that will do music videos. I thought he would say, I appreciate it. But no.

But he said yes!

So Shawn Ryan is playing the dad, and it's his daughter being reenacted that's been taken.

GLENN: Well, it's very -- very powerful.

Let me ask you. What is the -- you know, I was thinking about what TikTok is here in America. And what TikTok is in China.

And TikTok in China is all positive.

It's all positive.

It's all kids doing amazing things. Et cetera, et cetera.

Because they know it's good for society. Here, they perverted it. Went the other direction.

What is it about our society that is attracted to stuff like this?

Why do we consume this garbage?

JASON: I think we have been programmed for decades, you know this. Programmed little by little by little.

Things that were shocking in the '80s, now would be rated PG. Things that were shocking even ten years ago, now you can click on it, and watch it on TikTok.

Degree by degree, they have come further and further into the -- the households of Americans. And conditioned those kids and parents, to just consider it normal.

And that's the trick. That's the deception.

That's why you have 36 million reports in one year in DHS alone. Of kids being targeted online.

Listen, this road is not just to yell into the void.

It's not just, hey. All these predators. We see you.

Yeah. That's part of it.

But bigger. The bigger point of parents watching video.

And the whole thing, by the way, is posted at John Rich on X. That's just at the top of my page, if you want to watch it.

The bigger point is that American parents start looking into their kids' devices. They go online. And figure out how to safeguard against this stuff. Don't let them in your house. Listen you wouldn't let a predator come through your front door, or play glass window in the middle of the night.

He would be met with gunfire. He would die! Inside your home, if he tried to take one of your kids. But we sit here. As we're following up on our emails or whatever we're doing. And our kids are off in the bedroom, they could be getting taken by Roblox.

GLENN: Big time.

JOHN: I mean, all these innocuous games that seem like nothing. These predators are coming in and posing as a kid and doing what you said in that story earlier, and they're very successful at it. We've got to stop that. Parents have to go on the offense. And it starts inside of your own home.

GLENN: Well, the one thing that you could do is cancel Meta. Make sure you don't have Meta. I don't know if you know this.

But Meta, if you were an account that engaged in trafficking of humans for sex, Meta doesn't believe in three strikes and you're out. They believe in 17 strikes and you're out.

Seventeen chances!

I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know what parent that would agree with that.

JOHN: Well, no parent agrees with that.

GLENN: No.

JOHN: But listen, we're up against an Army.

Battalions. Legions of demons in this world.

They are there. They possess people. Just like you and I are possessed by the Holy Spirit.

Because we gave our lives to Jesus Christ.

We're possessed by him. We're possessed by the Holy Spirit.

They're possessed by the spirit of their father. And it's an actual straight-up war.

If you think about it. What probably puts the most tears down the cheeks of Jesus Christ.

When you --

GLENN: Children.

JOHN: When you hurt the kids. Yes. Absolutely.

That's their motive. If they can derail the kids. They think they can win. But we can't let that happen.

Tennessee Special Election is a MASSIVE Wake-Up Call for Republicans Ahead of 2026 Midterms

A Tennessee district that voted for Trump by 22 points is suddenly a 2-point race, and the warning signs for Republicans couldn’t be clearer. With a strong GOP candidate, a weak progressive Democrat, and a deep-red electorate, this race should be a blowout. Instead, low turnout and December timing have turned a safe seat into a dangerous toss-up. What happens here could preview 2026 and whether the GOP is ready, or already slipping.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Well, it's an interesting day in Tennessee.

There is an election going on today in Tennessee.

And it's kind of an important one. Because this is a -- this is a district that, you know, went to Trump by 22 points.

And the Democrats are not spending as much money as the Republicans are, which kind of tells you go. We better not lose this one.

Stu. Welcome.

STU: Yeah. It's an interesting one, Glenn. Seventh congressional district in Tennessee. And it is a race, as you point out, that should be very, very friendly to Republicans.

This should not be what they have to worry about. As you noted, a 22-point margin for Donald Trump, in 2024. And this race is going on because of a representative who stepped down and took a job with the private sector.

And so right off the bat, you know, the important part of right now, is the fact that the Republicans have a very small majority in the House. They came in with a small majority. So losing any representatives is a big deal. They've had to deal with a few months of this going on and on. They have to defend this seat.

The two in the race, Matt Van Epps is the Republican.

He is -- you know, you never know in one of these cases. When you have a bright red district, sometimes you get a candidate that is not very good.

Sometimes you get a candidate, you know, where you kind of get a crazy person who wins the primary. Does not seem to be the case here at all.

Matt Van Epps is a West Point graduated, a decorated helicopter pilot. He is seemingly a fiscal conservative, does not seem to be some crazy person with lots of wild tweets or anything like that. He seems to be a --

GLENN: Hasn't been on an island, Epstein or otherwise.

