RADIOMay 05, 2022

Why Putin may be ‘MORE LIKELY’ to use nukes against Ukraine

Author and former Navy SEAL Jack Carr knows a little something about Russia. With several published thriller novels that focus on geopolitical issues, he’s certainly done his research. So, he joins Glenn to war-game possible scenarios from the current situation in Ukraine. He explains why Putin’s original drive to invade Ukraine may have been to grow his military; plus, Carr explains the reason why Putin may be ‘a little more likely’ to use nukes: ‘[Russia is] an animal in a corner and it’s fight or flight…they’re in survival.’

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: All right. Jack Carr is with us. Hello, jack, how are you?

JACK: Great. Thank you for having me on. I really appreciate it.

GLENN: You bet. I can't wait. How excited are you for terminal list to come out with, Pratt?

JACK: Well, I'm fired up. Because they could really take your material, and do anything they want with it, which is why they usually like to get rid of the authors right away, yelling, you've ruined my vision.

But having been involved from the get-go, and Amazon was so supportive. And I think we got what all that people talk about, being woke. All that out there. It will be very refreshing for people between New York and Los Angeles. I think we crushed it, and Chris certainly did, Glenn. Maybe Bill Sniper. James Race. Angelon Coop (all phonetic) was the director. I mean, everybody came together. And it is dark, it is gritty, it is violent, it is authentic. And they do not set the bar.

GLENN: What an endorsement. It's dark. It's gritty. It's violent. You're going to love it.

All right. So, Jack, I wanted to have you on. Because something feels wrong with this Russia/Ukraine situation. And it seems like everybody is preparing -- if I were a fiction writer, I would be looking at all of these things that are hang. And I would say, yeah. I'm just doing a little foreshadowing. They're starting to build up for war. They're letting people know. I'm letting the reader know.

It just seems like they're going places, that I don't think would be a good place to go. As a fiction writer, and somebody who lives in this world, and I -- and I love talking to fiction writers, especially about geopolitical things.

Because you can't write things that don't make sense. Because nobody would believe it.

So you have to be based in reality. As a fiction writer. Where do you think we're going?

JACK: Well, if I had written what's actually happening in the world today. Whether it's Russia. Ukraine. The girl from Afghanistan.

Whether it's our own country right here. If I had written these things ten years ago. It wouldn't be a political thriller. It would go into the dystopian category. Perhaps even the science fiction category.

GLENN: Ten years ago, I think if you would have written what's happening today, ten years ago, you would have been laughed at. I mean, nobody would buy the book. And I think people would go, that's ridiculous. It would never happen.

GLENN: Exactly. This could never happen in this country.

This is too unrealistic. That's what the reviews on Amazon would say. But these things are happening. In fact, when we look at just Ukraine and Russia, I mean, it didn't take -- you didn't have to be a genius. You didn't have to be a geopolitical strategist. To look at it.

Apply some common sense, to NATO, Ukraine, and Russia, and predict what was going to happen. My second book, True Believer, I have a -- I have a false flag type of an operation to get Russia to invade Ukraine, as part of the story line.

And I just studied the situation, and needed to figure out how to make that happen. And lo and behold, that has happened. But the research that I did, that really -- you could see that coming, because of the decline of the ethnic Russian population since the end of the Cold War. And really, they could only field an army, up to about 20 -- 2022, and then they were either going to have to invade Ukraine. But then that has the largest population of ethnic Russians, outside of Russia. So for our senior level leaders, not to come to that same conclusion, after looking at it, with a little bit of common sense, is -- it shouldn't be shocking. But it is.

Because we rely on those leaders to make those good, strategic decisions. And they've proven time and time again, they're incapable of doing so.

GLENN: So wait a minute.

So you say, the reason they're having a hard time is, they don't -- they think get more troops. And you're saying, that that's one of the reasons why you think they invaded Ukraine. So they could have ethnic Russians to fight.

JACK: That's right. So just looking at those -- at those numbers, and that's -- you really have two generations of ethnic Russians, being a population that can sustain a military, and in much smaller numbers, past 2022.

So in 2014, Peter Zeihan wrote a book, called The Accidental Superpower, which looks at geography, demographics, in world history, when it comes to the nation states and the world powers.

And that's the conclusion he came to in that book. Which is one of the things I used in that second novel. But there are, of course, supporting factors. But that's a big one.

And that also ties into the nuclear question.

Because if you have someone who believes that their population, their country is not going to be around, in two generations, and they can't even field an army, past right about now. Well, it makes using maybe a taxable nuclear weapon, at least threaten to do so.

But maybe even using it, a little more likely. Because they're an animal in a corner, and it's fight or flight, and it's survival. It's not -- they don't look at it, as an option. As we do, do this. We don't do this. Hey, if we don't do this, we're dead anyway.

So we have to put ourselves in the enemy's shoes, and to anticipate what they're going to do. And we continually do not do that in this country, for whatever reason.

GLENN: I have to tell you, that's some of the best commentary I've heard on what's happening in Ukraine, already. And we've been talking to you, in just a couple of minutes. I haven't heard any of that. I've heard about the lack of military.

But I have no idea that we knew this from the gets go.

So when you have this situation. And you have Putin. I'm sure you've done enough research, just for your own novels. On Putin. And how things work over there.

A couple of questions. First, they think he's sick. May have cancer. They're saying, that maybe he's going under the knife. And will be, you know, under. And they don't know how long he will be incapacitated. If I'm Putin, I'm wondering if I'm going to be safe when they put me out. Or if they might accidentally turn that knob up a little bit.

GLENN: Oh, yes. This was something in the Cold War, that was at the forefront of senior level Russian official's minds, when they had to go under the knife, when they had to be put under. And they had security in those rooms. Not just because of an assassination or something along those lines by doctors. And the CIA payroll. Or arrival in the political or military space. But because coming out of that anesthesia. So when they're coming out of that, there's a certain time period within where you're not lucid. You know what that feels like. You're coming out of that. And, well, maybe a doctor on the CIA payroll can ask you a few questions at that point in time. And filter that back to the CIA. So that was something in the Cold War, that was at the forefront when any of those guys would have to go under the knife for a medical procedure. So I am sure that Putin is thinking about that. And of course, he knows his history betters than we do.

History in Russia. It's not infrequent, when we look at world history.

So I'm sure that he's thinking about that. And surrounding himself with people he thinks are trustworthy, to ensure that he's either not killed during that time frame, or is not asked questions during that time frame about his strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine, or the rest of the world, or his intent to use or not use nuclear weapons.

GLENN: Could you have any idea who would replace him. Let's say he ties on the table.

Do you have any idea?

JACK: I do not. There's always a military leader waiting in the wings, it seems. But who that is, I'm not sure.

And, you know, in these situations, or just when you're looking at authoritarian dictatorships. Orthopedic -- or countries. Like that. Senior level leaders oftentimes are not getting the best information.

Because it is not healthy to bring that bad news to -- to a dictator. Because oftentimes, it's off with your head. Or off to the gulag. It's a strange position to be in. Obviously, with our war in Iraq.

Where he actually did have a capability. That he did not.

And Putin is probably in that same position.

GLENN: Do you -- what do you make of their -- the story -- it came out, I think yesterday. Pictures of what they call the Flying Kremlin. It's a plane, that they haven't seen it in the air, I think since 2010 or 2011.

And it's been flying around Russia. And it is the -- the nuclear plane. Something needs to go on.

You know, air force one. That everything can be run from that plane, in case of a nuclear war.

Do you think that's just telling that --

JACK: Yeah. That seems interesting. I didn't see that story. But oftentimes, these things are done to send a message. And they might -- just to say, hey, we have this capabilities. And to get to us take or not take a certain -- a certain action. So for Putin to say, he's moving nuclear weapons into a certain position. Well, they're probably already there. Or this plane is flying around. If the Russian military. If their capabilities are what we've seen in Ukraine, thus far.

Then we overestimate it, as did a lot of those generals, probably because they didn't want to get their heads lopped off by saying, they weren't as capable as they've been projecting or advertising. But flying a plane like that is probably the same -- the same thing as, hey, we're moving nuclear weapons into a nuclear position. Just in case we need to use them. So that sends a message to the left, to discontinue support of Ukraine, or get us to take a certain action.

GLENN: So how serious do you think this nuke thing is?

I -- you know, we've all grown up, you know, without this fear of nukes. I grew up in the time. You might have too.