STU: I don't think so. Has avoided all pedophile islands, which is great. Really want -- even peninsulas. He doesn't even go anywhere that has the word pedophile on it. He's stayed away from it, which is fantastic.

GLENN: Yeah, that's great. That's great.

STU: That would be the type of risk that you might have, in a situation like this.

Where you have a fringy type candidate.

He does not seem to be that.

Also, when you look at the Republican side of the aisle, sometimes you get a candidate who is like super Trumpy. And maybe the old school conservatives aren't on board with it. Or you get an anti-Trump Republican that runs, and Trump won't stores endorsed.

It doesn't seem that either of those have happened. This is a guy that the club for growth seems to like.

And Trump has endorsed and rallied for.

So you have --

GLENN: Okay.

STU: They didn't blow this. Like, they didn't go in this with like, okay.

We're super confident. Seems to have handled this relatively competently. The other thing. And you kind of noted a little bit of this. Which is interesting. Is they saw this coming.

They were worried about this from the beginning. And decided to actually spend money on this race. Which sometimes, again, can be a problem.

Sometimes, they're like, we have this 22 points, we don't need to do anything.

Democrat comes in. Spends tons of money, and the Republican loses somehow. That didn't happen here. Republicans have spent I think over $3 million. The Democrats spend about two.

Again, they have both been spending.

This is an important race. The Republicans actually spent some cash in this race.

GLENN: Because if the Democrat wins, it's a one point majority?

STU: One, two. There's a bunch of seats in flux. It's very close, to put it that way. You can't lose seats right now. To the extent, the House majority, it's not completely out of the question, they could lose this before 2026.

GLENN: Oh, my gosh.

STU: With a couple of weird moments happening with -- again, most of these congressmen are over 96 years old, so you never what's going to happen. Retirements. A lot of these people in purple districts are looking at 2026 and are saying, I'm not going to win. So maybe I just bail now, and take a private sector job.

I don't think they will lose the majority because of that. But it is an outlier possibility in this case.

So you look at this race, and the other part about this is, do the Democrats poll a candidate who is great?

Every once in a while, you get a candidate, you know, a military member on the Democratic side who is a smooth talker and can talk to the average person.

Even though, they're a Democrat. And they don't sound like a lunatic.

GLENN: Tulsi Gabbard, that the Democrats would actually like.

STU: Right. Someone they didn't eject out of the party immediately, when they started making sense.

GLENN: Right. There's fewer and fewer of them. But they might still exist somewhere.

I'm not entirely unsure that unicorns don't exist. So it might have.

STU: Did they pull a unicorn. The answer to that does seem to be a flat no.

What they pulled was Aftyn Behn, which this is a candidate running who is seemingly more on, like, the kind of AOC side of the Democratic Party. Not someone who is going to relate to the average person.

Now, she's had a couple of moments, that have made some news as this race has gone on. And she -- this is -- let me give you cut three, first.

This is 2020, a podcast clip of one of her podcast clips of her, that has been resurfaced during this campaign, talking about the area she actually would be representing.

VOICE: Because I hate this city. I hate the bachlorettes. I hate the pedal taverns. I hate country music. I hate all of the things that make Nashville.

STU: So, again, suboptimal, Glenn. You would prefer --

GLENN: That's really kind of a hard thing. It's kind of like saying, I want to represent the part -- or the district, you know, of Orlando, where Walt Disney World is, but I hate Disney.

STU: I hate Disney. I hate talking mice. I don't like dogs without pants on. It's like, generally speaking --

GLENN: Right. I can understand. I don't like Vegas, but Vegas likes Vegas. You know, the states like Vegas. It's really an important thing. I mean, if you happen to have a store or, you know, country music and the stores and the -- you know, the honky-tonks and all that stuff, that's what makes Nashville a destination.

STU: Right. That's the thing.

GLENN: If you want to get rid of that, you're going to not do good things for the economy, just saying.

STU: I mean, Glenn, you and I both know people who live and work in Nashville. They're -- it's not an uncommon sentiment for people to be frustrated about the bachelorette parties and the pedal taverns and the things that go on downtown. It's wild. It's Nash-Vegas, right? It is wild. And it can be that way.

GLENN: Yes. Yes. Yes.

STU: And if you're a resident, there is some of that, that is somewhat common to the area. Though, saying that you hate the city when you're trying to represent the city. Is not necessarily optimal. I would say suboptimal. And I would say it's the economy. Right? It is -- if you hate that, if you're fighting against it, you're fighting against thousands and thousands of jobs, you're fighting against millions of dollars that are coming in.

That's not a great look. Even if you believe it, it's of type of thing that a consultant would correctly advise you to not say when you're running for office.

GLENN: In today's world, that might be the exact right thing to say, the things that consultants say, "Don't ever say that."

STU: Yeah, I think in this case, I would shy away from the city.

GLENN: I would too. I would too.

STU: You know, the other part of this is, we saw much, much worse out of Zohran Mamdani, and he won.

GLENN: Uh-huh.

STU: But he won a Democrat plus-20 city. This is a Republican plus 20 type of district. So probably not the approach you want to take. There is another one that is going on. You know, again, she's trying -- she's very much a progressive. But, of course, trying to message herself, as someone who can work across party lines. That's what you need to do as a Democrat to win in a Republican plus 20 district. That just means Republicans will win by 20 points, typically, on a typical cycle. Here is a 2023 political forum with that debate, talking about her ability to work across the aisle.

VOICE: You cannot work with these people. Working across the aisle has rarely been effective in the last ten years. Okay.

So what we need to do, one, we need to continue organizing external pressures in the Republican super majority, which is exactly what happened in April, when students and teachers came together and forced their frustration, and force Governor Lee to call a special session.

STU: So, again --

GLENN: Okay.

STU: -- suboptimal, probably if you're trying to present yourself that way, which is what she's tried to do.

She's tried to present herself -- her messaging and ads is like affordability. And can you believe these Republicans won't release the Epstein files?

It's like, your party had control of everything for four years, and didn't do this.

You are aware of that, right?

GLENN: And you noticed, as soon as they were released, how the Democrats just went completely silent.

STU: Right.

GLENN: Like Epstein files, no. There's nothing there. What are you talking about? So stupid.

STU: In polls, though, people want the Epstein files out. And that kind of goes across party lines. All of this basically set up to say, the Republicans didn't seem to blow this, with any of their decisions.

The Democrats didn't pick some generational talent to come into this race. And this is a race where you would say, normal times, maybe the Republicans win by 20 points.

The polling has not shown that. And nobody expects the Republicans to win this race by 20 points. That's kind of the bad news. A lot of the polling leading -- and it's -- it's a special election. To give you a quick outlier on that. Quick explaining on that. These races are weird. It's December. It's not an Election Day.

No one knows what the turnout is going to look like. It's a very strange, off-year, special election, anything can happen in these. And there's not a lot of polling to tell us what will happen.

GLENN: Yeah. And the really bad thing about this is, you know, you live in a place like this.

It will happen. And you're just so busy with everything else. You just don't even realize, oh, that was yesterday.

I was going to vote! You know what I mean?

STU: We talked about this. We talked about this yesterday in the meeting before the show. And we said, oh, that Tennessee election is going on. Oh, jeez. That's the one with the crazy lady.

It's out of our mind. We just came off of Thanksgiving weekend. I have no idea what the turnout will be on this.

And that is a real concern --

GLENN: Right. And the ones that win are the ones that can turn their base out. And if you have a democratic socialist. If you have somebody who can take these guys and hold them back, you're going to get your people out.

They will be motivated. Because they'll know, it won't take a lot of us to throw this election.

Just hoping that the tell me can -- or, the Republicans in -- in Nashville understand what they're up against today.

STU: It's a great point. If you're a democratic socialist, and you live in this district, there's no way you're not showing up.

You're going to be there. The question are the Republicans, the typical people who will win this race, going to be there?

GLENN: My guess is no. My guess is no.

Yeah. Twenty-two points, you're like, that will be fine.

STU: Every -- every indicator that we have, and I will say, there's not a lot of those indicators. Because it's lightly polled. And it's a weird time.

Every indicator that we have shows that some of those people that would typically come out and vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election, or a senator in Tennessee, are not going to show up for this election, like every indicator we have.

The polling leading up in a couple -- the couple months leading up to this showed typically Van Epps, the Republican, with a high single digits lead. So not a 22-point lead, which you would expect. More like eight or nine. That's still a victory. And it won't change the balance of the House and everything else.

GLENN: If they show up.

STU: If they show up.

Here's the bigger worry. And this is where you get really scared.

The last poll, the only one that we have that is very recent in the last few days, came out from Emerson. And Emerson is a pretty good pollster.

Did well on Trump.

They had this race as a two-point race.

Two!

GLENN: Jeez.

STU: The Republicans still winning.

But a two-point race. If you happen to be in this district, if you know somebody who is in this district, if you have someone who you know who is like, I think I will vote Republican. But we will win anyway. I wouldn't worry about it. Might be worth a phone call today.

Because if that poll is right, and I don't know that it is.

But if it's that close, this is a massively dangerous thing. To be clear, to say this in advance. So I can't take it back later. Would be completely catastrophic if they lost this race.

It's a special election. So there's asterisks around it.

The idea of what this points to in 2026.