Where, you know, we feared what Russia might do. And then it went away. And now, our -- are we really that close to some sort of a nuclear explosion, on -- on earth?

JACK: I mean, the first question is, and I did grow up during the time as well. We thought it was the end of the Cold War. That our main threat now is the proliferation of some of these weapons, going to rotation states. Or super empowered individuals. Or terrorist organizations, or that sort of a thing. But now we're back with a state-on-state, nation-on-nation conflict.

GLENN: Do you think it's serious?

JACK: Well, first the question would have to be, do they have the capabilities?

And the answer to that question is yes. They have about 6,000 both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Strategic mean they're gigantic and fly towards us.

Tactical means, they use them on the battlefield, a lot smaller. But still huge, when comparing the two. Something like Hiroshima or Nagasaki, something like that.

But we have a lot less. Nuclear weapons, it doesn't really matter. You know, 1,000 here, 1,000 there.

But when we add all of NATO's nuclear weapons and Russia's, it's about the same. Give or take. It's just shy of 6,000, when we add all of the nuclear weapons to Russia's.

But in this case, it's interesting. If they did do something like that, we have this China. That side. So it makes it a lot harder for China to support Russia, if Russia uses even a tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield.

So that's an interesting kind of connection here. Because China is right now, Russia's greatest ally. Militarily, trade-wise. And they have -- they have a lot of incentives to stay connected. And using a nuclear weapon would make it a lot more difficult.

GLENN: We're talking to Jack Carr, the fiction writer, the author of In The Blood, which is out right now.

Also one of his other books, The Terminal List is coming out soon, on Netflix.

As a -- as a series, with Chris Pratt. We'll continue our conversation here, in 60 seconds.

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GLENN: So I just want to war game one more thing with you.

And that is China. You know, I was just reading something. I can't remember where I read it this morning.

But some analysis that -- that the American dollar is going to lose its reserve currency status. You know, in the -- in the coming days, months, years. Whenever.

And China is making a move, to basically have a -- a multi--- or bipolar-powered world.

If we -- Japan looks like it's falling apart, economically.

We're not doing so great. Europe is not doing so great. There's a war going on. If this thing spirals out of control, what's to stop China from taking Taiwan, and then just gobbling the world?

JACK: Right. So they're obviously looking very closely at what was going to happen with Ukraine and Russia. That that didn't happen as fast as most of our strategic level thinkers, leaders, talking heads, anticipated, which was about three, four days. Russia is going to roll through Ukraine. And a lot of that is due to Zelinsky. And I'm still curious as to why Russia did not decapitate that government ahead of time. Take out the leader first. And I think it's because they thought, oh, this was just an actor, like Ronald Reagan, before -- as he first started into politics.

And they just -- they just counted how he could galvanize both his country, and the world, against Russia. So I think that was a strategic level mistake. And they should have anticipated that one.

And we thought the same thing. We offered him refuge. We said, we'll take you out of the country. The way that was asked. And the way that was talked about. It was so casual. It seems as though, we thought, oh, for sure, the leader of the country, will pick up and go. And Russia probably thought the same went thing.

But that did not happen. And now we have the situation we have now. It's actually a war of attrition. And we'll see how that -- how that ends up.

But China and currency, that is a major play here. And a major component of this. That no one is talking about. So I'm glad you are. And China can look at things obviously. They look in decades. They look in centuries. We look at things in a four-year election cycle. Maybe eight years for the real deep thinkers among us. But China can take a breath. And they can see what happened in Ukraine. They can take a breath on Taiwan. And they can -- and they can look at this long-term. And that is the advantages, that they have over us. They have their problems too. They have population problems. One-child policy and coming to fruition. They have lockdowns. Mandates.

A lot of issues to deal with as well, internally. But they can deal with those issues, and take a breath on the strategic front, because we're doing a pretty good job of destroying ourselves from the inside right now. So A little strategic patience on their part really plays into their hands.

GLENN: Talking to Jack Carr.

The author of In the Blood. And The Terminal List, which is coming out on Netflix soon.

I own the Paramount Studios here in Dallas. It was an old movie lot, back in the '80s. And I have some of -- I have an old ship, that was used in a mini-series back in the '80s. And it was Winds of War. You're really now in the best time to be a writer. Because now these movies can be made in episodes. And they don't bastardize the book usually.

JACK: Wow. That's amazing that you have. And I've been there in Chad Prather's show. And I've been there. It was amazing.

GLENN: Let me know next time you're here. I'll take you on a tour. And show you the school stuff that you have.

JACK: Thank you. You have a lot of amazing things there. And that's an incredible book. And if more people read that and willing to remember that, that was their gateway into non-fiction. Studying history. Hopefully a finals lesson going forward in wisdom, we would all be in a better place.

GLENN: Jack Carr, In the Blood is out right now. And coming soon, The Terminal List to Netflix. Please, Jack, let me know next time you're in town. I would love to take you on a quick tour.

God bless you.

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Meet the pro-Intifada candidate NYC Democrats just elected

New York City Democrats just elected 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani, a "socialist Muslim", as the Party's candidate for mayor. But Glenn Beck argues that his radical beliefs are actually communist and Islamist.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

VOICE: Z10852. Something weird is going on. The World Trade Center is on fire.

VOICE: Seriously the top of the building. We're trying to get information.

VOICE: Top level of one of the --

VOICE: To unfold from New York City.

VOICE: A plane crashed just --

VOICE: My sister is in that believe. I hope she's okay. I have to come to New York.

VOICE: It's pandemonium.

VOICE: It's raining papers.

VOICE: Wait a minute! Stop just a second. Why are we -- why are we -- I've got breaking news. Breaking news, yesterday. New York City just elected as their mayoral candidate for the left. And the Democrats, a -- a Muslim radical, who is also a communist!

So, you know, it only took you 25 years. It only took you 25 years, New York, to go completely insane.

Somebody who is -- well, I mean, if I might quote Michael malice today. I am old enough to remember when New Yorkers endured 9/11 instead of voting for it.

But you've got a -- you've got a communist jihadist apologist now.

Who was -- you know, well, CAIR put $100,000 behind his bid for New York City mayor.

So you have somebody who is endorsed by CAIR. That's really good.

He also was somebody who said, you know, he was -- he was for the shooting of the United Health Care CEO.

Said he was looking forward to driving down magnum Joan avenue. I don't know. Sounds like supporting people in the streets. Maybe it's just me.

Then he also said that he was going to globalize the intifada, which I think that's -- maybe -- maybe that's just me.

I mean, what do I know?

Tim Miller who is a podcaster. Asked him a few weeks ago. Asked him about his pro Palestinian slogan. Globalized the intifada. And he said, for me, ultimately, what I hear in so many, is a desperate desire for equality and equal rights, in standing up for Palistinian human rights. Oh, is that what you hear, Mr. CAIR?

Really? Huh, that's interesting.

Right. So globalize the intifada.

I mean, I mean, sure, that's -- I mean well, let me go on.

Because I don't want to take him out of context.

He then delved into the semantics of the intifada, citing the United States Holocaust memorial museum's use of a word for a translation for uprising, in an Arabic version of an article, a museum published about the Warsaw ghetto.

Oh!

So this is just a comparison, about the -- the armed rebellion against the Nazis!

I don't know if that makes me feel better!

I mean, if we're globalizing that.

We're the Nazis in this scenario.

Because I don't think it's the Palestinians.

I certainly don't think it's anybody who is like, hey.

Global jihad. I don't think it's those guys.

Or the Nazis. Who are the Nazis in that?

And it seems, if that's what you mean, then it's not just a harmless kind of slogan about human rights. It is a call for violence on the streets.

Because I don't know if you know, that's what happened when the Jews had their uprising against the Nazis.

I'm just saying!

But, hey, hey, free Palestine.

Oh, that's not what that means, gang. That is not what that means, but don't worry about it. He's just going to be possibly the new mayor.

And that's great. By the way, the Columbia faculty members signed a letter defending Hamas.

They were also among the donors to his mayoral campaign.

So, you know, you don't have anything to worry about.

And his father, who used to work at Columbia. Do you know, Stu?

Is his Dad -- is he still a professor at Columbia University?

He said that -- this violent terror thing of Islam, is not a part of Islam. Now, I've read the Koran, and much of the hadith.

And I'm pretty sure the violence is a part of that. But no.

No. This is something entirely new.

And his father while at Columbia university, wanted everybody to know, that this is actually -- this is something that came out of America!

America is really responsible for this.

And, you know, it really started with the Reagan administration, you know, when he started -- when he started with his very religious terms, to finish the war against the evil empire.

So, you know, that's where -- that's where 9/11 came from.

Is what -- don't worry about it! Don't worry about it!

Because who am I? I'm clearly just -- am I an anti-Semite today, or am I an Islamophobic? I can't remember which one.

Oh, it's probably both. Anyway, Islamophobia. Let me just explain Islamophobia. I haven't even gotten to the Communist part of it. Which is really, really -- New York, you're in one for hell of a ride. Buckle up.

It will be a fun rollercoaster for you. My gosh, I've never been happier that I've been away are if New York.

Anyway, I just want I to know, there is Islam. And then there is Islamists. Now, an Islamist is somebody who really wants Sharia law.

That's political Islam!

That's not a faith. That's political Islam.

Now, let me make really -- something really clear. Criticizing Islamism, is not Islamophobia. Pointing out the dangers of, oh. I don't know.

Political Islam. The ideology that seeks to use the tools of democracy, ultimately to destroy democracy, is not an attack on Muslims.

No. Uh-uh.

You know why?

Because Muslims are often the first people in line.

The first victims of the ideology.

So let's draw a bright, bright line between Islam as a faith, millions of people can practice that faithfully and peacefully.

It's mostly peaceful, okay?

Then there's the Islamism.

Islamism is something entirely -- that's a political project.

A theocratic political -- oh. Left loves theocracies. They love it.

Of course, you never see a problem with it.

See it when an Islamist is touting it. Anyway, it's not about prayer. It's not about fasting. It's not about spiritual life.

It's all about power. It's about merging of mosque and state. It's about implementing Sharia, not as a personal code of conduct. But as a governing legal system.

And it's -- it's supremacy.

Absolutely. Faith.

Religion.

It's -- there's one thing that's supreme.

It's misogynistic.

Deeply intolerant of all kinds of things.

Descent. Secularism. Other faiths. Even competing interpretations from inside the faith itself.

It will behead them too.

So let's -- let's be honest here for a second.

You know, CAIR should be labeled an international terror organization.

In my opinion. In my opinion.

Oh, does that make me -- that makes me an Islamophobe. I'm sure. I'm sure they will start a campaign against me on being an Islamophobe.

Stand in line, guys. You've been doing it since 2001, okay?

I don't really care. And I don't think the American people. I think that record, all the grooves are worn-out on that one, okay?

This is not a religion we're talking about. When we're talking about Sharia law. And we're talking about globalize the intifada. What does that mean, actually, to globalize it?

Does that mean we now want to do what is happening to Israel? All over the world?

Has the Palestinian plight become our plight you now, as Americans?

That there has to be an intifada here!

Because it's the kind of the same. You know. It's kind of the same over, you know, with what the Palestinians are going through.

Well, it's very much like what the Jews went through with the Nazis.

That's a weird one. That one makes my head hurt. It's very much the same as that. And very much the same as the fight against Donald Trump.

Oh, this is going to be fun. It's fun!

Really fun. You know, the irony here is, the ones that will scream Islamophobia the most, are the ones in the progressive left, the champions of feminism, LGBTQ rights. And secularism.

They're going to -- no. You want -- they're going to stand with the people, who want to kill them first.

See, this is how smart they are!

This is why it's going to work out well, in New York City.

Let me just say. If you have an ounce of common sense, you run a business, you have an ounce of wealth. And I don't mean wealth like, you know, hey, Lovey.

Let's get on the boat for a three-hour tour with a suitcase full of cash. I mean you saved anything, anything, get the hell out of New York City.

I mean, this is about survival. This is about free speech. This is about women's rights.
Religious pluralism. Secular legal systems. Liberal democracy.

But it's also about failed principles of Communism. Okay?

First, you have to call out political Islam for what it is. Okay?

And we have to do it with the clarity that we call out white nationalism.

Got to do it with that. Got to -- you know, the Klan. Really bad people.

Really bad people.

Anybody who is shouting for globalized intifada?

Pretty bad. Pretty bad people.

Okay?

Now, let's get to communism.

Because that's another cool, cool angle of the new Democratic candidate for -- for mayor of New York City.

That I just -- I think is cuddly and cute. Sure, it led to 100 million deaths. But this time, New York is going to be radically different. Oh, did I use the word radical?

I didn't mean to use that. What's radical about this guy?

Nothing. He's just like you!

Well, not exactly.

But let's talk about communism, next!

Now, the new mayoral candidate that's running there in New York City. That so many young people rushed to defend and vote for. He's promising free buses.

That's going to work out.

Where are you going to get the money for free buses.

It's free!

City-run grocery stores.

Oh, rent freezes. And finally somebody has done it. A 30-dollar minimum wage.

So under the banner of equity. And, you know, we will tax the wealthy. And the corporations. You know, we're going to squeeze another $10 billion out of them.

Really?

Because they're going to call a U-Haul.

You know, they will call something like U-Haul. There will be a lot of -- there will be a lot of movers that are like, how do I get the truck back from Texas or Florida back up to New York? Nobody is moving up there.

But he's going to do it.

Now, his vision isn't really new. You know, just -- just tax people, so we could have city-run grocery stores. You know, I remember -- I'm old enough to remember those city-run grocery stores in Moscow.

They were great.

The shelves were empty.

But that's just Moscow.

It worked out completely different in Venezuela.

Where, oh, no.

It didn't. That's right. The grocery store.

They were eating the zoo animals.

But it will be different in New York.

Because they have rent controls too.

And that will just choke the housing supply, but don't worry. As a young family.

You know, you voted for it.

You know better.

It will work this time.

So, you know, I like building ideas, I just don't like usually building on the graves of 100 million people.

But, you know, why not? Why not?

You know, use this dogma.

And this time, it will be different. It's not like it was in China. Where the great leap forward, was a gross -- a gross parody of progress. Venezuela, which was oil rich. One of the richest nations in the hemisphere now sees 90 percent of its population in poverty!

Yeah. Darn it. You know what they did?

They decided to take state control of things.

You know, like grocery stores. And it worked out well. How is that free busing working out in Venezuela?

I just want to -- I just want to know.

Anyway, then you've got the globalize the intifada. Which is going to drop a little violence in, and anti-Semitism in with your communism.

Which is weird!

Because violence and anti-Semitism, always happen. When it -- when it comes to -- when it comes to communism.

This is weird!

I've got to play something for you. Because this has talked about on me earlier this morning.

Oh, wow.

Wait a minute. This is -- this is the whole coalition coming together here.

So this is going to be good. New York, this is going to be great.

It's going to be great for you.

No. He's going to uplift you. Then the social fabric of New York City is just going to be -- just one.

It's going to be fantastic. Don't worry about your 120 billion dollars in debt. Or your 10 billion-dollar deficit that you have right now.

You are going to charge the rich more taxes, and they will stay right there.

They will be like, you know what, that 46 percent in taxes that I'm paying, this is just not enough. It's just not enough.

I need to pay 60 or 70 percent to be able to pay my fair share. So that's good. That's good. That's good.

You know, they're not risking 100 million people. It's just 8 million people.

This time, it's just 8 million people.

But, hey. For those of you in upstate New York. That aren't going to be part of this experiment.

Don't worry, you get to pay for it. Because they'll kick it up to the state. The state will have to subsidize everything. And don't you love it?

Really, don't you want to subsidize the really crazy ideas of New York City?

I mean, why don't you have a -- why don't you have a democratic socialist. A/k/a communist mayor.

Why haven't you done that? Are you not progressive enough? Are you not looking into the future?

Are you stuck in the past?

I don't know. I don't know. The graveyard is pretty big. I have a hard time getting past that one. You know, yeah, so I'm stuck in the past. Because I can't seem to pass that graveyard, and get to be down the path with you. But it's going to be a paradise.

Forget arithmetic. You know, or human nature. This time, it's going to work. It's going to work. So all right!

Wish I lived in this morning.

No wait. Nope. I don't. Nope, I don't.

And Ted Cruz, stop it. Stop writing, hey, come to Texas. No. No. Don't come to Texas. Don't come to Florida. Go to California. It's beautiful this time of year. Go there. Go there.